Visitor Voodoo. Bill Siegel. November 2015

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1 Visitor Voodoo Bill Siegel November 2015

2 Visitor Research: Voodoo Science? Three competing syndicated U.S. visitor studies. Different methodologies. Key results may differ dramatically.

4 Visitor Research: Voodoo Science? Compounded by changes in standard survey sampling methodology: Door-to-door. Telephone. Mail Panel. Now online.

5 Has This Created a Monster Dilemma for Clients?

6 VISITOR PROFILE

8 Methodology Largest ongoing survey of American travelers. Conducted quarterly since Online since Representative sample of American adults 18+.

9 2014 Sample 302,908 trips for analysis nationally: 206,720 overnight trips 96,188 day trips 10,494 trips for North Carolina: 6,914 overnight trips 3,580 day trips

10 Size & Structure of North Carolina s Travel Market

11 Size of North Carolina s Domestic Travel Market in 2014 Total Person-Trips = 141 Million Overnight Trips 40% 56.1 Million Day Trips 60% 84.9 Million

Millions of Trips 80 70 Longwoods 60 50 40 30

12 North Carolina Trip Estimates Total Trips 100 Longwoods = 141 Million TNS = 53 Million 90 Millions of Trips Longwoods TNS Overnight Trips Day Trips

13 Why the Difference?? Overnight Trips:??? Day Trips: Longwoods estimate almost 6 times TNS. We measure Day Trips separately. Not mixed with Overnight Trips. Day Trips less memorable.

14 Overnight Trip Visitor Profile

15 Structure of North Carolina s Overnight Travel Market By Trip Purpose Leisure Trips 88% BusinessLeisure Trips 3% Business Trips 9%

16 Total Overnight Spending by Sector Total = $10.03 Billion Food & Beverage 24% Lodging 39% $4.0 billion $2.4 Billion Transportation 12% Recreation 11% $1.1 Billion Retail 14% $1.4 Billion $1.2 Billion

17 Average Per Party Expenditures by Sector 250 Dollars $218 $ $76 $64 $62 0 Lodging Restaurant Food Retail Purchases Transportation at & Beverage Destination Recreation/ Sightseeing/ Entertainment

18 Average Per Party Expenditures by Trip Purpose 600 Dollars 400 $548 $ Leisure Business

19 Main Purpose of Overnight Trips Visiting friends/relatives Touring Resort Special event Outdoors City trip Marketable Casino Trips Theme park 41% Cruise Golf Trip Skiing/snowboarding Conference/convention Other business trip 3 Business-leisure Percent 60

20 Main Purpose of Leisure Trip North Carolina vs. National Norm 9 Touring Resort Special event Outdoors City trip Casino Theme park Cruise Golf Skiing/snowboarding Percent North Carolina 5 10 US Norm

21 Main Purpose of Business Trip North Carolina vs. National Norm 7 Business trip 7 3 Conference/ Convention Percent North Carolina US Norm

22 State Origin Of Trip North Carolina Virginia Florida South Carolina Georgia New York Pennsylvania Ohio Tennessee California Maryland New Jersey Texas Illinois Percent 30 40

23 DMA Origin Of Trip Raleigh-Durham, NC Charlotte, NC Greensboro-H. Point-W. Salem, NC New York, NY/NJ/PA/CT Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville, SC Atlanta, GA Washington, DC Greenville-New Bern-Washington, NC Norfork-Portsmth-Newpt News, VA/NC Wilmington, NC Philadelphia, PA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota, FL Columbia, SC Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbrn, FL Richmond-Petersburg-Charlottesville,VA Percent 10 15

Method of Planning Trip 60 50 Percent 40 30 54 56 20 40 36 10 7

24 Method of Planning Trip Percent Internet Travel Agent North Carolina Other None US Norm

25 Method of Booking Trip Percent Internet Travel Agent North Carolina Other US Norm None

26 Total Nights Away on Trip North Carolina 4.0 Nights US Norm 3.7 Nights 21 1 night nights nights nights nights nights Percent North Carolina US Norm 40

Number of Nights Spent in North Carolina Average Nights Spent in North Carolina = 3.

27 Number of Nights Spent in North Carolina Average Nights Spent in North Carolina = night 27 2 nights nights nights nights Percent 30 40

Size of Travel Party North Carolina 2.3 US Norm 2.2 0 Total = 3.

28 Size of Travel Party North Carolina 2.3 US Norm Total = Total = Average No. of People Adults Children 4

29 Transportation 79 Own car/truck Plane Rental car Taxi Cab Bus Train Camper, R.V Motorcycle Ship/Boat Bicycle Percent North Carolina US Norm

30 Accommodation 40 Hotel Friends/relatives' dwelling (not paid for) Motel Rented home/condo/apartment Bed & breakfast Own home/condo/apt/second home Campground/trailer park/rv park Rented cottage/cabin Time share Country inn/lodge Boat/cruise ship Homesharing rental (booked thru Airbnb, etc) Other Percent North Carolina 40 US Norm 50

Theater Theme Park Business Meeting Fair/Exhibition 33 20 36 22 17 14 17 16 10 11

31 Activities and Experiences Shopping Fine Dining Beach Swimming Landmark/Historic Site National/State Park Museum Bar/Disco Fishing Hiking/Backpacking Casino Theater Theme Park Business Meeting Fair/Exhibition Percent North Carolina US Norm 30 40

32 Activities and Experiences (Cont d) Camping Winery Zoo Golf Brewery Art Gallery Dance Spa Boating/Sailing Biking Conference/Convention Rock/Pop Concert Pro/College Sports Mountain Climbing Participate/Attend Kids' Sports Event Percent North Carolina US Norm 30 40

33 Activities and Experiences (Cont d) Rafting Birding Part. In adult sports event Trade Show Watch Amateur/Youth Sports Tennis Hunting Opera Motorcycle Touring Symphony Participate in Amateur/Youth Sports Skiing Dude Ranch Rodeo Percent North Carolina US Norm 30 40

Activities of Special Interest 28 Historic places 26 22 Cultural activities & attraction 23 14 Exceptional culinary

34 Activities of Special Interest 28 Historic places Cultural activities & attraction Exceptional culinary experience 16 8 Traveling with grandchildren 7 8 Winery tours & wine tasting 7 6 Eco-Tourism North Carolina Percent 20 US Norm 30

35 Online Social Media Use by Travelers Used any social media for travel Used smartphone while traveling Posted travel photos/video online Read travel reviews Looked at travel photos/video online Accessed travel news/events/deals/ Connected with others interested in travel Read a travel blog Percent North Carolina US Norm

Online Social Media Use by Travelers (Cont d) 76 Used any social media for travel 76 Got travel advice 11 Contributed travel reviews 10 11 10 9 "Followed" a

36 Online Social Media Use by Travelers (Cont d) 76 Used any social media for travel 76 Got travel advice 11 Contributed travel reviews "Followed" a destination/attraction 9 Tweeted about a trip 8 Gave travel advice Subscribed to a travel e-newsletter 6 Blogged about a trip Percent North Carolina US Norm

38 A/ Halo Magic B/ Case Study Research demonstrates strong lift from destination promotion on both tourism AND economic development image. Developing a singular brand for tourism and economic development.

39 The Halo Effect in Psychology Edward L. Thorndike

40 The Halo Effect in Psychology Thorndike had commanding officers rate soldiers on a number of characteristics. If rated high on one attribute, e.g., attractiveness, tended to rate high on all Strong positive correlation. Can work in opposite direction - - Horns Effect.

41 The Halo Effect in Marketing

42 Impact of Destination Marketing on Tourism Image Image lift goes well beyond messages communicated by creative Positive impact across many brand attributes

Impact of 2014 Advertising on North Carolina's Image Exciting 55 44 61 Adult

51 Luxurious 44 56 Climate 48 56 Affordable 47 Sightseeing 47 55 43 Entertainment

43 Impact of 2014 Advertising on North Carolina's Image Exciting Adult Destination Family Atmosphere Worry Free Popular Unique Luxurious Climate Affordable 47 Sightseeing Entertainment Sports and Recreation Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 60 70

44 Short-Term Impacts of North Carolina Advertising 2014 Ad Investment Incremental Visits Incremental Spending State and Local Taxes Spending ROI* Total Tax ROI** $1,156,863 1,396,702 $213.0 M $16.9M $184 $15

45 Beyond Tourism: Impact on Agricultural Image

46 Impact of Tourism Advertising on Oregon s Agricultural Image Base: Residents of Oregon s Regional Advertising Markets Christmas trees Picturesque farming country Seafood Raspberries/blackberries Locally grown specialty foods Microbrewed beers Jams & jellies Great for organically grown food Wine Apples Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 100

47 Impact of Tourism Advertising on Oregon s Agricultural Image Base: Residents of Oregon s Regional Advertising Markets Cherries Vegetables Blueberries Beef Hazelnuts Cheese Pears Strawberries Onions Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 100

48 Impact of Destination Campaigns on Economic Development

Direct Measurement Measurement of economic development impact of tourism campaigns for multiple DMO s through large-scale advertising effectiveness studies.

49 Direct Measurement Measurement of economic development impact of tourism campaigns for multiple DMO s through large-scale advertising effectiveness studies. Paint a picture of HOW and WHY destination marketing creates synergy with economic development. Awareness and image enhancement. Positive impact of visiting the destination.

50 Method Sample Recent large-scale online surveys of a representative sample of adults 18+ in advertising markets for seven U.S. states and two CVBs. Non-residents only included for analysis. Focus on image lift created by: A. Tourism ad awareness. B. Visiting the destination. North Dakota 893 Wisconsin 1,336 Ohio 1,006 North Carolina 1,601 New Mexico 6,032 Minnesota 1,698 Michigan 4,022 Portland OR 997 Lake Erie Shores & Islands OH 1,053 TOTAL 18,638

51 Method Respondents shown client ads across media channels to measure awareness.

52 Impact of North Carolina 2014 Tourism Campaign on State s Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +20% A good place to live +41% A good place to start a career +35% A good place to start a business A good place to attend college +15% A good place to purchase a vacation home +32% +19% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 50 60

53 Impact of Michigan s 2014 Tourism Campaign on State s Economic Development Image Base: National Out-of-State Residents +81% A good place to live +59% A good place to start a career +50% A good place to start a business +41% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +100% +79% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 50 60

54 Impact of North Dakota 2014 Tourism Campaign on State s Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +41% A good place to live +100% A good place to start a career +75% A good place to start a business +87% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +89% +75% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 50 60

55 Impact of Wisconsin 2014 Tourism Campaign on State s Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +47% A good place to live +57% A good place to start a career +57% A good place to start a business +29% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +41% +37% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 60

Impact of Ohio 2014 Tourism Campaign on State s Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +81% A good place to live +59% A good place to start a career +50% A good place to

56 Impact of Ohio 2014 Tourism Campaign on State s Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +81% A good place to live +59% A good place to start a career +50% A good place to start a business +41% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +100% +79% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 50 60

57 Impact of Minnesota s 2014 Tourism Campaign on State s Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +47% A good place to live +57% A good place to start a career +82% A good place to start a business +63% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +83% +90% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 50 60

58 Impact of New Mexico 2014 Tourism Campaign on State s Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +84% A good place to live +154% A good place to start a career +133% A good place to start a business +141% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +107% +76% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware 50 Unaware 60

59 Impact of Portland 2014/2015 Tourism Campaign on City s Economic Development Image Base: Advertising Markets +63% A good place to live +72% A good place to start a career +100% A good place to start a business +69% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +129% +115% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 50 60

60 Impact of Lake Erie Shores & Islands 2014 Tourism Campaign on Region s Economic Development Image Base: Advertising Markets +132% A good place to live +169% A good place to start a career +161% A good place to start a business +104% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +152% A good place to retire +160% Percent Who Strongly Agree Aware Unaware 50 60

61 Impact of Visitation on Economic Development Image

62 Impact of Visitation on North Carolina Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +35% A good place to live +52% A good place to start a career +15% A good place to start a business +35% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +19% +21% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Past 2 Yrs Never 80

Impact of Visitation on Michigan Economic Development Image Base: National Out-of-State Residents +100% A good place to live +100% A good place to start a career +139% A good place to

63 Impact of Visitation on Michigan Economic Development Image Base: National Out-of-State Residents +100% A good place to live +100% A good place to start a career +139% A good place to start a business +56% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +109% +147% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Past 2 Yrs Never 80

64 Impact of Visitation on North Dakota Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +56% A good place to live +53% A good place to start a career +78% A good place to start a business +67% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home -6% +47% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Past 2 Yrs Never 80

65 Impact of Visitation on Wisconsin Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +47% A good place to live +15% A good place to start a career +39% A good place to start a business +73% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +104% +20% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Past 2 Yrs Never 80

66 Impact of Visitation on Ohio Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +90% A good place to live +41% A good place to start a career +67% A good place to start a business +32% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +62% +45% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Past 2 Yrs Never 80

67 Impact of Visitation on Minnesota Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +119% A good place to live +142% A good place to start a career +179% A good place to start a business +136% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +117% +100% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Visited Past Year 75 Not Visited

68 Impact of Visitation on New Mexico Economic Development Image Base: Out-of-State Residents +90% A good place to live +175% A good place to start a career +168% A good place to start a business +151% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +119% A good place to retire +86% Percent Who Strongly Agree Visited Past Year 80 Not Visited

69 Impact of Visitation on Portland Economic Development Image Base: Advertising Markets +42% A good place to live +43% A good place to start a career +72% A good place to start a business +54% A good place to attend college A good place to purchase a vacation home +142% +72% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Visited 60 Did Not Visit 80

Impact of Visitation on Lake Erie Shores & Islands Economic Development Image Base: Advertising Markets +71% A good place to live +94% A good place to start a career +150% A good place to start

70 Impact of Visitation on Lake Erie Shores & Islands Economic Development Image Base: Advertising Markets +71% A good place to live +94% A good place to start a career +150% A good place to start a business +141% A good place to attend college +120% A good place to purchase a vacation home +93% A good place to retire Percent Who Strongly Agree Visited Past Year 60 Not Visited 80

71 In Summary

72 A Good Place to Live % Image Lift Across Nine DMOs Advertising 65 Visitation Advertising Plus Visitation Percent

73 A Good Place to Start a Career % Image Lift Across 9 DMOs Advertising 79 Visitation Advertising Plus Visitation Percent

74 A Good Place to Start a Business % Image Lift Across Nine DMOs 79 Advertising 96 Visitation 194 Advertising Plus Visitation Percent

75 A Good Place to Attend College % Image Lift Across Nine DMOs 66 Advertising 80 Visitation 143 Advertising Plus Visitation Percent

76 A Good Place to Purchase a Vacation Home % Image Lift Across Nine DMOs 90 Advertising 86 Visitation 201 Advertising Plus Visitation Percent

77 A Good Place to Retire % Image Lift Across Nine DMOs 79 Advertising 69 Visitation 164 Advertising Plus Visitation Percent

78 Creating a Singular Brand for Tourism and Economic Development

79 Pure Michigan Case Study

80 Four Keys to Pure Michigan A powerful brand that inspires confidence and produces results. ROI data that proves effectiveness. Industry leadership and unity behind the data and the brand. Sufficient budget to promote the brand.

81 Pre-Pure Michigan Budget Declines 9 $8.0 8 $7.4 Millions 7 $6.4 $5.7 6 $

82 2005: Rock Bottom Doing less every year, due to budget cuts. Demoralized, fragmented private sector. Business declines in middle of decade-long Michigan recession. Ranked 50th in hotel occupancy rate. One bright spot: Got first advertising return on investment results for 2004.

83 First ROI Data (2004) MI spent $3.5 million on advertising. Generated 990,000 trips to state. Those visitors spent $164 million. And paid $11.5 million in state taxes. MI got $3.27 in taxes for each ad dollar spent. Source: Longwoods International

84 2006: Budget Increased to $13.2 Million Created a new brand for the state:

85 Sunrise

86 Consistent Award-Winning Campaign

87 Ten Best Tourism Campaigns Ever 1. Las Vegas ( what happens here, stays here ) 2. Incredible India 3. New Zealand 4. Australia (Paul Hogan, 1980s) 5. Jamaica 6. Pure Michigan 7. Alaska (B4UDIE billboards, 2005) 8. Canada 9. Oregon 10. Virginia (is for Lovers)

Pure Michigan Budgets $30 $29.0 29.00 $28.0 25.00 $25.0 25.00 $25 Millions $20 $17.

88 Pure Michigan Budgets $30 $ $ $ $25 Millions $20 $17.5 $15 $17.0 $ $10 $5.7 $5 $

Pure Michigan Results 2006 2014 Generated 22.4 million out-ofstate trips to Michigan. Those visitors spent $6.

89 Pure Michigan Results Generated 22.4 million out-ofstate trips to Michigan. Those visitors spent $6.6 billion at Michigan businesses. They paid $459 million in state taxes on those trips, primarily sales tax. Cumulative Pure Michigan ROI is $4.81.

90 2010 Michigan Governor s Race Republican Rick Snyder makes Pure Michigan a campaign issue. He calls for consistent funding at $25 million per year. MichaelFinney For a campaign created during the previous DEMOCRAT administration!

91 Michigan 2010 Upper Hand Commercial

92 Snyder Team Cancels Upper Hand Campaign Michael Finney

93 Michigan s Marketing Brand

94 Michigan s Marketing Brand

95 Pure Michigan: Off to the Races

96 Water

97 Coke

98 Beer

99 Detroit Tigers

100 Agriculture

101 Kroger

102 Non-Proﬁts

103 New Standard License Plate

104 Michigan = Pure Michigan

105 Tourism Partners Join the Parade

2014 Pure Michigan Advertising Partners 44 advertising partners in 2014. Invested $5.

106 2014 Pure Michigan Advertising Partners 44 advertising partners in Invested $5.7 million in Pure Michigan ads. $20,000 to $500,000 per partner. Started with 2 $230k in 2002.

107 Traverse City Partner TV Ad

108 It s About More Than Tourism A surge in tourism from visitors outside of Michigan is helping increase demand for vacation houses in the region, where the median home price is about a quarter of that in the Hamptons. Bloomberg, Sept. 14, 2012

109 The Bottom Line Brings in many visitors regionally and nationally. Creates jobs in a difficult economy. Generates incremental dollars to a state treasury struggling with solvency.

110 The Bottom Line Now the SINGULAR BRAND for MICHIGAN: Tourism Economic Development. Many marketing partners.

111 Andy Levine while tourism marketing has been shown to generate significant economic impact by driving visitation, these results demonstrate the potential long-term benefits for broader economic development.

112 Susannah Martinez, New Mexico Governor By showing a true picture of New Mexico, we re doing a better job of getting the message out that New Mexico is a great place to live, start a career, and raise a family.

113 Scott Walker, Wisconsin Governor Investing in tourism promotion and marketing at the national, state, and local level is not only an effective way to attract visitors and grow the economy, it also enhances the image of the state as a place to live and do business.

114 Bill Geist, Zeitgeist Consulting The jury is in. The verdict is crystal. The visitor-focused advertising of DMOs has a pronounced impact on measures that many community leaders have long said are more important than tourism.

115 Bill Geist, Zeitgeist Consulting Destination Marketing is crucial to showcasing our communities to far more than visitors but, indeed, to future residents and investors. And, now, no community leader can honestly argue with that.

116 In Conclusion Tourism marketing is destination branding for every purpose. Unite under tourism brand. Expand tourism marketing to promote growth.

117 Visitor Voodoo Bill Siegel November 2015

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