intelligence October Report 2018

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1 intelligence October Report 2018

2 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 07 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 09 Currency Trends 10 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 13 France 14 United Kingdom 15 Italy 16 Spain 17 Germany 18 Austria 19 Finland 20 International Holiday Calendar 21 Planet Intelligence 2

3 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - October 2018 Top 5 Destination Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers +5% Total Sales France +12% +4% +7% +5% United Kingdom Italy Spain -6% +11% -3% -12% +4% +12% +6% +8% -13% +7% +6% +6% -2% Total Vouchers Germany +0% -11% +12% -2% Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers +7% Total ATV China +13% +1% +12% +2% +31% +12% +17% +16% Russia Taiwan South Korea -22% +16% -1% -16% -9% -8% -8% +27% +8% -9% -7% -5% +5% Total Arrivals Planet Intelligence 3

4 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - YTD Top 5 Destination Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers -2% Total Sales France +3% -3% +6% +5% United Kingdom Italy Spain -12% +6% -10% -12% +3% -10% +0% +3% +0% +3% +6% +1% -7% Total Vouchers Germany -4% -9% +5% -0% Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers +6% Total ATV China +5% -5% +11% +3% +10% +2% +8% +6% Russia Hong Kong Taiwan -19% -9% +9% -16% -8% -6% -3% -1% +15% -7% +4% +4% +3% Total Arrivals Planet Intelligence 4

5 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends October 2018 Overview Following a period of modest decline in the last two months, Tax Free shopping sales in Europe regained momentum in October, recording a 5% year-on-year increase. Sales in the month were boosted by the Chinese Golden Week holiday, which saw a 13% increase in Tax Free sales to Chinese tourists as well as significant growth in sales to American tourists. The continued strengthening of the US dollar against the euro and pound is making Europe a much more attractive destination for American tourists, with Tax Free sales growing 31%: the highest of the top five source markets. Of the major destination markets, France posted the strongest gains this month, with a 12% increase in sales compared with the same month in This increase marks the second month in a row that the country has shown strong positive growth, following September s sizeable 11% year-on-year sales increase. Y/Y Sales Growth 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Sales to Chinese tourists posts strong gains despite currency fluctuations The escalating US-China trade war is affecting much more than just business-to-business trade, with tourism between the two nations also coming under strain. The first three quarters of 2018 have seen a 17% year-on-year decline in flight bookings from China to the US, according to travel website Skyscanner. com. During the summer, the Chinese embassy warned its citizens of the dangers of travel to the US. Since then, this downward trend has continued at pace, with year-on-year bookings to the US down 42% for Golden Week. Conversely, in Europe Tax Free sales to Chinese tourists increased 13% year-on-year for the month of October. Although this was the second-highest rate of growth, in volume terms the sales increase was the largest among all source markets in October. Golden Week 2018 led to an influx of Chinese tourists across the continent and their share of tourists in most countries rose approximately 30%; higher than the respective year-to-date figure for every country. Italy was a key destination and the Chinese share of Tax Free shoppers rose to 43% in October versus 32% in year-to-date terms. As the European Commission s EU-China Tourism Year has reportedly resulted in positive outcomes, many European countries are following suit by making concerted efforts to attract high-net-worth visitors from China. Tourist boards such as Fáilte Ireland Ireland s national tourism development authority are encouraging retailers and attractions to take practical measures such as introducing Chinese-language signage and preferred Chinese payment methods. Coupled with the introduction of direct flights from China in June 2018, these measures seem to be paying off, with Chinese Tax Free sales in Ireland growing by 20% in October.

6 A younger, independent Chinese tourist emerges Europe is witnessing a shift in the typical profile of its Chinese tourists. An increased number of Chinese visitors are now deciding to travel alone or with family and friends, as opposed to with tour groups a travel method more traditionally seen. This trend is being driven by younger, more tech-savvy individuals who utilise services such as WeChat to get ideas for their next destination, and Ctrip to make their bookings. When asked about their travel preferences, these younger shoppers prefer to plan their own trips and like to travel with friends (89%) or alone (45%). These statistics differ vastly when compared to the proportion who liked to travel with tour groups (11%). These young tourists are also adventurous and want a variety of experiences while on holiday, including exploring the city and nature, visiting museums and experiencing art, and shopping. Yet while there is a widening interest in experiential travel, shopping still plays a key part in the holiday plans of this demographic. According to UBS, Chinese consumers typically intend to spend just under 20% of their disposable income on purchasing luxury goods; a figure that remains constant year on year. Chinese millennials (Gen Y) are an important shopping demographic for European retailers, with almost 7 out of every 10 of Tax Free sales being attributed to these shoppers. And while experiences form an increasingly prominent part of the travel itinerary, October s figures in France and Italy demonstrate that shopping is still high on the agenda, with an average 1,518 per transaction. This is higher than any other age category with the exception of Generation Z. However, Gen Z tourists currently only represent 1% of total sales but are beginning to grow in prominence. Who I like to travel with on holiday What I like to do on holiday Average transaction value - France and Italy Others 1% Mainly staying in 17% 1,839 Personalised tour groups 2% Meet new people 27% 1,441 1,518 Tour groups 11% Musical experience 33% 1,200 Cruise 13% Cafes, bar restaurants Shopping 52% 54% Family trip (self-planned) 24% Museums and art 60% Travel alone (self-planned) 45% Explore nature 61% Travel with friends (self-planned) 89% Explore the city 81% Baby Boomers Gen X Gen Y Gen Z Planet Intelligence 6

7 Sales Performance - October 2018 By Destination By Source Market FRA +11.7% CHN +13.2% GBR -6.1% +31.4% ITA +11.4% RUS -22.5% ESP -3.1% TWN +15.7% DEU +0.1% KOR -0.5% AUT +13.3% HKG -23.4% CZE -9.9% SAU +40.4% IRL +16.4% THA +12.7% PRT -23.4% JPN +15.9% GRC -5.2% KWT +3.2% Planet Intelligence 7

8 Sales Performance - YTD By Destination By Source Market FRA +2.5% CHN +5.3% GBR -11.8% +10.3% ITA +6.5% RUS -18.5% ESP -9.6% HKG -8.7% DEU -4.3% TWN +8.7% AUT +12.4% KOR -3.7% IRL -0.4% UAE -10.0% CZE -9.2% THA +1.0% PRT -13.3% SAU -4.3% CHE +9.0% KWT -10.3% Planet Intelligence 8

9 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country October 2018 Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 39% 1,669 27% 10% 1,353 46% SOUTH KOREA 6% 758-9% TAIWAN 5% 2,150 41% SAUDI ARABIA 5% 4, % AUT CHINA 39% % TAIWAN 8% % SWITZERLAND 7% 406-1% RUSSIA 6% % THAILAND 5% % GBR CHINA 28% 402-9% 8% % KUWAIT 5% 364 1% HONG KONG 5% 411-2% UAE 4% 611 4% CZE CHINA 34% 283-6% TAIWAN 17% 223 7% RUSSIA 15% % SOUTH KOREA 7% % 6% 400 5% ITA CHINA 43% 1,140 29% 12% 1,140 34% RUSSIA 6% % TAIWAN 4% 1,265-5% SOUTH KOREA 3% % IRL 39% % CHINA 35% % CANADA 5% 88 19% AUSTRALIA 4% % HONG KONG 2% % ESP CHINA 30% 509-6% RUSSIA 9% % 7% % SOUTH KOREA 4% % MEXICO 4% % PRT CHINA 39% 2,547-6% ANGOLA 16% % BRAZIL 15% % 3% 703 5% MOZAMBIQUE 3% % DEU CHINA 44% 765-6% RUSSIA 7% % TAIWAN 6% % THAILAND 5% 1,027 23% 4% % GRC CHINA 39% 383 7% 9% % RUSSIA 7% % MACEDONIA 6% % CANADA 5% % Planet Intelligence 9

10 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country YTD Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 35% 1,730 12% 9% 1,329 20% HONG KONG 7% 4,127-16% SOUTH KOREA 5% % TAIWAN 5% 2,061 21% AUT CHINA 30% % RUSSIA 10% % SWITZERLAND 8% 412-8% TAIWAN 7% % THAILAND 4% % GBR CHINA 26% % 7% % KUWAIT 6% % UAE 5% 580-9% SAUDI ARABIA 5% % IRL CHINA 36% 418-9% 36% % CANADA 4% 97 14% AUSTRALIA 3% 147-5% MALAYSIA 2% % ITA CHINA 32% 1,125 16% 12% 1,082 22% RUSSIA 9% % TAIWAN 5% 1,249-2% SOUTH KOREA 4% % CZE CHINA 25% 338 4% RUSSIA 22% % TAIWAN 16% 229 9% SOUTH KOREA 6% % 5% 467 6% ESP CHINA 28% 656-3% RUSSIA 8% % 8% 563-4% ARGENTINA 4% % MEXICO 4% 381-3% PRT CHINA 35% 2,100 2% BRAZIL 18% % ANGOLA 17% % 3% % RUSSIA 3% % DEU CHINA 37% 674-6% RUSSIA 9% % TAIWAN 5% 461 2% THAILAND 4% 979 1% UAE 4% % CHE CHINA 24% 1,325 25% UAE 8% 1,869 3% RUSSIA 7% 1,376-16% 6% 1,350 35% SAUDI ARABIA 5% 1,543-7% Planet Intelligence 10

11 Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP Planet Intelligence 11

12 Arrivals Forecast In partnership with Know tomorrow s travellers Planet Intelligence 12

13 Europe Overview Destination Market Insights TOTAL GBR FIN +8.4% +0.8% +6.3% +2.3% +13.3% +3.0% The three months from November 2018 through to January 2019 are expected to witness a 0.8% increase in non-eu tourist arrivals a significant decline when compared with the 8.4% growth seen in the same period a year earlier. With the exception of Germany and France, all destination markets are predicted to experience growth during this period, with Austria and Italy expected to post the strongest gains, with forecasted growth of 5.8% and 5.5%, respectively. While the rate of gains may ostensibly appear muted, they follow uncharacteristically high arrival growth figures in the same period a year earlier, so opportunities for sales growth continue to look positive for retailers. Source Market Insights NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19 DEU +7.7% -2.9% AUT Strong sales growth can be expected from the Far East during the months of November to January, with tourist arrivals from Thailand, Japan and Taiwan set to see double-digit growth of 31%, 15% and 12% respectively. The gradual strengthening of the Thai bhat against the euro has made it more attractive for Thai tour groups to travel to the continent, with the currency being a standout performer in a difficult period for many emerging currencies. The biggest increases in arrivals among Thai tourists will in Italy, with a 65% increase expected, and France, where a 43% increase is expected. Japanese growth will be felt most in Spain and the UK, with growth figures of 25% and 19% expected, respectively. Significant Taiwanese traveller growth can be expected in France, at 27%, and Spain at 25% ESP +7.7% +1.0% FRA +13.1% -1.8% +4.6% +5.8% ITA +7.0% +5.5% Planet Intelligence 13

14 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - France RUS +17.4% -5.0% CHN +1.5% -0.7% HNG +3.7% +5.8% NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19 KOR +13.3% +4.8% +5.0% +0.7% BRA JPN +41.0% -16.5% +5.2% +15.5% KUW TWN +34.9% -4.3% -10.4% +26.9% SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS +3.3% +3.4% +12.9% -5.7% +7.7% -5.3% +21.4% +1.1% +24.9% +42.7% +42.3% +0.9% Planet Intelligence 14

15 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - UK RUS +9.5% -8.9% CHN -11.7% +4.0% HNG -11.0% +7.8% NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19 KOR -3.2% +4.0% +6.0% +7.3% BRA JPN +14.3% -0.9% -2.6% +19.4% KUW TWN +22.9% +5.2% -1.3% +11.4% SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS +4.4% +6.9% +14.4% -3.6% +6.0% -1.1% +11.9% +5.3% +21.2% +7.6% +36.8% -2.3% Planet Intelligence 15

16 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Italy RUS +1.6% -5.7% CHN -7.0% +3.3% HNG -10.1% +31.0% NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19 KOR +14.6% +7.3% +13.9% +1.1% BRA JPN +8.9% +6.5% -8.2% +5.0% KUW TWN +22.0% -6.0% +0.7% -1.3% SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS +9.2% -7.4% -18.2% -11.1% -10.0% -4.2% +30.8% +4.5% +16.5% +65.2% +39.8% -3.4% Planet Intelligence 16

17 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Spain RUS +6.8% -1.5% CHN -27.0% +5.0% HNG +11.7% +1.0% NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19 KOR +18.7% +8.9% -9.1% +5.2% BRA JPN +1.7% +1.0% -23.5% +25.3% KUW TWN -17.2% +7.5% -20.4% +24.6% SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS -5.5% -3.7% -24.7% -2.6% -1.7% -6.8% +18.4% +6.2% +48.1% -5.8% +43.8% +0.2% Planet Intelligence 17

18 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Germany RUS +5.0% -6.1% CHN +7.7% -1.3% HNG +5.0% +1.6% NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19 KOR +4.4% +3.9% +24.5% -9.8% BRA JPN +2.2% -2.4% +9.8% +9.5% KUW TWN +12.6% +0.4% +0.5% +7.8% SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS -2.2% +0.0% +3.1% -12.0% +2.6% -10.5% +15.3% -8.7% +55.9% +21.8% +34.0% -2.8% Planet Intelligence 18

19 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Austria RUS +4.9% -3.3% CHN -6.8% +15.0% HNG +36.8% -3.5% NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19 KOR -0.0% +5.2% +17.7% -4.3% BRA JPN -6.2% -1.1% -1.3% -2.1% KUW TWN +29.8% +3.0% +25.0% +39.8% SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS +3.7% -6.3% -21.3% +5.4% +3.2% -8.1% +14.2% -1.8% % +77.4% +40.8% +4.6% Planet Intelligence 19

20 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Finland RUS +33.2% -9.1% CHN -2.5% -2.5% HNG -0.1% +5.7% NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19 KOR +12.2% +1.6% +16.5% -6.2% BRA JPN +15.7% +7.5% -1.3% -3.1% KUW TWN -2.8% +0.0% +15.9% +2.6% SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS +0.0% -2.4% -11.1% -26.7% -6.2% -4.3% +36.0% -7.8% +28.1% -1.6% % -3.2% Planet Intelligence 20

21 International Holiday Calendar 2018 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC CHN 1-2 New Year s Holiday Spring Festival - 5 Qing Ming Jie 1 Labour Day 18 Dragon Boat Festival 24 Mid-Autumn Festival 1 National Day Chinese New Year 2-7 Golden Week Holiday RUS 1 New Year s Day 7 Orthodox Xmas Day 23 Defence of the Fatherland Day 8 Women s Day 12 National Day 4-6 Unity Day Holiday IND 36 Republic Day 13 Maha Shivaratri 25 Rama Navami 30 Buddha Purnima 15 Independence Day 29 Mahavir Jayanti 22 Bakr Id / Eid ul-adha 30 Good Friday 3 Janmashtami 21 Muharram / Ashura 19 Dussehra 7 Diwali / Deepavali 25 Christmas Day 21 Milad un-nabi 23 Guru Nanak Jayanti BRA 1 New Year s Day Carnival 30 Good Friday 21 Tiradentes Day 1 Labour Day / May Day 31 Corpus Christi 7 Independence Day 12 Our Lady Aparecida Day / Childeren s Day 28 Public Service Holiday 2 All Soul s Day 15 Republic Proclamation Day 24 Christmas Eve 25 Christmas Day 31 New Years Eve MID EAST 1 New Year s Day 6 Army Day (Iraq) 11 Revolution Day (Iran) 25 Kuwaiti National Day 26 Liberation Day (Kuwait) 20 Oil Nationalisation Day (Iran) Perian New Year (Iran) 30 Birthday of Imam Ali (Iran) 1 Islamic Republic Day (Iran) 2 Nature Day (Iran) Pesach I (First day of Passover - Israel) 13 Prophet s Ascension (UAE/Iran) 24 Isra & Miraj (Oman) 27 Isra & Miraj (Kuwait) 1 Labour Day / May Day (Iraq / Bahrain) 2 Israel Independence Day) 31 Pentecost (Israel) 4 Anniversary of Khomeni s Death (Iran) Eid-al-Fitr (UAE) Eid-al-Fitr (Oman) Eid-al-Fitr (Kuwait) 23 Renaissance Day (Oman) 21 Arafat Day (UAE) 21 Eid-e-Ghorban (Iran) Eid-al-Adha 1 Waqfat Arafat Day (Kuwait) 2-4 Eid-al-Adha (Kuwait / Saudi Arabia) 12 Islamic New Year (UAE / Bahrain / Iraq) 19 Tassoua (Iran) Rosh Hashana (Israel New Year) 22 Islamic New Year (Kuwait) 24 Saudi National Day 30 Yom Kippur (Israel) 3 Iraqi Independence Day 5-11 Sukkot (Israel) 12 Simchat Torah (Israel) 29 Arbaeen (Iran) 21 Mouloud - Prophet s Birthday (UAE). 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday (Iran) 30 Commemoration Day (UAE) 1 Prophet s Birthday (Kuwait) 2 National Day (UAE) National Day (Bahrain) HKG 1 New Year s Day Spring Festival - 30 Good Friday Chinese New Year 31 Holy Saturday 2 Easter Monday 5 Tomb Sweeping 1 Labour Day 22 Buddha s Birthday 18 Dragon Boat Festival 1-2 Establishment Day 25 Day after 1 PRC National Day Holiday Mid-Autumn Festival 17 Chung Yeung Festival 25 Christmas Day 26 Boxing Day IDN 1 New Year s Day 16 Spring Festival - 17 Day of Silence & Chinese New Year Hindu New Year 30 Good Friday 13 Ascension of the Prophet Mohammad 1 Labour Day 10 Ascension Day of Jesus Christ 29 Waisak Day Idul Fitri 17 Independence Day 21 Muslim Day of Sacrifice 11 Muharram - Islamic New Year 20 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day MYS 16 Spring Festival - Chinese New Year 29 Wesak Day 1 Labour Day Hari Raya 28 Yang di-pertuan 22 Hari Raya Haji Agong s Birthday 31 Nataional day 12 Muharram - Islamic New Year 16 Malaysia Day 7 Diwali / Deepavali 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day THA 1 New Year s Day 31 Makha Bucha 6 Chakri Day 1 Labour Day Songkran 10 Royal Ploughing 29 Visakha Bucha Ceremony Day 27 Asalha Bucha 28 King Vajiralongkorn s Birthday 28 Buddhist Lent Day The Queen s Birthday Mother s Day 23 Chulalongkorn Day 5 Father s Day 10 Constitution Day 31 New Year s Eve JAP 1 New Year s Day 8 Coming of Age Day National Foundation Day 21 Spring Equinox Showa Day 3 Constitution Memorial Day 4 Greenery Day 5 Childeren s Day 16 Sea Day 11 Mountain Day 17 Respect the Aged Day 8 Sports Day 3 Culture Day 23 Labour Thanksgiving Day Emporor s Birthday 1 New Year s Day 15 Martin Luther King Jr Day 19 President s Day 4 Independence Day 3 Labour Day 8 Columbus Day Veteran s Day 25 Christmas Day 22 Thanksgiving Day Planet Intelligence 21

22 Fintrax Group Holdings (Now branded as Planet) Headquartered in Galway, Ireland Web: planetpayment.com If you would like to know more about Tax Free Statistics, please get in touch with your Planet representative.

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