The Essential Report. 25 February MELBOURNE SYDNEY BRISBANE ADELAIDE BRUSSELS

Transcription

1 The Essential Report 25 February 2014 MELBOURNE SYDNEY BRISBANE ADELAIDE BRUSSELS

2 The Essential Report Date: 25 February 2014 Prepared by: Essential Research Data supplied: Essential Media Communications is a member of the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations. Our researchers are members of the Australian Market and Social Research Society The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 2 / 11

3 About this poll This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online from the 21 st to 24 th February 2014 and is based on 1,035 respondents. Aside from the standard question on voting intention, this week s report includes questions on Government handling of issues, the renewable energy target, Qantas and file sharing. The methodology used to carry out this research is described in the appendix on page 11. Note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 3 / 11

4 Federal politics voting intention Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? Q. If don t know - Well which party are you currently leaning to? Sample size = 1,847 respondents First preference/leaning to Election 7 Sep 13 4 weeks ago 28/1/14 2 weeks ago 11/2/14 Last week 18/2/14 This week 25/2/14 Liberal 40% 40% 38% 39% National 3% 3% 3% 3% Lib/Nat 45.6% 42% 43% 41% 42% Labor 33.4% 36% 39% 40% 39% Greens 8.6% 9% 8% 8% 9% Palmer United Party 5.5% 4% 3% 4% 4% Other/Independent 6.9% 9% 7% 8% 7% 2 Party Preferred Election 7 Sep 13 4 weeks ago 28/1/14 2 weeks ago 11/2/14 Last week 18/2/14 This week 25/2/14 Liberal National 53.5% 50% 50% 49% 49% Labor 46.5% 50% 50% 51% 51% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2- week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select don t know are not included in the results. The two- party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election. The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 4 / 11

5 Government handling of issues Q. How would you rate the Federal Liberal- National Government for the way they have handled the following issues? Net Very Very Don t Good Average Poor good poor score good poor know Managing the economy 34% 31% +3 12% 22% 29% 16% 15% 6% Treatment of asylum seekers 37% 36% +1 18% 19% 18% 11% 25% 9% Relations with other countries 29% 32% - 3 8% 21% 30% 13% 19% 8% Education and schools 28% 35% - 7 6% 22% 28% 19% 16% 8% Supporting Australian businesses 27% 34% - 7 8% 19% 31% 18% 16% 8% Protecting the environment 26% 36% % 19% 28% 14% 22% 9% Social welfare 27% 39% % 19% 26% 17% 22% 8% Industrial relations 26% 38% % 17% 27% 18% 20% 9% Health services 25% 38% % 19% 29% 20% 18% 7% Climate change 24% 39% % 14% 28% 13% 26% 9% Supporting Australian jobs 25% 44% % 17% 26% 20% 24% 6% The Government received negative rating for all issues except managing the economy (34% good/31% poor) and treatment of asylum seekers (37%/36%). Highest negative ratings were given for supporting Australian jobs (25% good/44% poor), climate change (24%/39%), health services (25%/38%), industrial relations (26%/38%) and social welfare (27%/39%). The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 5 / 11

6 Renewable energy target Q. The Renewable Energy Target scheme encourages investment in renewable energy by requiring electricity retail companies to purchase a certain amount of renewable energy each year. By the year 2020, at least 20% of electricity must come from renewable resources. Do you think this target of 20% renewable energy by 2020 is too high, too low or about right? Labor Lib/Nat Greens other Too high 13% 7% 21% 10% 13% Too low 25% 32% 15% 62% 19% About right 39% 40% 41% 19% 49% Don t know 23% 20% 24% 9% 20% 39% think the current renewable energy target is about right, 25% think it is too low and 13% think it is too high. 62% of Greens voters, 32% of labor voters and 29% of those with university education think it is too low. The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 6 / 11

7 Opinion of Qantas Q. Compared to 12 months ago, how do you feel about Qantas - more positive, more negative or about the same? Labor Lib/Nat Greens other Fly regularly Fly once or twice a year Fly less often 29 Apr 13 more positive 11% 10% 15% 4% 4% 21% 15% 4% 18% more negative 25% 24% 26% 22% 34% 27% 25% 24% 18% A lot more positive 4% 3% 5% 1% 2% 7% 6% 1% 5% A little more positive 7% 7% 10% 3% 2% 14% 9% 3% 13% About the same 58% 60% 55% 65% 55% 51% 57% 64% 55% A little more negative 17% 15% 19% 16% 22% 18% 18% 16% 11% A lot more negative 8% 9% 7% 6% 12% 9% 7% 8% 7% No opinion 7% 6% 4% 8% 6% 1% 3% 10% 9% 11% say that, compared to 12 months ago, they feel more negative about Qantas, 25% feel more positive and 58% feel about the same. This is a substantial decline for Qantas since this question was asked last April. Regular flyers are somewhat more positive - 21% feel more positive and 27% more negative. 20% of those aged feel more positive and 39% of those aged 55+ feel more negative. The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 7 / 11

8 Choice of Airline Q. Which of the following best describes your airline preference when booking air travel? Labor Lib/Nat Greens other Fly regularly Fly once or twice a year 29 Apr 13 I usually try to fly Qantas 35% 33% 44% 18% 23% 39% 32% 34% I usually try to avoid flying Qantas 19% 17% 18% 16% 22% 24% 17% 20% I don t care whether I fly Qantas or not 44% 47% 37% 66% 45% 35% 48% 43% Can t say 3% 3% 2% - 10% 2% 3% 3% Based on respondents who travel by air at least once a year 35% of respondents who travel by air at least once a year said they usually try to fly Qantas, 19% try to avoid flying Qantas and 44% don t care either way. 39% of regular flyers usually try to fly Qantas. These figures are very similar to those obtained when this question was asked in April last year. The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 8 / 11

9 Government support for Qantas Q. Would you approve or disapprove of the Federal Government taking any of the following actions on Qantas? Strongly Strongly Don t Approve Disapprove approve disapprove approve disapprove know Buy a share of Qantas 49% 30% 12% 37% 19% 11% 21% Guarantee Qantas loans 45% 32% 8% 37% 21% 11% 22% Nationalise Qantas, i.e. the Government has 36% 42% 11% 25% 24% 18% 22% full ownership and control Provide direct funding and subsidies 35% 42% 7% 28% 27% 15% 23% Allow increased foreign ownership of Qantas 31% 52% 6% 25% 25% 27% 16% Overall, respondents approved the Government buying a share of Qantas (49% approve/30% disapprove) and guaranteeing Qantas loans (45%/32%). They tended to disapprove of allowing increased foreign ownership (31% approve/52% disapprove), providing direct funding (35%/42%) and nationalising Qantas (36%/42%). Liberal/National voters were more likely to disapprove of all forms of assistance except allowing increased foreign ownership (40% approve/48% disapprove). The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 9 / 11

10 File sharing Q. The Government has indicated that it intends to place more pressure in Internet Service Providers to stop filesharing, including potentially cutting off internet connections to their customers who illegally download files. Do you support such measures? Aged Aged Aged Labor Lib/Nat Greens other support 38% 29% 53% 17% 32% 28% 38% 49% oppose 42% 52% 30% 61% 45% 52% 39% 31% Strongly support 11% 9% 14% 3% 17% 7% 11% 15% Support 27% 20% 39% 14% 15% 21% 27% 34% Oppose 16% 16% 14% 21% 15% 15% 15% 16% Strongly oppose 26% 36% 16% 40% 30% 37% 24% 15% Don t know 21% 19% 18% 23% 23% 20% 24% 19% 42% opposed and 38% supported measures to stop illegal file sharing. Those more likely to oppose these measures were Greens voters (61%), Labor voters (52%) aged (52%) and university educated (46%). Those more likely to support these measures were Liberal/National voters (53%) and aged 55+ (49%). The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 10 / 11

11 Appendix: Methodology, margin of error and professional standards The data gathered for this report is gathered from a weekly online omnibus conducted by Your Source. Essential Research has been utilizing the Your Source online panel to conduct research on a week- by- week basis since November Each week, the team at Essential Media Communications discusses issues that are topical and a series of questions are devised to put to the Australian public. Some questions are repeated regularly (such as political preference and leadership approval), while others are unique to each week and reflect media and social issues that are present at the time. Your Source has a self- managed consumer online panel of over 100,000 members. The majority of panel members have been recruited using off line methodologies, effectively ruling out concerns associated with online self- selection. Your Source has validation methods in place that prevent panellist over use and ensure member authenticity. Your Source randomly selects 18+ males and females (with the aim of targeting 50/50 males/females) from its Australia wide panel. An invitation is sent out to approximately of their panel members. The response rate varies each week, but usually delivers interviews. In theory, with a sample of this size, there is 95 per cent certainty that the results are within 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire population had been polled. However, this assumes random sampling, which, because of non- response and less than 100% population coverage cannot be achieved in practice. Furthermore, there are other possible sources of error in all polls including question wording and question order, interviewer bias (for telephone and face- to- face polls), response errors and weighting. The best guide to a poll s accuracy is to look at the record of the polling company - how have they performed at previous elections or other occasions where their estimates can be compared with known population figures. In the last poll before the 2010 election, the Essential Report estimates of first preference votes were all within 1% of the election results. The Your Source online omnibus is live from the Wednesday night of each week and closed on the following Sunday. Incentives are offered to participants in the form of points. Essential Research uses the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software to analyse the data. The data is weighted against Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. All Essential Research and senior Your Source staff hold Australian Market and Social Research Society (AMSRS) membership and are bound by professional codes of behaviour. Your Source is an Australian social and market research company specializing in recruitment, field research, data gathering and data analysis. Essential Research is a member of the Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO). Your Source holds Interviewer Quality Control Australia (IQCA) accreditation, Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO) membership and World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research Professionals (ESOMAR) membership. Both Essential Research and Your Source are ISO accredited market research companies. This research was conducted in compliance with AS: ISO20252 guidelines. The Essential Report 24/02/14 Page 11 / 11