Armstrong Creek Town Centre

Transcription

1 Armstrong Creek Town Centre Amendment C267 to the Geelong Planning Scheme Expert Witness Statement Sean Stephens B. Econ (Honours) Managing Partner and Senior Economist, Essential Economics Pty Ltd O c t o b e r

2 Contact details For further details please contact: Essential Economics Pty Ltd 96 Pelham Street Carlton Victoria 3053 Australia PH FAX mail@essentialeconomics.com WEB ABN Project Number: 13182

3 Contents 1 INTRODUCTION DETAILS OF THE AMENDMENT OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC TECHNICAL REPORT CONSIDERATIONS FOR PANEL CONCLUSIONS ATTACHMENT: CV ATTACHMENT: TECHNICAL REPORT... 23

4 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 1 I N T R O D U C T I O N Professional Details 1.1 My name is Sean Andrew Stephens and I practice as Managing Partner and Senior Economist at Essential Economics Pty Ltd of 96 Pelham Street, Carlton 1.2 I hold the degree of Economics with Honours from the University of Newcastle. A copy of my CV is attached to this Statement. Area of Expertise 1.3 My area of expertise is urban economics and the assessment of economic impacts on local and regional economies associated with urban development projects. An area of special professional activity is the preparation of retail and commercial land use strategies for metropolitan activity centres, town centres and regions, and the assessment of economic impacts associated with proposed new or expanded retail developments. I have undertaken retail economic impact assessments across Australia for local Councils and for private sector clients. Instructions 1.4 I have been instructed in this matter by Maddocks Lawyers on behalf of the City of Greater Geelong. 1.5 My instructions in this matter are as follows: - To review details of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre Precinct Structure Plan (PSP) and the proposed Amendment C267 to the Geelong Planning Scheme; - To examine aspects relating to the economics of activity centres and land use planning which fall in my area of expertise; and - To prepare this Expert Witness Statement. Preparation 1.6 In preparing this Statement I have undertaken the following tasks: - Reviewed the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP and Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan; - Reviewed, as required, relevant supporting documentation related to the PSP; - Reviewed relevant submissions made in relation to the PSP and Amendment C267; - Considered relevant activity centre planning policies; and - Prepared this Statement on behalf of my client. 1

5 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S This Statement 1.7 This Statement comprises the following sections: Section 1: Introduction Section 2: Details of the Amendment Section 3: Overview of Economic Technical Report Section 4: Considerations for Panel Section 5: Conclusions 2

6 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 2 D E TA I L S O F T H E A M E N D M E N T Background 2.1 Amendment C267 to the Geelong Planning Scheme has been proposed by the City of Greater Geelong and applies to land known as the Armstrong Creek Town Centre Precinct (ACTCP). 2.2 The ACTCP comprises a total of approximately 92 hectares of land on the eastern side of the Surf Coast Highway within the Armstrong Creek urban growth area. At present, the site is largely undeveloped. 2.3 The proposed Amendment C267 seeks to implement the broad directions contained in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP. An Exhibition Version of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP was released in March The Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP is based on the directions of the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan 2008 (Amended 2012) that identified the ACTCP as the location for a future Major Activity Centre. 2.5 According to the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan, Volume 1 Page 76: A Major Activity Centre should be developed alongside Torquay Road towards the south of the growth area. This should provide a full range of convenience and comparison retail together with a wide range of community facilities and services, entertainment and employment opportunities, and high-density residential accommodation. 2.6 Within the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan a total of seven precincts are identified, including one for the proposed Armstrong Creek Town Centre. It was this precinct, with a minor modification to the boundary, that was considered in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP prepared in March I prepared a technical report as input to the PSP titled Armstrong Creek Town Centre Technical Report: Retail and Economic Assessment in May The results of this analysis and report are summarised in the next Chapter of my witness statement. Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP 2.8 The Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP identifies the following role for the town centre (Page 15): - A full range of convenience services and comparison retail, anchored by department stores, specialty stores and bulky goods stores; - A wide range of community facilities and services, education services and health services; 3

7 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S - Entertainment, community and recreation space; - Employment opportunities, including commercial and government offices; and - Residential development in a range of densities and typologies. These directions are generally consistent with those identified in the Armstrong Creek UGP (including as quoted in my Point 2.5). 2.9 A particular focus of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP is on the creation of a sense of place and community. I note that this outcome is consistent with PSP guidelines established by the Growth Areas Authority In general terms, the tools within the PSP seeking to achieve this outcome include: - Creation of high quality public and civic spaces, including through significant public investment - An emphasis on street-based activity, and this includes retail and commercial activities - Emphasising access to the centre by walking, cycling and public transport - Supporting higher density residential development, particularly near services and public transport - Creating mixed use development - Supporting early development around the new east-west main street It is also recognised in the PSP (Page 16) that the town centre will be developed over a significant period of time. On this basis, it is important to recognise that the final land use and development outcomes sought by the PSP will be a process of evolution over a long period of time, rather than an outcome achieved in a single phase of development A further consideration in the PSP is the identification of key sites. These sites are primarily identified in the Concept Plan shown in Plan 5 of the PSP and in Figure 1 of my witness statement By identifying key sites at which preferred development outcomes are shown, the PSP is able to influence the urban structure of the town centre. For example, the identification of locations for a primary retail anchor support the vision for a streetbased retail and commercial core that straddles both sides of the future east-west Main Street. 4

8 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S Figure 1 Armstrong Creek Town Centre Concept Plan Source: Armstrong Creek Town Centre Precinct Structure Plan, March

9 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S Precincts 2.14 Another influence on land use outcomes identified in the PSP is the definition of five precincts, each of which has a preferred land use and design outcome A general description of each precinct is as follows: Precinct One: Central Core The Central Core Precinct is characterised by an east-west Main Street and a pedestrian priority High Street running in a north-south direction. The junction of Main Street and High Street is to be developed as a Town Square and will represent the core or focus of high intensity retail, commercial, civic and community activities in the entire town centre. Precinct Two: Surf Coast Boulevard (Core Frontage) Located immediately west of the Central Core, the Surf Coast Boulevard (Core Frontage) precinct seeks to provide small and medium format retail (up to 2,000m 2 ) and commercial uses with direct frontage and exposure to the busy Surf Coast Highway. Planning and design controls will be used to ensure that the entry point to the adjacent Central Core precinct is an appropriate gateway and that the overall design of the precinct is attractive and user friendly. Precinct Three: Surf Coast Boulevard (Mixed Use) The Surf Coast Boulevard (Mixed Use) precinct has an emphasis on employment uses, including small and medium format retail (up to 2,000m 2 ) and commercial uses. Higher-density residential uses are also supported in this precinct. Precinct Four: Central Mixed Use Incorporates the proposed Integrated Transport Hub and seeks to provide a range of community and civic uses, including public space. This precinct supports retail and commercial uses (such as office and trade supplies) that are less suited to the main street-style environment encouraged in the Central Core precinct. Precinct Five: Residential Mixed Use The focus of development in the Residential Mixed Use precinct is on medium and higher-density residential formats, with some allowance for convenience-oriented retail and commercial activity The five precincts identified in the PSP are shown in Figure 2. 6

10 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S Figure 2 Precinct Plan PRECINCT 3 MUZ PRECINCT 5 MUZ PRECINCT 4 MUZ PRECINCT 1 B1Z PRECINCT 2 B2Z PRECINCT 3 MUZ Source: Armstrong Creek Town Centre Precinct Structure Plan, March

11 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S Amendment C As previously noted, Amendment C267 seeks to implement the directions of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP into the Greater Geelong Planning Scheme In terms of land use outcomes of most relevance to my expertise, Schedule 5 to the Urban Growth Zone identifies the planning mechanisms that seek to implement the directions of the PSP that I have identified above. This includes applying relevant planning provisions to the five precincts defined in the PSP In relation to retail and commercial development outcomes, the following current planning provisions contained in Amendment C267 are of particular importance: Precinct One: Central Core - Commercial 1 Zone provisions applied - Department store of more than 7,000m 2 in size prohibited - Supermarket of more than 5,500m 2 in size prohibited - Total shop floorspace limited to 35,000m 2 (originally exhibited as 40,000m 2 ). Precinct Two: Surf Coast Boulevard (Core Frontage) - Commercial 1 Zone provisions applied - Restricted retail tenancies of more than 2,000m 2 in size prohibited - Shop (other than restricted retail) prohibited. Precinct Three: Surf Coast Boulevard (Mixed Use) - Mixed Use Zone provisions applied - Restricted retail tenancies of more than 2,000m 2 in size prohibited - Shop (other than restricted retail) prohibited. Precinct Four: Central Mixed Use - Mixed Use Zone provisions applied - Restricted retail tenancies of more than 2,000m 2 in size prohibited - Shop tenancies of more than 2,000m 2 in size prohibited - Trade Supplies tenancies of more than 13,000m 2 in size prohibited. 8

12 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 3 OV E RV I E W O F E C O N O M I C T EC H N I C A L R E P O R T Background 3.1 I was the principal author of a technical report titled Armstrong Creek Town Centre Technical Report: Retail and Economics Assessment prepared in May 2012 as input to the preparation of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. As part of the project team for the PSP, I was heavily involved in the program of workshops and stakeholder consultation undertaken in the early stages of the project. 3.2 Furthermore, in undertaking the analysis for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, I have drawn upon my experience in undertaking economic analysis as input to land use planning in the Geelong Region over the past ten or so years. This includes preparing the Geelong Retail Strategy 2006 for the City of Greater Geelong and involvement in various other studies for private and public sector clients. 3.3 My brief for the report can be generally described as follows: - Market demand analysis for the retail and commercial development potential in the town centre - Recommendations on the type and scale of the likely components of the town centre - Analysis of land requirements to accommodate identified uses - Estimates of local employment generation. Chapter One: Background and Town Centre Development Context (Page 3 to 8) 3.4 Although the technical report was a standalone analysis for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP, it was closely informed by the Armstrong Creek UGP. 3.5 Some of the main objectives identified in the Armstrong Creek UGP relevant to the technical report include: - To provide a wide range of housing types and densities in an urban structure based on walkable neighbourhoods, public transport and mixed use activity centres - To establish a network of mixed use activity centres providing retail, community and educational facilities for the incoming Armstrong Creek community - To create an economic and employment structure that complements the broader Geelong region while providing employment areas, business opportunities and local jobs - To ensure the provision of a comprehensive and well-connected network of open space recreation facilities - To ensure the orderly and controlled development of Armstrong Creek. 9

13 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 3.6 The Armstrong Creek UGP also incorporated some expectations of the potential floorspace components of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre based on a preliminary analysis undertaken in around 2006 by another consulting firm. According to these preliminary expectations, the town centre could include: - 35,000m 2 of retail floorspace This is expected to include a full range of convenience and comparison retail, anchored by discount department stores, supermarkets, speciality stores. - 25,000m 2 of restricted retail floorspace Including bulky goods (homemaker) retailing such as hardware, furniture, whitegoods and other store types requiring large display and storage areas. - 7,000m 2 of entertainment floorspace Including tavern, cinema and other entertainment uses. - 35,000m 2 of office floorspace This will incorporate both commercial and government offices. - 35,000m 2 of community services floorspace Expected to include a wide range of community facilities, education services and health services. 3.7 On Page 7 of the technical report, the following factors are considered relevant to the preparation of the PSP, and in particular the nature and scale of retail and commercial development, as is relevant to my area of expertise: - Existing Analysis and Development Expectations In planning for the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area, considerable analysis and planning for the town centre has already been undertaken through the development of the UGP and a subsequent Enquiry by Design process which identified a possible design outcome. - Multiple Landholdings The Armstrong Creek Town Centre precinct is under multiple ownership, with a total of 8 separate landholdings. This ownership structure has a strong influence on the potential layout of the Town Centre and how individual retail and commercial components can be delivered, especially during the initial stages of development. - Current Planning and Development Considerations The development framework for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre needs to reflect current planning agreements already established between key stakeholders, such as Woolworths and the Coles Group. These entities control large sites within the Town Centre and will have a significant influence on the timing, scale and nature of development. 10

14 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S - Strong Vision for Town Centre Development In planning for the development of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, Council is seeking an aspirational outcome that maximises the quality, scale and diversity of development outcomes in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. Chapter Two: Market Assessment (Page 9 to 29) Trade Area Analysis 3.8 Although the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is a key component of the surrounding growth area, in reality it will be serving a trade area that extends well beyond the growth area. This is reflected in the trade area described on pages 8 and 9 of the technical report, and shown in Maps 2.1 and 2.2. The trade area that extends a short distance north and east of the Armstrong Creek growth area, and includes much of the Surf Coast region to the south and south-west. 3.9 It is very important that this broader role and function of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, that extends well beyond the boundaries of the growth area, is understood and reflected in land use planning for the centre The trade area for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is forecast to experience the following population growth (see also Technical Report Table 2.2): : 47,690 persons : 67,700 persons : 94,480 persons ,370 persons : 135,730 persons I have checked these population projections contained in the technical report on the basis of new 2011 ABS Census information and revised State Government population forecasts contained in the Victoria in Future 2012 publication. No material change in expectations of population growth arise from this new information Within the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP area, the total population is estimated to be approximately 3,500 persons at capacity. This compares with approximately 2,700 residents currently living in Central Geelong in Supportable Retail Floorspace 3.13 Allowing for the forecast trade area population described above and then applying an indicative market share to the retail spending generated by this population, Table 2.10 of the technical report forecasts a total retail floorspace provision in the town centre of 40,000m 2 in

15 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 3.14 Including recognition of the expressed interest of Woolworths and Coles Group of each having a supermarket and discount department store in the town centre, an indicative development scheme was identified in Table 2.12 (Page 25) of the technical report, and is also shown in Figure 3 below. Figure 3 Armstrong Creek Town Centre Indicative Schedule of Retail Uses, 2031 Tenant Type Indicative Retail Floorspace Discount Department Store (x2) 14,000m 2 Full-line Supermarkets (x2) 7,000m 2 Total Majors 21,000m 2 Mini Majors (various) 4,000m 2 Specialty Shops (various) 15,000m 2 Total Retail 40,000m 2 Source: Essential Economics Note: Indicative scheme only 3.15 Further to the development of traditional retail categories, the analysis also identified that an estimated 35,000m 2 of restricted retail floorspace is considered supportable at the Armstrong Creek Town Centre (see also Technical Report Table 2.12, Page 26) In summary, the technical report forecasts a retail floorspace provision in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre that is higher than that identified in the Armstrong Creek UGP, as shown in Figure 4 below. Figure 4 Armstrong Creek Town Centre Retail Floorspace Comparison Land Use Armstrong Creek UGP Essential Economic PSP Technical Report Traditional Retail 35,000m 2 40,000m 2 Homemaker Retail 25,000m 2 35,000m 2 Total Retail 60,000m 2 75,000m 2 Source: Essential Economics 3.17 In my view this reflects three key factors: - The increased expectations of the population capacity in the Armstrong Creek growth area which may now be in the order of 70,000 persons relative to the 55,000 to 60,000 persons expected by the Armstrong Creek UGP as a result of additional housing stock identified by individual PSPs in the growth area - The more detailed analysis undertaken as input to the PSP relative to the highlevel analysis undertaken for the Armstrong Creek UGP - Up-to-date expectations of development outcomes based on recent development trends. 12

16 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S Non-Retail Commercial Development 3.18 Forecasts of non-retail floorspace at the Armstrong Creek Town Centre were also prepared in the technical report, with the recognition that at higher-order activity centres the extent of non-retail floorspace is difficult to predict with certainty Commercial office uses can be classified in two broad categories: - Shopfront office uses: a wide range of non-retail commercial uses such as banks, real estate agents, travel agents, insurance agents, medical consulting suites and the like will often locate in a shopfront tenancy. These office uses integrate closely with the retail components of activity centres. - Non-Shopfront: these are tenancies which are not are typically used for dedicated office space and which do not have the street-front location and exposure of shopfront tenancies. In general, dedicated office space is occupied by a range of professional, personal and community services which do not require high levels of exposure to passing customers The demand for office space in centres such as the proposed Armstrong Creek Town Centre is generally generated by the resident demand created by the personal and professional needs of the surrounding populations and business sector. On the basis of this resident demand, the technical report supports: - 10,000m 2 of shopfront non-retail uses - 10,000m 2 of non-shopfront office space This provision of office floorspace is less than the 35,000m 2 of office space identified in the Armstrong Creek UGP. In order to generate 35,000m 2 or more of office development, Armstrong Creek Town Centre will need to attract key tenants providing regional and higher order services. These office users, either private or public sector tenants, are able to accommodate large tenant footprints (almost always nonshopfront floorspace) and are driven by broader economy-wide demand, rather than the specific needs of the trade area population and local business sector. Entertainment and Other 3.22 The mix of entertainment uses in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is expected to include: - Cinemas - Gyms and fitness centres (including squash courts, rock climbing and other activities) - Bowling alley - Pubs/bars/live music - Dance/yoga/studios. 13

17 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 3.23 The technical report supports a total entertainment floorspace component at the Armstrong Creek Town Centre of approximately 10,000m 2. This is larger than the 7,000m 2 identified in the Armstrong Creek UGP and will allow for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre to incorporate a significant entertainment component which has the potential to leverage off the tourist visitation generated by the nearby Surf Coast region. Total Retail and Commercial Floorspace Provision 3.24 Overall, the market assessment for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre undertaken in the technical report identifies the potential for approximately 125,000m 2 of retail and commercial floorspace, as summarised in Figure 5. Figure 5 Armstrong Creek Town Centre Indicative Schedule of Retail Uses, 2031 Land Use Floorspace Shop 40,000m 2 Restricted Retail 35,000m 2 Total Retail 75,000m 2 Shopfront Office 10,000m 2 Non-Shopfront Office 25,000m 2 Total Office 35,000m 2 Entertainment 10,000m 2 Other (Indicative ground floor) 5,000m 2 Total 125,000m 2 Source: Essential Economics Chapter Three: Strategic Outcomes and Recommendations (Page 30 to 34) Retail Development Vision 3.25 In Section 3.1 of the technical report, a retail vision for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is articulated. It is this vision that outlines in descriptive terms how the PSP could implement the retail development outcomes identified by the preceding market assessment The description of the retail sector is as follows (Technical Report Page 30): - A vibrant street-based shopping precinct along both side of a future east-west Main Street - The presence of a range of anchor tenants (including supermarkets and discount department stores) which do not necessarily have direct street-frontage, but are designed in a way which encourages street-based activities while retaining customer convenience and amenity 14

18 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S - A dining scene which includes an attractive range of restaurants, cafes and takeaway outlets to encourage street-based activity, both during the daytime and into the evening - Some selected showrooms and larger format stores located on the western fringe of the centre with some exposure to the Surf Coast Highway, and where possible, engage with other town centre uses. Non-Retail Development Vision 3.27 Likewise, Section 3.2 of the technical report provides a vision for non-retail development in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. This vision is described as follows (Technical Report Page 31): - Large site sizes which support mixed use developments that involve ground floor and first floor commercial activities with a possibility of residential uses above this - The creation of a diverse and sophisticated mix of shopfront commercial activities which integrate with retail uses - The provision new dedicated office building stock, although noting that this type of development would generally require substantial pre-commitment of tenants - Locating major entertainment uses in a strategic way which links with the higher intensity retail core and dining and other precincts Importantly, the technical report also notes the reality that mixed use development incorporating residential and commercial activity is not expected to occur to any significant degree in the early stages of development in the town centre This reflects the experience of other higher-order activity centres in growth areas across Australia where development tends to be retail led in the early stages of development, with other complementary land uses being developed as surrounding urban development matures I recognise, and support, the evolution of development formats in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre that are contained within the PSP, as also noted in Point 2.11 of this statement In Section 3.4 of the technical report this theme is considered in more detail, with a generalised discussion on the potential staging of development in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre provided. The conclusion of this discussion is (Technical Report Page 33): Having regard for the longer-term nature of development at the Armstrong Creek, it is recommended that an appropriate degree of flexibility be maintained in determining the amount of land set aside for retail and other non-residential land uses. I continue to support this general principle in the application of the PSP. 15

19 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S Employment Outcomes 3.32 On the basis of the development outcomes identified in the technical report, the total employment that is expected to be generated in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is estimated at a total of 5,460 jobs. Conclusions 3.33 I have reviewed the Armstrong Creek Town Centre Technical Report: Retail and Economic Assessment report prepared in May 2012 and do not consider that any material change to the analysis and recommendations is required I adopt the report for the purposes of the Amendment C267 Panel hearing and attach the report as an Appendix to this witness statement. 16

20 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 4 C O N S I D E R AT I O N S F O R PA N E L 4.1 In this section of my witness statement I respond to issues relevant to my expertise that have been raised in submissions to Amendment C267, and in information that is requested by the Panel in the letter to submitters dated 2 October Restricted Retail 4.2 Precinct 2: Surf Coast Boulevard (Core Frontage) of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP is identified for large-format retail and commercial uses, including restricted retail. This precinct is located immediately west of the Precinct One: Central Core and separates the main street retailing environment of the town centre from the busy Surf Coast Highway. 4.3 Restricted retail includes retail outlets often referred to as bulky goods or homemaker retailing that benefit from the high levels of exposure and accessibility provided by a prominent location on a major road. Furthermore, these are uses that are generally ill-suited to a location in a traditional main street retail environment. 4.4 In general, planning for new activity centres in growth areas seeks to create a sense of distinction between dedicated bulky goods or homemaker retailing and traditional retailing formats better suited to a main-street retailing environment. 4.5 This is my experience on an Australia-wide basis. For example, Rouse Hill Town Centre in Sydney has been designed to have a high intensity core precinct dominated by high intensity uses such as supermarkets, offices and specialty retailing. To the northwest of this core precinct is a so-called frame area that is to accommodate bulky goods and a range of commercial and residential uses. 4.6 Notwithstanding a number of distinct design and development differences, the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP adopts the same general principle as that applied at Rouse Hill of ensuring larger scale land uses do not undermine the operation of the main street retail environment. 4.7 In my professional opinion, the Precinct 2 identified in the PSP is a location that: - In commercial terms is likely to be sought by potential restricted retail tenants - Integrates directly with the traditional town centre uses in Precinct One to the east - Subject to appropriate planning and design controls, could provide an appropriate gateway to the town centre from the Surf Coast Highway. 4.8 It is also my opinion that Precinct Two provides an opportunity to create a development outcome that concentrates the higher activity uses along the Surf Coast Highway in proximity to the town centre. That is, Precinct Two encourages restricted retail and commercial uses that have the greatest synergies with the adjacent main 17

21 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S street retailing area to concentrate in a location where these benefits can be maximised. Use of Floorspace Caps 4.9 The proposed Amendment C267 applies a number of controls to the Armstrong Creek Town Centre in the form of floorspace caps I wish to point out that the Retail and Economics Assessment technical report does not specifically consider the application of floorspace caps in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. Rather, the objective of the report was to identify potential and preferred development outcomes in the town centre I note that floorspace caps have been removed from the Commercial Zones applying in metropolitan Melbourne as a result of the recent planning reforms. However, I also note that the use of floorspace caps is retained in the Urban Growth Zone and areas in in the Commercial 1 Zone located in regional Victoria In my opinion, the use of floorspace caps is a planning policy tool that has merit where: - It is required to ensure the protection of an existing hierarchy of activity centres (and in particular regional areas), - It is required to promote the development of a new hierarchy of centres, and - It is required to support the achievement of a particular urban development outcome In general, the need for the application of floorspace caps is typically most appropriate in achieving the above objectives in: - Urban Growth Areas: where the use of floorspace caps is required to create a sense of hierarchy where none previously existed (as the area was undeveloped), and to create a framework for the creation of a hierarchy that has been previously determined by planning policy (such as a PSP) - Regional Areas: where town centres and activity centres, as well as the hierarchies in which they operate, tend to be more vulnerable to trading and competitive impacts due to the smaller population base and the greater distance between population centres On this basis, in my view the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is appropriate for considering the application of floorspace caps In my view, there is some merit in the suggestion of Woolworths in their submission (Submission 11) to Amendment C267 that, in the longer-term, floorspace caps in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre may be removed As an urban area matures and grows, the justification for, and benefits from, the application of floorspace caps is reduced. This is certainly the case in established areas 18

22 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S of metropolitan Melbourne and may also be the case for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre at some time in the future. Consistency of Floorspace with Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan 4.17 The Panel has requested clarification on the inconsistency between the 40,000m 2 retail floorspace cap proposed for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre and the 35,000m 2 retail floorspace cap for all sub-regional town centres included in the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan (Letter 2 October Page 3) My analysis when undertaking the technical report sought to ensure that the analysis explicitly took into account the directions of the Armstrong Creek UGP, but was independent of it where appropriate In my view, allowing 40,000m 2 of traditional retail development at the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is consistent with an outcome that: - Is supported by market demand - Maximises economic and consumer benefits of the town centre - Is consistent with the operation of the activity centres hierarchy in the growth area and in Geelong In practical terms, a shopper visiting an activity centre containing 35,000m 2 of retail floorspace, or alternatively 40,000m 2 of retail floorspace, would in general terms not identify any significant difference between the two However, from a centres planning point-of-view, the 5,000m 2 difference at the Armstrong Creek Town Centre: - Maximises economic and consumer benefits of the town centre (as in Point 4.19 above) - Allows for a greater range of specialty shops and other retail formats - Will assist in creating a true main street retailing environment - Supports a development outcome that benefits existing stakeholders in the town centre by creating some additional flexibility in centre design I note that Council has now lowered the shop floorspace cap in Precinct One: Central Core to 35,000m 2, from the original 40,000m 2 originally exhibited My understanding is that this relates to the hierarchy of centres identified in the Clause (Page 8) of the Greater Geelong Planning Scheme that identifies 35,000m 2 as the upper limit of the indicative floorspace for sub-regional centres I do not make any specific comment on the change as I am not a qualified planner, except to note that the 35,000m 2 figure in the planning scheme is intended as an indicative upper limit. The indicative nature of this limit is articulated in both the MSS 19

23 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S contained in the Greater Geelong Planning Scheme and the Geelong Retail Strategy 2006 (of which I was principal author) on which that component of the MSS is based My views as a land use economist on the development potential at the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is articulated in the technical report attached as an appendix to this witness statement. That is, on the basis of the analysis in the technical report I support a planning framework that allows for the provision of 40,000m 2 of retail floorspace in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. 20

24 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 5 C O N C LU S I O N S 5.1 In my opinion, the proposed Amendment C267 provides a framework for the development of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre that has been thoroughly researched and tested through the PSP process and previous studies, including the Armstrong Creek UGP. 5.2 The development format for the town centre embraces a main street style environment for the high intensity core of the centre, and seeks to balance this with the practical commercial and economic imperatives. 5.3 I strongly support the objectives of the Amendment in seeking to create a transitoriented town centre that supports a wide mix of land uses. I believe that the Amendment is aspiring to create a town centre that does things better than normal from a land use planning perspective. The high aspirations of Council for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre were impressed on me early in the PSP process. 5.4 In general, the AmendmentC267 does provide a high level of prescription in terms of particular land use and development outcomes. If this prescription is subsequently applied with an appropriate degree of realism and a recognition of real-world commercial and economic realities, I am satisfied that this will be to the long-term benefit of the role and function of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, as well as the creation of a net community benefit. 5.5 The technical report attached to this witness statement outlines my rationale and conclusions in relation to the development outcomes sought for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. I am satisfied that the Amendment C267 is generally consistent with the outcomes supported in the technical report. 5.6 I support Amendment C267 in view of its ability to support the creation of an Armstrong Creek Town Centre that reflects the stated objectives for the centre as articulated in the Armstrong Creek UGP and other relevant planning policies. Declaration I have made all the inquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and no matters of significance that I regard as relevant have to my knowledge been withheld. Sean Stephens Managing Partner and Senior Economist Essential Economics Pty Ltd 28 October

25 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 6 AT TA C H M E N T: C V 22

26 CURRICULUM VITAE Sean Stephens B. Econ (Honours) Managing Partner Introduction Sean is Managing Partner at Essential Economics. He has over ten years experience in undertaking economic assessments associated with urban development projects and regional economic development. Sean has particular expertise in undertaking market assessments, location analysis and impact assessments for retail commercial developments, and brings a detailed knowledge of the Australian property market to projects. Sean is a regular contributor to industry and media commentary. He also regularly acts as an expert witness in planning and legal forums nationally, and is also often engaged in a client advocacy role. Disciplines, Skills, Qualifications Sean has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of Newcastle. He is on the Property Council of Australia (Victoria) Retail Committee and is a member of the Victorian Planning and Environmental Law Association (VPELA) and Urban Land Institute (ULI). Sean is a property economist with experience working on a diverse range of projects across Australia for high profile clients. He has worked on market feasibility assessments for major retail developments and has also provided strategic property advice to property owners, industry and government agencies including the Defence Housing Australia, Bunnings, Mirvac, David Jones, Westfield, Costco, ALDI, AMP, Woolworths, Metcash/IGA, Villawood Properties, Leightons Properties and Austexx. Recent projects include activity centre and CBD strategies, and an assessment of the economic benefits of Main Street retailing. Sean is also heavily involved in retail and activity centre planning nationally for both the public and private sectors. Academic Qualifications Bachelor of Economics (Honours) University of Newcastle, 1999 Present positions Director and Managing Partner, Essential Economics Pty Ltd Past positions Consultant, JHD Advisors, ESSENTIAL ECONOMICS PTY LTD 96 PELHAM STREET CARLTON T F mail@essentialeconomics.com

27 CURRICULUM VITAE (Sean Stephens continued) Relevant Experience Retail and Commercial Feasibility and Location Assessments Costco national store roll out (Ongoing) Bunnings national store roll out (Ongoing) Chatswood Post Office Redevelopment Market Assessment, for Australia Post Belmont Park Racecourse Development Peer Review, for Golden River Developments Rosella Site Market Assessment, for Lasky Raizon Group Morwell East Commercial Development Market Assessment, for SM Urban Leopold Town Centre Market Assessment, for Lascorp Townsville Retail Assessment, for Austexx Gateway Site Darwin Preliminary Market Assessment, for TMG Developments Lyndhurst Activity Centre Market Assessment, for Villawood Properties Cardinia Road Activity Centre Market Assessment, for VicUrban Homemaker Retail Assessment (Melbourne), for Leightons Properties Wyong Retail Assessments, for Henry Kendall Group Shepparton Neighbourhood Centre Market Assessment, for Copulos Group Bairnsdale Market Assessment, for Dahlsens Park Street Port Macquarie Economic Impact Assessment, for Mirvac Deer Park- Robinsons Road Shopping Centre Assessment, for Glen Alpine Properties Shepparton North Neighbourhood Centre Assessment, for Fairley s IGA Mudgee Retail Assessment, for private client Shepparton Drive-In Site Retail Assessment, for private client Outlet Centre National Roll Out Strategy, for private client Rowville ALDI Economic Impact Assessment, for Gearon Group Canberra Airport Retail Development Economic Impact Assessment, for Canberra International Airport Patterson Lakes Market Assessment, for Knowles Group Ringwood Transit City - Retail Assessment, for VicUrban Peninsula Lifestyle Centre Market Assessment, for Leightons Property Berowra Supermarket Assessment, for Ritchies IGA Pakington Street Supermarket Assessment, for Metcash Cardinia Lakes Retail Floorspace Assessment, for Cardinia Shire Council Epping North Project Activity Centre Analysis, for AV Jennings Tarneit Convenience Centre Retail Assessment, for Wilbow Corporation Essendon Airport Retail and Outlet Centre Development Retail Needs and Economic Impact Assessment, for Essendon Airport Limited Rocklea Home Centre Economic Impact Assessment, for private client Mernda Precinct Activity Centre Commercial Assessment, for Metricon Developments Sneydes Road Convenience Activity Centre Commercial Assessment, for Central Equity Retail Economic Assessment for Proposed ALDI Store at Corio, ALDI Stores Hastings Homemaker Centre Economic Impact Assessment, for private client Former Pentridge Prison Site Retail Assessment, for Pentridge Village Shell Road Ocean Grove Expert Witness Statement Yarra Glen Shopping Centre Economic Impact Assessment, for private client ESSENTIAL ECONOMICS PTY LTD 96 PELHAM STREET CARLTON T F mail@essentialeconomics.com

28 CURRICULUM VITAE (Sean Stephens continued) Thomastown Supa Centre Trade Area Analysis, for Life Development Group Essendon Airport Retail Development Assessment of Catchment Spending Potential, for Essendon Airport Pty Ltd Economic Assessments and Modelling PFOS Control Measures Cost-Benefit Analysis, for Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities (SEWPaC) Essendon Football Club Re-location Options Analysis, Essendon Football Club ACT Waste Pricing Strategy, for ACT NOWaste Contaminated Soils Market Review, for EPA Victoria Economic and Social Benefits Assessment, Melbourne Racing Club Measuring Economic Benefit of Dwelling Construction and Maintenance Programs of DHA, for Defence Housing Australia Waste and Resource Management Economic and Spatial Analysis, for Sustainability Victoria Morwell East Industrial Land Analysis, for SM Urban Devonport Economic Baseline Analysis, for City of Devonport Economic Benefits of Shepparton Show Me, for City of Greater Shepparton Strategic Planning for Town Centres and Activity Centres Noble Park Retail and Commercial Analysis, for DPCD and City of Greater Dandenong Springvale Retail and Commercial Analysis, for DPCD and City of Greater Dandenong City of Swan Retail Needs Assessment, for City of Swan Melbourne CBD Retail Review, for City of Melbourne Boroondara Activity Centres Analysis, for City of Boroondara Maldon Town Centre Review, for Mount Alexander Shire Benalla CBD Development Strategy, for Benalla Rural City Council Devonport Retail Study, for City of Devonport Activity Centres Review Technical Report-Planning Strategy for Greater Adelaide, for Planning SA Cardinia Small Towns Project, for Shire of Cardinia Maldon Economic Futures Project, for Mt Alexander Shire Central West Structure Plan, for Central West Business Park and City of Maribyrnong Wyndham Activity Centres Strategy, for City of Wyndham Kew Junction Structure Plan, for City of Boroondara Bayside Major Activity Centre Advice, for City of Bayside Glenferrie Structure Plan, for City of Boroondara Geelong Retail Strategy, for City of Greater Geelong Torquay and Jan Juc Retail Review Retail Assessment, for Surf Coast Shire Croydon Structure Plan - Retail and Commercial Assessment, City of Maroondah City of Bayside Major Activity Centres Project, for City of Bayside ESSENTIAL ECONOMICS PTY LTD 96 PELHAM STREET CARLTON T F mail@essentialeconomics.com

29 A M E N D M E N T C G E E L O N G P L A N N I N G S C H E M E E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E S E A N A N D R E W S T E P H E N S 7 AT TA C H M E N T: T ECHNICA L R E P O RT 23

30 Armstrong Creek Town Centre Technical Report: Retail and Economics Assessment Prepared for Tract Consultants and The City of Greater Geelong by Essential Economics Pty Ltd M a y

31 Authorship Report stage Author Date Review Date Draft report Sean Stephens and Andrew Rossiter 9 February 2012 Matt Lee 9 February 2012 Final draft report Sean Stephens 7 March 2012 Client April 2012 Final report Sean Stephens 11 May 2012 Disclaimer Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material and the integrity of the analysis presented herein, Essential Economics Pty Ltd accepts no liability for any actions taken on the basis of its contents. Contact details For further details please contact: Essential Economics Pty Ltd 96 Pelham Street Carlton Victoria 3053 Australia PH FAX mail@essentialeconomics.com WEB ABN Job Code: 11158

32 Contents Introduction Background and Town Centre Development Context Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area Armstrong Creek Town Centre Context for Development of the Town Centre Summary Market Assessment Trade Area Definition Trade Area Population Analysis Retail Market Assessment Non-Retail Commercial Development Potential Conclusion Strategic Outcomes and Recommendations Retail Development Vision for Town Centre Non-Retail Development Vision for Town Centre Indicative Land Requirements for Town Centre Potential Staging Considerations for Town Centre Employment Outcomes Critical Success Factors Conclusion Summary of Findings... 35

33 I N T R O D U C T I O N Tract Consultants has been engaged by the City of Greater Geelong as lead consultants in the preparation of a Precinct Structure Plan (PSP) for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. The Armstrong Creek Town Centre has been identified as the location for a Major Activity Area serving residents in the Armstrong Creek Growth Area and people living to the south-west of urban Geelong. Essential Economics has been commissioned to prepare a technical report as input to the PSP, focussing on aspects relating to the retail and commercial elements of the Town Centre, and the likely economic outcomes generated in the PSP area. The technical report has been prepared in order to respond to the requirements for the preparation of PSPs, as described in the Precinct Structure Planning Guidelines. In particular, the scope of the report includes: 1 Market demand analysis of the retail and commercial development potential within the town centre, and in the context of other centres planned for the wider growth area. 2 Recommendation on the types of uses, scale (quantum of floorspace) and likely components of the town centre, including retail, commercial office, entertainment and other uses. 3 Analysis of land requirements to accommodate the identified uses, as input to an overall land budget for the PSP area. 4 Estimates of local employment generation at the town centre, and analysis of access to other employment opportunities in the wider region. The analysis contained in this report builds on work already undertaken in the preparation of the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan. In particular, the urban growth plan sets out the broad expectations for different land uses in the town centre, comprising: Traditional town centre retail uses: 35,000m 2 Homemaker retail uses: 25,000m 2 Commercial office: 35,000m 2 Entertainment/recreation: 7,000m 2 Community services: 35,000m 2. 1

34 Terms and Definitions The following terms and definitions are adopted for the purposes of this report. Retail Activity Retail activity is defined in this report as the Retail Trade industry division according to the industry classifications used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industry Classification 2006 (ANZSIC2006), but modified to exclude: Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts retailing Garden supplies retailing Marine equipment retailing Non-store retailing. The definition used in this report is consistent with other approaches in undertaking retail-economic analysis in Australia. It is important to note that a range of non-retail uses often operate in conjunction with and/or adjacent to many retail traders. These uses include professional offices, travel agencies, lotto and gaming outlets, banks and other financial institutions, light industrial activities, and so on. These non-retail functions are together considered as part of the commercial office assessment. Retail Categories In this report, retail floorspace and retail expenditure is divided into three broad product categories and a number of sub-categories. These categories and sub-categories are defined as follows: Food, liquor and groceries (FLG), which comprises household spending on take-home food, groceries and liquor. This type of spending is usually directed to retail stores such as supermarkets, fresh food stores, fresh food markets, bakeries, butchers, and other specialist traders. Food catering, which includes household spending at cafés, restaurants and take-away food outlets. Non-food retailing, including spending on apparel, homewares, bulky items, and other leisure and general merchandise. Retail services, which comprises household spending on services such as hair dressing, dry cleaning, video hire, and optometry. 2

35 1 B A C KG R O U N D A N D TOW N C E N T R E D E V E LO P M E N T C O N T E X T This Chapter presents a description of the proposed Armstrong Creek Town Centre and the strategic land use context relevant to its development. 1.1 Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area Description Armstrong Creek is a major urban growth area located on the southern fringe of the City of Greater Geelong. Comprising approximately 2,600 hectares of previously rural land, the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area is located immediately south of the existing Geelong urban area including the suburbs of Grovedale and Marshall. The Surf Coast Highway is a major north-south connector road that runs through the middle of the growth area and is the main link between Geelong and the Surf Coast region. Torquay lies approximately 7km south of the southern boundary of the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area, while the railway line linking Geelong and Warrnambool is immediately north of Armstrong Creek. The Barwon River is located to the east while land to the west of the growth area is predominantly rural in nature. Over the next 20 years, up to 75% of the population growth in the City of Greater Geelong is expected to be accommodated in the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area. Development at Armstrong Creek is a response to the current lack of suitably serviced and zoned land available in the Geelong region. Development of the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area was initiated in late 2011 at the Warralily estate in the south-east of the growth area. Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan (UGP) The Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan (UGP) was adopted in May 2008, and is described as one of the largest and most important strategic projects undertaken by the City of Greater Geelong. An updated version of the framework established in the UGP was adopted in The Armstrong Creek UGP provides a comprehensive framework for development of the urban growth area, in accordance with the following vision: The Armstrong Creek urban growth area will be developed into a sustainable community that sets new benchmarks in best practice urban development. Natural and cultural features will be protected and enhanced to create a distinct urban character. Armstrong Creek will become a highly sought-after location for living, working and recreation, forming an attractive addition to Geelong (Page 17). The UGP aims to achieve this vision by utilising best practice urban development planning principles, with an emphasis on environmental sustainability, water sensitive urban design, social/community needs and a provision of a range of residential densities and styles. 3

36 Some of the main objectives identified in the Armstrong Creek UGP include: To provide a wide range of housing types and densities in an urban structure based on walkable neighbourhoods, public transport and mixed use activity centres To establish a network of mixed use activity centres providing retail, community and educational facilities for the incoming Armstrong Creek community To create an economic and employment structure that complements the broader Geelong region while providing employment areas, business opportunities and local jobs To ensure the provision of a comprehensive and well-connected network of open space recreation facilities To ensure the orderly and controlled development of Armstrong Creek Preliminary analysis undertaken for the UGP suggests that, at full development, Armstrong Creek would comprise approximately 22,000 new households, accommodating approximately 54,000 residents. Approximately 23,000 jobs are expected to be provided within the growth area when fully developed. According to the development framework identified in the UGP, this employment target of 23,000 jobs is to be achieved on the following basis: Employment Areas: 15,350 jobs Activity Centres: 4,405 jobs Home-Based Businesses: 2,200 jobs Other: 1,000 jobs Precincts The Armstrong Creek UGP identifies seven precincts in the growth area (refer Map 1.1), which have been defined based on factors such as land ownership and drainage catchments. Precinct Structure Plans are being prepared for these precincts, similar to the PSP process currently undertaken by the Growth Areas Authority in metropolitan Melbourne. The Armstrong Creek Town Centre Precinct is located alongside the Surf Coast Highway in a central position with respect to the growth area. Originally defined as the Major Activity Centre Precinct (MAC) in the Armstrong Creek UGP, the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is intended to operate as a Major Activity Centre as defined in the hierarchy of activity centres shown in the UGP. PSPs have already been developed for the Armstrong Creek East Precinct (ACEP) and the Armstrong Creek North East Industrial Precinct (NEIP) respectively. The analysis contained in this report is input to the PSP currently being prepared for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre precinct. 4

37 Map 1.1 Armstrong Creek Growth Area Precincts Source: Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Plan Produced By: Essential Economics with MapInfo and StreetPro 5

38 Activity Centre Hierarchy The Armstrong Creek UGP identifies an activity centre hierarchy to accommodate the provision of retail shopping and associated uses such as commercial office and community services. The activity centre hierarchy identified in the Armstrong Creek UGP includes: Major Activity Centre: A Major Activity Centre (MAC) incorporating sub-regional and other functions in a central location on the eastern side of the Surf Coast Highway. This centre, now called the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is intended to complement the role of the Geelong Central Activities Area, although it will serve its own distinct trade area. Neighbourhood Activity Centres: Two Neighbourhood Activity Centres (NACs) providing day-today retail and other services are proposed, one located in the Horseshoe Bend precinct, and the other located in the Armstrong Creek East precinct. Each of these NACs is to be supported by a full-line supermarket with total retail floorspace between 6,000m² and 7,000m². A third smaller NAC is now proposed for the Armstrong West Precinct and is currently the subject of a PSP process. Local Activity Centres: A number of Local Activity Centres (LACs) are planned to provide limited convenience based retailing in areas without direct access to the larger centres. According to the UGP, a total combined retail floorspace component of approximately 7,500m² is expected across all LACs in the growth area. 1.2 Armstrong Creek Town Centre Since the preparation of the Armstrong Creek UGP, the boundary of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre boundary has extended to the south-east to include land formerly part of the Horseshoe Bend precinct; this is shown in Map 1.1. This boundary change means that the Armstrong Creek Town Centre precinct now incorporates approximately 92.7 hectares of land. Current planning for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre envisages a full range of convenience and comparison retail together with a wide range of community facilities and services, entertainment and employment opportunities. A high-density residential component is also expected according to the strategic direction established in the Armstrong Creek UGP. According to preliminary development expectations provided in the Armstrong Creek UGP, the Armstrong Creek Town Centre could comprise: 35,000m 2 of retail floorspace This is expected to include a full range of convenience and comparison retail, anchored by discount department stores, supermarkets, speciality stores. 25,000m 2 of restricted retail floorspace Including bulky goods (homemaker) retailing such as hardware, furniture, whitegoods and other store types requiring large display and storage areas. 7,000m 2 of entertainment floorspace Including tavern, cinema and other entertainment uses. 35,000m 2 of office floorspace This will incorporate both commercial and government offices. 6

39 35,000m 2 of community services floorspace Expected to include a wide range of community facilities, education services and health services. It is understood that the City of Greater Geelong are seeking an outcome for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre which represents best-practice planning and urban design for an activity centre in a residential growth area. For this reason, Council is proposing that the transit corridor identified in the Armstrong Creek UGP which runs along the eastern parts of the Town Centre precinct accommodates a rapid bus service in the short term, with an upgrade to a dedicated passenger rail service in the longer term. Development of a dedicated rail link would enhance the already strong locational characteristics of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre which has good road access provided by the Surf Coast Highway, and is well-positioned to serve the strong population growth forecast for the surrounding region over the next 20 years (refer Chapter 2). The need for strong transport linkages between the Armstrong Creek Town Centre and the balance of the surrounding growth area is also an important consideration for the completion of the PSP. 1.3 Context for Development of the Town Centre In determining development outcomes at the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, the following factors are of particular relevance to the preparation of the PSP. 1 Existing Analysis and Development Expectations In planning for the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area, considerable analysis and planning for the town centre has already been undertaken through the development of the UGP and a subsequent Enquiry by Design process which identified a possible design outcome. These existing resources are an important input to the preparation of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP. 2 Multiple Landholdings The Armstrong Creek Town Centre precinct is under multiple ownership, with a total of 11 separate landholdings. This ownership structure has a strong influence on the potential layout of the Town Centre and how individual retail and commercial components can be delivered, especially during the initial stages of development. Over time, the ownership structure of the town centre is expected to change as land is sold and subdivided. As such, the development of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre will occur alongside an evolving ownership structure. 3 Current Planning and Development Considerations The development framework for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre needs to reflect current planning agreements already established between key stakeholders such as Woolworths and the Coles Group. These entities control large sites within the Town Centre and will have a significant influence on the timing, scale and nature of development. Specifically, an agreement has been reached whereby the interface between the Woolworths and Coles sites will occur across an east-west Main Street which will be anchored by major tenants controlled by both retailer groups. This land development pattern is taken into account in this report. 7

40 4 Aspirational Approach to Town Centre Development In planning for the development of the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, Council is seeking an aspirational outcome that maximises the quality, scale and diversity of development outcomes in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. 1.4 Summary Armstrong Creek will accommodate up to 75% of the population growth in the City of Greater Geelong over the next 20 years. The activity centre hierarchy developed to serve this area includes the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, which is anticipated to provide a full range of convenience and comparison shopping services, together with a healthy commercial office sector, a wide range of community facilities, entertainment and employment opportunities. Preliminary development expectations provided in the Armstrong Creek UGP suggest a Town Centre comprising approximately 60,000m² of retail floorspace, 35,000m² of office floorspace, and substantial associated community and entertainment uses. The Town Centre will be supported by two or three Neighbourhood Activity Centres in surrounding precincts, each anchored by a full-line supermarket; and possibly six Local Activity Centres with a total of approximately 7,500m² of retail floorspace. Armstrong Creek has strong north-south linkages provided by the Surf Coast Highway, and is well positioned to serve the strong population growth forecast for the surrounding region. It is important that the Armstrong Creek Town Centre PSP considers the existing analysis already undertaken for the UGP, development expectations by major land owners, the current ownership structure and multiple landholdings within the precinct, and current planning and development expectations. It is also important that an aspirational outcome is sought that maximises the quality, scale and diversity of development outcomes in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. 8

41 2 M A R K E T A S S E S S M E N T This chapter of the report presents a market assessment of proposed land uses in the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, taking into account the latest available information inputs. The emphasis for this section is to provide confirmation of the broad scale and distribution of land use types identified in the UGP, and provide additional information on the types of activities, formats, and land budget requirements. 2.1 Trade Area Definition A trade area describes the geographic region within which a centre is an important destination for the type of retail and other facilities present at that centre, and is defined with reference to factors that typically influence the likely trading extent of any activity centre. These factors include (among others): The location and relative attractiveness of competing centres/outlets The extent of road access to the centre, including consideration of barriers such as rail lines, freeways, etc. Public transport access, as well as accessibility from other non-motorised forms of transport (as relevant) The presence or otherwise of physical barriers such as major roads, rivers, farmland, etc. Exposure to passing traffic Existing travel patterns such as travel to work. A major consideration for the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is the actual form of development proposed, the retail and other tenants involved, the centre s overall attractiveness to residents of the surrounding region, and its functional role relative to competing centres. For the proposed Armstrong Creek Town Centre, which is to be located on a high profile site with frontage to the Surf Coast Highway and strong road and other transportation links, the trade area is extensive, reflecting the opportunity to attract people from a wide surrounding region. The trade area that would be served by the Armstrong Creek Town Centre is shown in Map 2.1, and comprises: Primary Trade Area (PTA): which includes the proposed Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Area and adjacent rural areas. The PTA broadly extends along the Surf Coast Highway from the railway Line in the north to the Lower Dundee/Mount Dundee Road intersection in the south. It is bound by the Barwon River to the east and Anglesea Road to the west. The PTA represents the area in which the Armstrong Creek Town Centre will generate its highest market share for subregional type shopping facilities. Secondary North Trade Area (STA-North): which includes parts of the established residential suburb of Grovedale with convenient road access along the Surf Coast Highway. The STA-North is broadly defined by Colac Road to the north, the Geelong Colac Railway Line to the south, Barwarre Road to the east, and Anglesea Road to the west. 9

42 Secondary East Trade Area (STA-East): includes the beachside townships of Breamlea and Barwon Heads, as well as surrounding rural areas. Residents of this trade area sector will have easy access to the Armstrong Creek Town Centre via Barwon Heads Road Secondary South (STA-South): extends south of the PTA to include Torquay and Jan Juc where residents will have quick and convenient access to the Armstrong Creek Town Centre via the Surf Coast Highway. This trade area sector also includes the townships of Connewarre in the east and Moriac, Modewarre and Bells beach to the west. Tertiary Trade Area (TTA): which includes areas further west of the STA-South and includes the coastal townships of Anglesea, Aireys Inlet, Fairhaven and Lorne. The TTA extends into adjoining rural areas and national park, generally as far as Cape Otway Road. Together, the Primary and Secondary trade areas are referred to as the Main Trade Area (MTA). The MTA is particularly important from an analytical point of view as it represents the region in which the Armstrong Creek Town Centre will be a particularly important retail and business service centre. The Tertiary trade area, in combination with the MTA, forms the total trade area served by the Armstrong Creek Town Centre. 2.2 Trade Area Population Analysis Regional Trends A review of regional population trends shows that the combined population of the City of Greater Geelong and Surf Coast Shire in 2010 was 246,240 residents, an increase from 205,030 residents in This represents an overall growth rate of approximately +2,940 residents pa, or +1.3% pa over this period. Over the period 1996 to 2010, population growth in the City of Greater Geelong accelerated from a low of +0.8% per annum between 1996 and 2001, to +1.1% between 2001 and 2006, and then to +1.7% pa between 2006 and The accelerating growth path reflects relatively strong economic conditions in the region and the increased popularity of Geelong as a place to live. Table 2.1: Population Growth in City of Greater Geelong and Surf Coast Shire, 1996 to Population (no.) City of Greater Geelong 187, , , ,070 Surf Coast Shire 17,850 20,870 22,800 26,170 Total 205, , , ,240 Average Annual Growth (%) City of Greater Geelong +0.8% +1.1% +1.7% Surf Coast Shire +3.2% +1.8% +3.5% Total +1.0% +1.2% +1.5% Average Annual Growth (no.) City of Greater Geelong +1,460 +2,240 +3,600 Surf Coast Shire Total +2,060 +2,630 +4,440 Source: Essential Economics, ABS Regional Population Statistics Note: Totals subject to rounding 10

43 Map 2.1: Armstrong Creek Town Centre, Trade Area Wide View Source: Essential Economics with MapInfo and StreetPro 11

44 Map 2.2: Armstrong Creek Town Centre Trade Area Close View Source: Essential Economics with MapInfo and StreetPro 12

45 The rate of recent population growth experienced in the City of Greater Geelong is broadly comparable to that of other major regional centres across Australia. Between 2006 and 2010, Geelong experienced a higher growth rate than the major industrial cities of Newcastle and Wollongong, a similar rate to regional cities such as Ballarat and Bunbury, and a slower rate compared with the tropical growth centres of Cairns and Townsville. Armstrong Creek Residential Growth Outlook It is important that planning for the town centre takes into account the forecast scale and nature of residential development and population growth within Armstrong Creek. The following analysis is based on the latest available data and information inputs. Dwelling Capacity At present, the dwelling capacity of the Armstrong Creek urban growth area is estimated at approximately 25,000 dwellings, which is higher than the 22,000 dwellings identified as a preliminary estimate in the Armstrong Creek UGP. These current dwelling estimates reflect an average net dwelling density of approximately 16 dwellings per hectare based on approximately 60% of the growth area being available for residential development after accounting for schools, open space, and other non-residential uses. Dwelling Types Planning for the Armstrong Creek urban growth area has sought to incorporate a wide range of dwelling types, with a lower share of conventional detached dwellings compared with other growth areas. Medium density housing development in the order of 20 dwellings per hectare is being sought immediately surrounding activity centres and in other suitable locations. Within activity centres (including the Armstrong Creek Town Centre), high density residential formats are also supported, including unit and apartment style development. According to information provided by Council, the dwelling mix in Armstrong Creek is anticipated to be as follows: Conventional density 70% or 18,000 dwellings Medium density 25% or 6,000 dwellings High density 5% or 1,000 dwellings. Average Household Size Forecasts of the average household size in Armstrong Creek have been prepared with reference to the features of households in comparable areas, and taking into account forecasts of household size prepared by DPCD and id Consulting which indicate a long-term decline in the average number of people per household. 13