Benefits Analysis of a Departure Management Prototype for the New York Area

Transcription

1 Benefits Analysis of a Departure Management Prototype for the New York Area MITRE: James DeArmon Norma Taber Hilton Bateman Lixia Song Tudor Masek FAA: Daniel Gilani For ATM2013, Jun 2013 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Case No The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Addressing Challenges to Managing Departures Effectively 2 Demand/Capacity Challenges: Impacted Fixes/Routes No route available FAA/MITRE MITRE It is difficult to assign the right routes to the right flights at the right time: Information gaps lead to inefficient, reactive operations Staying ahead of the tactical problem requires actionable information Lack of common understanding creates uncertainty among decision makers The point of action is too far removed from the point of decision making Departure queue sequencing is hard to align with available capacity

3 Reviewing Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) Prototype Capabilities 3 Integrated Traffic A and Weather Map Fix Demand B Table Flight List C Route Impact D and Demand Table Route Options List E

4 Identifying IDRP Prototype Use Cases 4 Conducted New York area observations in 2011 and 2012 Identified typical traffic management events Selected instances of most common events observed Departures from 4 major New York area airports over 5 hours

5 Estimating Benefits of Use Cases: Simple Queuing Model 5 Type 1: Miles-in-trail (MIT) at fix Aircraft is ready for take-off... but must wait since fix is busy (in-trail spacing) Demand Excess demand from Hour 1 Threshold Spills over to Hour 2, suffering delay Hour Type 2 : Minutes-in-trail (MINIT) off airport Aircraft is ready for take-off 5-minute spacing... but must wait due to minutes-in-trail restriction

6 Use Case 1: Offload from Saturated Fix 6 On 19 July 2011, at 2000 GMT ELIOT: 20 Miles-In-Trail (MIT) restriction for the next 2 hours COATE: adequate capacity to accommodate offloads from ELIOT COATE ELIOT

7 Use Case 1: Offload From Saturated Fix 7 Flight List for ELIOT Route Options List COATE Offload

8 8 Estimating Benefits of Use Case 1 With IDRP: demand (after offloads) and capacity for 3 hours Hour (GMT) Demand Capacity (20 MIT) No IDRP: assume offloads not performed Hour (GMT) Demand Capacity (20 MIT) Queuing model results: 790 flight minutes of delay for No IDRP, 347 for With IDRP savings of 443 flight minutes At $36/minute for airline direct operating costs: $15,948 savings At $86/minute for passenger value of time: $38,098 savings

9 Understanding TMIs with Interacting Surface Flows 9 LARRY 10 MIT reflect as fix threshold CURLY MOE 5 MINIT? 7 MINIT? departure delays to all three fixes are linked Airport A Airport B

10 Use Case 2: Airport Load Balancing June 2011, 0915 GMT: flights routed over ELIOT to avoid storm ELIOT Typical solution: 5 Minutes-in-trail (MINIT) from each airport for ELIOT departures, assuming balanced demand

11 Use Case 2: Departure Runway Load Balancing 11 LGA Departure Queue IDRP showed LGA contributed many more flights than EWR Traffic manager chose to apply 7 MINIT at EWR, no restrictions on LGA EWR Departure Queue Flights over ELIOT would require additional 3 minutes spacing if subject to 5 MINIT restriction

12 12 Estimating Benefits of Use Case 2 With IDRP: LGA Runway 13 departures free flowing Hour (GMT) Demand Runway Capacity No IDRP: nominal flow management action of 5 MINIT for LGA departures over ELIOT departure fix Hour (GMT) Demand (Effective) Runway Capacity Queuing model results: 228 flight minutes of delay for No IDRP, 0 for With IDRP savings of 228 flight minutes At $36/minute for airline direct operating costs: $8,208 savings At $86/minute for passenger value of time: $19,608 savings

13 Use Case 3: Offload to Fix, Plus Diverging Departures 13 On 4 June 2012, at 1345 GMT New York departure automation reported delays at LGA reached 30 minutes, as seen in this log entry IDRP showed 25 aircraft were in the LGA departure queue LGA Departure Queue

14 Use Case 3: Offload to Fix, Plus Diverging Departures 14 LGA Departure Queue LGA Runways Map source: FAA ( CONEY to RBV TNNIS to BIGGY

15 15 Estimating Benefits of Use Case 3 With IDRP: offload LGA departures to RBV, with diverging departures Hour Demand Capacity No IDRP: no offloads Hour Demand Capacity Queuing model results: 765 flight minutes of delay for No IDRP, 551 for With IDRP savings of 214 flight minutes At $36/minute for airline direct operating costs: $7,704 savings At $86/minute for passenger value of time: $18,404 savings

16 Understanding Significance of Results 16 Achieved important delay and cost savings to air carriers As a result of moderate intervention by traffic flow managers Action taken in a selective and focused manner Resulted from common situations, occurring every day or at least several times per week Annual basis hundreds of times for each use case, therefore significant annual benefit Example: Single use per business day in New York (260 days per year) Average savings per day of approximately $36,000 Annual savings of $9.4 million in New York If similar at 4 other locations total savings $47 million per year

17 Validating Queuing Model 17 Developed alternate model for what-if modeling in IDRP prototype; approach is discrete event simulation Added model elements beyond simple queuing model Individual flights modeled Nominal take-off spacing, plus airspace constraints Secondary impact of one flight stuck in queue behind another Multiple departure runways; multiple feeder taxiing queues For validation, exercised model on Use Case 2 Estimated benefit of IDRP per simulation: about twice that of simple queuing model Result plausible in light of secondary delay in simulation We conjecture that the two models generate upper/lower bounds on an answer

18 Summarizing This Talk 18 Deployed and evaluated Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) in the New York area Studied use cases representing typical events to compare delay with and without IDRP use Found benefits estimated at $7-16k saved in airline direct operating costs and $18-38k in passenger value of time per event, projected to total yearly savings of $9.4 million Projected savings at 4 similar locations would be $47 million per year total

19 19 This is the copyright work of The MITRE Corporation and was produced for the U.S. Government under Contract Number DTFAWA-10-C and is subject to Federal Aviation Administration Acquisition Management System Clause , Rights in Data-General, Alt. III and Alt. IV (Oct. 1996). No other use other than that granted to the U.S. Government, or to those acting on behalf of the U.S. Government, under that Clause is authorized without the express written permission of The MITRE Corporation. For further information, please contact The MITRE Corporation, Contract Office, 7515 Colshire Drive, McLean, VA 22102, (703) The contents of this material reflect the views of the author and/or the Director of the Center for Advanced Aviation System Development, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or Department of Transportation (DOT). Neither the FAA nor the DOT makes any warranty or guarantee, or promise, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of the views expressed herein The MITRE Corporation. The Government retains a nonexclusive, royalty-free right to publish or reproduce this document, or to allow others to do so, for Government Purposes Only. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Case No

20 20 Back-up Slides Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Case No The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

21 Presenting Integrated Information: Flight Lists 21 MITRE Flight lists can be customized and sorted by each column MITRE MITRE Flight Plan Data Surface Movement Data Flight Plan Data RAPT Wx and IDRP Demand Algorithms Flight Plan Data

22 Presenting Integrated Information: Route Options 22 MITRE MITRE View change in flight time and distance Database of Pre-defined Routes RAPT Wx and IDRP Data/Algorithms