Presentation to Portfolio Committee on Tourism. September 1, Cape Town
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1 ACSA WORLD CUP 2010 READINESS Presentation to Portfolio Committee on Tourism September 1, 2009 Cape Town Airport Operations September 09
2 Table of Contents Introduction Assumptions Methodology Results of Capacity Analysis Airspace Airport example Summary of Capacity Analysis Summary and Conclusion
3 Summary Assist the Aviation Sub-Sector Task Team (ASSTT) with planning for the 2010 World Cup Build a quick response demand model to analyse demand and supply for the WC2010 in terms of passengers and aircraft movements Use this information for scenario planning to enable airlines and infrastructure service providers to meet aviation demand for the different stakeholders The analysis pertains to airspace, airline and airport requirements
4 Project Plan Phase 1: Scoping, Information Collection & Synthesis Airports Airspace Airlines Phase 2: Data Analysis & Status Quo Phase 3: Model Development, Calibration & 2010 Demand Demand Model Phase 4: Strategy Development & Scenario Analysis Strategy & Network Operational Plan Phase 5: Workshops & Stakeholder Buy-In
5 Scenario approach to accommodate variables Three scenarios High attendance case Most likely Low attendance The results shown are for the high attendance scenario
6 High Attendance Scenario All tickets sold High percentage of International spectators Limited accommodation
7 High Level Assumptions Fixed Match schedule Match venues Stadium capacities FIFA family requirements Variable Ticket sales International spectator component Teams qualifying
8 MATCH DAY 1 MATCH DAY 2 MATCH DAY 3 VENUE SCSx5 1 A1 v A2 9 E1 v E2 19 B1 v B3 29 G1 v G3 40 D4 v D1 EPSx5 4 B1 v B2 13 G1 v G2 22 C4 v C2 32 H1 v H3 42 F4 v F1 NES x4 16 H3 v H4 27 F1 v F3 39 D2 v D3 45 G2 v G3 RUS x5 5 C1 v C2 12 F3 v F4 24 D4 v D2 33 A2 v A3 44 E2 v E3 FSS x5 10 E3 v E4 20 B4 v B2 28 F4 v F2 34 A4 v A1 48 H2 v H3 GPS x5 2 A3 v A4 11 F1 v F2 21 C1 v C3 30 G4 v G2 43 E4 v E1 DBN x5 7 D1 v D2 15 H1 v H2 25 E1 v E3 36 B2 v B3 46 G4 v G1 POS x4 6 C3 v C4 18 A2 v A4 36 B4 v B1 41 F2 v F3 PES x5 3 B3 v B4 14 G3 v G4 23 D1 v D3 31 H4 v H2 37 C4 v C1 LOSx5 8 D3 v D4 17 A1 v A3 26 E4 v E2 38 C2 v C3 47 H4 v H1
9 ROUND OF 16 QUARTER FINALS SEMI-FINALS 3 rd PLACE & FINAL VENUE SCS 51 1B v 2A 58 W53 v W54 64 W61 v W62 EPS 54 1G v 2H LOS 55 1F v 2E RUS 50 1C v 2D FSS 52 1D v 2C GPS 56 1H v 2G DBS 53 1E v 2F PES 4 1A v 2B LOS 55 1F v 2E REST DAYS 57 W49 v W50 60 W55 v W56 59 W51 v W52 REST DAYS 61 W57 v W58 62 W59 v W60 REST DAYS: 8 th & 9 th 63 L61 v L62
10 SCS 87,000 EP 62,000 Rust 44,000 Pol 45,000 FSS 45,000 Nel 45,000 Loftus 49,000 PE 47,000 GPS 70,000 DUR 70,000
11 Total match tickets per round m available tickets for all matches Tickets CIA DIA GAUTENG PE BFN CIA DIA GAUTENG PE CIA DIA PE GAUTENG Round 1 Round 2 Quarter-fin Semi-fin 3d place Final
12 100% Prob person will fly based on distance to travel 90% 80% Probability to fly 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Probability team supporters fly 20% 10% 0% Probability VIP fly Probability LOC fly Distance (km)
13 Modeling Methodology - Overview FIFA world rankings, preliminary draw of 25/11/2007 Stadiums, tickets per match, closest airport 64 Match schedule FIFA ticket categories and allocation policy For each match, allocate tickets to categories. Apply tournament rules, travel assumptions Ignore categories for same city & inter-city by car/bus/rail. Split flyers by category into airport pairs, day, hour Add all passengers per airport pair, day, hour Compare passenger demand with airline supply Translate passenger demand into ATMs Check airspace, runway and terminal capacity.
14 Model Components Airports & Network Trip Generation Arrivals/Departure by Airport by Hour IATA Level of Service 2007 Demand Airports ATNS Airlines 2007 Base Period Travel Times City Size Gravity model Prices Travel Times Frequency Air Transport Supply Trip Distribution Origins & Destinations Modal Split Choice of Airline Assignment Passengers to Seats Cargo to Space Reschedule? Evaluation Framework Airspace Airport Airline Capacity WC Primary Modal Split (Road/Air) ex Axios 2010 Demand Model Calibration & Validation FIFA Historical Information 2010 Match Schedule Exec, Aircraft Charters High, Likely, Low Scenarios
15 AIRSPACE CAPACITY VERSUS DEMAND Airspace Capacity versus Demand ORTIA Cape Town Int Int Airport at La Mercy Port Elizabeth George Bloemfontein KMIA Polokwane Airport Sufficient airspace capacity Demand exceeds airspace capacity Number of Days
16 DOMESTIC DEPARTURES CAPACITY VERSUS DEMAND Domestic Departures Capacity versus Demand ORTIA Cape Town Int Int Airport at La Mercy Port Elizabeth George Bloemfontein KMIA Polokwane Number of Days Airport Sufficient terminal capacity Demand exceeds terminal capacity
17 JET FUEL STOCK HOLDING AT ACSA AIRPORTS Airport Storage Capacity Daily Consumption Stock Days Under Construction ORTIA 47,130 m³ 4,300m³ x 6 million litre tanks CTIA 9,680m³ 1,900m³ 5 DIA 719m³ 300m³ 2.4 No further project until new airport is completed BLM l l 28 - KIM l 7 000l 32 - EL l l UP l l 50 - GRG l l PIL 76500l 5000l 15 - PE l l * The minimum stock level agreed for the 3 main airports is 5 days.
18 WORLD CUP JET A1 DEMAND
19 PLZ AP ATM Analysis 5/28 5/30 6/1 6/3 6/5 6/7 6/9 6/11 6/13 6/15 6/17 6/19 6/21 6/23 6/25 6/27 6/29 7/1 7/3 7/5 7/7 7/9 7/11 7/13 7/15 7/17 7/19 7/21 7/23 7/25 Date Total ATMs 10 Hr ATM Cap. 15 Hr ATM Cap. 20 Hr ATM Cap. ATMs per day
20 Jet Fuel Considerations
21 The Way Forward The results shown are for the high attendance scenario and should be used as base for further planning. Balance all airside activities with demand: Ramp Handling, Fuelling, Catering, Cleaning, Bussing etc.. Fall back plan / contingency plan Develop landside / public road transport plans in conjunction with City and all role players The DOT, Provincial Authorities, Host cities, LOC, and the NDOT) The passenger demand will have to be refined once the draw, ticket sales and accommodation availability
22 Thank you for your attention
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