Given the challenges, airlines would far prefer to have ample capacity and no slot constraints.

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3 Airport capacity and airline demand for access to airports can not keep pace with each other. Passengers are due to nearly double over the next 20 years to some 7.2 billion passengers per year, However airport capacity is not keeping pace, neither is it forecast to Passenger Load factors are at all time highs demand is booming Aircraft operating are forecast to double in 20 Years according to Airbus and Boeing (forecasts 2017) There is no doubt, we are entering a period where capacity availability is going to impact the ability to serve the demand that s forecast. This significant gap between capacity available and what is required results in excess demand which needs to be managed Without a process of allocating the capacity available we will see chaos with more aircraft than stands available, more passengers than the terminal and its systems can cope with. Given the challenges, airlines would far prefer to have ample capacity and no slot constraints. In an ideal world, airlines would be able to fly where they wanted, when they wanted to match demand, but we are now far from this ideal world unfortunately What does it mean for the passenger? Airport capacity severely lagging demand More airline demand for flights than can be safely handled 3

4 Airlines confronted by reducing scheduling options More and more routes with a slot on each end Complexity each season securing new access for growth Complications felt in performance block time considerations, congestion, lack of resilience at airports and in airspace Who suffers.the passenger, the business relying on freight 3

5 The number of slot coordinated airports continues to grow in every region. To say Coordination is a short term solution to a lack of infrastructure is no longer realistic slot coordination is more and more a staple in an industry where capacity is not keeping pace with demand. There are 189 Level 3 (Slot Coordinated) airports in total (30 Nov 2017) 122 Level 2 airports (the lesser congested, schedule managed airports with some peak congestion) Notably China now has 21 slot coordinated airports perhaps unsurprisingly, given traffic growth and congestion challenges Steady growth in Europe, more recent growth in Americas, from Latin America / South America 4

6 Slot Coordinated Airports Forecast Given the continuing growth in passenger demand and cargo forecasts and the comparatively conservative airport development projects we foresee coordination continuing its role in the aviation industry. We have looked at future growth of congested airports; realistically there could be another 100 airports declared full in 10 years that s 50% growth - the forecast illustrates the challenge, it is significant. Worst case we could see more than 300 slot coordinated airports in 10 years! This would mean secondary and non-hub airports becoming a feature of coordination statistics. As well as the aviation mega cities and current global hubs we know today. This is a significant problem for the industry reducing flexibility, disabling ability to meet passenger demand without serious constraints and nonoptimal flight schedules to fit in with available capacity. Unfortunately it also means actual passenger demand will be incredibly hard to serve when there is less than optimal access to the market. 5

7 So what do we do given airports are quickly running out of capacity? How do we avoid complete chaos at airports where the demand far exceeds the capacity available, where there are not enough parking positions for aircraft, where the terminals are already congested and passengers experience lengthy queues? A system, a process, is needed to allocate what is available, in a balanced and controlled manner a system that should prevent huge congestion developing by only allowing those carriers with slots to operate. But which system is best, and how do you start measuring its success? How do you judge which approach achieves the best result? Clearly many stakeholders have different views and interests, so the system needs to provide broad benefits to as many stakeholders as possible. Which impacts of the system should you measure? Consumer impacts; Reliability 6

8 Choice Destinations Price Economic impacts Growth Connectivity Sustainability Airline impacts Certainty Cost Access and growth Fair and neutral Transparent Airport impacts Destinations Revenue Growth Competition 6

9 There are many solutions tabled to solve the problem of airport congestion, and how to best allocate slots. One is peak/off-peak pricing (runway pricing / congestion pricing ) Another, administrative allocation of slots through a defined process we call slot coordination, which can even include a secondary market mechanism Third, there is a pure market approach; slot auctions 7

10 So, lets take a look at these options for allocating scarce capacity in more detail : The concept of peak and off-peak pricing has been slated as a solution for congested airport infrastructure not to replace slot allocation, but a charge to the airline for using infrastructure that s congested an airport charging model to change behaviors. The idea is the airlines wanting to operate in the most congested periods pay more for using the scarce infrastructure so it encourages airlines to use the off peak periods. There are many reasons this doesn t achieve the stated policy outcomes, namely; The market demand dictates schedules cargo and passenger schedules built to meet this demand Airlines are incentivized for high utilization of their fleet, therefore they can t avoid peak flying especially on long sectors with added complexity of night restrictions ICAO guidance shows that peak/off-peak charges have been ineffective in prompting airlines to reschedule flights to less congested airports Capacity constraints should not be used to increase airport revenues so the solution has to be completely revenue neutral Slot constraints limit the ability to modify the schedules > cost reduction by operating off-peak attractive, but in practice unachievable due to 8

11 demand, schedules/slots, connections and global network It redistributes costs between different airline users arbitrarily But this doesn t solve the problem, because there still needs to be a mechanism to actually distribute the capacity available to the airlines! Slot Auctions have had much attention recently, they seem to be the most fashionable option on the table but would they stand the test of time? They may seem like an ideal solution a market based measure to achieve absolute efficiency in allocation a scarce commodity that could be sold to the highest bidder maximizing economic benefit surely? Perhaps not Recently, China experimented with the idea, putting a selection of slots on the market at Guangzhou Baiyun and running a slot lottery at Shanghai Pudong. It hasn t been repeated the largest carriers left new entrants and competition as the second runners at a huge cost for just a very small number of slots. This raised a substantial amount of revenue but, that is part of the problem. Auctions are not sustainable. Reduced fares have changed the industry passengers are benefitting hugely from increased competition imagine if only a few globally dominant carriers were able to fund auctions at some 200 airports air travel could become a luxury again for a few, or at least realistically, growth could be dented. Distortion in the market would be rife airlines with slot coordinated bases would be most hurt, having to pay for all their slots when some of the worlds largest carriers would only be paying for slots on 10-20% of their operation Slot auctions would dramatically change the business - marginally profitable routes would be destroyed, eliminating the social benefit of connecting remote communities, providing leisure travel at reasonable prices would be a huge challenge for airlines, especially low cost carriers, confronted with an enormous bill for the slots to operate their routes on top of airport charges If the slots are put up for auction again after a fixed period routes/ networks could be harmed as there is no ability to guarantee the same airlines would be successful the next time, bringing change but not necessarily competition, and all at even more cost which would be passed on to the passengers But something less cost driven, the ability to actually allocate the airport capacity effectively > slots are not just runway but terminal and parking stand determined too how do auctions determine these factors during the bidding? But somewhat even more perverse is the impact Auctions could have on the incentive of airport operators and governments to build more capacity basic economic theory suggests something limited in supply has higher value those receiving the auction revenue would have a huge incentive to limit capacity and maintain the huge value of the slots.that s surely not good for the passenger, businesses, industry or the intended outcome. 8

12 We really feel this free market solution would be disastrous, and with many restrictions and rules need to be included in the auction to make it feasible, it would certainly not resemble a free market solution in practice Administrative Allocation through Slot Coordination is the current preferred model for slot allocation, usually following the Worldwide Slot Guideline (WSG) process. The process involves an independent and neutral coordinator reviewing the previous seasons operations, where airlines have been able to achieve 80% usage of each slot series they retain it through historic precedence, and all new requests for slots are considered against the capacity available with priority to at least 50% of the capacity pool to New Entrant airlines. All this takes place at the same time globally according to a timetable, to ensure airlines receive all their slot allocations at the same time providing the means to match slots to their planned schedules and get them on sale to passengers. The process ensures airlines can enter new markets without additional entry costs, slots are allocated free of charge a huge benefit to the passenger as it does not load more cost into fares The usage requirement ensures scarce capacity is not wasted, with airports achieving 98% utilization but also ensures airlines operate to markets where demand exists, there is no incentive to operate empty, only to best meet demand especially when the ability to operate is limited to a few slots because of lack of capacity There is no favoring of certain airlines, business models or their ability to pay a neutral process that is simple, consistent and practical globally this ensures choice, destination expansion, connectivity all to support the economic and consumer benefits The ability to retain slots provides reliability in schedules, grow hubs to ensure connections, whilst balancing with the need to promote competition and access to new airlines, the new entrants providing additional growth and destination choice. Technology could be better integrated to optimize slot allocation efficiencies during the process, with careful consideration for achieving the absolute best use of capacity It could be more dynamic and less cumbersome, something the whole industry would benefit from but it is not broken! It is not perfect, but is altogether a better option than the others on the table. 8

13 Slot allocation is incredibly complex and only getting more so this is why finding a perfect solution is almost impossible, especially when considering the need for it to work globally. A few things to consider when contemplating an alternative to the solution today At some of the most congested airports there are huge amounts of requests for slots that can not be met, and are put on waiting lists managed during the season and where possible ad hoc capacity allocated (60,000 requests on a seasonal wait list is not unusual!) The number of slots to be allocated is staggering > at LHR in one week alone there are 9,500 slots encompassing the entire airports operations. The process of allocation must take into account runway movements (which is the simplest parameter), terminal constraints (check-in, security, gates, baggage reclaim) and aircraft stand availability (different stands for different aircraft sizes) before the allocation can be made, an ever increasing matrix of many parameters at the most congested airports which is adding to the complexity The airlines need to match the slots they hold to their operation, their fleet rotations, their crew rostering, and even more complex match a slot on each end of the route when both are coordinated to make a schedule that meets the demand and provides onward connections at hubs Operating restrictions and bans on night flights are a growing theme, they restrict the feasibility of operations between airports, particularly long haul (Asian departures late at night to arrive in Europe as airports open, to maximize the business day and onward travel) And ultimately, Air carriers should be treated equally and fairly through a transparent process that is not distortive or discriminatory Timing is everything flights need to go on sale, and without a process that works consistently globally airlines struggle to get their schedules confirmed for sale no passenger wants their flight to move by 5 hours because the slot has been changed, or a connection missed because the onward flight had to retime late in the day! 9

14 The Worldwide Slot Guidelines (WSG) today the WSG provides the policy, principles and process of the Slot Coordination method for allocating scarce capacity. We are constantly looking to keep the process up to date and supporting the industry and its stakeholders. As ICAO has concluded previously; Any slot allocation system should be fair, non-discriminatory and transparent, and should take into account the interests of all stakeholders while it should also be globally compatible, aimed at maximizing effective use of airport capacity, simple, practicable and economically sustainable The WSG provides a reasonable solution, that is better than any other option today it supports growth, connectivity, has promoted competition and enabled the birth of the low cost carrier at many slot controlled airports. We know the process could be even better, and we have initiated the WSG Strategic Review with Airports Council International (ACI) and the Coordinator community to revise the areas that need bringing up to date > to enable it to support the continued growth and development of the air transport industry of tomorrow. The review includes 80+ reps globally, from all regions and business models we want to make efficiency gains through technology, look at enhancing access and review the new entrant rule, as well as better define performance monitoring when looking at how slots are used. Regardless of the traffic, business or region these four pillars are the basis of slot coordination and the single global process: Certainty of access and reliability of schedule, viable business Flexibility to mix and match to meet changing market needs 10

15 Transparency of allocation Achievements with the current WSG process; Increasing economic benefit generated by increasing connections between cities - enabling the flow of goods, people, capital, technology and ideas. The number of unique airport pairs is at a record high, and this ability for more and more connectivity, more destination choice, has been achieved with the WSG in place Air fares have reduced significantly over time, with the WSG process as the backbone to schedule planning, and as the means by which airlines access airports free of charge enabling this reduction in fares And very impressively at many Level 3 slot coordinated airports low cost carriers have entered the market and competed with incumbents successfully growing their operation despite the challenges of slots. This isn't the ideal solution, a lack of capacity still remains the critical issue none of these solve the real problem Responsible Investment in infrastructure needs to be forthcoming and now no airline wants to be dealing with these cumbersome systems for planning their operation, securing growth in to new markets they want to serve the demand the consumer has, with schedules and fares that are attractive and competitive. Maybe if governments could make the difficult decision to agree to expansion as soon as we d like it, I could happily be without a job well before my very distant retirement!!! 10

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