SAFE TRAVELS. ICAO s Agenda for SAFETY. Committed to leave no one behind. Catalin Radu. Air Navigation Bureau ICAO March 2017

Transcription

1 SAFE TRAVELS Committed to leave no one behind ICAO s Agenda for SAFETY Catalin Radu Deputy Director, Aviation Safety Singapore Aviation Safety Seminar Air Navigation Bureau ICAO March

2 Our Aspirational Safety Goal

3 Fatalities Trend for Scheduled Commercial Flights ( ) Estimate 7.6 Bill Pax Fatalities showed a spike during 2014, and then recovered in

4 Fatalities Trend for Scheduled Commercial Flights ( ) Estimate Overall, accidents and fatal accidents have been decreasing 4

5 We are not that far Regional Accident Statistics: 2013 Regional Accident Statistics: 2015 Regional Accident Statistics: 2014 For 2016 (non validated results) PA (NACC/SAM) and AFI (WACAF/ESAF) ZERO fatalities In the past, some regions have already achieved zero fatalities 5

6 Air traffic is predicted to double by 2030 How can we ensure the safe realization of this growth?

7 Risks/barriers to achieve our goal Effective Implementation of SARPs ICAO s Safety priorities: Operational Risks Current and emerging issues 7

8 Effective Implementation of State Safety Oversight 64,06% Global average increase of 1.5% per year Effective implementation (%) results through USOAP CMA 8

9 Safe Travels: ICAO s agenda for Safety WHAT WE HAVE TODAY (Effective Implementation of SARPs) 29 March

10 Evolving Safety Performance implement is a data-driven decision making process that: Assesses the current status of aviation (Safety Briefings) Identifies the best solutions in order to maintain or improve the aviation capability of the State (Solution Center) Evaluates the needs of the aviation system (money, people, infrastructure) (CAA HR Tools, PAINT/iAID, etc.) Identifies resources through existing national, regional, or global mechanisms (ASIAP, SAFE Fund, etc.) Showcases the real added value of air transport and the socio-economic return on investment of aviation A NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND Initiative: Facilitating Data-Driven Decisions for Aviation * Site: 100

11 Identify Risks Prioritize and Offer Solutions Identifying the needs Resourcing the needs Aviation Benefits PAINT SEC FAL Solution Center Infrastructure ENVIRO NEEDS TODAY RESOURCING THE NEEDS Aviation Development Network SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF AVIATION State Safety Briefing SIMS for SSP Global Cost Database Money Infrastructure People Aviation Development Fund ICAO GSI Database ENHANCED SAFETY SSP Prerequisites People Structure Technical Cooperation Assistance ECONOMIC DRIVER CAA-HR Toolkit Training Needs Analysis Reporting on current State risks Prioritizing risks & providing corrective actions Providing practical solutions to prioritized risks

12 GASP Roadmap Goals: Ensure that safety initiatives deliver the intended benefits associated with the GASP objectives Reduce inconsistencies and duplication of efforts Specific safety initiatives aimed at States, Regions and Industry Complements the GANP Some ASBUs address safety Implementation of ASBUs will require safety assessments prior to implementation 27 February

13 Regional Safety Oversight Organizations (RSOOs) 133

14 Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness Programmes (COSCAPs) 144

15 29 March 2017

16 Safe Travels: ICAO s agenda for Safety WHAT S NEXT? (Effective Implementation of SARPs) 29 March

17 Evolution of Analysis: Safety Margins Safety Margin Risk-based prioritization model based on a State s Traffic and the level of Effective Implementation (EI) in the related technical areas at risk (Operations, Air Navigation, Support Functions) 177

18 Evolution of Analysis: Safety Margins Safety Margin Risk-based prioritization model based on a State s Traffic and the level of Effective Implementation (EI) in the related technical areas at risk (Operations, Air Navigation, Support Functions) 188

19 SSP pre-requisites Identifies pre-requisites to an effective and sustainable SSP implementation A subset of the approx. 1,096 USOAP PQs with more granularity than the 60% EI threshold; 19

20 Global Aviation Safety Oversight System (endorsed during the Global RSOO Forum - Swaziland) Empower and strengthen regional mechanism (i.e. RSOO, RAIAO, etc.), along with other safety oversight providers (commercial companies, etc.) to form the building blocks of a global safety oversight system ICAO responsible for establishing and maintaining an inventory of competent safety oversight providers and the tasks and functions that they provide Regional mechanisms and safety oversight providers to demonstrate competence in the tasks and functions that they provide to a State, in order to qualify as an ICAO recognized safety oversight provider 20

21 Global Aviation Safety Oversight System (GASOS) A RSOP F RSOP A RSOP C RSOP E RSOP G RSOP B RSOP D RSOP F RSOP D RSOP ICAO recognized safety oversight provider (RSOP) State Oversight Audit Results ICAO Library

22 Evolution of RASGs RASGs as the regional leader for defining the global targets to be reflected in the future Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP) 20XX 20YY 22

23 Evolution of RASGs RASGs as the regional leader for defining the global targets to be reflected in the future Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP) RASGs to assist States in defining their own specific targets From 60% EI to an acceptable Safety Margin for each State 23

24 Evolution of RASGs RASGs as the regional leader for defining the global targets to be reflected in the future Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP) RASGs to assist States in defining their own specific targets From 60% EI to an acceptable safety margin for each State RASGs to harmonize and avoid overlaps Between States Between RASGs 24

25 Risks/barriers to achieve our goal Effective Implementation of SARPs ICAO s Safety priorities: Operational Risks Current and emerging issues 25

26 Safety Priorities: Operational Risks Runway Safety related (RS) Loss of Control-Inflight (LOC-I) Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) Other accident priorities? (i.e. by Region) LOC-I 26

27 Information Sharing and Exchange SERVICE PROVIDERS STATES ICAO Airports ANSP Airlines Business Aviation Manufacturers Core Safety Performance Indicators Provide States with tools to prioritize implementation KPI KPI KPI KPI KPI SPI SMS SSP TOOLS 27

28 Analysis to manage the hazards OVER 30 Applications for safety analysis and Information MORE THAN Registered users 28

29 Risk Mitigation: Managing the Hazards Data driven decision making processes using data from States, Industry, and other stakeholders 29

30 Risks/barriers to achieve our goal Effective Implementation of SARPs ICAO s Safety priorities: Operational Risks Current and emerging issues 30

31 Current and Emerging Issues What next? Mental Health GPS interruption Cargo Safety Supersonic aircraft Conflict Zones Global Tracking Cyber Safety RPAS Space Transportation 31

32 Safe Travels: ICAO s agenda for Safety SUMMARY 32

33 Effective Implementation Safety Priorities 60% Safety Margin SSP Pre-requisites Phase I: Phase II: Phase III: Effective safety oversight SSP implementation Predictive risk management Sub-phase I-A Sub-phase I-B SSI-1 SSI-2 SSI-3 SSI-4 SSI-5 SSI-6 SRI-1 SRI-2 SRI-3 SRI-4 SRI-5 Industry Regions States SCI-1 SCI-2 SCI-3 SCI-4 SCI-5 SXI-1 SXI-2 SXI-3 SXI-4 SXI-5 RSI-1 RSI-2 RSI-3 RSI-4 RRI-1 RRI-2 RRI-3 RRI-4 RCI-1 RCI-2 GASOS RCI-3 RCI-4 RXI-1 RXI-2 RXI-3 RXI-4 ISI-1 ISI-2 IRI-1 IRI-2 IRI-3 ICI-1 ICI-2 ICI-3 ICI-4 IXI-1 IXI-2 IXI-3 S&E Safety Info Data Mgm Risk 33

34 Real-Time Monitoring Aviation s Health Combining State audits with State/Industry operational data Through SMS and SSP Protection of information/operational data through Amendment 1 to Annex 19 34

35 Our Aspirational Safety Goal SAFE TRAVELS!!! Passengers First!!!

36 THANK YOU! 36