Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dubai 2017 (ME and Africa) Tewolde Gebremariam Ethiopian Airlines Group CEO

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1 Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Dubai 2017 (ME and Africa) Tewolde Gebremariam Ethiopian Airlines Group CEO

2 Ethiopian Airlines Past, Present, Future

3 The Leading Airline Group in Africa

4 Ethiopian History Bringing Africa Together for More Than 70 years The Leading Airline Group in Africa 2017 Formation of the Ethiopian Airlines Group including the EAE 1 st scheduled flight to Cairo with DC-47 1 st jet service in Africa 1 st African B LR Over 100 international destinations 1 st East-West Africa flights 1st Flight to China Africa s 1 st B787 Major new infrastructures. - Biggest Catering facility - Biggest MRO facility - Biggest Cargo Terminal 1998 Africa s 1 st A Vision Transatlantic flight to NYC, IAD Star Alliance Member Africa s Largest Aviation Academy 1946

5 Global Alliance Passengers Cargo (Tons) Revenue Current Fleet Hubs: Management Team Current Destinations (Passenger & Freighter) The Largest Airline Group in Africa Star Alliance Member mil. Passengers (2016/17) - 338,846 tones (2016/17) USD 2.71 Billion (2016/17) unaudited 92 in service & 60 in order(less than 5.0 years av. Fleet age) Addis Ababa, Lomé, Lilongwe Young but highly experienced team with combined aviation experience of 425 years; average services of 25 years. - Over 100 international destinations Freighter and 19 domestic destinations Employees - More than 12,000 Ownership - 100% Ethiopian Government Weekly Flights Weekly flights Daily departures Major Accreditation/ Certifications

6 Growing, Modern & Young Fleet Average fleet age of less than 5.0 years In Service: 19 - B B ER 6 - B LR 5 - A B B NG* 16 - B W* 19 - Q400* 6 - B LRF 2 - B F * in total with partner airlines 92 in service 60 on order On order: 30 - B737 MAX A Q400 2 B777F

7 Record Success Vision 2025 Ethiopian is the Fastest Growing African Airline 1219% revenue growth in 10 years time in an industry which lost billions of Dollars

8 Record Success Vision 2025 Ethiopian ranked 57 th of the top 100 airlines group by revenue in 2016; up by 6 points (63 rd in 2015) South Africa Airways 60 th Egypt Airways 76 th Kenya Airways..100 th

9 21 st Century is African Century 1 billion young population Large land mass 6% GDP growth next Decade GDP of $ 2.6 trillion by % of world s uncultivated arable land; destination for food security Fast growing middle income society Untapped natural resources: 42% of world s gold; 12% oil; 90% diamond, etc Major FDI destination China

10 Growth & Transformation Plan (GTP) GDP: +11% Infrastructure development: - Road: 64,500 km - Rail: 2395 km - Energy: 10,000 MW - Telecom: 50 million mobile users ETHIOPIA, One of the PINEs (Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria & Ethiopia) fastest growing economies Addis: 1 st city rail in Sub-Saharan Africa to have city train service built by Shenzhen Metro Significant improvement in human development index Broad based & all inclusive economic development

11 The Largest International Passenger Network in Africa Oslo New york Victoria Falls Antananarivo Windhoek 6 Billion people living with in 10 hrs flight radius of ADD 5 Continents, More than 100 International Destinations of which 55 are in Africa

12 Largest Cargo Operator in Africa 6 - B777F 39 Freighter destinations in 4 continents, 6 wide-body freighters and 2 Cargo Terminals

13 Upcoming Cargo Terminal No 2. Automated Cargo Terminal for tons per year; expandable to 1.2 mil. Pallet racks for 8500 positions. Meat Hanger System X-Ray, CCTV, Forklift trucks, etc. Half of the terminal capacity for perishables ULD Handling System: 4 15ft Elevating transfer vehicles ft storage positions 30 Workstations, elevating, with integrated scales Largest Cargo Operator in Africa Terminal 2

14 Gender Equality All Women Functioned Flight

15 Recent Major Industry Awards Recognition Of Our Success Ethiopian has won SKYTRAX World Airline Award for The Best Airlines in Africa on June 20, 2017 at the Paris Air Show. Ethiopian Airlines has won Airline of the Year Award for the fifth year in a row, at the 48th AFRAA Annual General Assembly held in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. Received Airline of the Year Award by the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) for the fourth year in a row. Voted the Best Cargo Airline of the Year from Africa at the 2016 Cargo Airline of the Year awards Won the Passenger Choice Awards for "Best Airline in Africa" for the third time in a row at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland, USA Ethiopian Airlines has won SKYTRAX World Airline Award for Best Airline Staff in Africa, for the second time, on July 12, Ethiopian Airlines has won the CAPA Airline of the Year Award at the 2015 CAPA Aviation Awards for Excellence, Helsinki, Finland. ET received Best Airline to Africa, for a second year in a row, and Best Airline in Africa by US Premier Traveler magazine

16 ET Hub (ADD Bole International Airport) Expansion & Modernization

17 ET Hub (ADD Bole International Airport) Expansion & Modernization

18 The Airline Operating Environment Unpredictable Turbulent Highly dynamic Too sensitive to economic cycles

19 Airline Profitability in 2017 American Airlines 15.4 B 7.4 B European Airlines Middle East Airlines Asian-Pacific Airlines 7.4 B -0.1B 0.4 B Latin American Airlines African Airlines 0.8 B

20 Africa : Airline Industry Major Challenges 1 Oil Persistently high; about 50% of operating cost 2 Taxes & Charges Governments milking aviation 3 Infrastructure Limited & unable to keep pace

21 1 Africa : Airline Industry Major Challenges Lack of Integration Too little inter-africa traffic Too little trade & investment among African countries 2 ICT Poor ICT infrastructure 3 Immigration No visa waiver among African countries 4 Blacklisting Tarnishes image of entire African aviation

22 Key Success Factors In Airline Business Five Forces Affecting Airline Industry Profitability THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS LOW ENTRY BARRIER Liberalization, Aircraft lease options, outsourcing BARGAINING POWER OF SUPPLIERS MONOPOLISTIC SUPPLIERS OEM s, Fuelers, GDS, Caterers, Airports RIVALRY AMONG EXISTING AIRLINES Competing for growth, market share, etc BARGAINING POWER OF BUYERS INDIVIDUAL POWER Internet, Travel Agencies, Concentration, Excess capacity THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES High speed Train ICT products

23 Key Success Factors In Airline Business Fleet Fleet is the most expensive strategic asset of an airline and hence important focus areas are; o Fleet Planning o Fleet selection, commonality o Fleet management and maintenance Marketing Plan > Network plan > Fleet Plan > Business Plan. Financing fleet should be part of the fleet plan and business plan. o Finance lease o Various forms of operating lease Fleet Deployment; The right aircraft for the right mission.

24 Key Success Factors In Airline Business Cost Management Focus on cost management is a necessary but not sufficient condition for any type of airline (Full service network, LCC, ULCC or hybrid etc ). Need for continuous pursuit to achieve the least possible unit cost is necessary in all types of airlines. Cost Management should not be the domain of LCC, ULCC or hybrid airlines. Full Service Network Airlines management should also give equal attention to cost management in all product types.

25 Key Success Factors In Airline Business Leadership/Management The late Peter Ducker said Management is the single most important part of any organization. Determines success or failure of any organization. The commitment, dedication, passion, energy and experience and skill of Airline management is the single largest success factor for the airline. Corporate Governance Another maker and breaker of any airline. State ownership, private ownership, mix structure of ownership are all possible practices but in the end what matters most is the operating environment created as a result of the ownership. A healthy involvement of governments is unavoidable and necessary in the airline business. Depending on the economic development stage of the country, Airlines are strategic assets for any country and long term view of the business is critically important. Airline business not an easy money making business; it is an extremely low margin business.

26 Key Success Factors In Airline Business Product Differentiation Airline product being commoditized long time ago need product differentiation. Commodity product is getting increasingly challenging in the industry and thus customer service has been attracting management attention. Managing Difficult Business The airline business is one of the most difficult businesses in the world. Surrounded by monopolistic suppliers but on the other end of the value chain (the demand side) dominated by almost perfect completion driven by excess capacity in the market. Paradoxical situation: manifested by exponentially rising costs to produce the product (ASK) but continuously declining price of air travel to the customer. The law of inflation is not applying on air ticket prices since they are continuously declining.

27 Key Success Factors In Airline Business Managing Profitability Some airlines are making money consistently like South West, Ryan Air, Easy Jet, Ethiopian Airlines etc while most airlines continuously loss billions of dollars specially when measured by Economics Profit (EVA) and not an accounting profit. How are continuously loss making airlines getting many airplanes every year? who is investing in these continuously loss making airlines? This the question to the audience? Diversity of Financing Options ( ECA Guarantees, Structured Finance, the bond market etc.). Overestimation of risk and disequilibrium in the risk and return equation.

28 Key Success Factors In Airline Business Airline Economics

29 Key Success Factors In Airline Business Airline Economics

30 Thank You The Winning Team

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