Introduction to Fleet Planning Dr. Peter Belobaba and Ali Hajiyev

Transcription

1 Introduction to Fleet Planning Dr. Peter Belobaba and Ali Hajiyev Istanbul Technical University Air Transportation Management M.Sc. Program Network, Fleet and Schedule Strategic Planning Module 7: 29 March 2016

2 Lecture Outline World Airline Fleets Commercial Aircraft Manufacturers Airline Fleet Sizes and Age Passenger Aircraft Market Categories Evolution of aircraft types by size and range Overview of current commercial aircraft types Narrow-body jet aircraft Wide-body jet aircraft Aircraft Orders and Fleet Plans Current orders by region, type and manufacturer Focus on emerging global carriers Turkish Airlines: Orders and fleet outlook 2

3 FLEET PLANNING Fleet composition is a long-term strategic decision Fleet is the total number of aircraft that an airline operates, as well as the specific aircraft types that comprise the total fleet. Each aircraft type has different technical performance characteristics (e.g., payload capacity and range ) Affects financial position, operating costs, and especially the ability to serve specific routes. Large capital investment with a long-term horizon: US $50-60 million for narrow-body 150-seat airplane $180+ million for mid-size ( seats) long-range Boeing 787 $300+ million for largest Airbus A380 ( seats) Depreciation impacts on balance sheet last years Some aircraft have been operated economically for 30+ years 3

4 Commercial Aircraft Manufacturers Boeing (USA) Largest producer of commercial (and military) aircraft Acquired McDonnell-Douglas Aircraft in 1997 Airbus (Europe) Launched as a consortium owned by several European countries in 1967, now publicly traded as Airbus Group Has captured 50% market share of large jet aircraft Embraer (Brazil) Developed small regional jets, now focusing on E-jets with seats Bombardier (Canada) Also shifting focus from 50-seat regional jets to larger C-jets 4

5 Airline Fleets 2014 US Airline Fleets are Substantially Larger * 800 Aircraft in Fleet * Source: Airline Business Top 200 Airlines Traffic

6 Average Worldwide Fleet Ages Data source: Airfleets.net (2015) 6

7 Passenger Aircraft Categories Commercial aircraft are most commonly defined by their range and size: The range is the maximum distance that it can fly without stopping for additional fuel, while still carrying a reasonable payload of passengers and/or cargo. The size of an aircraft can be represented by measures such as its weight, its seating or cargo capacity, as indicators of the amount of payload that it can carry. Broad categories such as small, short-haul or large, longhaul aircraft can include several different aircraft types by different manufacturers. Aircraft with similar capabilities are regarded as competitors in the airline s fleet planning decisions. For example, the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX 8 are competing aircraft types, as they are both new generation aircraft with approximately 165 seats with similar range capabilities. 7

8 Aircraft Categories - Trends Historically, largest aircraft were designed for routes with the longest flight distances. Relationship between aircraft size and range was almost linear. Airlines wishing to serve a very long-haul non-stop route had to acquire the Boeing 747. Airlines now have a much wider choice of products by range and capacity in each category: Range of new aircraft in the small category ( seats) has increased dramatically. US transcontinental routes are now being flown with Boeing 737NG and Airbus 320 series aircraft. Sizes of new long-range aircraft have decreased substantially. Airlines serve certain lower-demand long-haul non-stop international routes with Boeing 757 (180 seats) e.g., Newark to Lisbon, and Los Angeles to Maui (Hawaii). 8

9 Narrow-body Jet Aircraft Typical Passenger Capacity and Range 250 Newest Aircraft Types in Green SEATING CAPACITY CRJ-900 CRJ-700 E195 E175 E170 C130 C110 E190 A321 A321neo ER MAX MAX A320 A320neo MAX A320 A319neo A CRJ-200 E145 E RANGE (KM) (Adapted from: Belobaba et al (2009) 9

10 Bombardier CRJ 200/700/900/1000 CRJ-200 CRJ-700 CRJ-900 CRJ

11 Embraer E170/E175/E190/E195 E-170 E-175 E-190 E

12 Boeing 737NG Next Generation ER 12

13 Airbus 320 Family A319 A320 A321 13

14 Boeing 757 (Out of Production)

15 New Single-Aisle Developments Bombardier C-Series Embraer E2 Family Boeing 737MAX Airbus A320neo 15

16 Wide-body Jet Aircraft 600 Newest Aircraft Types in Green A SEATING CAPACITY A ER A A ER A A A ER A A ER ER LR Adapted from: Belobaba et al (2009) RANGE (KM) 16

17 Boeing (Out of Production) ER ER 17

18 Airbus A330 / A340 A A A A

19 Boeing 787 Dreamliner Dreamliner Dreamliner 19

20 Boeing ER ER 777F 20

21 Boeing F Intercontinental 21

22 Airbus

23 New Twin-Aisle Developments A330neo A350 Family Dreamliner 777X Family 23

24 Large Jet Aircraft Orders by Region (January 2016) Widebody Narrowbody 2500 Current Backlog Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America Unidentified Source: Manufacturer websites retrieved 2/23/16 24

25 Large Aircraft Orders by Manufacturer and Type (January 2016) Current Generation Next Generation (neo/max/etc.) Current Backlog A320 A330 A350 A380 B737 B747 B767 B777 B787 Airbus Boeing Source: Manufacturer websites retrieved 2/23/16 25

26 Emerging carriers have over 800 aircraft on order; 66% are for wide-body aircraft Unfilled Orders A320 A330 A350 A X 787 EMIRATES ETIHAD AIRWAYS QATAR AIRWAYS TURKISH AIRLINES Source: Airbus & Boeing order and delivery schedule, retrieved Feb 24,

27 Turkish Airlines Fleet (2016) Airbus A320: A319: 14 A320: 29 A321: 56 Airbus A330: A : 20 A : 26 Airbus A340: A : 4 Cargo: A310: 3 A : 7 Boeing 777: ER: 24 Boeing 737: : : : 15 Embraer : E190: 2 E195: 3 Source: Turkish Airlines website, retrieved Feb 24,

28 Fleet Outlook ( ): Turkish Airlines Conceptual THY Fleet Plan 2021 Average In Service On Order Total Seats/AC Airbus A320 Family A A A A321neo A330 A A A340 A (3) (3) Boeing 737 Family (3) (6) (11) (5) (2) ER MAX MAX ER Total Fleet Entry / Exit by Year

29 Fleet Forecast (2021): Turkish Airlines Airbus A320: A319: 14 A320: 33 A321: 68 A321neo: 72 Boeing 737: : ER: MAX: 65 Airbus A330: A : 16 A : 30 Boeing 777: ER: 32 29

30 Fleet Operating Outlook ( ): Turkish Airlines Aircraft Operating Peformance Change Seats Deps/Day Ave. Stage Length Fleet Departures ASKs Fleet Departures ASKs Departures ASKs Airbus A , ,599 4,418,266, ,599 4,418,266,617 0% A , ,717 12,001,582, ,717 12,001,582,985 A , ,420 21,278,417, ,780 21,278,417,267 A321neo , ,238 33,698,309,453 A , ,083 5,604,948, ,083 5,604,948,833 A , ,586 23,689,686, ,310 38,391,434,076 A , ,871 5,370,927, Boeing , , ,021, , ,868 22,555,215, ,817 22,278,283, ER , ,565 5,270,931, ,348 7,906,396, MAX , ,202 19,145,400, MAX , ,565 5,270,931, ER , ,550 19,694,856, ,100 37,914,449, % Total , ,741,853, , ,908,421,037 81% 72% 0% 58% 67% -100% -100% -6% 50% 30