Forecast Mapping Session

Transcription

1 The 20 th Annual Forecast Mapping Session Opening Forecast Mapping Session Disruptive Realities And More August 31, 2015

2 Mapping The Future Fundamental Trends We ll be diving into all of these issues over the next two days Fuel Is Bio-fuel still in the mix? Infrastructure Not LGA The Globe Airline Capacity Africa & Asia Airline Structures Are Alliances Out? Global Portals & Traffic Flows Unmanned Aircraft

3 The Main Drivers To Watch Example: Robotic manufacturing is eroding labor cost advantage in China, Vietnam, Mexico, etc. This will have an effect on aviation planning particularly air cargo Whole new shifts in trade patterns China as the new global mover Shifts in manufacturing technology Shifts in commercial decision-centers

4 Air Transportation Issues Alliances: Maybe sharing traffic isn t as great a deal as was assumed Global airport congestion and raw economics will reignite demand for the A-380 and the 747-8, according to BGI fleet forecasts. We ll be discussing this tomorrow with the five global aircraft manufacturers. New fleets: A-350, 787, CSeries, E-2, MRJ new capabilities means new business models Fleet demand is now airline-based, not geographicbased Re-fleeting: fleet demand based on traffic growth effects on suppliers and financial institutions? Traffic: flows now global not international Airline growth: corporate decisions, not econometric

5 Forecast Issues: North America The Canada/US/Mexico situation never stronger Yesterday, the Pilot Shortage Workshop delved into potential effects on airline networks It will be a theme throughout the Summit Traditional traffic base expanded by ULCCs how much? Eventual effects of ULCCs (Spirit & Frontier) on competition Retirement of small jets = change in networks, increase in traffic at many airports Air cargo open question regarding new applications to increase manufacturing and logistical efficiency

6 Forecast Projections: Latin America At the 2013 Summit, David Neeleman outlined how Azul is changing travel in Brazil. Tomorrow, Joe Mohan, CEO of VivaLatinAmerica, will be outlining another breakthrough concept that will be implemented throughout the continent in the next three years More opportunities for Canadian & US Global Portals as trade with Asia trade flows Volatile & rapid economic swings Panama as the new Singapore?

7 Forecast Projections: China Passenger Jet Airliners Units % of Total Global Total, Year ,613 Total Global Fleet, End of Year ,736 Net Increase In Fleets Globally 6, % % of Total New Airliners: Replacement 9, % New Airliners: Growth 7, % Total New Units 17,471 New Airliner Demand By Category Units % of Total Seats Plus 180 4, % Seats 6, % Seats 3, % Seats 2, % Regional Platform Jets % New Airliner Demand By Region Units % of Total Africa & Middle East 1, % Asia 1, % China 5, % Europe 4, % North America 4, % Latin America 1, % Summary Data From The Boyd Group International Global Fleet Trend & Demand Forecast, which will be presented tomorrow at the Aircraft Manufacturer s Session More new airliners will be delivered to Chinese carriers than those in any other region Need we say more?

8 At the 2013 Summit, Ben Brockwell of OPIS predicted oil would drop into the $40s. At the time it was over $100, and conventional sources showed no indication of a decline. Later today, Ben will be back with his latest predictions Fuel Even at $40 USD, it s expensive No indication that airlines will lose business sense and go into fare wars or excess capacity the play isn t there, anymore

9 US airport planning is in danger of a free-fall, with gadflies and politicians deciding what the nation needs One reportedly suggested that a rebuilt LGA should include an amusement park air travel is amusing enough without any need for a roller-coaster. Infrastructure Runways & Airways & Transportation Challenge isn t money It s keeping focused on functional future needs not trendy academic concepts and politicians pipedreams Movie theaters, massage parlors, yoga studios are not critical to air travel and will do nothing to enhance efficiency They say the US is stuck with Third World airports? Any of these guys ever visit SGF, or LAS, or BMI, or FNT, or SRQ or ORF - just for starters?

10 Final point The New Reality There are no trend lines in aviation Breakthroughs drive the future

11 Welcome to the 20 th IAFS! Let s get started!