Planning Advisory Committee March 24, 2015
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1 Planning Advisory Committee March 24, 2015
2 Opening Comments: Russ Forrest, Asst. County Manager Rick Lamport, GUC Airport Manager Introductions: Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) GUC Staff Jviation Staff Mead & Hunt Staff
3 PAC members will leave with: Understanding d of the air service market at GUC, and the dynamics of the airline industry An understanding of the future aviation demand forecasts and the methodologies used to identify future demand Awareness of the Airport s physical infrastructure and associated challenges An awareness a ess of next steps in the Master Plan
4 Start on time, end early One person speaks at a time Honor diversity of opinions Be hard on the issue, not the person Participate fully No sidebar conversations Stay focused and on point Disclose financial interests related to the airport Turn cells phones off/vibrate Use humor!
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8 Enplanement Forecast supported by air service studies Air Service Market Research Passenger Demand Analysis
9 Airline industry has recovered since 9/11 and 2008 declines; primarily il through h consolidation and capacity discipline Fuel prices continue to fluctuate wildly during past 15 years Airlines are retiring smaller aircraft and replacing with larger aircraft 50-seat regional jet -> 76-seat regional jet Smaller mainline for larger mainline US airline industry dominated by 4 airlines controlling 85% of seats
10 Airlines now profitable Increase in ancillary Air rline earning gs (Billions) $30 $20 $10 $0 revenue (e.g. bag fees) ($10) Capacity ($20) restraint ($30) Consolidation Expect record profits for 2014/2015 Higher airfares Lower fuel costs ($40) ($50) ($11) B $26 B $23 B $18 B ($26) B ($58) B Cumulative profit since 1948 Source: Airlines for America
11 Source: Aviation Week
12 250,000,000 Scheduled Seats (CY 2014) 200,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000, major U.S. air carriers (AA, WN, DL, and UA) control 84% of domestic capacity (i.e. seats) Source: Diio Mi Schedule (CY 2014)
13 $195 $185 $175 $165 $155 $145 $135 $125 Average Domestic Fare Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Fares up almost 30% since 2009, attributable to: Less competition Elimination of unprofitable routes Adherence to capacity control Source: Diio Mi US Domestic O&D Average Fare
14 500,000, Capa acity/pass sengers 450,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, Capacity Passengers Load Factor 250,000, Year Ended Double digit capacity declines since 2008 following fuel spike; load factors have continued to rise reaching ~85% for YE Nov 2014 Source: Diio Mi T-100 Seats/Onboards 12-month non-directional, one-way rolling average; LF=RPMs/ASMs Load facto or %
15 Industry capacity growing overall in the past five years Small hub and non-hub 12% airports hurt by 8% reduction in regional 6% hubs with fewer options 4% and fleet transition 2% In an environment never seen before U.S. Domestic Capacity Change by Airport Size (July 2015 vs. 2010) 10% 11% 0% (2%) (4%) (6%) 3% (5%) % change in seats (2%) 7% Large hub Medium hub Small hub Non-hub Total Source: Diio Mi Scheduled Seats
16 Domestic departures down significantly since 2010 (~8%) Reductions have impacted domestic more than international capacity Even with record profits, capacity discipline is the new mantra in this Oligopolistic industry state Carrier Departures Seats vs Domestic Schedule Comparison 2015 vs 2010 AA/US 6,186 6, % 591, , % DL/NW 5,825 5,242 (10.0%) 540, , % UA/CO 5,412 4,595 (15.1%) 448, ,564 (11.0%) WN/FL 4,152 3,776 (9.1%) 552, ,858 (0.6%) International Schedule Comparison AA/US (3.5%) 118, , % DL/NW % 86,972 97, % UA/CO (8.9%) 108, , % WN/FL % 1,370 8, % Source: Diio Mi Schedule (Friday Peak day schedule - July 2010 vs July 2015)
17 Merger officially closed December 9, 2013 Largest airline in the world with hubs in: Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City (JFK), Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington (DCA) AA re-banking DFW, MIA, ORD hubs AA has begun to connect the dots across the system TUL, OKC, GRR, DSM, FWA, EVV to US Hubs US Airways is now part of oneworld alliance Large influx of new aircraft sets AA on path to be youngest fleet of legacy airlines Airbus, Boeing and new regional aircraft
18 1,000 MIA and LAX have seen 800 the largest growth yearover-year DFW will continue to grow 200 to allow for connecting 0 the dots and large RJs Phoenix hub is mainly a large gauge connect hub 15 from SoCal to East - it will likely evolve in merger Unlikely l many or any of these hubs will see wholesale reductions (5) July 2015 Peak Day Departures DFW CLT ORD PHL MIA PHX DCA LAX LGA BOS JFK # of Destinations Served YoY (2) (1) (1) DFW CLT ORD PHL MIA PHX DCA LAX LGA BOS JFK Source: Diio Mi July 2015 vs July Peak day defined as Friday 1 8
19 July 2015 Peak Day Departures Focused on lowering 1,200 1,034 unit costs and 1,000 improving customer 800 experience Reducing 50-seat regional jets from to 100 by Active in route network adjustments MEM is no longer a # of Destinations Served YoY Y hub CVG down to departures from in Creating focus city at (5) (1) (1) SEA and shuttle in (3) (4) LAX (10) (7) (9) (15) ATL DTW MSP LGA SLC JFK LAX SEA CVG ATL DTW MSP LGA SLC JFK LAX SEA CVG Source: Diio Mi July 2015 vs July Peak day defined as Friday 1 9
20 Top 4 hubs have major competition from another legacy Competition from other legacies and LCC s have likely affected UA s financial a performance Adding 70 ERJ- 175 (76-seat, dual class) with deliveries in 2014/2015 UA s financial performance has lagged industry (5) (10) (15) July 2015 Peak Day Departures ORD IAH EWR DEN SFO IAD LAX CLE # Destinations Served YoY 3 0 (2) (3) (3) (8) (9) (12) ORD IAH EWR DEN SFO IAD LAX CLE Source: Diio Mi July 2015 vs July Peak day defined as Friday 2 0
21 Completed integration of AirTran at the end of 2014 International ti expansion Huge growth in DAL due to sunset of the Wright Amendment and other strategic focus hubs Expansion in major Northeast markets like BOS, EWR, LGA, and DCA July Peak Day Departures MDW BWI LAS DEN PHX DAL HOU ATL LAX MCO OAK SAN BNA STL TPA # of Destinations Served YoY (5) (1) (3) Source: Diio Mi July 2015 vs July Peak day defined as Friday 2 1
22 Consistently one of the more profitable major 400 airlines 300 Majority of flying based in SEA/PDX and focus to 200 fortify these hubs Added flying to SLC in 100 response to DL s growth in SEA 0 SAN has experienced a big push over the past year Major push over past 10 few years into Hawaii Ability to continue 5 expansion ERS and 0 737MAX Agreement with SkyWest for 7 E-175s (5) (3) July Peak Day Departures SEA PDX ANC LAX GEG SAN BOI SJC SFO FAI JNU SLC # of Destinations Served YoY Y (1) (1) SEA PDX ANC LAX GEG SAN BOI SJC SFO FAI JNU SLC Source: Diio Mi July 2015 vs July Peak day defined as Friday 2 2
23 Recently announced the purchase of 6 additional A-319 aircraft Expected to have a total of 30 in the fleet by 2018 Higher ownership cost requires higher utilization and the need to move into larger markets Started moving into larger markets such as IND, PIT, MSY, JAX, OMA, etc. Currently serving 99 cities majority of growth in top markets continues to be in Florida markets; LAS and AZA are basically flat year-over-year 200 March 2015 vs 2014 Weekly Departures SFB LAS AZA PIE PGD BLI CVG FLL CID FSD Source: Diio Mi Schedules for sample week in March 2015
24 Purchased by Indigo Partners LLC in December Previously owned Spirit 100 Airlines Transforming into an ULCC Looking a lot more like Spirit 50 Although DEN is still the largest market, flight capacity has dropped over 45% YoY Net loss of 18 destinations from 55 July 2014 to 37 in July 2015 Loss of large connecting hub affects smaller markets more substantially Focus is adding service to new, larger destinations with thin frequencies ATL, ORD, CLE, PHL, CVG, IAD, MSP, MIA Opportunistic play in places like CLE and CVG (10) (20) (30) July Peak Day Departures DEN ATL ORD LAS MCO CLE PHL TTN CVG IAD MSP MIA # of Destinations Served YoY (3) (18) DEN ATL ORD LAS MCO CLE PHL TTN CVG IAD MSP MIA Source: Diio Mi July 2015 vs July Peak day defined as Friday 2 4
25 Significant expansion through Adding 22 aircraft by end of additional aircraft by 2021 Future growth to be focused at medium/large airports ORD, IAH, BWI, CLE, MCI Strategy over the past year tends to favor breadth of service over depth of service Continued preference for daily service over LTD July Peak Day Departures FLL ORD DFW LAS IAH DTW LAX ATL DEN MCO MYR ACY BWI # of Destinations Served YoY FLL ORD DFW LAS IAH DTW LAX ATL DEN MCO MYR ACY BWI Source: Diio Mi July 2015 vs July Peak day defined as Friday 2 5
26 JetBlue Airways Slowed growth from historical numbers Focused on improving the business and getting more aggressive on ancillaries Continued expansion to Caribbean and Latin America and growth in BOS and FLL New markets year-over-year include DCA, BDL, CHS, PHL, and DTW Virgin America IPO completed in November 2014 Margins have improved after putting the breaks on growth and fuel cost decreasing Expansion into DAL (Love Field), AUS, EWR, ORD, DCA, LGA, etc.
27 YE 2Q2014 Passenger Demand Analysis Used to determine travel patterns from local catchment area passengers Combination of passenger ticketed information from online travel agencies/catchment area travel agencies and US DOT airline data 4,781 Airline Reporting Corporation (ARC) tickets analyzed
28 True Market = The total number of passengers from a catchment area, including passengers flying from GUC and alternate airports Results of Study: GUC retains 23% of passengers overall ~57k annually 77% of passengers divert or leak to alternate airports ~188k annually ORIGINATING AIRPORT USE RANK AIRPORT PAX % Domestic 1 DEN 142, GUC 56, GJT 11, MTJ 9, COS 8,953 4 Subtotal 228, International 1 DEN 13, GUC 1, GJT COS MTJ Subtotal 16, Domestic and international 1 DEN 156, GUC 57, GJT 11, MTJ 10, COS 9,663 4 Total 245,
29 RANK DESTINATION GUC REPORTED PAX GUC RETENTION % DIVERTED PAX TRUE MARKET PDEW 1 Houston, TX (IAH) 6, ,743 14, Dallas, TX (DFW) 9, ,251 12, Boston, MA 1, ,128 11, Austin, TX 2, ,913 8, New York, NY (LGA) 2, ,905 8, Philadelphia, PA ,153 6, Chicago, IL (ORD) 2, ,320 5, Los Angeles, CA 1, ,535 5, Tulsa, OK ,708 5, San Antonio, TX 1, ,998 5, Seattle, WA ,643 5, Atlanta, GA 1, ,426 4, Tampa, FL 1, ,679 4, Baltimore, MD ,830 4, New Orleans, LA ,584 4, San Francisco, CA ,199 4, Nashville, TN ,701 4, Pittsburgh, PA ,595 4, Fort Lauderdale, FL ,195 4, St. Louis, MO ,186 3, Phoenix, AZ (PHX) ,091 3, Newark, NJ ,589 3, San Diego, CA ,903 3, Minneapolis, MN ,512 3, Detroit, MI ,610 3, Top 25 destinations 37, , , Total domestic 56, , ,
30 RANK DESTINATION GUC REPORTED PAX GUC RETENTION % DIVERTED PAX TRUE MARKET PDEW 1 Toronto, Canada ,148 1, Calgary, Canada London, UK (LHR) Monterrey, Mexico Mexico City, Mexico San Jose, Costa Rica Victoria, Canada Sao Paulo-Guarulhos, Brazil Montego Bay, Jamaica Dublin, Ireland Top 10 destinations ,227 5, Total international 1, ,443 16,
31 REGION AIRPORT SW SE E W GL INTL NE NW C AK TOTAL DEN Pax 35,673 26,333 24,726 15,382 14,447 13,562 12,772 7,353 5, ,497 % GUC Pax 24,792 8,104 7,039 3,910 5,452 1, ,302 2,837 1, ,371 % GJT Pax 1,783 1,431 1,020 4,125 1, ,853 % MTJ Pax 2,611 1,926 1,470 1, ,073 % COS Pax 3,197 1,971 1, ,663 % Total Pax 68,056 39,765 35,484 25,745 22,528 16,546 16,363 11,974 8, ,457 % GUC Retention %
32 US 10% Percentage Airline Use by Leaking Passengers AA 9% DL 7% OTHER 5% UA 32% F9 17% WN 20% Hub airlines at DEN control 69% of diverting/leaking passengers from GUC catchment t area
33 Many reasons passengers will choose another airport: Primary airport schedule & frequency Competing airport schedules & service levels Average fares
34 MONTHLY DEPARTURES DESTINATION MARKETING AIRPORT CARRIER Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Chicago O'Hare United Dallas/Ft Worth American Denver United Houston Intercontinental United GUC Monthly Totals GUC served by two airlines American Airlines Dallas/Ft Worth daily from December thru March United Airlines Year round daily service on United to Denver Winter, less than daily service to Chicago O Hare Summer/Winter less than daily service to Houston Intercontinental Source: Diio Mi
35 All competing airports offer significantly more service than GUC With over 167 destinations served, DEN provides convenient service to GUC s top markets Source: Diio Mi; March 2015 schedules WEEKLY DEPARTURES RANK DESTINATION DEN GUC GJT MTJ COS 1 Houston, TX (IAH) Dallas, TX (DFW) Boston, MA Austin, TX New York, NY (LGA) Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL (ORD) Los Angeles, CA Tulsa, OK San Antonio, TX Seattle, WA Atlanta, GA Tampa, FL Baltimore, MD New Orleans, LA San Francisco, CA Nashville, TN Pittsburgh, PA Fort Lauderdale, FL St. Louis, MO Phoenix, AZ (PHX) Newark, NJ San Diego, CA Minneapolis, MN Detroit, MI Total top 25 frequencies 1, Number of top 25 served Total destinations served
36 AVERAGE ONE-WAY FARE GUC MAX RANK DESTINATION DEN GUC GJT MTJ COS DIFF. 1 Houston, TX (IAH) $168 $245 $263 $235 $213 $77 2 Dallas, TX (DFW) $122 $208 $211 $204 $154 $85 3 Boston, MA $204 $257 $242 $296 $231 $53 4 Austin, TX $127 $239 $172 $241 $152 $112 5 New York, NY (LGA) $178 $292 $239 $306 $230 $114 6 Philadelphia, PA $209 $303 $271 $281 $195 $108 7 Chicago, IL (ORD) $172 $230 $226 $240 $240 $58 8 Los Angeles, CA $132 $230 $138 $138 $184 $99 9 T l OK $150 $269 $262 $252 $184 $ San Antonio, TX $156 $249 $223 $264 $170 $93 11 Seattle, WA $134 $330 $213 $259 $154 $ Atlanta, GA $159 $236 $241 $213 $183 $77 13 Tampa, FL $181 $322 $241 $284 $188 $ Baltimore MD $208 $278 $252 $254 $265 $70 15 New Orleans, LA $147 $321 $249 $273 $203 $ San Francisco, CA $153 $253 $198 $227 $224 $ Nashville, TN $153 $280 $240 $263 $171 $ Pittsburgh, PA $214 $285 $297 $271 $215 $71 19 Fort Lauderdale, FL $152 $249 $257 $289 $201 $97 20 St. Louis, MO $136 $277 $229 $251 $164 $ Phoenix, AZ (PHX) $96 $241 $139 $249 $180 $ Newark, NJ $211 $346 $237 $330 $245 $ San Diego, CA $126 $276 $194 $243 $198 $ Minneapolis, MN $116 $237 $190 $239 $209 $ Detroit, MI $136 $294 $238 $279 $219 $158 Average domestic fare $178 $256 $234 $260 $233 $78 GUC s fares are significantly higher than DEN; however, very similar to 9 Tulsa, OK $150 $269 $262 $252 $184 $119 GJT, MTJ & COS Leakage to other markets likely due 14 Baltimore, MD $208 $278 $252 $254 $265 $70 to service levels, not fare differences Source: Diio Mi; YE 2Q 2014
37 GUC has nonstop service to 3 of top O&D ski hubs: ORD, DFW, & IAH LAX is prime market for growth for GUC, as it s the largest US airport for ski destinations New York area combined is largest market but stage length is a concern for GUC RESORT AIRPORT GUC % RANK AIRPORT EGE ASE JAC HDN MTJ SUN GUC MMH TOTAL SHARE 1 Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL (ORD) Dallas, TX (DFW) Houston, TX (IAH) New York, NY (LGA) Newark, NJ Atlanta, GA San Francisco, CA Miami, FL New York, NY (JFK) Boston, MA Denver, CO Seattle, WA Minneapolis, MN Philadelphia, PA Fort Lauderdale, FL Austin, TX San Diego, CA Washington, DC (IAD) Tampa, FL Washington, DC (DCA) Orlando, FL (MCO) Detroit, MI Baltimore, MD New Orleans, LA Total 1, ,
38 GUC service greatly impacted by support packages by RTA/CBMR Changes to current service levels can be made outside of normal airline economics Increase in service, aircraft gauge and frequency can be made by buying the service
39 Current Hub Service American Airlines Dallas/Ft Worth Will continue to evolve service as AA/US merge. Reintroduction of large regional jets at DFW could impact future schedules Spread schedule into shoulder or summer periods Additional frequency to allow more connecting opportunities without significant capacity increases United Airlines Denver UA s plan to significantly reduce 50-seat RJs could force GUC-DEN to 70-seat aircraft during off-peak months Houston Expand beyond current seasonal less than daily service Chicago - Expand beyond current seasonal less than daily service
40 New Hub Service American Airlines Merger has created significant ifi strains on resources at AA Potential for seasonal service to PHX or LAX hubs Delta Air Lines Strength/size of Atlanta hub could support seasonal service United Airlines SFO/LAX hubs only close hubs not served seasonally at GUC Alaska Has history of flying ski resorts with revenue guarantees; stage length of LAX or SEA could prove profit challenging depending on aircraft
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43 Review historic and current activity Review air service reports Review trends/issues influencing growth Develop forecasts Commercial enplanements & operations GA & military operations Based aircraft Operations by aircraft type (feet mix)
44 Year Passenger Enplanements Commercial Passenger Operations General Aviation/ Air Taxi Operations Military Operations Total Operations , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,831 1,292 5,235 1,100 7,627
45 Aircraft Type Operations Percentages Commercial Service 1, % Regional Jet 1, % Narrow-Body % General Aviation and Air Taxi 5, % Single-Engine Piston % Multi-Engine Piston % Turboprop 1, % Business Jet 2, % Helicopter % Military 1, % Fixed Wing 1, % Helicopter % Total 7, %
46 Scenario One (Low): Minimal increase in retention ti rate. 1.2% AAGR Scenario Two (Medium): Four percent increase in retention rate. 1.7% AAGR Scenario Three (High): Nine percent increase in retention rate. 2.5% AAGR
47 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Historical Enplanements 20,000 Jan TAF Scenario One 10,000 0 Scenario Two Scenario Three
48 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Jan TAF TAF Low Limit TAF High Limit 5,000 Preferred dforecast 0
49 Aircraft ERJ145 (50 seats) CRJ7 (69 Seats) CRJ9 (76 seats) A319 (128 seats) Departures Operations 1,292 1,300 1,352 1,508 1,612 Average Seats/Departure Enplanements 30,831 33,540 36,600 39,900 43,430 BLF 67.4% 67.2% 66.4% 65.4% 67.1%
50 30,000 25,000 Historical Operations Jan TAF 20,000 Scenario One 15,000 Scenario Two 10,000 Scenario Three 5,000 0
51 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Jan TAF 3,000 TAF Low Limitit 2,000 TAF High Limit 1,000 Preferred Forecast 0
52 Historical Based Aircraft Jan TAF Scenario One Scenario Two Scenario Three 0
53 Aircraft Type Commercial Service 1,292 1,300 1,352 1,508 1,612 Regional Jet 1,030 1,040 1,092 1,248 1,352 Narrow Body General Aviation 5,235 5,620 6,140 6,710 7,340 Single-Engine Piston Multi-Engine Piston Turboprop 1,850 1,990 2,180 2,410 2,650 Business Jet 2,137 2,290 2,500 2,735 2,990 Helicopter Military 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 Fixed Wing 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Helicopter Total Operations 7,627 8,020 8,592 9,318 10,052
54 Runway Design Code (RDC) A-I, A-II, B-I, B-II 3,339 3,633 3,952 4,300 4,678 C-I, C-II 1,793 1,951 2,122 2,309 2,515 D-I, D-II A-III, B-III, C-III C-IV Unknown RDC (including helo, military, etc.) 1,771 1,684 1,736 1,895 2,009 TOTAL 7,627 8,020 8,592 9,318 10,052
55 Operations Commercial Service 1,292 1,300 1,352 1,508 1,612 Regional Jet 1,032 1,040 1,092 1,248 1,352 Narrow Body General Aviation 5,235 5,620 6,140 6,710 7,340 Single-Engine Piston Multi-Engine Piston Turboprop 1,850 1,990 2,180 2,410 2,650 Business Jet 2,137 2,290 2,500 2,735 2,990 Helicopter Military 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 Fixed Wing 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Helicopter TOTAL OPERATIONS 7,267 8,020 8,592 9,318 10,052 Local Operations 1,373 1,404 1,461 1,537 1,608 Itinerant Operations 6,254 6,616 7,131 7,781 8,444 Passenger Enplanements 30,831 33,540 36, , , Based Aircraft by Type Single-Engine Piston Multi-Engine Piston Helicopter Turboprop Business Jet
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59 Inventory Topics Physical Facilities FAA Design Standards Airspace & Air Traffic Control Terminal Area - Building, Parking, Roads General Aviation Facilities Runway Protection Zones & Land Uses Pavement Condition Socio-Economic Characteristics & Trends Environmental Conditions Historical Aviation Activity
60 Inventory Criteria Condition of Physical Facilities Compliance with FAA Design Criteria Operational Capacity vs. Existing Demand Trends in Aviation Activity Regional Factors Impacting Activity Environmental Conditions
61 Inventory Conclusions Runways & Taxiways Provide Adequate Capacity Runway 6-24 Provides Adequate Length Terminal Building Space & Traffic Flows Are Inefficient: Creates Congestion & Confusion Non-compatible Land Uses South & Northeast Runway Pavement Deteriorating Needs Reconstruction Voluntary night curfew lights out Passenger Enplanements Declined by 44% between
62 Space Constrained Inefficient Layout Lack of Concessions Need FIDS & Signage
63 No curbside drop-ff or pick-up p No covered parking No cell phone lot No covered areas for bus loading Parking fees based on honor system
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66 Gunnison Whitewater Park
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68 Web Surveys of Airport Tenants Tenants Said Business Grew in 2014 Tenants Anticipate Growth in 2015 Peak Period = December-March Peak GA Traffic = July 4 th Holiday Tenants Identified Need For Additional Terminal Space GA Hangars Vehicle Parking Better Signage
69 Focus Group Discussions Airport Master Plan Video Production Ongoing Website Updates Social Media & Display Ads PAC Meeting Community Open House
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73 PAC Comments on Phase I documents submitted by Friday April 10th Phase II Deliverables Facility Requirements Alternatives
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