2012 Air Service Data & Planning Seminar

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Hortense Burns
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2 Advanced Schedule Data Eric Ford James Lundy Vice President Vice President Campbell-Hill Aviation Group, LLC

3 Agenda Data Components and Sources What Can You Do with the Data line Profiling Building Schedule Times for Your Forecast Integrating Schedule Data with Other Sources to Help Make Your Case

4 What Information is Available for Me to Use? Marketing and Operating lines Origin, Destination Equipment Code, craft Size Departure, Arrival Time Effective Date, Discontinue Date Week Days of Operations Number of Stops

5 Where Can I Get Schedule Data? (This list is not exhaustive)

6 Things You Can Do With Schedule Data Alone Research total flights and seats at an airport or by a carrier Research aircraft type and distance at an airport or by a carrier Research bank structures for an airline at an airport as preparation for proposing a flight Assess trends in an airline s network strategy

7 Things Where Integration of Schedule Data and Other Data Sources is Required Assess if an airport is underserved relative to peer airports Assess if a market is underserved Analyze top opportunities from an airport ranking top markets without nonstop service Calculating historical stimulation Preparing a forecast

8 Main Complementary Datasets U.S. DOT, Origin-Destination Passenger Survey and T-100 data ARC, IATA, and MIDT data U.S. Census Data Data on DMA s from Nielsen

9 Use Schedule Data to Better Understand the line You are Targeting

10 You Can Use Schedule Data to Look at Such Things as Typical route distances served by an aircraft type Hub versus point-to-point flying What are my chances of getting a wide-body? Does a potential new airline typically offer service on only one route from a new airport?

11 The Embraer 190 Seems Like the Best craft for My Market, Does it have the Range to Make it to my Market? Published Range 2,750 miles Equipment Origin Destination May Distance line Type Code Code Departures in Miles B6 E90 AUS BOS B6 E90 JFK SJU B6 E90 AUS JFK B6 E90 HOU JFK B6 E90 BOS MSY US E90 IAH PHL US E90 DFW PHL

12 What Stage Length Does an line Typically Fly with an craft Type? American 70 Seater Distance Departures < % 4% 6% 10% 9% Delta 70 Seater Distance Departures < % 8% 8% 13% 14% United 70 Seater Distance Departures < % 8% 8% 10% 10% US ways 70 Seater Distance Departures < % 17% 14% 24% 21% % 24% % 17% % 8% % 8% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 1200+

13 I ve Got a Large Un-Served Route, Would Carrier Potentially Serve it Even Though it is Not a Hub? % of Routes Not To/From Hub or Focus City Tran American Delta 1% 3% 16% % of Flights Not To/From Hub or Focus City Tran American Delta 1% 2% 8% Frontier 6% Frontier 2% JetBlue 10% JetBlue 5% United 3% United 2% US ways 4% US ways 2%

14 My 757 s are Running Full, Should I Ask For a Wide Body or Just Additional Frequency? % of U.S. Mainland Flights Operated by a Widebody 2.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.4% American United Delta US ways

15 PUJ PUJ PUJ PUJ PUJ PUJ PUJ PUJ PUJ BQN BQN BQN BQN BQN BQN BQN BQN BQN STT STT STT STT STT STT STT STT STT ST ST ST ST ST ST ST ST ST PSE PSE PSE PSE PSE PSE PSE PSE PSE SJU SJU SJU SJU SJU SJU SJU SJU SJU LRM LRM LRM LRM LRM LRM LRM LRM LRM SDQ SDQ SDQ SDQ SDQ SDQ SDQ SDQ SDQ STI STI STI STI STI STI STI STI STI POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP TPA TPA TPA TPA TPA TPA TPA TPA TPA RSW RSW RSW RSW RSW RSW RSW RSW RSW MBJ MBJ MBJ MBJ MBJ MBJ MBJ MBJ MBJ SMF SMF SMF SMF SMF SMF SMF SMF SMF SJC SJC SJC SJC SJC SJC SJC SJC SJC SFO SFO SFO SFO SFO SFO SFO SFO SFO BUR BUR BUR BUR BUR BUR BUR BUR BUR LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC DCA DCA DCA DCA DCA DCA DCA DCA DCA IAD IAD IAD IAD IAD IAD IAD IAD IAD BDL BDL BDL BDL BDL BDL BDL BDL BDL MVY MVY MVY MVY MVY MVY MVY MVY MVY LGA LGA LGA LGA LGA LGA LGA LGA LGA SWF SWF SWF SWF SWF SWF SWF SWF SWF ROC ROC ROC ROC ROC ROC ROC ROC ROC BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF BUF EWR EWR EWR EWR EWR EWR EWR EWR EWR AUA AUA AUA AUA AUA AUA AUA AUA AUA AUS AUS AUS AUS AUS AUS AUS AUS AUS BWI BWI BWI BWI BWI BWI BWI BWI BWI BGI BGI BGI BGI BGI BG BG BG BGI BDA BDA BDA BDA BDA BDA BDA BDA BDA BTV BTV BTV BTV BTV BTV BTV BTV BTV CUN CUN CUN CUN CUN CUN CUN CUN CUN CLT CLT CLT CLT CLT CLT CLT CLT CLT ORD ORD ORD ORD ORD ORD ORD ORD ORD DFW DFW DFW DFW DFW DFW DFW DFW DFW DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN DEN FLL FLL FLL FLL FLL FLL FLL FLL FLL HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU JA JA JA JA JA JA JA JA JA KIN KIN KIN KIN KIN KIN KIN KIN KIN LAS LAS LAS LAS LAS LAS LAS LAS LAS LIR LIR LIR LIR LIR LIR LIR LIR LIR LGB LGB LGB LGB LGB LGB LGB LGB LGB ACK ACK ACK ACK ACK ACK ACK ACK ACK NAS NAS NAS NAS NAS NAS NAS NAS NAS MSY MSY MSY MSY MSY MSY MSY MSY MSY OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK OAK MCO MCO MCO MCO MCO MCO MCO MCO MCO PH PH PH PH PH PH PH PH PH PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PIT PWM PWM PWM PWM PWM PWM PWM PWM PWM PD PD PD PD PD PD PD PD PD PLS PLS PLS PLS PLS PLS PLS PLS PLS RDU RDU RDU RDU RDU RDU RDU RDU RDU SLC SLC SLC SLC SLC SLC SLC SLC SLC SAN SAN SAN SAN SAN SAN SAN SAN SAN SJO SJO SJO SJO SJO SJO SJO SJO SJO SRQ SRQ SRQ SRQ SRQ SRQ SRQ SRQ SRQ SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA UVF UVF UVF UVF UVF UVF UVF UVF UVF SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SYR SYR SYR SYR SYR SYR SYR SYR SYR PBI PBI PBI PBI PBI PBI PBI PBI PBI HPN HPN HPN HPN HPN HPN HPN HPN HPN 48% 32% 7% 13% Both No BOS No JFK Neither Distribution of B6 ports: If Thinking About jetblue, What if JFK or BOS Does Not Work for My port?

16 If Only One Route Makes Sense Should I Pitch it to jetblue? Number of Routes Served at B6 ports:

17 E-190 s and A320 s Have Both Been Utilized in jetblue s Recent Expansion Routes E % A320 53% craft Use on New B6 Routes

18 Using Schedule Data to Assess An line s Recent Route Strategy

19 jetblue s New Routes Have Been Geographically Concentrated STT EWR PLS PBI MCO DCA FLL JFK PD To ANC LA LGB DFW BDL BOS HPN MVY EWR JFK DCA JA TPA MCO SRQ PBI FLL NAS PLS STI SJU STT KIN LRM SM ST To LIR BDL SJU BOS Note: Includes Routes added since November 2010.

20 Many of Spirit s New Routes Have Come from New Focus Cities Across the U.S. Long Beach LBE IAG CRW AZA BOS LGA ACY MCO Number of Routes Added From: PD OAK LA SAN LAS AZA TLC DFW ORD IAG DTW ATL MYR FLL PBG LGA LBE ACY CRW DCA MCO PBI BOS LA MYR LAS FLL SAL To LIM ORD DFW Note: Includes Routes added since June 2010.

21 Southwest New Routes Have Been Focused Primarily on Traditional Focus Cities And Atlanta Long Beach STL MHT AUS PIT BDL PVD MKE BNA RSW FLL CHS BWI GSP MDW EWR PH HOU ATL DEN Number of Routes Added From: SEA SJC GEG BOI LAS BUR LA PH TUS DEN MCI OKC AUS HOU LIT STL MSY MKE MDW PIT CMH BWI BNA RDU GSP ATL CHS JA MCO RSW FLL EWR MHT BDL BOS PVD ISP Note: Includes Routes added since September 2010.

22 Schedule Data And Forecasting

23 What are the Inbound and Outbound Bank Times for an line at a Hub? Frontier Operations at Denver Hour of Day (March 14, ) Arrivals Hour of Day Departures 1 # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # DEN Departures DEN Arrivals

24 Station Report Example craft Flight No. Carrier ORIG Depart Time Hub Time Arrive Time DEST Carrier Flight No. craft F9 MCI F9 ATL F9 MSP F9 DFW F9 DSM F9 DTW F9 CAK F9 DAY E Y ICT F9 IND DH4 993 Y COS F9 MKE E Y OMA E Y FSD DH4 976 Y ASE COS Y 1050 E PH F BIL Y 993 DH ABQ Y 1333 E LAS F SEA F SNA F SLC Y 1579 E ASE Y 979 DH MDW F PD F SAN F SFO F BZN Y 1031 E HOU F PVR F SMF F SJD F LA F

25 Where are those flights going to? Which set of markets best meets my needs? Inbound DEN Arrive DEN Originations 7am 2pm 5/6pm ABQ ASE ATL BZN CAK COS DAY DFW DRO DSM DTW GEG HDN HOU ICT IND LAS LA MCI MDW MKE MSP MSY OKC OMA PD PH SAN SAT SBA SDF SEA SFO SLC SNA STL TUS Outbound DEN Depart DEN Destinations 8am 3pm 6/7pm ABQ ASE ATL AUS BIL BNA BZN CAK COS DAY DFW DRO DSM DTW FLL GRR HOU ICT IND LAS LA MDW MKE MSN MSP OKC OMA PD PHL PH PVR SAN SAT SEA SFO SJD SLC SMF SNA STL FSD LIT PVU Choosing the best flight times for my forecast is a balance of hitting the best banks for my communities needs, capturing sufficient beyond traffic to help support the flight and maintaining practical turn times at my airport

26 U.S. Flights to Paris Are Timed to Connect to Other Europe Points Departures Arrivals CDG to/from Europe Departures Arrivals CDG to/from U.S.

27 IAD Bank Structure To/From Different U.S. Regions: Western U.S Departures Arrivals IAD to/from Western U.S Departures Arrivals IAD to/from Europe

28 IAD Bank Structure To/From Different U.S. Regions: Northeast U.S Departures Arrivals IAD to/from Northeast U.S. Departures Arrivals IAD to/from Europe

29 Select Canada U.S. Turn Times BWI Flight Equip Type DH1 DH1 DH1 DH1 In Flight Origin YYZ YYZ YYZ YYZ Departs Origin 9:00 11:55 16:05 20:10 Arrives BWI 10:35 13:30 17:40 21:45 Departs BWI 10:55 13:50 18:00 Out Flight Destination Flight YYZ 7929 YYZ 7933 YYZ 7935 Arrives Destination 12:42 15:37 19:48 Turn Time 20 minutes 20 minutes 20 minutes Flight Equip Type In Flight Origin Departs Origin Arrives SAN SAN Departs SAN Out Flight Destination Flight Arrives Destination Turn Time 580 EMB-90 YVR 8:40 11:34 12:20 YVR :29 46 minutes 777 A319 YYZ 10:25 12:50 13:35 YYZ :09 45 minutes

30 Using Schedule Data to Calculate Stimulation 5,000 4,000 FL WN All Others 3,000 2,000 1, % 70% 60% 50% 2007 Q Q Q Q Q Q2 FL Exists 2008 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 WN Enters 2010 Q Q Q Q Q2 Chicago MSP Departures (Schedule Data) Stimulation with WN = 30% YE Q Compared To YE Q % 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Chicago MSP YOY Change In O&D Passengers (O&D Data) -30% -40% -50%

31 Combine Schedule Data With Other Sources of Information To Help Tell a Story

32 Domestic Schedule by port CSA/MSA # of U.S. U.S. ports Average U.S ACS Per 100,000 Population Rank Name lines Served Daily Departures Population Destinations Flights 52 Albany ,168, Rochester, NY ,149, Fresno ,084, Dayton ,072, Knoxville ,056, Tulsa , Tucson , Omaha , Albuquerque , Little Rock , Sarasota/Bradenton , Note: Excludes Honolulu

33 Combine with Population Data CSA/MSA # of U.S. U.S. ports Average U.S ACS Per 100,000 Population Rank Name lines Served Daily Departures Population Destinations Flights 52 Albany ,168, Rochester, NY ,149, Fresno ,084, Dayton ,072, Knoxville ,056, Tulsa , Tucson , Omaha , Albuquerque , Little Rock , Sarasota/Bradenton , Note: Excludes Honolulu

34 Compute Per Capita Comparisons CSA/MSA # of U.S. U.S. ports Average U.S ACS Per 100,000 Population Rank Name lines Served Daily Departures Population Destinations Flights 52 Albany ,168, Rochester, NY ,149, Fresno ,084, Dayton ,072, Knoxville ,056, Tulsa , Tucson , Omaha , Albuquerque , Little Rock , Sarasota/Bradenton , Note: Excludes Honolulu

35 Destinations Per Capita Unique U.S. Destinations per 100,000 Population Note: Excludes Honolulu

36 Flights Per Capita Average Daily Domestic Departures per 100,000 Population Note: Excludes Honolulu

37 Compare Your port to Your Peers

38 Peer Comparison # of U.S. U.S. ports Average U.S ACS Per 100,000 Population Name lines Served Daily Departures Population Destinations Flights Oklahoma City ,327, Tulsa , Wichita , Northwest Arkansas , # of U.S. U.S. ports Average U.S. Domestic O&D Per 100,000 O&D Passengers Name lines Served Daily Departures Passengers Destinations Flights Oklahoma City ,047, Tulsa ,423, Wichita ,332, Northwest Arkansas ,

39 Highlight Deficiencies in

40 How Well Does Your Stack Up? Markets with 200+ PDEWs to Portland, OR Daily Passengers per Departure PD O&D PD O&D Daily Nonstop Daily Passengers Metro Area Passengers PDEWs Departures Per Departure Los Angeles 1,180,814 1, San Francisco 956,301 1, Las Vegas 463, Phoenix 459, Denver 431, Sacramento 370, New York 343, San Diego 318, Chicago 294, Washington 268, Salt Lake City 263, Honolulu 210, Maui 205, Spokane 196, Boise 195, Dallas 195, Boston 192, Seattle 190, Minneapolis 166, Washington Boston Maui San Diego Honolulu New York Los Angeles Dallas Las Vegas Phoenix Chicago Minneapolis Sacramento Salt Lake City Denver Boise San Francisco Spokane Seattle

41 Schedule Data Can Illustrate That Your port Performs Better than A Peer port When You Both Have Nonstop 4,500 4,000 3,500 Using O&D Alone PDEW -3% 3,973 4, Using O&D and Schedule Data PDEW in Markets with Nonstop from Both ports % 675 3,000 2, , , , Your port Peer port 0 Your port Peer port

42 The Potential Uses are Large But Beware, Don t Beat a Dead Horse Focus on What Most Reinforces Your Story

43 Q&A

2012 Airfares CA Out-of-State City Pairs -

2012 Airfares CA Out-of-State City Pairs - 2012 Airfares Out-of-State City Pairs - Contracted rates are from July 1, 2012 through June 30, 2013. Please note all fares are designated as () and ( ) in airline computer reservation systems. fares are