Great Expectations. Lifting the Lid on Airline On-Time Performance. depart from: city depart time: 14:30 arrive at: AIRPORT arrival time: 18:50

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1 Great Expectations Lifting the Lid on Airline On-Time Performance flight number: 827 status: ON-TIME depart from: city depart time: 14:3 arrive at: AIRPORT arrival time: 18:5

2 Great Expectations Lifting the Lid on Airline On-Time Performance The on-time performance (OTP) of airlines plays a valuable role in the aviation industry, but how that OTP is measured has recently come into question as a tool to reflect an airline s continuing success. At the heart of the criticism is the observation that some airline schedules have been padded over the years, making it easier to reach performance targets. In this report, OAG, with the world s largest network of air travel data and realtime Flight Status database, examines how OTP is measured and how flight schedules, with timetabled departures and arrivals, still play a fundamental role within the airline product. We also examine the critique of OTP which is presented by the new ways of looking at schedule performance as well as the evidence for padding, exploring the reasons why scheduled flight times on identical routes may vary sometimes. What is On-Time Performance? An airline departure or arrival which is considered to be on time has a departure or arrival that occurs within 15 minutes of the scheduled time. The measurement and publication of data about on-time performance acts as a powerful key performance indicator (KPI) for airlines and airports, and is also a potential service differentiator for marketing the product to air travellers OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved

3 The schedule itself is set by each airline. A variety of factors affect how the schedule is determined and may include slot availability at airports, aircraft rotations (which keep the plane airborne as much as possible) and even how the flight crew are paid. This means that two airlines operating the same route may assign a different flight time in the air, or block time. The core elements of the schedule the departure time, airborne time and the arrival time are key elements of what the airline customer is buying. The ability to plan around the schedule is vital for the passenger as they plan their journey. In a sense, the schedule is the basis of the promise an airline makes to its customer. Airline planning also relies on the schedule. None of the ancillary activities such as fuelling, catering and airport services can be planned and coordinated without a schedule. Using data from its Flight Status database at the start of 215, OAG produced the OAG Punctuality League, a benchmarking report for the best airlines and airports for on-time performance in the year of 214. OAG Punctuality League 214 Top Airlines Rank Coverage Name % Air Baltic 94.9% % Hawaiian Airlines 92.3% % Austrian Airlines 9.% % Iberia 89.7% 5 8.3% Norwegian Air Shuttle 89.7% % KLM 89.4% % Saudi Arabian Airlines 89.4% 8 99.% SAS 89.1% % Japan Airlines 88.8% % Thai AirAsia 88.7% % Finnair 88.6% % Alaska Airlines 88.5% % Air New Zealand 88.3% % easyjet 87.7% % All Nippon Airways 87.3% % Air Europa 87.1% % Lufthansa 87.1% % Monarch Airlines 86.9% % Aegean Airlines 86.5% % Air Berlin 86.4% Source: OAG Flight Status OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved

4 Getting There Faster One of the criticisms of airline on-time performance as a measure is that the time spent actually in the air for some schedules has noticeably increased over time resulting in an accusation that OTP is a measure that suits airlines but is deceptive in its relevance for passengers. A flight with better OTP may arrive later than another flight which has poorer on-time performance but is scheduled to arrive sooner. There is certainly merit in understanding better the relationship between actual flight duration and on-time performance but both approaches have value for both the customer and the airline. Earlier this year American analytics and data expert Nate Silver launched Which Flight Will Get You there Fastest? as part of his FiveThirtyEight website. Using US Department of Transport data about flight schedules he has created a highly visual and interactive online tool which allows users to compare airlines on a route. Rather than measuring airlines against a schedule, Nate compares the actual flight times. Figure 1: Which Flight Will Get You There Faster? Source: FiveThirtyEight OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved

5 It is clear from his analysis that some airlines routinely arrive sooner at their destination than others. This is valuable information for the passenger, especially those who effectively commute and for whom speed is of the essence. But it is not the whole story. For one thing, different aircraft fly at different speeds. Take the London Heathrow to Chicago O Hare route, for instance. In December 215 American Airlines, British Airways and United Airlines will operate 235 frequencies between them, of which 49% will use B763 aircraft with block times of 9:15 hours or 9:2 hours. The B777 aircraft operated by British Airways have a block time of 8:55 hours while those operated by American Airlines have a block time of 9:55 hours. Figure 2: LHR-ORD Block Times by Aircraft Type December Source: OAG Schedules Analyser Another factor affecting block time is the time spent taxiing to and from the airport terminal. Amsterdam s newest runway, the Polderbaan Runway, was deliberately located where it would have a lower noise impact on the surrounding area but it takes 15 minutes to reach the terminal after landing. Analysis of OAG Flight Status data for the week starting 2nd November 215 for flights arriving at London Heathrow from Edinburgh Airport shows that the time taken to taxi from landing varied between 4 minutes and 16 minutes. What the FiveThirtyEight analysis does show is which airports are congestion hotspots and should be avoided. This helps passengers plan travel but additionally, airlines and airports also benefit from this lens with which to view their operations. Should they be working harder to keep flights on-time? Is the problem with the schedule itself? How do they compare to their peers? Source: wikipedia OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved

6 Figure 3: EDI-LHR Week of 2-9 November 215 Time from Aircraft touch down to arrival on block Aircraft Arrivals Minutes Source: OAG Flight Status As a provider of comparative airline and airport data, OAG is a firm believer in the power of benchmarking data to bring about positive change, and this is no exception. Measuring which airlines are the fastest is valuable but it is not a substitute for the traditional measurement of on-time performance against a schedule. It s simply an alternate measure, doing something different. The industry and travellers need both. The Truth About Padding The alternative analysis of OTP, which considers the actual flight times instead of the scheduled flight times, draws attention to the fact that some airlines schedule longer to fly between two points than others. This may be considered as padding. So what is the story with airlines padding schedules? Is there truth beyond the anecdotes and memories of quicker journey times? Well yes, it s true in as much as the scheduled time to fly between two airports has increased in some cases. Take a look at these examples from busy air routes around the world. OAG Schedules Analyser has been used to extract the profile of block hours the elapsed time between leaving the gate at the departure airport and arriving at the gate at the destination airport for a number of routes. In all these instances, airlines are operating a variety of schedules with different block times and it is immediately apparent that block hours have gradually been increased. However it is not as simple as assuming that airlines have done this in order to better meet on-time performance indicators OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved

7 Figure 4: Evolution of Block Hours (Block Time December) 8 LHR-EDI 25 MAD-BCN :1 1:15 1:2 1:25 1:3 <:4 :41-:5 :51-1: 1:1-1:1 1:11-1:2 1:21-1:3 1:31-1:4 1:41-1:5 14 LGA-ORD 18 SFO-LAX :11-2:2 2:21-2:3 2:31-2:4 2:41-2:5 2:51-3: 3:1-3:1 1:1-1:1 1:11-1:2 1:21-1:3 1:31-1:4 1:41-1:5 25 MEL-SYD 1 IST-ADB :1-1:1 1:11-1:2 1:21-1:3 1:31-1:4 >1:4 :5 :55 1: 1:5 1:1 1:11 1:15 1:2 25 DEL-BOM 25 HND-FUK <1:45 1:41-1:5 1:51-2: 2:1-2:1 2:11-2:2 2:21-2:3 2:31-2:4 2:41-2:5 1:4 1:45 1:5 1:55 2: 2:5 The examples illustrate some of the other causes for an airline to allow more time in a schedule. Congestion: For routes such as Edinburgh to London Heathrow, the increase in average flight time is almost certainly linked to congestion at Heathrow which results in longer time spent on the airport apron and taxiing, and longer spent waiting if a take-off slot is missed. In the examples above, Japan s Haneda Airport and Istanbul s Ataturk Airport are also operating at or close to capacity. At airports which are congested, airlines need to keep schedules realistic so their timetables are reliable. Haneda Airport appears to be a good example of this in that despite being congested, the airport was ranked second in the OAG Punctuality League 214 amongst all airports handling more than 2 million passengers annually, with an average OTP of 87.9% over the year. Conversely, British Airways suffered with so many delays at Heathrow in the summer of 214 on some routes to the US, that it has taken the decision to drop some frequencies next summer to give more breathing space and improve OTP OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved

8 Marketing: The Madrid-Barcelona route has been subject to competition from the AVE High Speed Rail service which is scheduled to take 2:3 hours from one city centre to the other compared to around 1:3 hours for a flight plus an extra hour for pre-boarding security checks and check-in. Since the High Speed Rail service started, the volume of flights has declined. Airlines operating this route compete on journey time as well as price, reliability and convenience and it may be that flight time has become a less important attribute in that period. In situations like this where passengers have a choice of modes for travel, especially in Europe and parts of Asia, scheduled journey times are only one factor in the marketing mix. In China it may be that bad weather makes rail a better option for the Shanghai-Beijing route. In Europe, Eurostar offers faster downtown-to-downtown access but rail fares are often higher than air fares. With new HSR services on the drawing board, such as the proposed service between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, air services will be subject to the same competition issues. Aircraft utilisation: Where airlines operate high utilisation of assets, any missed take-off has substantial repercussions for subsequent operations that day. Keeping schedules realistic rather than ambitious helps ensure the integrity of the entire schedule. This is especially true for the low-cost carriers, operating schedules with tight turnarounds. In 213, Southwest Airlines, which has the largest domestic operation in the US, trimmed some schedules in order to fly more hours overall. The change, although small, was sufficient to cause a major impact on on-time performance as small delays can send ripples through the entire schedule. By building more time into the aircraft turnaround time and allowing passengers to board aircraft earlier, the airline managed to improve on-time performance in 214. Managing Expectations At the heart of the debate about on-time performance and the measurement of flight times is the need to manage customer expectations. On the one hand, passengers need to be able to plan around realistic and reliable arrival times and connecting time requirements. Prudent expectation setting means keeping schedules realistic in the face of increasingly congested hub airports. However, the environment is changing. With the advent of smartphones passengers have access to data as never before. Travellers can see flight delay information while on the move as easily as the airline and airport staff. This means passengers are more engaged and better informed about delays and on-time performance than in the past. The need for prudent expectation setting by airlines and airports remains but customer expectations may be about to change. The benchmarking of on-time performance data remains as important as ever OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved

9 This article was written using data from OAG s Schedules Analyser and its Flight Status database. OAG has the world s largest network of air travel data. It provides accurate, timely and actionable digital information and applications to the world s airlines, airports, government agencies and travel related services. For media enquiries please contact Marc Cornelius / Trudi Beggs, 8:2 Communications, +44 () or tbeggs@82comms.com Usage and attribution This information can be reproduced either in whole or in part, online or in print, for non-commercial purposes only but must include attribution to OAG and a link to OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved

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