The Start. Ed White, Vice President Corporate Real Estate, Alaska Airlines ACI-NA Economic and Finance Conference, April 7, 2009

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2 The Start Ed White, Vice President Corporate Real Estate, Alaska Airlines ACI-NA Economic and Finance Conference, April 7,

3 The Issues Airports... Desire high ratings to reduce borrowing costs Maintain liquidity and coverage to achieve higher ratings Liquidity provides Source of internal capital funds Reserves to protect against decline in enplanements / revenues Airlines See liquidity and coverage as adding to their costs Are unsure this cost provides commensurate benefits 3

4 Airport Ratings Senior Lien Airport Revenue Bond Rating Distribution as of September 30, AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- Fitch Moody's S&P Sources: Fitch Ratings, Moody s Investor Service, Standard & Poor s Rating Service Compiled by Ricondo & Associates, Inc. Sept

5 Airline Ratings U. S. Based Airline Credit Ratings as of September 30, 2009 Holding Company / Airline Fitch Moody's S&P Issuer Default / Sr Unsecured Corporate Family / Sr Unsecured Credit Rating / Sr Unsecured AirTran Holdings Inc. / AirTran Airways - Caa2 / Ca CCC+ / CCC Alaska Air Group / Alaska Airlines - B1 / B3 B / CCC+ AMR Corporation / American Airlines CCC / C Caa1 / Caa2 B- / CCC+ Continental Airlines, Inc. B- / B2 / B3 B / CCC+ Delta Air Lines, Inc. B- / - B2 / - B / JetBlue Airways Corp. B- / CC Caa2 / Ca B- / CCC Southwest Airlines Co. BBB / BBB - / Baa3 BBB+ / BBB+ UAL Corp. / United Airlines CCC / C Caa1 / - B- / CCC US Airways Group, Inc. / US Airways CCC / C Caa1 / - B- Sources: Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investor Service, Standard & Poor's Rating Service; Compiled by Ricondo & Associates, Inc. September

6 Airline Credit Considerations ATA unofficial list airline bankruptcies since 1978 Industry characteristics Extremely competitive Influenced by economic cycles Sensitive to event risk Limited barriers to entry Arguably strong barriers to exit esp. for large carriers Limited control over major expenses, notably fuel Highly leveraged Key credit factors liquidity and cash flow 6

7 Airport Credit Strengths No Recorded Defaults on General Airport Revenue Bonds Market facilitating function Open to all airlines Some limited due to physical, contractual, and/or legal constraints Limited commercial risk Significant barriers to entry Non-profit, cost-recovery nature of operations Financial backstop of the airlines Federal oversight of rates and charges Airport revenues restricted to airport uses These strengths support investment grade ratings for airports 7

8 Changing Airport Credit Characteristics Airports have accepted greater short-term risk through: Compensatory use and lease agreements Cost-recovery mechanism remains annual rate adjustments / extraordinary coverage provisions Shortened length of use and lease agreements Preferential and common use gate provisions Rising debt levels In return, they gain greater control over facilities through: Ability to accumulate cash reserves / internal capital Incentives to maximize non-airline revenues Diminished MII provisions Ability to reallocate gates / accommodate new carriers 8

9 Airport Ratings A Declining Trend Senior Lien Rating Changes January 1, September 30, 2009 Fitch Moody's S&P Rating Upgrades Rating Downgrades Outlook Revisions - Up Outlook Revisions - Down All three agencies have a negative outlook for the industry Sources: Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investor Service, Standard & Poor's Rating Service Compiled by: Ricondo & Associates, Inc. September

10 Liquidity - Why its important to the airlines Offset short-term events / changes in business conditions Ability to maintain market access Corporations issue bullet maturities, assume refinance risk Sources of liquidity Cash on hand Sale of stock Sale of unencumbered financial assets (e.g. miles, aircraft) Sale of nonstrategic assets (e.g. regional airline) Revolving line of credit Issuance of debt Support from outside vendors or lessors 10

11 Liquidity - Why its important to airports Offset short-term events / changes in business conditions Maintain ability to raise capital in municipal market Capital intensive, long planning horizon Airports issue amortizing bonds Coverage and liquidity significant rating considerations Source of internal capital funds Sources of liquidity Cash on hand Debt Revolving line of credit, short-term, long-term 11

12 Cost to airlines? Airlines believe high coverage and liquidity: Could be better used to reduce rates and charges Achieves lower return than alternative uses Allows for prefunding of capital projects that are better off being financed Airports believe high coverage and liquidity: Maintains high ratings, lowering borrowing costs Reduces their need for external borrowing, lowering costs 12

13 Borrowing costs a quick example $100 million municipal bond Level debt service, calculated on mortgage style basis 30-year term, 20-year rates used for average cost Municipal Market Data General Obligation Scale - revenue bond spreads likely differ Source: The Bond Buyer October 7, 2009 Airport serves 7.5 million annual enplanements Rating category AA A BBB Interest Rate 3.62% 4.12% 5.00% Annual debt service $5,520,000 $5,870,000 $6,500,000 CPE $0.74 $0.78 $0.85 Total interest cost $65,575,000 $76,027,000 $95,154,000 13

14 Liquidity considerations for airports Rating agencies do not have established targets Rating agencies favor airports with higher liquidity / coverage to their peers In setting a goal regarding appropriate liquidity level, an airport should consider: Seasonal cash flow variances Level of financial exposure to any one carrier or group of airlines Effect of a 10% - 15% decline in enplanements on revenues Annual debt service and other fixed obligations Amount of variable rate debt and interest rate exposure Pending capital needs Potential alternative uses of cash assets Ramifications on airline rates and charges 14

15 Lower ratings costs to airports Non-investment grade ratings Corporate issuers have established non-investment grade market Municipal non-investment grade market is thin and illiquid Vast majority of municipal issuers are investment grade Market largely consists of risk-averse individual investors Most municipal mutual funds limited in amount of non-investment grade bonds they can hold Untried bankruptcy process Security limited to revenue stream May result in prolonged period of recovery Significantly higher interest rates Risk loss of market access Risk loss of public support, political will to undertake projects 15

16 Next steps Draft report submitted to committee for review Present initial findings for comment and feedback Need consensus on appropriate cost / benefit calculations Develop calculations and submit to committee for review Revise report for final committee review Publish paper for industry comment period Incorporate industry comments and publish final paper 16

17 Thank you for your interest Comments / suggestions Peter Stettler Ricondo & Associates, Inc 20 N. Clark Street Suite 1500 Chicago, Illinois Phone: p_stettler@ricondo.com 17

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