Contents. Editorial. Focus. Stakeholder Forum. Interview. Independent Platform. Review. Datelines. Update. Visits & Agreements

Transcription

1 Challeges of Growth Skyway is a quarterly publicatio of the Europea Orgaisatio for the Safety of Air Navigatio, EUROCONTROL Volume 12, Number 50, Witer 2008

2 Cotets Editorial Focus 2008 Challeges of Growth study Forecastig the challeges ahead Evirometal performace: a ecessity Mitigatig the challeges ahead What the experts have to say Stakeholder Forum Cooperative approach to likig efficiecy gais with the capacity challege (by ACI EUROPE) The future of ATM i Europe (by ELFAA) Iterview Skyway talks to Fraçois Queti, Co-Chairma ACARE Idepedet Platform Log-term solutios to log-term challeges Review Albaia Datelies Aviatio & Eviromet Summit, November 2008, Bordeaux, Frace Update Eurocotrol pioeers ext-geeratio of iteroperable Flight Data Processig System Visits & Agreemets Skyway Magazie is a EUROCONTROL publicatio. Articles appearig i this magazie do ot ecessarily reflect EUROCONTROL s official policy. Publisher: David McMilla Maagig Editor: Jea-Jacques Sauvage Editor: Lucia Pasquii lucia.pasquii@eurocotrol.it Liguistic Advisers: Laguage Service Layout: Frédérique Fyo Photography: Christia Sampoux, Véroique Paul/Graphix Pritig: EUROCONTROL Logistics ad Support Services Articles, photographs ad letters from readers are welcome. Whilst every care will be take of material submitted for publicatio, the Maagig Editor regrets that he is uable to accept resposibility for ay loss or damage. EUROCONTROL Website:

3 Editorial Editorial Dear readers, Chers lecteurs, 2008 was a particularly hard year for the air trasport idustry. Oil prices were volatile, with prices soarig to $147 per barrel ad the fallig agai. Several flag carriers were sold or restructured ad a umber of low-cost, log-haul carriers stoppig flyig altogether. Passeger umbers, cargo volumes ad load factors fell, causig further tremors i the idustry. IATA expected the global airlie idustry to post losses of US$5.2 billio i 2008, otig that there seemed to be o limit to the crisis. But, here at EUROCONTROL, there were also some positive poits. Sprig saw a high ote with the acceptace of the SESAR Master Pla ad Work Programme, a evet which paved the way towards the establishmet of the SESAR Joit Udertakig, the lauch of which took place at the ed of the year. EUROCONTROL uderwet a process of moderisatio ad reform to esure that it is fit for purpose. Stakeholders were give a much more active role i the maagemet ad decisio-makig processes. The Agecy itself was restructured, eablig it to better meet expectatios ad to prepare itself for future tasks ad fuctios. Various partership projects were carried out: CANSO, IATA ad EUROCONTROL siged a five-poit pla to reduce fuel bur ad emissios ad ACI Europe ad EUROCONTROL agreed to joi forces to combat airport cogestio. We also kept up our efforts to alig SESAR with NextGe, the Uited States air traffic maagemet moderisatio programme also saw the publicatio of the 2008 Challeges of Growth study, the third i the series ad based o EUROCONTROL s forecasts. Skyway readers ca fid the coclusios ad fidigs of this study i this editio. O the whole, the forecasters are optimistic that the air trasport idustry will emerge from the troubled fiacial times that they are goig through ow ad that the prospects for growth are good perhaps eve too good, for there could be as may as 2.3 millio uaccommodated flights by the year This is the ed of my first year at EUROCONTROL ad it has bee a fasciatig oe. I thak all who helped make it so productive staff ad stakeholders alike. I wish every oe of you a productive, creative ad positive David McMilla, Director Geeral L aée 2008 aura été particulièremet rude pour l idustrie du trasport aérie. Les prix du pétrole ot cou ue forte istabilité, culmiat à 147 USD le baril pour retomber esuite. Plusieurs compagies aériees atioales ot été vedues ou restructurées, et u certai ombre de trasporteurs log-courriers à bas coûts ot complètemet cessé leurs activités. Le ombre de passagers, le volume du fret aisi que le taux de remplissage des aéroefs ot chuté, provoquat de ouvelles secousses das le secteur. L IATA s atted à ce que l idustrie modiale du trasport aérie eregistre des pertes à hauteur de 5,2 milliards d USD cette aée et costate que la crise e semble pas avoir de limites. Mais ici, à EUROCONTROL, le bila affiche aussi des poits positifs. Au pritemps, l approbatio du Pla-cadre et du programme de travail SESAR a costitué u évéemet majeur, qui a ouvert la voie à la créatio de l Etreprise commue SESAR, dot le lacemet a eu lieu à la fi de l aée. EUROCONTROL a subi u processus de moderisatio et de réforme afi d être parfaitemet adaptée au but qui lui est assigé. Les parteaires se sot vu attribuer u rôle beaucoup plus actif das les processus de gestio et de décisio. L Agece elle-même a été restructurée, ce qui lui permet de mieux répodre aux attetes et de se préparer à ses tâches et foctios futures. Différets projets de parteariat ot été meés à bie : la CANSO, l IATA et EUROCONTROL ot sigé u pla e ciq poits visat à réduire la cosommatio de carburat et les émissios de gaz des aéroefs ; ACI Europe et EUROCONTROL sot coveus d uir leurs forces pour lutter cotre l ecombremet des aéroports. Nous avos égalemet poursuivi os efforts afi d aliger SESAR et NextGe, le programme de moderisatio de l ATM des États- Uis. L aée 2008 a aussi vu la publicatio de l étude «Défis à la croissace 2008», troisième de la série, qui se fode sur les prévisios d EUROCONTROL. Le lecteur de Skyway trouvera les coclusios et résultats de cette étude das le préset uméro. Globalemet, les prévisioistes sot optimistes, estimat que le secteur du trasport aérie sortira de la situatio fiacière troublée qu il traverse actuellemet et que les perspectives de croissace sot boes peut-être même trop : e effet, le ombre de vols o pris e charge pourrait s élever à 2,3 millios d ici à Plus persoellemet, me voici arrivé au terme de ma première aée à EUROCONTROL, et j e garderai le souveir d ue aée passioate. Je remercie tous ceux qui m ot aidé à la redre si productive, tat les membres du persoel que les parteaires. Je souhaite à chacu d etre vous ue aée 2009 fructueuse, créative et positive. David McMilla, Directeur gééral Skyway 50 - Witer

4 Focus 2008 Challeges of Growth study Bo Redebor, Director Cooperative Network Desig, looks at the Challeges of Growth study recetly released ad the progress made sice the first such report was released i 2001, highlightig the importace of forecastig ad aalysig traffic data ad demad i order to prepare for ad address the challeges ahead. 4

5 10 8 Flights i Europe (millio) IFR flights Log-term tred Average growth Aual growth 5% 0 0% Oil Oil Ecoomic boom Figure 1. The log-term view of past growth is of a stable log-term tred Gulf war IT boom Kosovo 9/11-5% Figure has see disruptio to aviatio ad to the ecoomy as a whole. Ecoomic growth, load factors, cargo volumes, flight couts ad airlies are also fallig. All the sigs are there idicatig that 2009 is also goig to be a difficult year. Whe it comes to lookig ahead, the coclusio is apparetly clear: 2009 will be eough of a challege without worryig about Such a view would be complacet. This is exactly the right time to forecast ad to aalyse the results. After all, a forecast is all about givig structure to ucertaity. The growth of aviatio has ecoutered periods of turbulece ad crisis i the past ad will do so agai i the future (see Figure 1). A forecast allows a course to be refied ad held through turbulet times. Steerig through 2009 will certaily be a major challege, but the idustry eeds to emerge from the storm headig i the right directio. The log-term challeges cotiue to require decisios ad actio today. Good decisios require good data That is why we lauched the 2008 Challeges of Growth study. It is the third i a series (the first two havig bee published i 2001 ad 2004) which provide decisio-makers with up-to-date assessmets of the challeges preseted by the icreasig demad for air trasport. The mai report was published at the ed of November 1. The 2008 Challeges of Growth study cosiders three areas of growth growig ecoomies, growig demad for trasport ad growig umbers of flights which are likely to remai liked ad thus preset log-term challeges requirig log-term solutios. 1- See www. eurocotrol.it/ statfor. Skyway 50 - Witer

6 Focus 2008 Challeges of Growth study The scope of the report is as broad as these challeges themselves. The study directly addresses: the growth i demad for air traffic, through a ew log-term forecast; the ever-developig plas of airports to respod to that demad; icreasigly this also takes i TMA capacity; the gap betwee those plas ad the demad for flights, ad the implicatios of this for the air trasport etwork; what ca be doe to bridge the gap; the icreasig difficulty i meetig the Europea ecoomy s eed for mobility without compromisig evirometal goals, ideed the icreasig difficulty of balacig competig evirometal goals, such as local oise ad global emissios; how the chagig climate will chage aviatio. The report also provides a broad survey of how those i the idustry see the outlook for 2030 ad its challeges (see article o page 16). demad ad i delays. I particular, they voiced cocers about safety, shortages of air traffic cotrollers, growig cogestio at airports, the eviromet ad sustaiable developmet. Miisters asked the Directors Geeral of the Europea Civil Aviatio Coferece (ECAC) ad EUROCONTROL to study these questios i cooperatio with stakeholders. The result was a study called Costraits to Growth, published i The study forecast a growig mismatch betwee supply ad demad, with some 15% of demad ot accommodated by 2010, meaig that 15% of flights for which there would be demad Air traffic growth is ot a aim i its ow right ad, depedig o the criteria, it ca be either a beefit or a threat. would ot be performed owig to lack of capacity. The report highlighted the iter-depedecies betwee costraits withi the air traffic etwork, ad hece the eed for a strategy which addressed the etwork as a whole. The secod study was lauched to update the iitial results i the light of chages to air traffic i Europe, such as the growth of low-cost carriers ad the dow-tur i traffic liked to 9/11. Challeges to Growth 2004 idicated that, eve if may airports could be brought to best-i-class performace by 2025, it would still be impossible to accommodate 18% of demad by the, ad that the top 20 airports would be saturated at least 8-10 hours per day. The 2004 report has provided a shared referece poit for much of the discussio i Europe o airport costraits i the last four years, ad its results are widely quoted as evidece i SESAR A deliberate omissio from this list is e-route capacity. Of course we at EUROCONTROL ad our colleagues i the idustry are well aware that there are major risks ad challeges i deliverig the required e-route capacity o time, but as with previous studies the output from this oe will be used to help scale the future ATM system, rather tha vice versa. Chages i aviatio outlook The demad for the first Challeges study came out of the Kosovo crisis. I Jauary 2000, the Europea Miisters of Trasport discussed the challeges preseted by the growth i air trasport Véroique Paul/Graphix 6

7 reports ad i commuicatios from Europea istitutios ad from stakeholder associatios. For example, SESAR calculated that by 2025, the lack of capacity could cost the Europea ecoomy 90 billio/year. The Challeges study eeded a further update to reflect the may chages i the outlook for aviatio over the last four years, ot just the cotiuig evolutio i demad ad chages to airports plas i respose to that, but also the rapid developmet i the uderstadig of evirometal questios ad the idustry ad regulatory respose to them. The 2008 update improves o the previous studies as a result of a closer egagemet with stakeholders, a more complete survey of airports plas for future capacity, detailed discussios o future visios for aviatio ad the resultig challeges, ad approaches to mitigatig the capacity challege which have bee adapted to differet market segmets after cosultatio with operators ad airports. This ew study is called Challeges of Growth. The chage of ame idicates the icreasig recogitio that air traffic growth is ot a aim i its ow right ad that, depedig o the criteria, it ca be either a beefit or a threat. Traffic growth is see as a itermediate eabler of larger beefits such as icreased prosperity, sustaiable ecoomic growth, social cohesio, corporate profitability ad job security while carryig with it threats such as a icreased evirometal impact. Cosequetly, growth i demad is ot oly welcomed for its beefits, it is also the cause of sigificat challeges for the air trasport idustry ad more widely for society. Later articles i this issue of Skyway expad o the mai themes of the Challeges study. I summary, the most importat coclusios are as follows: Airports have respoded. Their plas are better adapted to demad tha they were four years ago. Airports are ow expected to hadle 1.7 millio more flights i 2025 tha forecasted four years ago, at the same level of cogestio. However, there is still a sigificat airport capacity problem: eve i the modest-growth, regulatio ad growth sceario, which looks the most likely, 11% of demad will ot be accommodated. Air traffic maagemet eeds to be ready to maage a highlycogested etwork, with 20 airports as cogested as Heathrow by 2030, ad 50% of each day s flights passig through those airports. Some of the gap betwee demad ad capacity ca be bridged. Mitigatio actio icludes use of alterative airports, SESAR ad further ivestmet i airports beyod their curret plas, but high-speed trais are of oly arrow applicability i this respect. The start of emissios tradig will mea more evirometal challeges, ad a icreasig focus o trade-offs betwee evirometal beefits. Climate chage is comig, ad it could chage patters of demad, so we eed to develop a agile air trasport system. Challeges could ot have reported at a more appropriate time, as the Airport Observatory begis its work, airport expasio plas are agai i the spotlight i may States, ad SESAR begis its work of deliverig the ext geeratio of ATM. The data ad aalysis are available, ad will iform decisio-makig i these challegig times. Skyway 50 - Witer

8 Focus Forecastig the challeges ahead Every two years, EUROCONTROL s Statistics & Forecast Service (STATFOR) produces a log-term forecast, which looks ito the future of the air traffic idustry over the ext twety years. This year s forecast (LTF08) was a mai compoet of the 2008 Challeges of Growth study, providig data for other work packages which looked at the challeges facig forecast air traffic to Madga Gregorova ad David Marsh report. 1- Europe here meas the EUROCONTROL Statistical Referece Area (ESRA). See the report for its defiitio. The startig poit for the ew log-term forecast was aother major compoet of the Challeges study: a updated accout of airport plas for capacity. I this survey of airports ad service providers, with the help of ACI EUROPE, the Agecy obtaied iformatio o the curret situatio ad future plas for early 250 airports. From this iformatio, capacity plas to 2030 were idetified for 138 airports, which is twice the umber covered by the study four years ago. If these plas ca be delivered, the the 138 airports i total projected that their capacity would be 41% higher i 2030 tha 2007, breakig dow as follows: a 18% icrease at 27 airports with ew ruways, i additio to other ifrastructure; a 17% icrease at a further 79 airports, which pla to improve the ifrastructure air-side (taxiways, apros etc.) or groud-side (passeger termials, etc.); a 6% icrease at five major ew airports; ad oly 27 airports reportig o curret plas to expad capacity. Lookig more tha 20 years ahead, the aim of a log-term forecast is ot to give a sigle figure for the future umber of flights, but rather to provide decisiomakers with a structured view of the possible futures for air traffic, to give them a tool to assess the opportuities ad risks related to chagig coditios i the air idustry ad the world i geeral. Differet scearios This was achieved by defiig a set of four scearios, each of them havig rather differet circumstaces, ad by modellig the demad ad traffic umbers for each of these. Each of the scearios is characterised by a basic story-lie, which is traslated ito quatitative terms i a mix of factors (ecoomic growth, oil ad ticket prices, passeger demad, etc.) which are used i the forecast model. The four scearios used i the Log- Term Forecast 2008 are: a strog-growth sceario A (global growth) whose storylie is for strog ecoomic growth i a icreasigly globalised ecoomy, with techology used successfully to mitigate the effects of challeges such as the eviromet ad security; two mediumgrowth scearios: B (busiess as usual) with moderate ecoomic growth ad little chage from the status quo, that is to say treds cotiue as curretly observed, ad C (regulatio ad growth) with moderate ecoomic growth, but with stroger regulatio to address growig evirometal challeges for aviatio ad for Europe more geerally; ad a low-growth sceario D (fragmetig world) with a world characterised by icreasig tesios betwee regios, with kock-o effects of weaker ecoomies, reduced trade ad less loghaul travel. Sceario C (regulatio ad growth) is see as the most likely of the four, ad sceario A (global growth) is clearly the most challegig for etwork capacity. The 2008 Challeges of Growth study therefore focuses o these two. Results The results of the Log-Term Forecast 2008 are that there will be betwee 16.5 millio ad 22.1 millio IFR (istrumet flight rules) flights i Europe 1 i This is betwee 1.7 ad 2.2 times the umber see i 2007, a average growth of 2.2%-3.5% a year. This doublig of traffic by 2030 meas that every year, more tha 1000 extra flights will eed to be hadled o a typical day tha i the year before. 8

9 I 2030, the typical umber of flights i the Europea etwork i oe day will be 18,000-33,000 more tha ow. Europea airports i 2030, risig to a quarter of demad i the most challegig sceario. I 2030, the typical umber of flights i the Europea etwork i oe day will be 18,000-33,000 more tha ow. The growth i traffic is ot evely distributed: growth is stroger i the Easter Europea States, which are catchig up with the more developed ecoomies i the West. As a result, Turkey ad Polad will joi the 10 busiest states i Europe by Not surprisigly, it is the bigger States (Germay, followed by Frace ad the UK) which will see the biggest growth i flights through their airspace. However, ot all of that growth is home-grow: overflights play a importat role i future forecast growth, from the perspective of both the idividual States ad the whole of Europe. I may Wester Europea States, the domestic air trasport market is showig the slow growth or declie which idicates icreasig maturity. Moreover, o some busy routes, short-haul air travellers will cotiue to switch to the improvig high-speed rail etwork. As a result, growth i traffic, both withi States ad withi Europe, is sigificatly slower tha for flights to ad from Europe, or ideed those over Europe which do ot lad here. Some o-europea ecoomies (Chia, Idia, Russia, etc.) are expected to develop strogly i the comig years ad the related busiess opportuities will icrease the umber of flights coectig them with Europe. I the most likely, regulatio ad growth sceario, flights withi Europe will grow by oly 1.9% a year, while those departig from or arrivig i Europe from other regios will grow by 4.7% a year. The most dyamic movemet, albeit relatively small i absolute umbers, will be the growth i flights betwee a pair of o-europea regios crossig Europea airspace (5.7% a year). All of the above results refer to the forecast umber of flights i Europe. The uderlyig demad for flights from passegers ad airlies is, however, much larger tha the forecast umber of flights: 2.3 millio flights more i the most likely, regulatio ad growth sceario ad as may as 7.0 millio flights i the most challegig, global growth sceario i This differece betwee the demad ad the umber of flights is essetially the result of isufficiet capacity of the airport system. The fial effect o forecast traffic is that i the most likely sceario 11% of flight demad will ot be accommodated at The seriously-challeged air traffic etwork will ot simply reject this uaccommodated demad ad cotiue to operate as efficietly as today. The etwork will be challeged both because more ad more segmets of the etwork reach their capacity ad because delaycausig evets become more likely (see the article later o climate chage). As a result, the etwork will be vulerable both to regular delays ad to flight cacellatios o a uprecedeted scale uless there strog actio is take to maage the situatio. Eve i the modest-growth, regulatio ad growth sceario, 19 Europea airports will eed to operate at full capacity more tha 8 hours a day i This umber rises to 39 airports for the most challegig sceario. I compariso with today s situatio, this meas that i 2030 there will be close to 20 Europea airports operatig very much like Heathrow does ow. I his opeig article, Bo Redebor illustrated how the growth i Europea flight umbers has bee costat at a aual rate of just uder 4% for may years. The forecast is that this tred is reachig its ed i Europe: a combiatio of maturig markets, airport costraits, ad icreasig costs of fuel ad emissios poit to slower growth i the years to come. However, eve slower growth will brig challeges. More details of the forecast are i the log-term forecast report, available at Skyway 50 - Witer

10 Focus Evirometal performace: a ecessity Improved evirometal performace has become a ecessity. If efficiecy ca be further improved ad emissios cut, this will lead to evirometal beefits whilst at the same time improvig the image of the aviatio idustry. Ultimately, this ca oly lead to a more sustaiable ad profitable busiess, as Adrew Watt, Rachel Burbidge ad Ala Melrose of the Agecy s Eviromet Uit explai. Despite aviatio s comparatively small cotributio of 2% to ma-made CO 2 emissios, the public ad media perceptio of the idustry s evirometal impact esures its cotiued promiece o the political ageda. As a result, the idustry is subject to icreasig evirometal regulatio. The Sigle Europea Sky ATM Research (SESAR) iitiative calls for a 10% reductio i evirometal impact per flight ad October 2008 marked the formal agreemet by the Europea Coucil to iclude civil aviatio i the Europea Uio s emissios tradig scheme (EU ETS), as a meas of cotrollig ad reducig aviatio emissios as part of the global attempt to combat climate chage. Comig ito force i 2012, the aviatio elemet of the scheme will cover all flights arrivig at or departig from EU airports, makig it ecessary for aircraft operators to acquire a permit to cover the emissios their fleets will produce. This may be followed by further regulatio to reduce itroge oxide (NOx) emissios if a soud scietific basis for this ca be established. No ew legislatio o oise or local air quality is curretly evisaged at EU level. However, emissios-related ladig charges are either already i place or plaed at airports i Switzerlad, Swede ad at some UK ad Germa airports. This tred is expected to cotiue, although, ulike i the case of oise-related charges, there is o firm evidece yet that it alters fleet compositio. Evirometal ad ecoomic pressures It is o secret that the aviatio idustry is uder pressure from fuel prices ad a global ecoomic slow-dow, but what effect will this additioal, evirometdrive, regulatio have o a idustry which is already strivig to become both ecoomically ad evirometally sustaiable? Icreased fuel prices have already bee the catalyst for a drive towards improved efficiecy, aimed at cuttig costs by decreasig fuel cosumptio through steps such as developmet of more efficiet aircraft, reducig aircraft weight may airlies ow carry plastic wie bottles because they are lighter or improvig gate-to-gate efficiecy where possible. As 1 toe of fuel produces just over 3 toes of CO 2, ay cost liked to the release of emissios is directly related to the amout of fuel cosumed. This further reiforces the icetive to decrease fuel cosumptio, despite the recet, probably temporary, drop i the oil price. Although it remais to be see how the market price of carbo will develop, it is expected to be aroud per toe i the medium term, with may aalysts predictig sigificat rises i the loger term. Aviatio s respose The idustry s respose to these two costs will almost ievitably be a eve sharper focus o fuel efficiecy. This may lead to the itroductio of larger 10

11 December 2008 at COP14 i Poza, Polad. To agree the successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires i 2012, a agreemet is expected to be fialised at COP 15 i Copehage i December The 2008 Challeges of Growth study expects the EU emissios tradig scheme to reduce demad by aroud 1 millio departures a year or 5% by aircraft which, depedig o growth i demad, might ecessitate a reductio i frequecies o some routes i order to icrease load factors. Alteratively, it may lead to icreased use of smaller secodary airports to cut other costs such as ladig fees. This could have the effect of displacig traffic, with resultig cosequeces for route legth potetially leadig to trade-offs betwee fuel ad carbo costs o the oe had ad capacity o the other. There might also be a possible icrease i groud trasport impacts, ticket pricig ad passeger demad, ad it may also create the eed for improved ifrastructure ad groud trasport coectios to the airports cocered. I fact, the EUROCONTROL 2008 Challeges of Growth study expects the EU emissios tradig scheme to reduce demad by aroud 1 millio departures a year or 5% by This agai reiforces the treds arisig from icreased fuel costs towards a eed to esure greater efficiecy by cuttig costs ad maximisig profit per passeger. This is likely to be sustaied by decisios made at the ext two UNFCCC Cofereces of the Parties (COP). Negotiatios bega i However, this may ot be the whole story. Although the aviatio ETS is ot due to come ito force util 2012, givig the idustry time to itroduce mitigatio measures, it should ot be forgotte that the overall scheme has bee established through the ETS Mother Directive which is curretly uder review. Although the extet of ay potetial amedmets is ot yet kow, it is possible that this may lead to substatially more auctioig of aviatio emissios permits earlier tha expected, which will certaily have a effect o the market price per toe. Perhaps surprisigly, we should be lookig across the Atlatic for idicators as to what to expect. The Regioal Greehouse Gas Iitiative (RGGI), a emissios tradig scheme curretly comprisig te US States, has bee active sice 2005 ad held its first emissios permit auctios i September this year 1. Although the scheme curretly oly ecompasses the eergy sector, treds resultig from the secod plaed permit auctio i December 2008 could be used as a proxy idicator for what to expect i Europe. This is ot the oly reaso to keep a close eye o evets across the Atlatic. The recet electio of a ew America Presidet has raised a geeral expectatio of a ew approach to evirometal issues ad chages to existig policies, with the Presidet-elect idicatig he will take measures to curb greehouse gas emissios ad icrease ivestmet i reewable eergy. How this will affect 1- Skyway 50 - Witer

12 Focus Evirometal performace: a ecessity the iteratioal aviatio idustry remais to be see. However, it is possible that we will see a covergece of regioal schemes such as RGGI leadig to the developmet of a ETS at federal level. The EU ETS is a ecoomic policy istrumet drive by the political commitmet to cotrol emissios ad icrease efficiecy i a effort to combat climate chage. However, the impact of climate chage itself could also directly affect aviatio. Although some scepticism remais as to whether the cause is athropogeic, there is ow a geeral cosesus amog scietists, idustry ad policy-makers that our climate is ideed chagig. The resultig effects, such as icreasig temperatures, risig sea levels, possible water shortages ad more frequet extreme weather evets, will affect all aspects of life, ot least the aviatio idustry. However, as the preset degree of kowledge o this topic is relatively small, the timig ad extet of potetial impacts are ot yet fully uderstood. Nevertheless, the sigificace of the risk has bee recogised by SESAR, which calls for more research i this area. Climate chage A early respose to this call for uderstadig is EUROCONTROL s 2008 Challeges of Growth study, which icludes the first results from a scopig study ito the potetial climate chage implicatios for the ATM system. flood-plais, the resultig rise i sea levels could affect capacity, operatios ad groud access. As the heat at the ocea s surface ca take may years to trasfer to its deeper, colder waters, sea level rise caot be halted immediately, suggestig that plaig for impacts o capacity at coastal airports may be ecessary at some poit i the future. This is ot the oly possible effect of risig global temperatures. The IPCC Fourth Assessmet Report predicts average temperature rises of up to 6.4 C over the course of the ext cetury. The agreeably warm beaches of the Mediterraea could become sigificatly hotter durig the summer moths, leadig to a potetial declie i tourism ad a correspodig decrease i demad for some of Europe s busiest high-seaso airports ad flight routes. The reverse of this may be a shift i tourist traffic to the ewly warmer Norther Europea destiatios, a shift i demad for witer-sport-related flights, ad a extesio of the summer holiday seaso itself thaks to earlier sprigs ad later witers. However, it is ot just a chage i temperature for which the idustry eeds to be prepared. It is also projected that there will be a icrease i extreme weather evets such as storms ad flash floods, which have the potetial to affect operatios. Social acceptability of air travel our holidays at home, ad the public becomes better iformed o evirometal issues, it is possible that the loghaul holiday to a exotic locatio may lose its social status, becomig icreasigly ujustifiable. Such a decrease i demad has obvious ecoomic cosequeces. It ot oly reiforces the eed for techological improvemets to lesse aviatio s evirometal impacts but suggests that a cocerted public relatios campaig to restore the status of air travel may also be ecessary i the loger term. Coclusio The challeges beig faced are uprecedeted ad difficult to predict i terms of likelihood, timig ad severity. Improved evirometal performace has become both a legal ad ecoomic ecessity i order to improve curret fiacial results, comply with regulatios ad combat the future effects of climate chage o the idustry. The drive towards techological ad operatioal improvemet must cotiue. Achievig all this whilst protectig reveue i icreasigly ucertai ecoomic times is a fie balacig act. However, if efficiecy ca be further improved ad emissios cut, this will lead to evirometal beefits whilst at the same time improvig the image of the idustry. Ultimately this ca lead oly to a more sustaiable ad profitable busiess. 2- IPCC Fourth Assessmet Report Summary for Policy Makers, p. 13. These suggest that ifrastructure, operatios ad eve the demad for travel itself could all be affected. There is a high degree of scietific cofidece that global temperatures will cotiue to rise if CO 2 emissios are ot stabilised. With a sigificat umber of Europea airports located i areas such as coastlies or As if this were ot eough, the idustry is also uder attack from aother, less obvious, directio. The costat media focus o the perceived evirometal impact of aviatio may evetually challege the social acceptability of air travel. As we are icreasigly ecouraged to travel loger distaces by trai or take 12

13 Mitigatig the challeges ahead Patricia Cauwebergh, Strategy ad Stakeholder Relatios Maagemet Expert at the EUROCONTROL Experimetal Cetre, explais the six methods idetified i the 2008 Challeges of Growth study to reduce the umber of flights (2.3 millio) expected to exceed demad i The previous articles focused o the future demad for air trasport i 2030 i Europe ad o the mai challeges associated with respodig to that demad. A particular feature of these challeges is that depedig o the log-term forecast sceario, demad i 2030 is forecast to be betwee 1.7 ad 2.9 times the 2007 traffic level. I the most likely sceario, which has moderate ecoomic growth but growig evirometal challeges, 11% of demad will ot be accommodated i.e. 2.3 millio flights per year would ot take place. I the most challegig sceario, which comprises strog ecoomic growth but with a icreased use of techology to partially mitigate the evirometal challeges, 25% of demad will be uaccommodated, i.e. 7.2 millio flights per year. From 2025 to 2030, uaccommodated demad will almost double ad cogestio will accelerate rapidly. Eve if the predicted situatio is less alarmig tha I the most likely sceario, 11% of demad will ot be accommodated i.e. 2.3 millio flights per year would ot take place. that outlied i Challeges to Growth 2004, the etwork as a whole will become subject to regular delays uless mitigatig actio is take. Mitigatio aalysis why? The mitigatio aalysis cotaied i the 2008 Challeges of Growth studies methods which users ad providers of the air traffic etwork might apply i order to alleviate the challeges facig airport capacity ad the etwork. A umber of differet optios for mitigatig airport capacity costraits were assessed i previous Challeges to Growth studies ad these optios were cosidered as a startig poit for our aalysis. The major challege of the curret study is to propose ad assess methods represetig a much closer aligmet with the real possibilities for actio which users ad providers will have i the future. I order to address this challege, the 2008 Mitigatio Aalysis ivolved a represetative pael of experts ad maagers of the airlie ad airport commuity three from the major airlies sector, two represetig low-cost airlies, oe from the busiess aviatio idustry ad three from airport operators (a total of ie) which allowed the modellig methodology to be adapted i order to take ito accout the distictive characteristics of the various operators. Skyway 50 - Witer

14 Focus Mitigatig the challeges ahead 1- Best-i-class airport ehacemets were extracted from SESAR Defiitio Phase 6 Task Deliverable TASK Milestoe 4 (Documet Number: DLT ). 2- Mitigatio method modelled by STATFOR Six methods Six methods were cosidered i the aalysis. Four of these, amely alterative aiports, schedule smoothig, high-speed trai ivestmet ad the use of larger aircraft, were specifically addressed by the expert pael. A further two, SESAR improvemets cosidered i isolatio as well as coupled with the icreased use of alterative airports were aalysed as optios for reducig the uaccommodated demad. Alterative airports This mitigatio method ivolves movig excess traffic either to a secodary airport (withi 45 m of a hub) or to a regioal airport (at a greater distace from the hub) depedig o the type of flight. Charter ad cargo flights are moved to regioal airports, while some low-cost flights ad some busiess aviatio flights are trasferred to secodary airports. The kock-o effects of this i terms of icreasig complexity of traffic flows e route were ot modelled. Withi this sceario, it was also cosidered that icreased use would be made of existig military airports. The method is efficiet, sice it would reduce uaccommodated demad by 25-40%, beig more effective i the most likely sceario. The impact of the method is limited by capacity costraits elsewhere i the etwork ad the willigess of passegers ad carriers to relocate. I additio, there may be adverse evirometal impacts if groud trasport is eeded for access to remote airports. SESAR improvemets Discussios with airlies ad airports have highlighted the importace of the SESAR programme, which will see the developmet ad implemetatio of ew techology, approaches ad procedures. The method assumed that with sufficiet ivestmet, each airport ca, if required, be brought to best-i-class performace; where best-i-class was based o performace per ruway cofiguratio of today, ad further icreased to represet SESAR improvemets 1. Together with sigificat ivestmet i capacity by airports, SESAR has the potetial to reduce uaccommodated demad by up to 40%. However, these capacity gais will require ivestmet which goes beyod that curretly reflected i Europea airports plas. Schedule smoothig This method ivolves movig flights to times of the day whe more capacity is available, eve if this might ot be the first choice of the passeger. The extet of the shift which was assessed varied betwee 30 miutes for some poit-to-poit flights (maily busiess demad) to three hours for some short- ad medium-haul hub flights. This mitigatio is likely to happe to some degree ayway, i respose to the trade-off betwee passeger demad profile durig the day ad makig the best use of aircraft, staff ad other resources. However, the method could be restricted locally by evirometal costraits related to oise abatemet. The gai with schedule smoothig is quite small sice uaccommodated demad could be reduced by less tha 10%, a figure which is somewhat lower tha may have bee cosidered to be the case i the past. The limit owadays is that i the most cogested case, there are oly a few quiet times whe shifted flights ca be absorbed. High-speed trai ivestmet 2 The 2030 traffic forecast already assumed that the Europea highspeed trai (HST) etwork will cotiue to develop. This mitigatio method assumes that a additioal large ivestmet may be made i extedig the HST etwork by a further 205 city pairs, focusig o replacig busy, short-rage airport pairs (more tha 10 flights/day ad less tha 400 km i air distace). Depedig o the HST travel time, a proportio of air passegers the shift to HSTs, a hypothesis which has already prove itself with the itroductio of ew HST services, Paris to Strasbourg to cite but oe. It appears that the HST etwork has a limited potetial for reducig cogestio. Shiftig short-haul flights to HSTs by extedig the HST etwork from 98 city-pairs to over 300 city-pairs reduced demad by a further millio flights. So it takes three times the coectios to double the reductio. Give the cost of buildig HST lies, this is ulikely to be justifiable i its ow right as a meas of reducig demad. SESAR improvemets ad alterative airports Combiig the two most effective methods i.e. exploitig the beefits of SESAR while usig alterative airports has the potetial to reduce by half the umber of uaccommodated flights, results varyig from 45% for the most challegig sceario to early 60% for the most likely oe. Use of larger aircraft The five methods assessed so far reduce the level of uaccommodated demad, which was expressed i terms of umbers of flights. The approach 14

15 Maximum potetial gais i reducig uaccommodated demad 60% 40% 20% proposed by this actio is differet isofar as the objective is to meet passeger demad by usig larger aircraft, while reducig the umber of flights through frequecy cappig. 0% Alterative airports SESAR improvemets Schedule smoothig High-speed trai ivestmet Mix of SESAR improvemets ad alterative airports This method is cosistet with the tred towards the use of larger aircraft already apparet i the market. We assessed the effect of itroducig the use of larger aircraft whe a cap of 15, 20 or 30 oe-way flights per day was applied to cogested airports. A limit imposed o traffic growth based exclusively o the daily flight frequecy, regardless of airport slots availability, could be perceived as detrimetal by the airspace user commuity. We therefore limited the traffic growth betwee airport pairs to airports cosidered to be cogested by the 2030 time horizo. As a result, this solutio is of limited value for the etwork as a whole. The followig assumptios were made regardig the icrease i aircraft size: A coservative step, which cosidered that log-haul flights could be replaced by the versio immediately above the curret oe withi the same category of aircraft. For istace, A (295 seats) are replaced by A ( seats). As a result, we assumed a icrease of 25% as the order of magitude for log-haul flights. Cocerig medium-haul flights, differet versios of the A320 family idicated a icrease i the umber of seats varyig from 15 to 22%, whilst the Boeig 737 family offered a icrease of 13 to 26%. It therefore seems appropriate to assume a icrease of 20% as the order of magitude for medium-haul flights. This step takes ito accout the iformatio provided by experts durig stakeholder discussios. A secod step, which augmeted the aircraft size eve further ad assumed a icrease of 40% for medium-haul flights ad 50% for log-haul oes. Medium-haul flights were replaced by the largest aircraft curretly available i the category of medium haul aircraft, amely A321s ad B ERs. A equivalet approach was used for log-haul flights. The coservative step has the potetial to recover half of the flights lost whe a cap of 30 oe-way flights per day is applied to cogested airports. If we icrease the aircraft size eve further (the secod step above), early all lost demad could be satisfied. Coclusios Six mitigatio methods were aalysed, each with a potetial for reducig the levels of uaccommodated demad at the 2030 time horizo. I the complete absece of such actio, the uaccommodated demad at 2030 is forecast to be 2.3 millio flights per year i the most likely sceario. Discussios with a umber of airlies ad airports allowed the modellig approach to be adapted i order to take ito accout the characteristics of the various operators. The results of the modellig exercise are summarised i the table above. Alterative airports ad SESAR improvemets appear to be the most effective methods sice they could brig up to 40% gais. Combiig their effects would provide eve better results, with gais of up to 60%. Schedule smoothig ad accelerated ivestmet i high-speed trai ifrastructure offer much less scope for reducig uaccommodated demad tha may have bee cosidered to be the case i the past. The use of larger aircraft is a slightly differet method isofar as the objective is to meet passeger demad while reducig the umber of flights. This method has the potetial to recover a major part of flights lost whe frequecy cappig is applied to cogested airports. More detailed iformatio ca be foud i the EEC Report No etitled Mitigatig agaist the Challeges for Air Trasport 2030, to be published i early Ackowledgemets The study would ot have bee possible without the ivolvemet of experts i the idustry who gave their time ad provided ivaluable iput for the specificatios of the mitigatio methods. Particular thaks go to Marc Dalichampt, Magda Gregorova, Hamid Kadour, Ala Marsde, David Marsh, Athoy Leggat, Elisabeth Petit, Fracis Richards ad also to Jea-Pierre Nicolao from ADV Systèmes. Skyway 50 - Witer

16 Focus What the experts have to say Nadie Pilo ad Lawrece Brom, experts at the EUROCONTROL Experimetal Cetre, explai the scope ad fidigs of a qualitative survey which complemets the 2008 Challeges of Growth study, reportig the views of leadig experts across the idustry o the log-term challeges (2030) i air trasport. Backgroud Sice the begiig of commercial air trasport, air traffic has bee growig at a steady aual rate of approximately 5%, ad eve worldwide crises such as the Gulf War ad 9/11 have slowed dow ad delayed growth oly by a few moths. That is why future air traffic growth is sometimes take for grated, especially by the idustry. Agecy, IATA, ACI Europe, the Air Traffic Alliace, Airbus, CANSO, IFATCA, ad also experts from airlies, research establishmets ad EUROCONTROL. The views of the experts were aalysed ad orgaised ito themes which make up the structure of the report fidigs. The survey does ot, however, represet the views of EUROCONTROL or of all the iterviewees. Future challeges The experts views o the future air trasport challeges were orgaised ito eleve themes fallig ito three mai areas: Air trasport demad: the mai driver behid air traffic growth will remai the icrease i demad for air travel, which seems set to cotiue. However, a umber of sigs are ow appearig, such as airport cogestio, the rise i oil prices ad cocer over global warmig, which challege the otio of growth i the future ad raise various questios. Are we reachig a level of air traffic maturity i Europe? Whe ad how will air traffic growth stabilise? What are the mai drivers behid the evolutio of air traffic? What are the risks ad how ca we reiforce the sustaiability of air trasport? What iflueces will prove critical i the future? These were questios which led to the preset survey. Methodology The Sigle Europea Sky The challege of defragmetatio The challege of ATM ivestmet costs Europea Parliamat Europea Commissio EUROCONTROL A Sigle Europea air trasport ifrastructure Goverace & liability Air trasport ifrastructure Log-term challeges i air trasport The survey was carried out betwee November 2007 ad April 2008 via aoymous iterviews with more tha 40 experts ad leaders from the air trasport idustry. These represeted airspace users, ifrastructure ad service providers, policy-makers, idustry ad regulators, as well as egieers, researchers ad frotlie operators, such as the Europea Commissio, the Europea Eviromet SESAR SESAR The ATM target cocept Stadardisatio SESAR maagemet SESAR implemetatio 16

17 However, the Europea ad global air trasport market will be affected by a umber of factors relatig to the ecoomy, the eviromet, security ad safety, the impact of which remais ucertai. Air trasport supply: i order to respod successfully to icreasig future demad, the air trasport actors will eed to be supported by a policy visio which provides for sufficiet capacity ad optimises the use of air trasport s scarce resources, while adaptig to the evolutio of their busiess models. Air trasport ifrastructure: buildig a sigle Europea air trasport ifrastructure (SES) will deped o the Air trasport demad Air trasport supply Demad for air travel Ecoomy ad air trasport Eviromet Security Safety Evolutio of busiess models Europea air trasport visio Scarce resources i air trasport establishmet of its goverace, i the particular cotext of States liability. I additio, the successful implemetatio of SESAR will deped o the fitess for purpose of the uderlyig cocepts ad o a umber of stadardisatio ad maagemet questios, whereas research will eed to cotiuously prepare for the future. Fidigs Leisure air travel Professioal mobility Freight Fuel price Europea aviatio i the global ecoomy Sustaiability Ticket price Political cosideratios ad societal evolutio Noise versus emissio, a techological ad political dilemma Techical ad operatioal cosideratios Ecoomic regulatio Dramatic evets ad effects o aviatio Security filterig at airports Security research ad developmet New treds i Europea short-haul air trasport Airlies Airports Aviatio maufacturers New airspace users Military users Global visio ad policy orietatio i Europe R&D priorities i the air trasport idustry Airport capacity TMA capacity Frequecies spectrum The survey provides reassurace that at a time whe air trasport growth is sometimes beig challeged, the tred i the log term will remai stable eve if the political ad ecoomic climate may affect growth rates. The mai factors likely to affect growth are fuel ad ticket prices, a growig evirometal awareess i society, ad evetual restrictios o the use of fossil fuel. Plaig for ad uderstadig future travel eeds are vital for future air trasport. The eed to moderise the air trasport ifrastructure through SESAR has bee reaffirmed. Success etails fidig workable solutios to Europea regulatio, liability ad sovereigty questios for a idustrial sector dealig with the safety ad security of citizes. It also requires a solutio to the problem of fiacig a large trasport ifrastructure servig multiple stakeholders. Fially, the air trasport ifrastructure will have to defragmet the ATM etwork ad, owig to the icreasig scarcity of its resources (slots, frequecies, etc.), move towards a etwork cogestio maagemet approach. The ew ATM cocepts will chage the role of huma operators i the system, requirig more research, effort ad iovative solutios durig the trasitio phase i order to address the questios of safety ad stadardisatio. Fuel ad ticket prices The icrease i fuel prices is a logterm tred which will profoudly restructure the air trasport market. It will reduce profit margis ad may affect the ecoomic sustaiability of the idustry. However, there is cofidece amog the experts that oil prices will ot be a show-stopper: air trasport ca probably afford expesive fuel, ad techological solutios based o alterative fuels will appear i time. Ticket prices are probably at the bottom of the curve. Log-term forecasts show that we ca still expect 2.5% growth per aum up to However, the impressive growth of less costraied emergig ecoomic regios is a challege for the Europea air trasport idustry. Skyway 50 - Witer

18 Focus What the experts have to say The eviromet Politically, there is a shared awareess that climate chage will dramatically modify our societies i the log term. Air trasport s image i public opiio has bee tarished owig to its perceived impact o the eviromet. The mai levy to reduce aviatio emissios will have the effect of reducig travel demad through taxes ad/or idividual emissios quotas. Aviatio s evirometal impact icludes oise pollutio i additio to gaseous emissios. There are hardly ay techical solutios which tackle both problems simultaeously. Trade-off decisios have to be made by all idustry actors. The potetially egative impact of ay drastic gree approach o the supply idustry is a matter for cocer. There is a eed for global agreemets o such measures i order to maitai fair competitio. Restrictios o the use of fossil fuel There will probably be political or fiacial restrictios o the use of fossil fuels. Society will eed alterative fuels ad egies to use them. I aeroautics, it takes five to te years to develop a product. This lead time is ofte uderestimated. The product has a 30- to 50-year life spa. Cosequetly, developig ew techology for 2020 is o loger the target. Idustry is callig for a loger-term visio, amely oe for the ext 50 years. IATA is challegig the idustry to build a zero-emissio aircraft i that timeframe. Security questios Dramatic evets have a detrimetal effect o the growth of air trasport, but security checks place a additioal burde o travel. Security questios requirig research ad developmet iclude crisis maagemet, filterig (with solutios such as the trusted passeger ), ad attack prevetio by meas of airport ad aircraft protectio techologies. Plaig ad uderstadig future travel eeds The air trasport world makes forecasts ad predictios but fails to uderstad the ifluecig factors. A improved uderstadig of these factors would help refie projectios ad better orietate ad arbitrate the whole developmet life-cycle from research to implemetatio. Sovereigty ad civil-military cooperatio Natioal borders are limitig seamless operatios i Europea air trasport. The Sigle Europea Sky iitiative is there to moderise Europea ATM. However, the EC has o jurisdictio over military matters. The populatio is ot ready to delegate sovereigty to Europe. There is o public outcry over the poor ATC performace. There are o votes to be wo by givig up airspace. Politicias eed crises i order to take difficult decisios about the sovereigty aspects raised i SES by fuctioal airspace blocks (FABs). The whole air trasport system eeds to become more flexible i order to efficietly hadle a rage of possible future scearios. Liability questios By 2025, multiple bilateral State agreemets to address the questio of sovereigty i FABs will probably have bee replaced by a geeral agreemet. Delegatio of airspace ivolves huma resposibility ad legal liability questios. At preset, procedures ad liability are based o terrestrial avigatio ifrastructures, but avigatio will icreasigly be based o satellites. Operatioally, the resposibility for separatio will icreasigly lie with the pilot (usig ASAS for example). I the very log term, States will free themselves etirely of ay liability for safety. Article 28 of the Chicago Covetio will eed to be chaged. The EC market-led ecoomic regulatio model The Europea Commuity s model of regulatio is market-led stadardisatio ad relies o the compaies ivolved. This model is imposed o ATM where safety is much more critical tha i other sectors. Applyig ecoomic efficiecy rules to safety does ot work. Regulated ecoomies eed strog States, i.e. oes which have competece, with legal ad techical powers, ad are able to resist powerful compaies ad lobbies. ATM requires a strog regulator with strog techical expertise, which defies the visio ad guidelies ad creates the market by stadardisatio ad certificatio (e.g. SESAR). Fiacig the air trasport system ifrastructure O the airspace users side, the costs of the ivestmet i ifrastructure (icludig SESAR) eed to be equitably shared betwee the users (hece the payers should be the beeficiaries). The military will icur eormous costs i order to achieve compliace with SESAR. Airlies will have to equip their fleets to fly i SESAR airspace. Eve for air avigatio service providers (ANSPs) ad States, the legacy systems will be very expesive to upgrade. New small aircraft, with o legacy, may be the vehicles to brig ew techology ito the system. Network defragmetatio Defragmetatio is a particularly thory issue i Europe. ANSPs are small busiesses which wat to stay alive. They are supported by the drive for autoomy ad sovereigty which will exist as log as Europe does ot have a itegrated 18

19 Europea defece system, ad this will probably ot emerge i the timeframe. Oe of the major challeges of defragmetatio is to clarify the roles of ANSPs, idustry, the istitutios ad EUROCONTROL. I a Europea ladscape govered by commo stadards ad a commo system architecture, it is importat to kow who is i charge of regulatio, specificatio, system costructio, ad certificatio, ad ultimately who is i charge of operatios ad operators. Scarcity maagemet Air trasport is movig from a situatio of ulimited resources (ruways, airspace, fuel, emissios, time, etc.) to oe of scarcity. The questio will o loger be how to icrease capacity i order to cope with demad, but icreasigly how to maage scarce resources. Airports, ruways, TMAs ad frequecies will be scarce resources for air trasport. The chagig role of the huma operators To meet the target objective of a three-fold icrease i traffic i the log term (2050), more automatio will be required ad the role of huma beigs i the system will have to be addressed agaist this backgroud. A umber of examples illustrate the beefits of automatio for sigificatly icreasig capacity. The operatig roles will be subject to radical chages. This will trigger resistace aimed at maitaiig the status quo, usig safety as a pretext. Safety of complex ATM systems Safety is a pre-requisite for air trasport. Society is icreasigly less tolerat of risk. I the cotext of the moderisatio of the ATM system based o humacetred automatio with the role of huma beigs beig redefied, maitaiig safety levels ivolves a umber of challeges (the risk of crimialisatio of professioals, resistace to ecoomic pressures, difficulty of esurig safety for a automated system of systems). Shortage of competet resources i the trasitio phase Chage will be slower tha expected. There are sigificat cultural ad operatioal maturity differeces withi Europe. Where maturity is low, basic problems will have to be resolved before sigificat advaces ca be made i the areas of huma performace, safety, ad security. Cotroller workig practices may costitute a problem for system developmet. I the huma performace area, there is a shortage of persoel to apply elaborate tools ad processes. I particular, there are isufficiet huma resources i the EU available for SES implemetatio i the trasitio phase (day-to-day operatios, R&D, traiig, certificatio, regulatio). Stadardisatio questios The US stadardisatio orgaisatios are stroger tha those i Europe, where we have a scattered model. This may favour US maufacturers. Stadards ca be used as protective measures as evideced i the past by the Japaese model. If Europea aviatio stadardisatio goals are for Europe oly, will ot be suitable. Several worldwide successes of EU aerospace stadards show that there is room for volutary actio ad iteratioal cooperatio o a agreed footig. The certificatio bodies face a double costrait. ICAO applies pressure for as few stadards as possible to be applied i order to facilitate applicability ad reduce maiteace costs. However, the systems to be certified are becomig more ad more complex. The developmet of stadards was the hobby-horse of the trade idustry. They did it for free. Now, they are becomig leaer ad are o loger prepared to devote resources to stadardisatio. It is ot clear whether the curret methods of orgaisig ad fiacig the stadardisatio process are effective eough to cover future eeds. Iovatio i ATM ATM has a very slow iovatio rate (15 years as compared with 3-7 years o the flight deck). Apart from the obvious problem of ageig techology, this also meas that techology available o the flight deck caot be exploited by the groud ifrastructure. Certificatio is a slow process ad must be accelerated. Some experts are disappoited with the rate of developmet i the SESAR defiitio phase (claimig that it is ot ambitious eough). SESAR has adopted the trajectory-based cocept without explorig other cocepts. For istace, separatio remais based o sectors. The challege is to satisfy the objectives of ecoomic, operatioal ad evirometal efficiecy. Coclusios There is a sigificat degree of ucertaity regardig the future air traffic growth. The whole system eeds to become more flexible i order to efficietly hadle a rage of possible future scearios. Airlies used to be very rigid, as did ATM. May airlies have ow maaged to make their costs much more variable, through leasig, outsourcig of o-core services, more flexible employmet coditios, etc. They are therefore more reactive to variatios i passeger ad freight demad, ad will ot hesitate to add, move or cut flights. Demad for air avigatio services will therefore be much more volatile i time ad space. I tur, these services must become more flexible i order to adapt better to the future. This should be oe of the key desig parameters of SESAR. Skyway 50 - Witer

20 Focus Stakeholder Forum Cooperative approach to likig efficiecy gais with the capacity challege As we come to the ed of a dramatic year for Europea aviatio, the eed for Europea airports to further ehace the performace of operatios ad maximise the use of their ifrastructure is ow more crucial tha ever. Olivier Jakovec, Director Geeral ACI EUROPE, explais A joit ACI EUROPE- EUROCONTROL Actio Pla o A-CDM has already bee lauched, with the ambitious target of gettig 40 airports egaged i the implemetatio of this iteractive iformatio ad data exchage process by the ed of O 28 October 2008, EUROCONTROL ad ACI EUROPE established a cooperatio agreemet o airport capacity With passeger ad freight demad fallig across may markets for the first time sice 2001/2002, airlies are beig hard hit o the reveue side. Improvemets which ca be made i groud operatios traslate ito efficiecy ad ofte savigs for them, ad this i tur ca potetially help airports reduce the risk of reductios i flights or route closure. These improvemets also traslate ito evirometal beefits, thus reducig the impact of airport operatios, especially i terms of emissios. Fially, they also place airports i a better positio to defed ecessary ifrastructure developmets, a very importat issue i the cotext of the airport capacity cruch which Europe cotiues to face i the medium term. These cosideratios have led ACI EUROPE to coclude a wideragig cooperatio agreemet with EUROCONTROL o airport capacity. This agreemet, which was siged o 28 October 2008 i Berli o the margis of ACI EUROPE s Airport Exchage coferece, is about idetifyig ad implemetig joit actio aimed at both optimisig existig capacity ad facilitatig the developmet of ew ifrastructure where it is eeded. The objective is to actively cotribute to better itegratio of airports ito the ATM etwork. I this respect, the cooperatio betwee ACI EUROPE ad EURCONTROL fits i perfectly with the re-lauched Sigle Europea Sky (SES II) ad SESAR, which are based o a total system approach ad a gate-to-gate cocept of operatios. ACI EUROPE has ejoyed excellet workig relatios with EUROCONTROL for some time ow. We have closely 20

21 ACI EUROPE ad EUROCONTROL joi forces followed the developmet of the Orgaisatio s Airport Operatios Programme (APR) sice its iceptio. This programme is ideed very importat for airports, as it is desiged to assist all stakeholders cocered with useful ad tested tools relatig to capacity aalysis, airport collaborative decisio-makig (A-CDM), surface movemet guidace ad cotrol, ad ruway safety. With this formalised agreemet, ACI EUROPE is lookig to take a more active role i the developmet of these activities ad facilitate their deploymet by the airport commuity. As a first step, a joit ACI EUROPE-EUROCONTROL Actio Pla o A-CDM has already bee lauched, with the ambitious target of gettig 40 airports egaged i the implemetatio of this iteractive iformatio ad data exchage process by the ed of The potetial beefits are real: based o the precedet of Muich Airport, where A-CDM is ow fully operatioal (curretly yieldig a 10% reductio i taxiig times ad a estimated 3.6 millio i cost savigs for the airport ad the airlies), our Actio Pla aims to achieve a reductio of more tha 400,000 tos i CO 2 emissios ad cost savigs of 100 millio, every year. earlier Costraits to Growth (2001) ad Challeges to Growth (2004) studies. Its ewly released Challeges of Growth study reveals that eve with coservative projectios of future growth i demad, Europe will still face a airport capacity cruch by 2030, resultig i 11% of demad left uaccommodated ad 170 millio passegers straded, ad those calculatios are based o the optimistic assumptio that airports will actually be i a positio to implemet all expasio plas curretly projected, resultig i a 41% icrease i capacity over the same period! This study is ideed timely ad is providig the basis upo which the ewly established EU Observatory o Airport Capacity will work to build ad maitai a up-to-date ivetory of the airport capacity i the Europea aviatio etwork. Olivier Jakovec, Director Geeral ACI EUROPE, said Our cooperatio is aimed at addressig crucial short-term ad log-term challeges for Europea aviatio. It is about improvig airport operatios to allow airlies to save moey, for example by reducig aircraft taxiig time o the groud. At the same time, it is about delayig cogestio as much as possible ad plaig for future developmets i the most effective way. He added: Ultimately, we all kow that optimisig existig airport capacity will ot be eough, ad the study released by EUROCONTROL souds a further warig about the eed for ew ifrastructure. David McMilla, Director Geeral EUROCONTROL, said decisio-makers eed reliable data from trustworthy sources so that they ca costruct their policies effectively. The ew Challeges of Growth study uderlies that regardless of the ecoomic situatio, the demad for air travel will be there. He added: We caot afford to let ourselves be stymied by capacity problems. The agreemet we siged with ACI EUROPE lays the foudatio for a improved partership with airports, a partership that will help us build the agile trasport system that ca deliver o citizes expectatios. I additio to these specific operatioal issues, from a strategic poit of view, ACI EUROPE is pressig for more visibility ad importace to be give to airport capacity i the cotext of SES II ad more geerally of the EU trasport policy. EUROCONTROL has played a uique role i gatherig data ad providig aalysis with its Skyway 50 - Witer

22 Focus Stakeholder Forum The future of atm i Europe Joh Halo, Secretary Geeral of the Europea Low Fares Airlie Associatio (ELFAA), looks at the future, idetifyig the Sigle Europea Sky II package ad SESAR as key eablers of the much-eeded reform of Europe s curret air traffic maagemet (ATM) system. The Europea Low Fares Airlie Associatio (ELFAA) represets the iterests of low-fare airlies i Europe, which curretly accout for over 35% of scheduled itra-eu traffic. Low-fare airlies are idisputably very sigificat stakeholders i the future of Europea airspace. The fact that low-fare airlies aircraft rarely leave Europea skies meas that iefficiecies i the ATM system impact them to the fullest possible extet. These iefficiecies sprig maily from the fragmetatio of ATM provisio from almost 40 idividual suppliers, all with separately-purchased ad maitaied capital equipmet. Coverig the vastly greater skies of the US, there is a sigle provider ad a third of area cotrol cetres. This structural flaw i the orgaisatio of the supposedly Sigle Europea Sky is compouded by idirect routeigs, which owe more to territorial lad borders tha to atural traffic flows i the skies overhead. Additioally airlies ad their customers were subjected to 21 millio miutes of avoidable flight delays i 2007 equivalet to efficiet operatios withi Europe of 70 aircraft for a full year! As a result of these iefficiecies, airlies icur a roughly 12% avoidable fuel bur ad 12% more emissios. A full costrecovery regime regardless of cost provides little icetive for improvemets i cost efficiecy, whereas ELFAA cosiders that the cost to airlies of ATM i Europea airspace could be reduced by 5 billio per aum. The case for radical reform is idisputable ad ELFAA looks forward with great expectatio to two key eablers of such reform the Sigle Europea Sky (SES) II legislative package ad SESAR. Amog its may vitally-required provisios, SES II madates the formatio of fuctioal airspace blocks (FABs), which are vital if we are to escape the root cause of the curret iefficiecies fragmetatio. Regrettably, however, the Commissio s proposal leaves it to the States to establish FABs, i.e., it follows the approach that has cosistetly failed over the last four years. Also it lacks ambitio i settig the deadlie for the formatio of FABs for 2012, whereas it should be possible to establish meaigful FABs by the ed of The Commissio s proposal also provides for performace bechmarkig of air avigatio service providers. Regulatio is, however, a poor proxy for competitio. Over time, ELFAA would like to see ATM service provisio opeed up to competitio, with the most efficiet providers free to expad their services, mirrorig the competitive market i which their customers, the airlies, operate. ELFAA strogly believes that SESAR has the potetial to deliver low-cost digital ATM that will facilitate the opeig of the ATM market to competitio. Oe of the overridig objectives of SESAR is to triple capacity, ad the iovative ad imagiative haressig of techological breakthroughs ca achieve this. If the equally-eeded reforms of SES II are subscribed to ad delivered by Member States, the structural bottleecks will become a thig of the past. ELFAA agrees that too much focus has bee placed o lookig back at how we got here. It is high time to look to where we eed to get ad ca get. ELFAA therefore urges the Europea Parliamet ad the Coucil to adopt, withi the curret term of the Parliamet, the SES II legislative package, ad to actively support the SESAR project. For its part, ELFAA is committed to cotiuig to play its part i SESAR as it progresses through the developmet phase. 22

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24 Iterview Skyway talks to Fraçois Queti Co-Chairma ACARE Fraçois Queti was appoited i May 2004 as Thales Seior Vice Presidet i charge of aerospace activities ad member of the Thales Executive Committee. Prior to that he had bee appoited Chief Executive Officer of Thales Avioics i 2000 ad Seior Vice Presidet, Avioics Systems i Fraçois Queti joied Thomso-CSF i 1977 (reamed Thales i 2000), holdig a series of positios as egieer ad project maager for commuicatios ad commad systems. From 1989 to 1992 he headed up the fixed commuicatio etworks busiess uit. He was Chairma ad CEO of Auxilec, a subsidiary of Thomso-CSF, from 1992 to 1999, whe he was appoited Seior Executive Vice Presidet of Sextat (ow called Thales Avioics). He is a member of the followig: GIFAS (Frech Aerospace Idustry Associatio), ASD (Aerospace ad Defece, Idustries Associatio of Europe) He is also Special Advisor to the Frech Trasport Miistry for the creatio of CORAC (Coseil pour la Recherche Aéroautique Civile) ad Co-Chairma of ACARE (Advisory Coucil for Aeroautics Research i Europe). Could you please remid Skyway readers of the primary role ad tasks of ACARE? ACARE stads for Advisory Coucil for Aeroautics Research i Europe ad is a aerospace techology-focused platform. Its members are all Europea stakeholders i the fields of aeroautics ad air trasport: idustry players, research cetres, academia, airports, airlies, regulators, the Europea Commissio ad Member States. ACARE was fouded i 2000 by a group of persoalities uder the leadership of Europea Commissioer Philippe Busqui, iitially resultig i what was termed the 2020 visio. This, i tur, led to a Strategic Research Ageda broke dow ito five High-Level Target Cocepts: Cost-Efficiecy, Time Efficiecy, Highly Customer-orieted, Security, Gree Air Trasport ad, more widely, the 22d Cetury. Work is curretly i progress o a revised Strategic Research Ageda with a timeframe that stretches beyod 2020 to 2040 ad ACARE s ultimate objective is to defie a mid- to log-term aeroautical research ageda, which is the rolled out i a coordiated, harmoised maer by its members. The deliverables are aimed at maitaiig the competitiveess of the Europea aerospace idustry ad meetig the eeds of society at large. ACARE s priorities are based o both a busiess perspective ad how to meet the requiremets of the market. Specific iitiatives have bee created to deal with the cocrete ad permaet issues of each objective, such as the SESAR (Sigle Europea Sky ATM Research) Programme for Time Efficiecy aspects (improved efficiecy withi airspace) ad the Clea Sky Joit Techology Iitiative for more evirometally-orieted projects (developmet of techologies to provide cleaer aircraft). Both SESAR ad Clea Sky are very much uderway ad have rapidly become part of the aeroautical ladscape. Both have bee grated sigificat budgets i lie with recommedatios formulated as part of ACARE s Strategic Research Ageda. This pays testimoy to the credibility ad ifluece of ACARE actios. Aother example of ACARE iitiatig a chage is the deploymet of Europe s Seveth Framework Programme, which is totally i aligmet with the ACARE ageda. Iteratioal cooperatio, aother key aspect of ACARE, is also gaiig pace, as coordiated work is takig shape with key strategic coutries icludig Russia, Idia ad Chia. Fially, oe of ACARE s iitial objectives was also to obtai more research for 24

25 our moey. This has bee achieved, as the icreased levels of coordiatio have made for less duplicatio, more cosistecy, greater scope ad fewer gaps i the R&T activities of our stakeholders. What are the mai challeges facig Europe s air trasport system i terms of accommodatig the expected traffic growth ad doig so i a sustaiable maer? How will research help to address these challeges? Despite the curret ecoomic slowdow which the air trasport idustry is today facig, we are still expectig, i the log term, to see stable growth over the ext twety years. The mai challeges that we have to meet i accommodatig this growth will be i terms both of evirometal ad safety issues. The air trasport system will have to evolve from what it is today: from a juxtapositio of diverse systems towards a system-of-systems approach. ACARE has always adopted a strategic, global approach to aeroautical R&T, cosiderig the whole air trasport fuctio as a itegrated system, a kid of gate-to-gate approach i which all systems are seamless, iterdepedet ad iteroperable. This system of systems approach is the oe that we will cotiue to take i order to meet the challeges of the future: air traffic cotrol cocepts will be fouded o gate-togate trajectories ad the etworkig ad iteroperability of oboard ad groud systems will be essetial. Perhaps we could look more specifically at what is set to be achieved withi the framework of Clea Sky, the largest Europea research project ever. I essece, it will help to meet the 2020 evirometal goals set by ACARE (Advisory Coucil for Aeroautics Research i Europe) of a 50% reductio i CO 2 emissios, a 80% reductio i NOx (itroge oxides) emissios, a 50% reductio i exteral perceived oise ad a gree product life cycle (these reductios use 2000 as the baselie). ACARE s 2020 evirometal goals: a 50% reductio i CO 2 emissios; a 80% reductio i NOx emissios; a 50% reductio i exteral perceived oise ad a gree product life cycle. The Clea Sky iitiative has bee built aroud six techology areas kow as Itegrated Techology Demostrators (ITDs). Compaies ivolved with Clea Sky will desig, build ad test techological solutios to help idustry develop iovative, more evirometally friedly aviatio systems. Oe such ITD is the Systems for Gree Operatios ITD, where we address two differet sets of systems i differet ad complemetary ways: the systems related to the maagemet of trajectory ad missio; the electrical systems oboard the aircraft. This meas fidig ways to maage aircraft eergy ad aircraft trajectory ad missio so as to help achieve evirometal objectives such as: Efficiet aircraft trajectories (groud ad air). Approach optimisatio (Cotiuous Descet Arrival 10% less fuel, 40% less oise ). Optimisatio of gates ad ruways. Global iteroperability. By maagig both eergy ad trajectory, it is possible to cut dow the level of fuel required by a aircraft to complete a give missio ad therefore reduce waste, while at the same time providig for aircraft flexibility. For electrical systems, the core of the issue lies withi the redesig of the whole chai of geeratio, distributio, maagemet ad cosumptio of electrical eergy o board the aircraft, to improve its overall efficiecy. The uderlyig cocept is the all-electrical aircraft, i which everythig (or hydraulic ad peumatic devices) would be replaced by electrical systems. The pricipal goal beig to reduce overall fuel cosumptio by makig efficiet use of the eergy produced ad cosumed oboard the aircraft. We also have a set of evaluatio tools at a Europea level, which will eable us to assess ad evaluate the evirometal impact of the techologies created withi each ITD. The Techology Evaluator occupies a cetral positio withi Clea Sky ad holds a budget of $31 millio, 2% of the overall Clea Sky budget. Made up of 17 members, the Techology Evaluator icludes represetatives from the 12 ITD leaders i addi- Skyway 50 - Witer

26 Iterview Skyway talks to Fraçois Queti, Co-Chairma ACARE tio to uiversities ad members of the research commuity from across Europe. It will carry out the vital role of aalysig ad evaluatig the desig results of each ITD before usig them to simulate the cocept of what the air trasport system could become usig traffic growth ad route forecasts from 2020 ad beyod. Some of the work that we are pursuig withi Clea Sky builds o a systemsorieted approach which Thales itself had iitiated withi its ow Airlab techicaloperatioal laboratory i Toulouse. Airlab aims to develop techical ad operatioal simulatio eviromets for civil air trasport based aroud the seamless iteroperability of systems both o the groud ad i the air: it offers a collaborative eviromet i which the key players i the air trasport sector betwee groud ad air ca iteract effectively from departure to arrival gate takig ito accout all the steps ad actors i betwee. What should be the key priorities of Europea research i the years to come? ACARE deliverables are aimed at maitaiig the competitiveess of the Europea aerospace idustry ad meetig the eeds of society at large: these should be regarded as research priorities for the sector i Europe. Breakig these dow, they ivolve: Keepig the eeds ad expectatios of citizes the ed-users as our primary cosideratio. Maitaiig Europea leadership across the diverse fields of aeroautics. Cotiuig to improve our levels of competitiveess. Moitorig the global supply chai. Takig Europea jobs ito cosideratio. ACARE has idetified three key, stad-out drivers to better target these priorities. The first is educatio, because we eed highly-skilled, educated people to make all these cocepts a reality ad we eed to attract the youger geeratios to our sector. The secod is idetifyig areas for upstream research i order to create breakthrough opportuities for the years to come; ad the third is of course, fuel cosumptio ad emissio cotrol fudametal areas i which we aim to do ever better. This all has to be uderpied by the otio of itermodality, makig the air trasport system the global, seamless system of systems I referred to earlier, itercoected to other trasport systems such as trais. How does SESAR cotribute to ACARE s log-term objectives? SESAR, like Clea Sky, will cotribute to the achievemet of the ACARE 2020 objectives ad will develop solutios for several of ACARE s High-Level Target Cocepts, particularly: Gree Air Trasport Highly Customer-Orieted Time Efficiecy SESAR, agai like Clea Sky, represets a host of techology studies aimed at idetifyig ad developig the solutios capable of makig the air trasport ACARE deliverables are aimed at maitaiig the competitiveess of the Europea aerospace idustry ad meetig the eeds of society at large. system more efficiet ad evirometally friedly. SESAR will develop a Europea operatioal cocept of operatio, makig optimum use of the performace of aircraft families flyig i It will prepare ad execute the deploymet of this cocept i several steps. SESAR itegrates the groud ad airbore dimesios. Beyod the reductio of the evirometal impact of ATM, SESAR also addresses several performace requiremets of the air trasport system (e.g. capacity, cost, time efficiecy, etc.). Meawhile, Clea Sky is focussig o o-board solutios, ad goes far beyod what could strictly be termed as ATM applicatios (e.g. eergy systems, eco-desig ), but aturally there is a great deal of coordiatio betwee the two projects: the most promiet iterfaces betwee SESAR ad Clea Sky are withi the Systems for Gree Operatios/Maagemet of Trajectory ad Missio Itegrated Techology Demostrator ad i the cetral Techology Evaluator. 26

27 Idepedet Platform Log-term solutios to log-term challeges Aviatio jouralist Simo Michell looks at what ca be doe to esure that the level of traffic demad expected i Europe by 2030 is catered for withi the air traffic etwork. I the summer of 2007 the majority of forecasts for the global ecoomy looked very optimistic. Suddely, however, the rumblig US sub-prime market debacle hit Europe, causig a series of bak failures across the cotiet. The oil price rocketed to $147 dollars a barrel, ad several Europea airlies, strugglig with their bottom lies, quickly foud themselves uable to stay i busiess. A year o, the situatio could ot be more differet. Germay has officially accepted that it is i recessio ad the Uited Kigdom will soo follow suit. Busiesses are sheddig jobs at a alarmig rate ad disposable icomes have come uder eormous pressure, especially i those Europea coutries most heavily hit by the crisis i the property market. Air traffic growth treds have subsequetly had to be revised dow as the reletless rise i passeger umbers has come to a sudde stop. Perhaps there could ot have bee a more cofusig time to brig out a report o Europea aviatio growth, but as the ew 2008 Challeges of Growth study poits out, The slowig of demad growth durig the turbulece of 2008 ad the likely ecoomic ad busiess difficulties of 2009 may buy a few extra years to respod, but this will ot allow the air trasport idustry to escape the five mai challeges i the loger term. The report s authors take this oe step further by sayig that this is precisely the right time to brig out such a report, as a thorough aalysis of its fidigs will allow the idustry to take stock. After all, it says a forecast is all about givig structure to ucertaity. Log-term challeges The five mai log-term challeges idetified i the study give a clear idicatio of just how complex the problems are. They hige aroud a set of itercoected pressure poits over which o sigle orgaisatio has cotrol. EUROCONTROL s David Marsh, who led the study, accepts that the challeges are sigificat, but isists that they are surmoutable. They are: airport capacity; sustaiability; cogestio; istitutioal ad social chage; climate chage. After ivestigatig a series of growth scearios ragig from strog to fragmeted growth the report highlights a forecast which assumes that, by 2030, there will be betwee 1.7 ad 2.2 times the umber of flights i Europe see i I the most likely sceario, 2030 traffic is 1.8 times greater, but demad is 2.3 millio flights higher tha that. Put i a differet way, 11% of flights which would like to take place will ot be able to, at least ot from the airport ad at the time they would prefer. These flights are referred to as uaccommodated. This additioal umber of flights will be accompaied by growig evirometal pressures which will be supported by ever closer regulatio as a respose to reduced tolerace of air traffic evirometal effects, both at the global level with regard to emissios, ad more specifically at local level, where residets aroud airports are becomig less tolerat of oise ad pollutio. Although airports ad aviatio brig wealth, it seems there is a paradox: the greater the wealth, the lower the level of tolerace of the icoveiece which produces it. Implemetig solutios The solutios to these challeges are achievable but require a huge amout of work, ad are ot ecessarily guarateed to solve the problem completely. Nor are they without their ow dilemmas ad iad- Skyway 50 - Witer

28 Focus Idepedet Platform Log-term solutios to log-term challeges equacies. The five solutios studied i the report are: schedule smoothig, alterative airports, larger aircraft, high-speed trais ad exploitig the beefits of SESAR. To echo the report, Good decisios require good data ad EUROCONTROL has beefited greatly from its collaboratio with the Airports Coucil Iteratioal (ACI). This close cooperatio has provided developmet plas for 138 Europea airports. These show that progress is beig made. If everythig goes to pla, by 2030, airport capacity will be expaded by 41% as a result of the itroductio of a umber of ew airports, 29 ew ruways ad extesive work at other airports o the air- ad groud-side ifrastructure. This is, of course, welcome ews, but by 2030 it is very likely that as may as 19 airports i Europe will be operatig at full capacity. Marsh poits out that this will have a very uwelcome effect o large portios of the etwork. Although smoothig the schedules by maagig slot allocatios meas that a gridlock situatio ca always be avoided, if this may airports are maxed out the slightest icidet could have disproportioate results. Aircraft which suffer a techical fault i the morig, for example, will ot be able to take advatage of the luch-time dip i maoeuvres to make their departure, because there will ot be oe. As Marsh puts it, uder these cogested coditios, we ca expect much greater delay ad may more cacellatios. The etwork will be so heavily lade with traffic that it will be almost impossible to recover from eve the smallest icidets. Furthermore, passegers may resist attempts to schedule their flights at icoveiet times, such as very early morig or late eveig. Likewise, the use of alterative airports may ot suit everybody. Although the low-cost airlies have bee promiet pioeers of this strategy, there is some tagible evidece of a growig reluctace to accept flights to airports may miles from oe s fial destiatio. Where the groud ifrastructure of affordable trasport, such as trais ad buses, is lackig, these airports do ot always represet a acceptable alterative uless the airlie ticket price makes it a eticig optio. Aother cosideratio is the additioal evirometal effect which the eed for supplemetary trasport o this scale might have. Whilst solvig the capacity challege, it may have a egative effect o evirometal sustaiability questios. By 2030 it is very likely that as may as 19 airports i Europe will be operatig at full capacity. High-speed trais (HST) have maaged to divert some domestic traffic, but as the report suggests, this is goig to be a focused rather tha a broad-brush solutio. The extet of ifrastructure ivestmet required to take a sigificat amout of the traffic appears to be ecoomically usoud. Larger aircraft, i the form of the Airbus A380, ca however make a sigificat differece to cogestio where the airports are able to operate them. That said, the itroductio of these larger aircraft poits to the eed for all parts of the etwork to prepare for the arrival of ew techology ad platforms simultaeously or risk havig the additioal costs required to solve the wake vortex issue which the A380 brought with it. The Sigle Europea Sky ad its ATM Research programme, SESAR, represet the other most effective way to address these challeges, alog with airport expasio. The report shows that SESAR at airports, together with ivestmet to brig each airport to the performace of the best i class, has the potetial to icrease airport capacity by a sigificat margi. If all the ivestmet required is made, it will be able to reduce uaccommodated demad by as much as 40%. Patrick Ky, Executive Director of the SESAR Joit Udertakig, accepts that the log-term-challeges preset serious obstacles ad, i his words, Solvig them completely may be a little ambitious. He goes o though to reveal how some of the mitigatio cocepts beig ivestigated, are based aroud very simple ideas. For example, wake vortex separatio miima are uiformly imposed o aircraft regardless of whether a threat exists or ot. SESAR is therefore developig systems which will establish the existece ad extet of the threat, based o the prevailig coditios wid, temperature ad pressure at the airport. This will allow the distace betwee aircraft to be decreased whe the threat is low ad icreased whe it is high. Other airport capacity ehacemet strategies are cetred o carefully maagig the traffic comig ito lad ad preparig to take-off. Queue maagemet ad sequecig are ot ew, but Ky explais that SESAR iteds to take curret cocepts, such as Collaborative Decisio Makig (CDM) a step further. If everybody ivolved has exceptioally up-to- 28

29 date ad accurate data, certai tactical steps ca be take i advace of aircraft arrival ad departures. Aircraft flyig ito cogested airports like Heathrow ca have their speed over the Atlatic Ocea tailored so that istead of havig to go ito a holdig patter over the airport eviros, they ca seamlessly joi their ladig queue without ay alteratio to their routes. At the other ed of the cycle, if everybody kows exactly whe aircraft are expected, gate cogestio i other words aircraft hagig aroud waitig for their tur to empty their passegers ito the airport ca also be miimised. Aircraft which are blockig the arrival of others ca leave their gate oce all their cargo ad passegers have bee loaded ad go off to a special parkig area where they ca wait with their egies switched off for their tur to take-off. A more futuristic ATM cocept is also beig ivestigated for smaller airports. Ky reveals that SESAR iteds to test ad evaluate ew techology, which will eable the remote provisio of air traffic cotrol services for small airports. This, he says, will result i sigificat ecoomic gais for air avigatio service providers who will be able to cocetrate their staff i a sigle facility whilst providig ATM services for multiple airports. The risks cally ivisible. He says it should deliver a product much like today s mobile phoe service works for the majority of customers, i a seamless ad uiterrupted maer. The vast ifrastructures which make these GSM phoes work is take for grated util those relatively rare occasios whe the service is lost. However, achievig a similar stadard for aviatio relies o two factors which are largely beyod the cotrol ot just of air idustry stakeholders but of ma i geeral climate chage ad istitutioal ad social chage. Climate chage is ow almost uiversally accepted as ievitable, although its causes are still beig debated. As the ice cotiues to melt ad water streams off the lad masses which had hitherto kept it from the sea, water levels will rise. How much, though, is ucertai, but with a substatial umber of airports situated alog the coastlies ad o flood plais, the disruptio this may cause to these airports is still beig assessed. It remais to be see what the effect will be o these airports ad how much if ay capacity will be lost. Aother ukow factor is the extet to which seasoal traffic will chage. As weather patters alter, what will happe to the aual skiig seaso, ad will some holiday destiatios become too harsh for the tourists more used to the orth Europea climate? Timescales are aother risk. It is ever absolutely clear how log it will take Marsh outlies his visio of the future for the air traffic system where a performace-drive etwork operates so smoothly that its presece is practito pass all the ecessary legislatio which supports projects like the SES programme. Marsh poitedly explais that legislatio is a reflectio of thigs which are ot yet happeig but eed to. The secod SES legislative package was required because, although much of the required actio had bee take, some still has ot. However, atioal parliamets have their ow schedules. They reflect their idividual priorities, but as Marsh says, chagig their airspace may ot be oe of them. With 38 separate Member States i EUROCONTROL ad 27 Europea Uio members these thigs take time. It also takes time to deal with the social implicatios of chage. The employees withi aviatio eed to buy ito the ew visio for Europe s air idustry. They eed to be persuaded that the chages affectig them are first of all ecessary ad secodly acceptable. Much has bee said about keepig the huma i the loop, but what will happe if air traffic cotrollers (ATCOs) decide that they are uwillig to go alog with the ew workig eviromets ad practices heavily reliat as they will be o automatio? Likewise, the additioal resposibilities destied for flight deck crews may also ot be acceptable to all. How willig will pilots be to take o additioal resposibility from the ATCOs for keepig their aircraft at safe distaces from those aroud them? Society, too, is becomig less tolerat of the air idustry ad expasio plas for airports ad flight movemets are becomig harder to implemet. That said, Marsh is positive that these challeges are surmoutable it is, he isists, mostly a questio of timescales! Skyway 50 - Witer

30 Focus Review Albaia Mr Adriatik Kokoa, Stakeholder Implemetatio Service Project Maager at EUROCONTROL, explais how the Agecy has bee supportig the moderisatio of Albaia s air traffic maagemet system. 1- Short Term Coflict Alert 2- Miimum Safe Altitude Warig 3- Area Proximity Warig Date: 25 September Time: 0906 UTC Locatio: Tiraa ACC, Albaia Aircraft trasmissio. Tiraa Radar, Alitalia 582 passig FL190 descedig FL110 direct PAPIZ. ATC trasmissio. Alitalia 582 Tiraa Radar, idetified. Expect radar vectors to the VOR/DME fial approach ruway 36. Just a routie radio-telephoy exchage of iformatio betwee a arrivig aircraft ad a approach cotrol uit? No, ot i this case. The air traffic cotroller was Mr Bledi Jai, Head of ATC Traiig for NATA, the Natioal Air Traffic Agecy of Albaia, ad his trasmissio to Alitalia 582 marked the culmiatio of a project which commeced i December 2006 whe EUROCONTROL received a request from NATA to assist them i implemetig approach surveillace cotrol services. EUROCONTROL s support The EUROCONTROL Agecy maages requests for support through special agreemets. These are cotracts betwee EUROCONTROL ad the States cocered, detailig the scope, timescale, deliverables ad, where appropriate, the cost to the State for the EUROCONTROL persoel effort ad missio costs required to achieve the objectives stated withi the agreemet. For the project i support of NATA, the work packages icluded airspace ad procedure desig, radar system procuremet ad SASS evaluatio, system safety ad the ATC uit safety case, ATC traiig advice ad ATC operatioal procedures. NATA experts were closely ivolved i every work package ad, through a trasfer of kowledge, were able to accomplish much of the work themselves. For example, NATA were able to produce with EUROCONTROL s guidace the system ad ATC uit safety cases. NATA ow have the kowledge to update the safety cases with miimal assistace from EUROCONTROL should system or procedure chages be itroduced i the future. Aother example is ATC traiig. EUROCONTROL together with the assistace of NATA cotrollers developed the ATC course objectives ad draft approach surveillace cotrol ATC operatig procedures. These were the basis of the approach surveillace cotrol refresher courses which a core team of experieced cotrollers udertook earlier i 2008 ad which ow form a major part of the approach cotrol ATC operatig procedures. EUROCONTROL facilitated the trasfer of kowledge ad expertise. It was, however, the NATA cotrollers who traied ad developed their skills ad kowledge i order to be fully prepared to commece approach surveillace operatios. Of course, i today s regulated ATM world a ew ATC service caot be created overight. Evidece has to be preseted to prove that the system is ot just safe today, but it will be safe tomorrow ad throughout its life cycle. The NATA cotrollers ad techical staff worked hard to produce this evidece, which was reviewed ad edorsed by NATA maagemet before beig set to the atioal regulator. Approval for operatio was duly received ad approach surveillace cotrol operatios commeced as plaed o 25 September Tiraa approach surveillace cotrol provides a ATC service to arrivig ad departig flights operatig withi the Tiraa TMA ad CTR ad to overflights operatig below FL195. EUROCONTROL was there to support iitial operatios. It became quickly apparet that the system (equipmet, procedures ad staff) performed very well. The service provided (ad the future fuctioality of safety ets, e.g. STCA 1, MSAW 2 ad APW 3 ) will have a very positive effect o flight safety ad capacity at 30

31 a airport where high terrai has such a impact o operatios. I left Tiraa o 2 October. There were thuderclouds i all sectors aroud the airport with active thuderstorms to the south-east ad south-west of the airport. Just before I left the operatios room, approach was maagig four coflictig arrivals (all estimatig arrival at the airport at the same time) ad two departures. Despite requested deviatios to avoid weather, the cotroller maaged to desced ad vector the arrivals i a perfect sequece. Oe pilot, after ladig, was asked for his commet regardig the ew approach service. Ah, much better was his reply. The CISNA project The provisio of support by EUROCONTROL to Albaia is ogoig. Ideed, the Agecy ad NATA have recetly siged a ew Special Agreemet to support the CISNA (Certificatio, Ifrastructure ad Safety Support) project, which commeced i Jue 2008 ad eds i December The project will provide support to NATA to facilitate certificatio, chages to their ifrastructure, safety support for the ew ATC facility ad systems ad a comprehesive security system ecompassig the buildig, systems ad procedures. This is especially importat as the Europea Commo Aviatio Area Agreemet has bee ratified by the Albaia Parliamet ad cosequetly all SES regulatios ad directives are to be fully applied i Albaia. Further EUROCONTROL activities liked to the CISNA project are a review of the NATA strategic busiess pla, developmet of a ew ATM/CNS strategy ad support for the accreditatio of the NATA quality maagemet system as ISO FAB iitiative Albaia has joied the BLU-MED fuctioal airspace block (FAB) iitiative ad is workig with adjacet States icludig Italy, Malta, Greece ad Cyprus to establish a FAB i the regio. I order to comply with the requiremets derived from SES ad FAB iitiatives, NATA has developed a comprehesive pla to achieve the goal of certificatio by the Albaia NSA 4 by the ed of Improved collaboratio with the CFMU Albaia has also made sigificat progress i achievig the ECIP Objective FCM03 relatig to the collaboratio betwee the Cetral Flow Maagemet Uit (CFMU), airports ad airspace users. First System Activatio (FSA) messages have bee set to the CFMU sice November By the ed of 2008, Albaia will be able to provide the CFMU with updated flight pla iformatio, icludig the chage of aircraft equipmet ad diversio by meas of a AFP message (ATC flight pla proposal). The other AFP messages have already bee implemeted. I additio, by sprig 2009, Albaia will be able to provide correlated positio data (CPR) to the CFMU. The provisio of real-time aircraft positio data will greatly assist the CFMU i adjustig flow regulatio. Security maagemet system EUROCONTROL will also assist NATA i the developmet ad establishmet of a security maagemet system. The future From left, Mr Bledi Jai, Head of ATC Traiig, NATA, ad Gjergii Bozo, Seior OJTI, NATA Fially, a ew facility comprisig a colocated area ad approach cotrol buildig ad adjacet aerodrome cotrol tower with ew ATM equipmet fully compliat with both EURO- CONTROL ad SES requiremets is plaed to be costructed ad fully operatioalby the ed of Natioal Supervisory Authority Skyway 50 - Witer

32 Datelies Aviatio & Eviromet Summit November 2008 Bordeaux, Frace The successive presidecies of the Europea Uio regularly orgaise a Europea Aviatio Summit. O November 2008 the Frech presidecy orgaised a Aviatio ad Eviromet Summit. The evet brought together the mai air trasport stakeholders, amely political ad regulatory authorities (the Europea Commissio, States ad parliametary represetatives), idustry represetatives (costructors, parts maufacturers), airlies, aeroautical associatios, iteratioal orgaisatios, etc. The Summit provided a forum for a exchage of views o two topical issues the Sigle Europea Sky ad the eviromet. There were three major developmets i the first of these two areas: a collective message from the various air trasport parters, recogisig the eed to validate the secod Sigle Europea Sky package as proposed by the Europea Commissio; sigature of the agreemet o the Clea Sky research ad developmet iitiative; sigature of the Declaratio of Itet to create a Fuctioal Airspace Block Europe Cetral (FABEC) by six Member States (Germay, Belgium, Frace, Luxembourg, the Netherlads ad Switzerlad) ad their associated air avigatio service providers (ANSPs). Two fudametal messages were discussed regardig the secod area (eviromet): the eagerly awaited speech by JC Spietta o EU/ETS, which cofirmed that the scheme would have to be equitable, progressive ad global to allow air trasport to cotiue to ivest i ew fleets of more ecoomical, quieter ad cleaer aircraft. Durig the Summit, there were presetatios ad roud-table discussios o the followig three themes: is research the key to the sustaiable developmet of air trasport? the expected beefits of moderisig air traffic maagemet (the secod Sigle Europea Sky package, its associated R&D aspects, fuctioal airspace blocks); operatioal ad fiacial regulatory measures (EU/ETS). Mr Domiique Bussereau, Secretary of State for Trasport, i his cocludig address to the Summit, ackowledged that air trasport was goig through a difficult period o accout of the high fuel costs, the weakess of the dollar agaist the euro ad the global credit cruch. cofirmatio by all the parties cocered that the arragemets i the Aviatio ad EU/ETS agreemet of July 2008 betwee the Europea Parliamet ad the Coucil should remai the same i the geeral EU/ ETS Directive curretly beig discussed. With regard to the Sigle Sky, he idicated that the Frech presidecy wated to make fast progress with the expected adoptio o 8 December 2008 by the Coucil of a commo positio o the secod package ad the fialisatio of a 2009 roadmap for the extesio of EASA s powers to airport security ad air trasport maagemet. As far as the itegratio of aviatio ito the EU/ETS was cocered, the Miister felt that the agreemet reached i July 2008 was a reasoable oe. 32

33 eurocotrol pioeers ext-geeratio of iteroperable Flight Data Processig System Update O 15 December 2008, EUROCONTROL s Maastricht Upper Area Cotrol Cetre implemeted a ext-geeratio iteroperable Flight Data Processig System (FDPS) to maage oe of Europe s busiest ad most complex airspaces, located above the Beelux ad North-West Germay. Delivered by Spaish systems provider Idra Sistemas S.A, the system supports both civil ad military operatios ad provides a set of leadig-edge tools to hadle future traffic growth i a safer, more expeditious ad evirometally efficiet maer. Our ability to meet the challeges facig the air trasport idustry is closely liked with the implemetatio of ew techologies, which must be harmoised ad fully iteroperable. The ew Flight Data Processig System at Maastricht provides a excellet techology base for effective tras-atioal air avigatio services, a key elemet i the Sigle Europea Sky, said David McMilla, Director Geeral of EUROCONTROL. It will cotribute to meetig the objectives for a less fragmeted, ad more performace-drive air traffic maagemet system, i lie with the log-term objectives of SESAR, Europe s ifrastructure moderisatio programme. The ew system ideed complies with the Sigle Europea Sky regulatio o the iteroperability of the Europea ATM etwork (EC) No. 552/2004 ad the applicable implemetig rules. Developed i lie with Europea Flight Data Processig (efdp) specificatios, it is a fudametal step towards the Sigle Europea Sky s objective to reduce the fragmetatio of air traffic cotrol systems, still prevailig i today s Europe, by icreasig the iteroperability betwee these systems. I additio to supportig the provisio of effective air avigatio services, the ew FDPS s advaced features will also shape a uique platform that is capable to support the pre-operatioal evaluatio ad validatio of future cocepts i support of the SESAR developmet phase, i or close to a real operatioal eviromet. The New Flight Data Processig System at Maastricht is a trajectory-based system, as opposed to the classical route-based systems used util ow. A trajectory is ow cotiuously updated by the flight behaviour (give by radar data ad iputs from the cotroller) whereas i a route-based system the Flight Pla Route would remai quasi-static i the system. Buildig further o the effective civil-military cooperatio already i place i the area, trajectory data is also provided i real time to the military cotrollers who hadle military traffic i Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlads ad Germay. Icreased system flexibility will improve performace by keepig flight delays low. With the ew system, the airspace is maaged more flexibly, which meas that flight areas ca be easily re-shaped, dyamically respodig to chages i traffic demad, specific weather coditios or areas reserved for military operatios. Coordiatio betwee ATC sectors or cetres requires less telephoic actio as most of the coordiatio processes are assisted through electroic coordiatio. This is doe for iteral coordiatio, ad for exteral coordiatio with the adjacet ATC cetres that support this capability. More Cotroller-Pilot Data Lik messages tha before (CPDLC has bee i operatio at Maastricht sice 1995) are ow fully itegrated ito the cotroller s tools, leadig to a reductio i workload ad less risk of verbal miscommuicatios. Coflict-predictio techologies such as MTCD (medium-term coflict detectio) will offer further gais i efficiecy, by eablig cotrollers to rapidly assess trajectory chages ad issue timely resposes. The ew FDPS at Maastricht has bee developed above the origial specificatios, withi budget ad deployed over approximately 5½ years. Skyway 50 - Witer

34 Visits & Agreemets O 12 December a military delegatio from Chia, headed by Mr Zhogli, Seior Coloel of the Chiese Air Force, visited EUROCONTROL s Headquarters. The briefig focused o the role of the Cetral Flow Maagemet Uit (CFMU) ad civil ad military cooperatio i ATM. O 5 November a Israeli delegatio, comprisig represetatives from the Israeli Air Force ad the Missio of Israel to the Europea Commuities, was received at Headquarters. Presetatios o the role of EUROCONTROL, civil-military cooperatio i ATM, airspace security ad air traffic cotroller qualificatio were all part of the programme, together with a tour of the CFMU ops room. O 3 December, Korea air traffic cotrollers were received at Headquarters ad briefed o the role of EUROCONTROL i Europea ATM ad the Agecy s activities i the fields of safety, security ad huma factors. The visit eded with a tour of the CFMU operatios room. Traiees from the EU Trasport Directorate were welcomed at Headquarters ad briefed o the role ad key activities of the EUROCONTROL Agecy o 10 November. EUROPEAN COMMISSION Agreemet O 13 November 2008 EUROCONTROL, represeted by its Director Geeral, Mr David McMilla, ad the Miistry of Trasport of the Czech Republic, represeted by the Director Geeral of Civil Aviatio, Mr Jaromir Stolc, siged a Special Agreemet i Brussels. O 3 December, a Japaese delegatio represetig the Miistry of Trasport, the Electroic Navigatio Research Istitute ad the Japaese Air Traffic Cotroller Associatio visited EUROCONTROL Headquarters. The visit icluded a tour of the CFMU operatios room. Uder this agreemet, EUROCONTROL will udertake a idepedet review of the evirometal oise impact assessmet study, which has bee commissioed by the Prague airport operator, i cojuctio with the proposal for the costructio of a ew ruway at Prague Airport i order to cope with the expected icrease i traffic i the log term. 34

35 Forthcomig evets March 2009 ATC Global 2009 Amsterdam, The Netherlads 17 April 2009 Air Sports & Recreatioal Aviatio Day 2009 EUROCONTROL, Brussels More evets at www. eurocotrol.it i the Evets & Meetigs sectio Focus of the Sprig 2009 issue of Skyway: A balaced ATM performace Skyway 50 - Witer

36 Europea Orgaisatio for the Safety of Air Navigatio (EUROCONTROL) December 2008 This documet is published by EUROCONTROL i the iterests of exchage of iformatio. It may be copied i whole or i part, providig that EUROCONTROL is ackowledged as a source. The iformatio cotaied i this documet may ot be modified without prior writte permissio from EUROCONTROL. For more iformatio, please cotact the Skyway editor, Lucia Pasquii lucia.pasquii@eurocotrol.it Telephoe: Fax: EUROCONTROL 96, rue de la Fusée, 1130 Brussels, Belgium