Capacity Planning and Assessment Network Operations Planning

Transcription

1 Capacity Planning and Assessment Network Operations Planning Air Traffic Services System Capacity Seminar/Workshop Nairobi, Kenya, 8 10 June 2016 Raffaele Russo EUROCONTROL Operations Planning

2 Introduction - EUROCONTROL

3 EUROCONTROL 3

4 European Organisations ECAC Albania Armenia Bosnia and Herzegovina Georgia Moldova Monaco Montenegro Serbia The FYROM Turkey Ukraine Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands *Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden *Switzerland Estonia Azerbaijan Iceland San Marino EU EUROCONTROL * - States with the special agreements with EU. In the context of ATM they are treated like members. Italy UK Latvia 09/06/2016 4

5 Main Functions Directorate Network Management Directorate Central Route Charges Office Directorate Air Traffic Management EUROCONTROL Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre Directorate Pan- European Single Sky enter your presentation title 5

6 Areas of Expertise EUROCONTROL/NETWORK MANAGER CNS Communication, Navigation, Surveillance Airspace Design Surveillance tools CNS Standards and Specifications RVSM Monitoring Transponder Codes and Radio Frequencies Coordination Evaluation, analysis and design of traffic flows and airspace structures, including civil/military Macroscopic, Fast/Real Time Data, Tools and Simulations Capacity: analysis and planning Network and local capacity optimisation Macroscopic, Fast/Real Time Data, Tools and Simulations Airspace Management (Civil/Military Coordination) Various levels of planning for civil/military coordination and Flexible Use of Airspace, including network procedures LARA Civil/Military Airspace Management Planning Tool Safety Airport capacity enhancement and optimisation Training and human resources development Network Safety Risks Identification, including network management risks Continuous operational safety improvements Support to the implementation of safety management systems and procedures Safety Culture Capacity, efficiency and environment studies A-CDM: Familiarisation and implementation Our training covers: Various Air Traffic Management courses (ATM), Network Operations Communication, Navigation, Surveillance 6

7 Areas of Expertise EUROCONTROL/NETWORK MANAGER Involvement is ensured through: Participation in EUROCONTROL Expert Groups on all ATM/CNS areas Operational or technical Coordination and support of projects Direct support work on individual implementation projects: Airspace design Capacity evaluations ATM procedures Operational performance evaluations Civil/military (FUA) implementation support Technical projects, including specifications Fast and Real Time Simulations Execution of tasks on behalf and together with ICAO Transponder Codes and Frequency coordination RVSM monitoring Airspace design Operational and technical aspects on the interfaces between the ICAO EUR Region and other Regions 7

8 ATC Chain and Network Operations Flight Data Regional ATFM Airlines ATC ATC ATC Airports FPL Flight Plan Processing EAD Central data repositories ASM 8

9 Flight Data Regional ATFM Airlines ATC ATC ATC Airports FPL Flight Plan Processing EAD Central Data Repositories ASM Network Manager operations cover: Central management of airspace data (AIS, AIP, NOTAM and military requirements) A single flight plan based on an integrated process: a single entry point for submission, reception, verification and distribution (IFPS). Central Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management (ATFCM) Real time flight data: real time situation shared and accessible for all partners: reception, centralisation and distribution of all available information 9

10 Our Challenges

11 Our Challenge Every day Traffic Situation 11

12 Nb flights Entering / hour Analysis: AIRSPACE OVERLOAD Fri 1/7/2006 Traffic Sectors Overloads very high high medium slight at capacity below capacity overload Cap a SECTOR Sector S 00h00 Time 24h00 Capacity weaknesses 12

13 Analysis: NETWORK BOTTLENECK Conflicts Densities mixed with Traffic Densities Complexity assessment 13

14 European Airspace Network Life Cycle Network Capacity Planning Airspace Network Design Airspace Network Mngmt. Procedures Network Operations Network Strategy Network Operations Planning Network Technical Enablers Network Operations Performance Assessment & Analysis 14

15 From Ops Planning to Post-Ops -5 years -3 months -7 days Day 0 Capacity Assessment and Planning Strategic Pre-tactical ATFCM Tactical Post-Ops ACC Baseline capacity indicator Optimise sectorisation Sector configurations Sector opening schemes Staff planning New ATC system or upgrade Route structure development Axis meetings Simulation Planning Coordination Special events planning Re-routings Play book Scenarios ADP Regulation Slot Allocation STAM Sector occupancy Analysis Reports 09/06/

16 Assessing traffic demand Centralised flight planning Traffic forecast

17 Flight Planning in Europe with NM IFPS One FPL for all NM area Full acknowledgement process Dynamic re-processing Highly automated (>95%) NM IFPS

18 Flight Planning Process AO Direct Filing Two BRU units ADEP MAN REJ ACK MAN: Manual Processing ACC Required 1 REJ: Reject - refile BRE ACC 2 ACK: Acknowledge ACC N Distribution ADES 18

19 IFPS Initial Flight Plan Processing System Centralising the management of flight plans at REGIONAL level Collaborative with civil and military airspace users Delivered with the highest degree of security and service continuity, including disaster recovery A single flight profile AGREED with airlines & shared between ALL ATM actors Direct filing from aircraft operator to IFPS Accurate, predictable, consistent picture of DEMAND across a region Routing assistance: Opportunities for more efficient routes KEY STEP for building a regional ATFM capability, optimising capacity and flight efficiency Implementing System Wide Information Management (SWIM) standards to support interoperability in order to give wide access to our services, via business to business and client applications, without geographical constraints 19

20 IFPS Initial Flight Plan Processing System Additional Functions Safety/security watch: alerting function Callsign Similarity Service (CSS): support to airlines & ANSPs for preventing call sign confusions Demand Data Repository (DDR): traffic MODELLING system to anticipate future demand 20

21 IFPS BENEFITS Highly automated > 96% of flight plans automatically processed. Single consistent flight plan for all ATM stakeholders. Concrete gains in flight efficiency (flight plan route as close as possible to the shortest direct route). Simplified flight plan handling for all actors, with access via business to business and client interfaces, in addition to legacy systems. 21

22 Traffic Forecast EUROCONTROL (STATFOR) 7 Year forecast 7-year IFR movements forecast:

23 STATFOR Traffic Forecast year IFR movements forecast:

24 Assessing Sector Capacity The CAPAN Methodology

25 ATC Capacity Influencing Factors Ref.: ICAO DOC

26 Assessing sector capacity through controller workload Several approaches to workload modelling Workload selfassessment Task time models Traffic/sector complexity models Different workload vs.capacity relationships Workload thresholds Different assessment process Numerical Estimates Fast-time Simulations Real Time Simulations Several valid methodologies available enter your presentation title 26

27 CAPAN Simulation Methodology Sector Capacity Controller Workload 27

28 Fast Time Simulation in ATM Events at Sector Actions Tasks Workload 28

29 CAPAN RCAPAN 70% Regression Analysis 29

30 Assessing Optimum Opening Schemes and Future Bottlenecks

31 Optimize configuration opening schemes Using the same controller-hours differently results in less sector overloads 31

32 Optimize configuration opening schemes Using additional controller-hours only solves some of the overload problems 32

33 Find future bottlenecks Use the latest STATFOR forecasts to see where bottlenecks are likely to appear

34 Network Capacity Planning

35 Winter Annual Performance Analysis - Network Operations Report (the NOR) Consolidation of Plans - Network Operations Plan (the NOP) Tool NEST (SAAM + NEVAC) Demand Data Repository DDR2 STATFOR Spring Traffic Forecast Network Delay Forecast Update NOP Autumn Traffic Forecast update Traffic Demand and Distribution Capacity Requirements and Delay Interactive Capacity Planning meetings with ANSPs ANSP Plans Summer Evaluation of Summer performance ACC Capacity Baselines 09/06/

36 Capacity Planning and Monitoring Sector capacity, configuration and opening scheme data Traffic & Delay statistics ACC Capacity Baselines Current Situation Analysis Network Operations (end of year) Report PAST PERFORMANCE FUTURE OUTLOOK Economic Forecast User Demand Airport Capacity Plans States Transport Policies Traffic Forecast Future Traffic Demand and Distribution per ACC Future ATS Route Network (output from Route Network Development Sub-Group - RNDSG) Expected Hourly Airport Capacities Policy on Delay / Capacity targets Assessment of Future ACC Capacity Requirement Profiles Demand Evolution dataset NEVAC Assessment Capacity Planning Meetings LSSIP: Local Capacity Plans Network Operations Plan Seasonal Implementation Actions European Strategic ATM Network Operations Performance Plan 36

37 Approved Capacity Planning Methodology 37

38 Consolidated performance-based planning process Operational Performance monitoring Short/Medium-Term Planning 38

39 IFR flights (Daily Average) Enroute Delay (minutes per flight) Consolidated performance-based planning process 2015 Summer Peak Day Traffic Summer Traffic Yearly Traffic Summer Traffic Forecast High Traffic Forecast - Summer Low Traffic Forecast - Summer Summer enroute delay (all causes) Yearly enroute delay (all causes) * *From 01/01/2015 to 31/10/ Summer 2015 performance Traffic Evolution 2015 Capacity Baseline EPWWACC - Traffic and en-route ATFM delays En-route Delay (min/flight) - Summer Ref value Actual Capacity gap -1.6 % 142 (+5%) No The average en-route delay per flight decreased from 1.14 minutes per flight in Summer 2014 to 0.27 minutes per flight in Summer % of delays were for the reason ATC Capacity, 6% for Weather and 4% ATC Staffing Capacity Plan +3% Achieved Comments Improved ATFCM techniques, including STAM YES New sector s occupancy reference values Additional controllers YES ATCOs available Improved sector configurations and management (additional measure to the 2015 plan) YES Introduction of Traffic Manager position (additional measure to the 2015 plan) YES Increased number of effective configurations (up to total of 87) D-1 and tactical planning, EU restrictions and scenarios applied during Summer 2015 Minimizing ATC Staffing cause of delays (additional measure to the 2015 plan) YES Achieved ( decrease from 13% on 2014) Maximum configuration: 9 sectors YES 9 sectors Summer 2015 performance assessment The ACC capacity baseline was measured with ACCESS/Reverse CASA at 142, 5% higher than in During the measured period, the average peak 1 hour demand was 149 and the average peak 3 hour demand was 140. r) u o h r e p ts n e m v e o (m file ro p a c ity a p C ACC EPWW 142 Capacity Profiles 2015 Profiles (hourly movements and % increase over previous year) baseline Free Route Airspace Airspace Management Advanced FUA Airport & TMA Network Integration Cooperative Traffic Management Airspace Procedures Staffing Technical Capacity Significant Events H 144 1% 151 5% 160 6% 170 6% Ref % 145 1% 150 3% 155 3% L 142 0% 142 0% 142 0% 143 1% Open 145 2% 150 3% 156 4% 160 3% C/R 147 4% 152 3% 158 4% 163 3% Capacity Plan Stepped implementation of FRA Implementation of A-CDM at Warsaw Chopin airport Stepped implementation of vertical sectorisation 7 additional controllers Re-evaluation of sector capacities In new vertical split airspace Full implementation of FRA in Baltic FAB Initial ASM Tool to support Advanced FUA Advanced ATFCM techniques, including STAM Polish airspace project Introduce 5 NM longitudinal separation Improved flexibility in vertical sectorisation, new configurations responding to flow demand World Youth Days in Krakow (July 2016) Additional layer Additional controllers Initial ATC air-ground data link services above FL-285 Improved sector configurations and management of configurations Implementation of air-ground 8,33 khz ch. spacing requirements below FL195 Max sectors 9/10 9/10 10/11 10/11 10/11 Capacity increase p.a. 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Reference profile 1% 1% 3% 3% N/A Profile Current routes 4% 3% 4% 3% N/A Additional information Transition to vertical sectorisation in the first phase in 2016 will be focused on safe transition and familiarisation with the new operational environment. Therefore overall performance however planned to be enhanced, might not be necessarily a primary target. EPWWCTA - Reference capacity profile and alternative scenarios Reference Capacity Profile Capacity Profile - Shortest Routes (Open) Capacity Profile - Current Routes Capacity Profile - High Capacity Profile - Low Capacity Baseline Plan Operational Performance monitoring Short/Medium Term Planning 39

40 Strategic drivers Free Route Airspace Capacity Plan Stepped implementation of FRA Full implementation of FRA in Baltic FAB Airspace Management Advanced FUA Airport & TMA Network Integration Cooperative Traffic Management Airspace Procedures Staffing Technical Capacity Implementation of A-CDM at Warsaw Chopin airport Stepped implementation of vertical sectorisation 7 additional controllers Re-evaluation of sector capacities In new vertical split airspace Initial ASM Tool to support Advanced FUA Advanced ATFCM techniques, including STAM Polish airspace project Introduce 5 NM longitudinal separation Improved flexibility in vertical sectorisation, new configurations responding to flow demand Additional layer Additional controllers Initial ATC air-ground data link services above FL-285 Implementation of air-ground 8,33 khz ch. spacing requirements below FL195 Significant Events World Youth Days in Krakow (July 2016) Improved sector configurations and management of configurations Max sectors 9/10 9/10 10/11 10/11 10/11 Capacity increase p.a. 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Reference profile 1% 1% 3% 3% N/A Profile Current routes 4% 3% 4% 3% N/A Additional information Transition to vertical sectorisation in the first phase in 2016 will be focused on safe transition and familiarisation with the new operational environment. Therefore overall performance however planned to be enhanced, might not be necessarily a primary target. 40

41 Airspace Network Design

42 Collaborative Rolling Airspace Design Planning Preparing the European Route Network Improvement Plan 42

43 Collaborative Airspace Design Planning, Integrating a coherent European Route Network Improvement Plan 43

44 AIRSPACE DESIGN Advanced Airspace Scheme (AAS): LONG TERM A living Master Plan, Collection of FABs & Network Plans Guideline for Medium & Short term Developments Current Pan European FABs Network Optimised/Efficient Ideal/Direct Current Route Network Current Traffic Flow Optimised Route Network Optimised Traffic Flow Direct Route Network Ideal/Direct Traffic Flow AAS Trade off between flight efficiency and network capacity 44

45 Consolidated Airspace Structure Development FREE ROUTE AIRSPACE REDUCED SEPARATION NAT TRACKS NIGHT / WEEKEND ROUTES FAB INITIATIVES RVSM TERMINAL AIRSPACE IMPROVEMENTS 45

46 Annual Review Implement! ICAO Military EUROCONTROL State / FAB / ANSP representatives RNDSG FPL service providers Users Plans: short, medium & long term Validate Coordinate 09 46

47 European Route Network Improvement Plan Operational Performance monitoring Short/Medium-Term Planning 47

48 Enroute Design - The Old Way 09/06/

49 Enroute Design - The New Way 09/06/

50 Modular Sectorisation WEEK WEEKEND Sector 2 Sector 2 FL305 FL335 Sector 1 Sector 1 Flexible and dynamic sectorisation able to respond to different traffic patterns 09/06/

51 FRA State Example GIZDA(E) STAND(EX) PENDA(EX) GONDO(E) N E (I) BRAIN(I) KIEM GABOR(E) Military SPECIAL AREA (SA) ARES FBZ TODOR(EX) ROMAN SAM VOR(EX) ELENA(D) BORCE(E+EX) KIRCHBERG GERIS(A) DENIS(EX) P112 ADELI(EX) CHRIS(E) ANOTHER FIR

52 FRA Cross Border Example GIZDA(E) STAND(EX) PENDA(I) LENNE(E+EX) GONDO(E) N E (I) BRAIN(I) KIEM GABOR(E) Military SPECIAL AREA (SA) ARES FBZ TODOR(I) ROMAN(I) SAM VOR(EX) ELENA(D) BORCE(I) KIRCHBERG GERIS(A) DENIS(EX) P112 ADELI(EX) CHRIS(I) ANOTHER FIR

53 FRA Cross Border Example SA Active LENNE(E+EX) STAND(EX) GIZDA(E) PENDA(I) GONDO(E) N E (I) BRAIN(I) KIEM GABOR(E) TRA123 Military TODOR(I) ROMAN(I) N E (I) SAM VOR(EX) ELENA(D) BORCE(I) KIRCHBERG GERIS(A) DENIS(EX) P112 ADELI(EX) CHRIS(I) ANOTHER FIR

54 Flight Planning when Transiting from FRA FRA FL370 ATS route Network FL350 FL36 5 EEEEE (E) Entry point AAAAA (I) Intermediate point BBBBB (I) CCCCC (I) XXXXX exit point (X) E/I/X FRA points above FL365 FPL: FPL: EEEEE/N460F370 DCT AAAAA/N460F350 UA1 BBBBB UA1 XXXXX EEEEE/N460F370 DCT AAAAA/N460F350 UA1 BBBBB UM01 CCCCC STAR AD

55 Flight Planning when Transiting to FRA FRA FL350 FL370 ATS route Network FL36 5 EEEEE (E) Entry point DDDDD AAAAA (I) Intermediate point BBBBB (I) CCCCC (I) XXXXX exit point (X) E/I/X FRA points above FL365 FPL: EEEEE/N460F350 UA1 AAAAA/N460F370 UA1 BBBBB DCT XXXXX FPL: AD SID DDDDD/N460F260 UM01 AAAAA/N460F370 UA1 BBBBB DCT CCCCC DCT

56 User Options KEVIN LENNE(E+EX) KARIN GIZDA(E) STAND(EX) PENDA(I) GONDO(E) BRAIN(I) KIEM GABOR(E) Military N E (I) TODOR(I) ROMAN(I) or TODOV28555 (I) SAM VOR(EX) ELENA(D) BORCE(I) KIRCHBERG GERIS(A) DENIS(EX) P112 ADELI(EX) CHRIS(E) ANOTHER FIR

57 ERNIP Part 2 ARN Version Main developments Free Route Airspace 57

58 ERNIP Part 2 ARN Version Main developments Free Route Airspace 58

59 ERNIP Part 2 ARN Version Main developments Free Route Airspace 59

60 ERNIP Part 2 ARN Version Main developments Free Route Airspace 60

61 Civil Military Cooperation

62 Improved ASM/ATFCM Coordination Process Moving closer to the time of operations with better anticipation Airspace Users Submit airspace requests Network Manager with local partners Collaborative process to identify the solution optimising the Network Better consideration of the airspace dynamicity Re-filed FPLs back in the ATM system ASM & Local Flow Managers Identify possible solutions Airspace Users Informed about the airspace status and replanning operations accordingly 62

63 WIN-WIN Approach Optimised Network with more route options More Precise airspace requests / Less Segregated airspace Better use of new route opportunities Improved information process about released airspace Consideration of rerouting scenarios due to route closure Better flexibility in ad-hoc airspace allocation 63

64 ATM Procedures

65 Enhanced ATM & ATFCM Procedures 65

66 Addressing capacity at Inter-Regional Level

67 2014 Daily NM Flights 140 High Increase Middle East SE Asia China 1463 Predictability Traffic within NM Area flights 1460 Crisis Planning and Management 923 SE Asia Gulf

68 Predictability Local, Regional and Global Interoperability and Data Sharing Surveillance and updates of flight data Radar, ADSB, ACARS. Local, Regional and inter-regional ATFM measures Traffic Demand: Schedules and Flight Plans Information: capacities, special events, meteo, disruptions Network Infrastructure: airports, airspace structures, FIR, ACC, sectors 68

69 Integrated Planning Toolset

70 NEST: Network Strategic Tool Integrated & interactive support-airspace design & network capacity It features: 1. airspace structure design and development, 2. capacity planning and post operations analysis 3. strategic traffic flow organization 4. scenario preparation for fast and real-time simulations 5. ad-hoc studies at the local and network level. 70

71 NEST Input Data Default datasets for NEST: consolidated pan-european airspace and route network, traffic demand and distribution as well as STATFOR. All this data can be downloaded from the Demand Data Repository (DDR) web site. Automated Data Preparation Process

72 Services and tools Organising the airspace Airspace Design Airspace Management ASM/ATM/ATFCM procedures Capacity Enhancement Airspace & Capacity Modelling Network Strategic Tool (NEST = SAAM-NEVAC tool) Fast-Time Simulation: CAPAN Methodology Real Time Simulation: Airspace /ATM Procedures Demand Data Repository (DDR) 73 73