Master Plan Update. Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Meeting #1. Master Plan Update DECEMBER 14, 2016

Transcription

1 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Meeting #1 DECEMBER 14, 2016

2 Welcome! Airport Team Members - Rebecca Hupp Airport Director - Matt Petaja Deputy Director - Jill Singer Airport Project Manager Airport Consultant Team - Joe Birge Ricondo & Associates - Damon Smith Mead & Hunt - Max Braun Ricondo & Associates - Joe Huy Ricondo & Associates 2

3 Agenda Introductions TAC Expectations Master Plan Overview and Schedule Inventory of Existing Conditions Aviation Activity Forecast - Local Trends - Preliminary Forecast Comments and Questions Next Steps Closing Remarks 3

4 TAC Members Austin Shontz, Western Aircraft Blake Martin, Turbo Air Jeff Jackson, Jackson Jet Center Derick O Neill, City of Boise, Daren Fluke, City of Boise Meg Leatherman, Ada County Planning Holly Delay, ATCT Scott Eaton, FAA Rachel Rud-Scaraglino, Customs Russ Westerberg, General Aviation Monica Del Rio, Southwest Airlines Andy Coose, TSA General Gary Saylor, IDNG Kevin Hoffman, UPS Darrell Wodowski, FedEx Howard Harmon, Paradies Jeff Friedman, Delaware North Paul Decloux, Enterprise Steve Jones, Hertz Lauren Mclean, Boise City Council & Public at large Teri Sato, Alaska Airlines Mike Pape, Idaho State Aeronautics 4

5 TAC Participation Guidelines Be present and participate Attend four meetings - Two hours on weekdays Review materials and be prepared to discuss Represent interests beyond your own - Including those of your peers, partners, and industry - Be respectful and open to differing opinions from fellow TAC members 5

6 A Master Plan IS A process stipulated in FAA AC 150/5070-6B A comprehensive study that describes the short, medium, and long-term airport development plans to meet future aviation demand Elements of a Master Plan studies - Public Involvement Program - Environmental Considerations - Inventory of Existing Conditions - Aviation Forecasts - Facility Requirements - Alternatives Development and Evaluation - Airport Layout Plans - Facilities Implementation Plan - Financial Feasibility Analysis 6

7 A Master Plan is NOT A business or marketing plan A policy document - Informs future policy does not set it Rigid and inflexible An FAA development mandate - or a guarantee of FAA funding A wish list A Military Aircraft Basing Study 7

8 Boise Airport Schedule 8

9 Inventory of Existing Conditions 9

10 Purpose of Identifying Existing Conditions Inventory BOI s current state of condition as the basis for potential future development Collect data/information needed for technical elements of the - Aviation activity forecasts Current/historical aircraft operations, passenger counts, and socioeconomic data are important inputs to the forecast process - Facility requirements Existing conditions are measured against forecast demand to determine future facility needs - Alternatives development and evaluation Existing operational and environmental issues may restrict or necessitate certain development alternatives - Implementation/financial planning Existing conditions can affect how future development is implemented/phased Historical funding and other financial data serves as the basis for determining financial feasibility of the development alternatives 10

11 Approach for Identifying Existing Conditions Data/information has been gathered from interviews with and/or data requests made to: - BOI Finance and Ground Transportation - BOI Security and Operations - BOI Facilities and Engineering - BOI Property and Contracts - Fixed Base Operators (Western Aircraft, Turbo Air, Jackson Jet Center) - Cargo operators (FedEx, UPS) - Military (Air National Guard, Army National Guard) - National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) - FAA Airport Traffic Control Tower Types of data obtained to date include: - Prior report - Current Airport Layout Plan and CAD drawings FAR Part 150 Study - Ground transportation statistics - Airfield pavement condition data - Environmental and sustainability information - Utilities information - Aircraft gate use data - Runway and taxiway usage - Socioeconomic data and projections - Airport parking analysis report - Airport lease log - Aviation activity data 11

12 Existing Conditions Elements Inventory data is organized into the following categories for documentation purposes: - Airfield facilities - Passenger terminal facilities - Support/ancillary facilities - Ground access and parking facilities - Utilities and stormwater drainage - Airspace and air traffic control procedures - Environmental inventory - Regional setting and land use - Nonaeronautical land/compatible land use planning - Socioeconomic data - Meteorological data - Aviation activity statistics (to be included in activity forecasts chapter) - Financial data (to be included in financial feasibility chapter) 12

13 Aviation Activity Forecast Section One Local Trends 13

14 Despite Industry Consolidation the Air Service Market Continues to be Served by Multiple Airlines Annual Departing Seats 1/ and Passengers 2/ (millions) Calendar Year Annual Aircraft Operations 3/ (thousands) Alaska Southwest Delta United American Other Enplaned Passengers Aircraft Operations NOTES: 1/ Actual flown departing seats. 2/ Enplaned passengers are passengers boarding an airplane from BOI. 3/ Total operations (arrivals and departures). SOURCE: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Form T-100, November

15 The Way Airlines Utilize Capacity at BOI is Changing 3.0 Annual Departing Seats 1/ and Passengers 2/ (millions) Calendar Year O&D Connecting Through Empty Seats Total Seats NOTES: 1/ Actual flown departing seats. 2/ Enplaned passengers are passengers boarding an airplane from BOI. SOURCES: U.S. DOT, DB1B Survey, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November

16 Non Stop Destinations August Destinations Served by Scheduled Airlines 89 Average Daily Flights 7,247 Average Daily Departing Seats 4,385 Average Daily Departing Seats to Major Airline Hubs 1/ August Destinations with Scheduled Service 1/ 64 Average Daily Flights 5,999 Average Daily Departing Seats 3,967 Average Daily Departing Seats to Major Airline Hubs 2/ NOTE: 1/ As published in Innovata schedule data as of August / Major airline hubs are Atlanta (ATL), Denver (DEN), Dallas-Ft. Worth (DFW), Houston Intercontinental (IAH), Los Angeles (LAX), Chicago Midway (MDW), Minneapolis/St. Paul (MSP), Chicago O Hare (ORD), Phoenix (PHX), Seattle (SEA), San Francisco (SFO), and Salt Lake City (SLC). SOURCE: Innovata, November

17 Local Socioeconomic Conditions Have Stabilized in Recent Years 30% 20% Change From % 0% (10%) (20%) (30%) Calendar Year Population Employment Total Earnings Personal Income Personal Income per Capita Gross Regional Product NOTES: Socioeconomic variables are for the BOI Air Trade Area, which includes Ada, Adams, Boise, Canyon, Elmore, Gem, Owyhee, Payette, Valley, and Washington counties. Economic data are inflation-adjusted. SOURCE: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., November

18 Both Passenger Volumes and Revenues Are Growing Change From % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (10%) (20%) (30%) (40%) (50%) Calendar Year 1/ O&D Passengers O&D Revenue Average Fare NOTES: Includes passengers terminating at U.S. destinations only. 1/ O&D Origin and Destination, passengers not connecting at the Airport. SOURCE: U.S. DOT, DB1B Survey, November

19 Aviation Activity Forecast Section Two Preliminary Forecast 19

20 Enplaned Passenger Forecast Methodology Short-Term (2016): Conducted analysis of published schedules, carrier announcements, and recent performance of carriers serving the Airport. Incorporated socioeconomic analysis to project underlying demand. Medium- to Long-Term ( ): Conducted various socioeconomic analyses at the local and national levels to identify longer-term demand growth at the Airport. Resulting demand growth estimates were applied to estimate enplaned passengers. Overall: Assumed no additional industry shocks - Airline consolidation - Fuel spikes - Economic recession Forecast Scenarios - In addition to the baseline forecast, high and low growth scenario forecasts will be developed 20

21 O&D and Connecting Enplaned Passenger Forecast 3.0 Annual Enplaned Passengers (millions) Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only CAGR 1/ = 2.4% 8.6% from 2015 to Actual O&D Passengers Calendar Year Forecast Connecting Passengers NOTE: 1/ CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate, the average annual growth. SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, DB1B Survey, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 21

22 Passenger Aircraft Operations Methodology Average seats per departure changed according to fleet mix projections - Aircraft orders - Operating characteristics of airlines serving the Airport - National trends favoring larger aircraft Used historical trends to estimate completion factor of scheduled operations Assumed average load factor would remain relatively consistent throughout the forecast period 22

23 Passenger Airline Operations Forecast 70,000 Annual Passenger Aircraft Operations 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only CAGR = 1.5% Actual Calendar Year Forecast SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Innovata, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 23

24 Load Factor and Seats per Departure Forecast Average Seats per Departure Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Average Load Factor % Actual Seats per Departure Calendar Year Forecast Average Load Factor NOTE: 1/ Average number of enplaned passengers divided by total departing seats. SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), OPSNET, November 2016; Innovata, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 24

25 Cargo Volumes and Operations Forecast Methodology Conducted socioeconomic regression analysis at the local and national levels to identify relationships between socioeconomic variable and total cargo volumes Used forecast socioeconomic variables and their relationship with total cargo volumes to project cargo volumes Used the historical relationship between total cargo volumes and all-cargo operations to forecast all-cargo operations 25

26 Cargo Volume Forecast Annual Cargo Volumes (millions of pounds)1/ Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only CAGR = 2.2% Actual All-Cargo Carrier Volumes Calendar Year Forecast 2/ 3/ Belly Cargo Volumes NOTES: 1/ Total volume, departing and arriving. 2/ All-cargo carriers do not transport passengers (e.g., FedEx, UPS). 3/ Belly cargo is cargo transported on passenger aircraft. SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 26

27 All-Cargo Aircraft Operations Forecast Annual All-Cargo Aircraft Operations 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only CAGR = 1.8% Actual Calendar Year Forecast SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T- 100, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 27

28 General Aviation/Other Air Taxi Aircraft Forecast Methodology Analyzed historical relationship between national and local general aviation activity Used the historical relationship and projected growth in general aviation hours flown in the FAA Aerospace Forecast to forecast operations by aircraft type - Piston - Turbine - Jet - Other 28

29 General Aviation/Other Air Taxi Aircraft Operations Forecast Annual General Aviation Aircraft Operations 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only CAGR = 1.5% Actual Calendar Year Itinerant Local 1/ Forecast NOTE: 1/ Local operations are aircraft operating only in the local traffic pattern of the Airport. All other operations are itinerant. SOURCES: FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; FAA, Traffic Flow Management System Counts (TFMSC), November 2016; FAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast: Fiscal Years , November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 29

30 Military Aircraft Operations Forecast Annual Military Aircraft Operations 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only Held constant based on the FAA TAF Actual Forecast Military Aircraft Operations NOTE: Forecast military operations are held constant at 2015 levels, consistent with the approach in the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for the Airport. Military operations are mission specific and have the potential for high variability depending on military needs. SOURCES: FAA OPSNET, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 30

31 Aircraft Fleet Mix Methodology Forecast Passenger airline fleet mix projections were based on: - Aircraft orders - Operating characteristics of airlines serving the Airport - National trends favoring larger aircraft Cargo fleet mix was projected to remain at 2015 levels General aviation fleet mix was based on forecast operations by aircraft type 31

32 Passenger Fleet Mix Forecast 100% Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only Percent of Passenger Operations 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Actual Calendar Year Fewer than 51 Seats (CRJ2) Seats (E190) Seats (A319) 151 Seats or More (MD83, B739) Seats (B737, A320) Seats (DH8D, E170, CRJ7) NOTE: The representative aircraft indicated are not exhaustive and do not imply any particular aircraft will operate at the Airport in the future. They are provided as a comparison to aircraft seen operating at BOI in SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 32

33 Airport Total Fleet Mix Forecast 100% 90% Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only Percent of Airport Operations 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Actual Calendar Year GA/Small (C206, CRJ2, DH8D, E170, UH1) Narrowbody (A320, B737, B752) Widebody (A306, A310, B763) Military (A-10, UH-60, C-130, F-15) NOTE: The representative aircraft indicated are not exhaustive and do not imply any particular aircraft will operate at the Airport in the future. They are provided as a comparison to aircraft seen operating at BOI in SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 33

34 Comparison of Enplaned Passenger Forecasts Annual Enplaned Passengers (millions) Calendar Year Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only Historical 2016 BOI Master Plan Forecast 2015 FAA TAF 1/ Forecast Variance From TAF 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% (5%) (10%) (15%) (20%) Variance from TAF Calendar Year Variance from TAF FAA Variance Tolerance Range 2/ NOTES: 1/ Adjusted to calendar year for comparison. 2/ Variance tolerance levels are 10% within 5 years and 15% within 10 years (FAA AC 150/5070-6B). SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, 2015 Terminal Area Forecast, November 2016; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). 34

35 Comparison of Aircraft Operations Forecasts Annual Aircraft Operations (thousands) Preliminary Draft Forecast for Review Purposes Only Calendar Year Historical 2016 BOI Master Plan Forecast 2015 FAA TAF 1/ (10%) (15%) (20%) NOTES: 1/ Adjusted to calendar year for comparison. 2/ Variance tolerance levels are 10% within 5 years and 15% within 10 years (FAA AC 150/5070-6B). SOURCES: City of Boise, Aviation Department, Traffic Reports, November 2016; U.S. DOT, Form T-100, November 2016; FAA, OPSNET, November 2016; FAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast: FY , November 2016; FAA, 2015 Terminal Area Forecast, November 2016 ; Ricondo & Associates, Inc., November 2016 (forecast). Forecast Variance From TAF 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% (5%) Variance from TAF Calendar Year Variance from TAF FAA Variance Tolerance Range 2/ 35

36 Comments and Questions 36

37 Next Steps Finalize forecast numbers and documentation Submit draft forecast to FAA for review/ approval Begin analysis of facility requirements Next TAC meeting: May 2017, to be determined in February - Topics: Facility requirements and initiation of alternatives development 37

38 Information and Master Plan Comments Website: 38

39 Public Involvement Program Public Open House Tonight Boise River Room - Third Floor of Airport Two Sessions - 5 p.m. 6 p.m. - 7 p.m. 8 p.m. Parking will be validated 39

40 Thank you! 40