Warsaw 17 Sep 2014 Peter Bellew

Transcription

1 Warsaw 17 Sep 2014 Peter Bellew

2 T h e F u t u r e o f LC C i n Po l a n d 1929 Polish Aviation Innovation 2014 A Great year for Poland Ryanair Changing Business in Poland Ryanair s Business Model The Future of LCC in Poland

3 G r e a t Ye a r f o r Po l a n d 10 years of EU accession 15 years of NATO membership 25 years since Third Polish Republic Fastest growing economy in Europe % recent quarter Polish GDP doubled in 10 years 390 billion from 201 bn. Polish economy grown faster than rest of EU, by 49% since Avg. rest of the Union is only 11%.

4 E u r o p e s F a v o u r i t e A i r l i n e Europe s Lowest Fares/Lowest Unit Costs Europe s No 1, Traffic Europe s No 1, Coverage Europe s No 1, C mer Service 86m (No 1 or 2 in most markets) 69 Bases Low Fares/On-time/Bags/Canx Always Getting Better/Digital rollout Fwd bookings & Ld factors rising since Sept 13 Aircraft orders (180 NG s & up to 200 MAX s) deliver 150mpa by FY24 Unblemished 30 year Safety Record World s highest rated airline, BBB+, S&P and Fitch

5 N o 1 F o r C o v e r a g e 69 bases 186 airports 30 countries 1,600+ routes 86m c mers p.a. 304 a/c all s Newest fleet (< 5 Yrs) 180 Boeing NG order New 200 Boeing MAX order

6 S t r o n g M a r ke t Po s i t i o n Country (Cap m s) No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 RYA Share UK (115) easyjet IAG 13% Germany (112) Luft Air Berlin 4% Spain (103) IAG Vueling 18% Italy (84) Alitalia easyjet 21% France (73) AF- KLM easyjet 6% Portugal (20) TAP easyjet 13% Belgium (17) SN Brussels Jetairfly 21% Ireland (16) Aer Lingus AF-KLM 40% Poland (14) LOT Wizz 27% Morocco (11) RAM easyjet 13% Source: 2013 Dep. Seats per Capstats & Diio Mii. Mkt positions adj. for 2014 schedules. 6

7 E u r o p e s L o w e s t F a r e s Avg. Fare % > Ryanair LOW Ryanair 46 (-4%) MEDIUM Norwegian % easyjet % Aer Lingus (s/h) % Air Berlin % HIGH Alitalia % Lufthansa % IAG % AF-KLM % Ave.Fare 163 Source: Latest Annual Reports

8 E u r o p e s L o w e s t U n i t C o s t ( E x F u e l ) RYA EZY NOR AB1 LUV Spirit Staff Airport & hand Route charges Own ship & maint S & M + other Total % > Ryanair + 79% +114% +269% +155% +103% Source: Latest Annual Reports

9 N o 1 F o r Tr a f f i c C mers (m s) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2014 Ryanair Growth Source: Latest traffic stats for 12 mths to Mar14 and company forecasts. 9

10 S a v i n g E u r o p e > 1 0 b n E v e r y Ye a r Average saving: 117 per flight x 86m customers p.a = 10bn saving every year Average Ryanair fare vs competitors x * * Aer Lingus, Easyjet, IAG, KLM-AF, Air Berlin

11 C u s t o m e r E x p e r i e n c e I m p r o v i n g RECAPTCHA scrapped 24hr grace period Quiet flights (early AM, late PM) 2 nd free small carry on bag B rding card reissue & bag fees cut New Groups & Corp. Travel Dept. Allocated seating New PayPal partnership 11

12 D i g i t a l E x p e r i e n c e I m p r o v i n g Simpler website (17 to 5 clicks) My Ryanair, c mer registration Fare Finder, great response GDS (Galileo/Worldspan) for business agents New mobile app for smart phones New Business Plus Continuous IT & digital improvement underway

13 F a m i l y e X t r a 50% allocated seating discounts, checked-in bags & travel insurance* Reduced infant fees (now just 20/ 20) A free 5kg infant bag allowance Discounted priority boarding* Bottle warming & baby changing facilities Two free pieces of infant equipment Bring an approved car seat on board Fly & Save bonus - 20% off your 3rd family flight p.a *(when booked by an adult)

14 R y a n a i r Po l a n d 11 airports 4 bases 7 aircraft 122 routes 7m c mers p.a. 7,000 jobs (ACI) 820m savings p.a. Poland s No 1 airline

15 B u s i n e s s P l u s 27% of RYR c mers travel on business Business Plus from 295PLN Flexibility on Ticket Changes 20kg checked-in bag allowance Fast track airport security (incl WMI) Priority boarding Premium seats *(at selected airports)

16 R y a n a i r E f f e c t W a r s a w 2 based a/c Base opens 23 Oct 23 routes W 14 7 new routes W weekly flights 2m c mers p.a. 2,000 on-site jobs (ACI)

17 W a r s a w D o m e s t i c R o u t e s Starts Freq Ryanair LOT Warsaw Gdansk Tue 28 Oct 2 x daily 78 PLN 376 PLN Warsaw Wroclaw Tue 28 Oct 2 x daily 78 PLN 388 PLN * Prices for return flights on 28th Oct 14, booked 10th Sep

18 B o e i n g M A X 20 0 T h e G a m e c h a n g e r 200 Boeing MAX Aircraft The Gamechanger 100 Firm & 100 Options Deliveries start 2019 to seats (+4%), CFM LEAP Engines & competitive pricing = Lower unit costs & lower fares for c mers Slimline seats = more leg room Boeing Sky Interior improves c mer experience Up to 18% lower fuel costs & 40% noise emission redn. Fleet grows to 520 a/c by FY24 Drives growth to 150m c mers by FY24 Flexibility via options, sales & lease handbacks Maintains youngest fleet age <5 yrs

19 B o e i n g S k y I n t e r i o r

20 I m p r o v i n g C u s t o m e r E x p e r i e n c e

21 Better Digital Better Service Extended Product New Distribution Better Brand A l w a y s G e t t i n g B e t t e r Campaign #1 Airport Rebrand Campaign #2 Google Groups GDS 1 Corporate GDS 2 Flight Winter 14 & new bases Business Plus Summer 15 & new routes Quiet Flights 2 nd Free Bag Fees Cut Allocated seats PED use Website V1 My Ryanair Website V2 App V1 App V2 Nov 13 Dec 14 Sep 14

22 The Ryanair Formula Lower fares, lower costs Low cost, more efficient, bigger aircraft High people productivity through incentives Lower maintenance costs on new aircraft Higher utilisation / lower costs at secondary airports More flights per day per aircraft Internet sales of 99% = lowest S&M costs Profitable ancillary sales reduces costs Lower costs = lower fares = higher growth & profits

23 The Ryanair formula Dublin - London Dublin London Passenger Growth Million PAX 1 0 Ryanair start

24 The Ryanair formula London - Barcelona London Barcelona Passenger Growth Million PAX 1 0 Ryanair start

25 MAX Order Order F l e e t / Tr a f f i c G r o w t h F Y 1 5 t o F Y 2 4 Fleet (at YE) C mers P.A. C mer Growth Cum Growth FY m + 5% + 5% FY m + 5% + 10% FY m + 7% + 18% FY m + 8% + 27% FY m + 8% + 37% FY m + 7% + 47% FY m + 6% + 55% FY m + 6% + 64% FY m + 6% + 74% FY m + 5% + 84%

26 N e w L o w C o s t D r i v e r s Boeing aircraft orders drive growth from 304 to 520 a/c by FY24 10 yr Stn growth deal agreed from Apr Lower costs & more efficient facilities - Stn traffic to grow 50% from 13m to > 20m p.a. - Delivers 25% of forecast traffic growth to yr WAW (Mod) growth deal - Sept Lower costs & more efficient facilities - First 2 domestic routes (Gdn & Wro) from April 2014 Flags in Sp, Fr, It, Cen Eur, Scan & Ger cut capacity growth opportunity

27 Competition in Retreat (2012/14) CLOSURES FLAGS LCC s Spanair Malev BMI Baby Wind Jet AF-KLM Iberia SAS LOT Air Berlin easyjet Wizzair Spain Hungary UK Italy France/Ned Spain Scandinavia Poland Germany UK E. Europe 2,000 job losses 2,600 job losses 1,200 job losses 2,800 job losses SH losses of 750m 4,500 job cuts, 35% pay cuts 6,000 job cuts, 15% pay cuts 950 jobs cut Closed MAD & cut LPL base Cut Cork & WAW routes

28 Proj. Annual Seat Capacity Europe Airline projection Comment Ryanair 98,830, ,263, a/c order - grow at 5% per annum up to 2019 Norwegian 26,235,950 52,471,899 Aircraft order to support growth to over 50m Wizz Air 14,665,752 19,626,084 Likely to grow at c6% per annum. Vueling 21,135,919 30,343,345 Likely to grow at c7.5% per annum. British Airways 33,700,756 35,385,794 Short haul likely to grow by c1% per annum easyjet 65,333,932 77,596,216 Guided to grow at c3% per annum up to 2016 Pegasus 15,752,123 22,614,210 Continued growth expected Turkish Airlines 38,769,669 47,169,230 Continued growth expected KLM 22,107,604 23,212,985 c1% growth per annum in short haul traffic Lufthansa 77,683,955 81,568,153 c1% growth per annum in short haul traffic SWISS 18,014,325 19,889,270 c2% growth per annum in short haul traffic Flybe 13,624,982 13,624,982 Short haul likely to remain stable Aer Lingus 13,356,271 13,356,271 Short haul likely to remain stable Austrian 12,134,547 12,134,547 Short haul likely to remain stable SAS 32,695,653 31,060,870 Restructuring - short haul likely to reduce airberlin 29,374,870 29,374,870 Restructuring - short haul unlikely to grow Iberia 22,076,350 19,868,715 Restructuring - short haul likely to reduce Alitalia 21,137,546 19,023,791 Restructuring - short haul likely to reduce Air France 50,797,768 50,797,768 Restructuring - short haul unlikely to grow TAP Portugal 11,093,875 11,093,875 For sale - may be restructured when sold OTHERS 211,000, ,000,000 No net growth expected as consolidation continues Total Capacity 849,522, ,476,872 Total Market Growth Projection 113,954,655 Total Market Growth 114M Ryanair Growth 43M Ryanair accounts for 38% of total growth over next 5 years

29 Low costs generate additional pax. Country Population SH Flights (Per Capita) SH Flights (Per Annum) Potential Increase (At 3.2 Flights P.C.) Ireland Spain UK 4m 47m 63m m 150m 202m Mature Low Cost Markets Netherlands Sweden Belgium Germany France Italy Poland 17m 10m 11m 82m 64m 61m 38m m 27m 22m 156m 115m 104m 15m 14% 19% 59% 69% 78% 88% 707%

30 Business Definition Product is a commodity Others can enter business cheaply Therefore we must do it better Continuous improvement Continuous cost reduction

31 Cost Reduction The only competitive advantage is to be the lowest cost operator Champion cost control Celebrate cost reduction Every cost item is examined Highlighters Ice Stationery Distribution / Internet Travel

32 Simplify The process The way we manage The way we communicate

33 Communications strategy Clarity Same message for all groups Reinforce the indicators of success Cost control Load factor Punctuality Share price Growth story ABSOLUTE IMPORTANCE OF INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTION

34 Future of Airline Industry Massive Consolidation 5 Big Players Ryanair Lufthansa / Swiss / SAS / Austria easyjet Etihad/ Alitalia BA / Iberia Air France / KLM No Room for Small Independent High Cost Airlines

35 Future of LCC in Poland Polish economy growing rapidly. Low current levels of penetration of air travel. Polish People Love to Fly Love the Sun. LCC share of seats within C/E Europe is only 15%, compared with 38% within Western Europe. Strong record of unbundling products Lot and Eurolot retrenchment High costs at Chopin vs. Great regional airports

36 Future of Ryanair in Poland Hire 500 Polish pilots over next 5 years Hire 1,000 s of cabin crew opportunity Possible maintenance facilities Rebirth of Polish State as an Aviation innovator Potential new bases and routes Vast potential for Tourism and Business

37 S u m m a r y Boeing aircraft orders drive growth from 304 to 520 a/c by FY24 Traffic grows from 82m p.a. to 150m c mers p.a. (+84%) by FY24 69 bases, 186 apts, 30 EU countries huge platform for growth New a/c improves Ryanair s lowest cost/lowest fare model 197 seats (+4%) & up to 18% fuel saving drives profit growth Boeing Sky interiors improves onboard c mer experience The Gamechanger delivers for RYR c mers, people & shareholders

38 28 July 2014 Appendices Questions?