DUBLIN AIRPORT REVIEW OF EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST FOR AN INDEPENDENT TERMINAL PANEL REPORT TO MINISTER FOR TRANSPORT. February 2003

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1 DUBLIN AIRPORT REVIEW OF EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST FOR AN INDEPENDENT TERMINAL PANEL REPORT TO MINISTER FOR TRANSPORT February 2003

2 CONTENTS SECTION PAGE 1 Executive Summary 3 2 Background & Terms of Reference 16 3 Context 19 4 Review of Expressions of Interest 37 5 Emerging Concepts 51 6 Stakeholder Implications 65 7 Conclusions 79 APPENDICES PAGE 1 Summary of organisations submitting expressions of interest 87 2 Summary of locations proposed for an independent terminal 89 2

3 SECTION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background The Programme for Government provides for an examination of the concept of an independent/competing terminal at Dublin Airport. Accordingly, the Minister for Transport invited expressions of interest for such a concept. Thirteen expressions of interest were received from national and international companies and consortia. A Panel was established to assess the responses and to advise the Minister on the viability of an independent terminal operation at Dublin Airport. The Panel s terms of reference and material considered are outlined in Section Dublin Airport high level review Dublin Airport is Ireland s largest airport and primary international gateway, with 15.1 million passengers per annum (mppa) using the airport in This represents a 5.3 per cent increase over Dublin was one of only four major airports in Europe to grow traffic in Traffic has grown strongly in line with economic growth coupled with the emergence of low cost airlines. This has produced a 46 per cent increase in passenger numbers since The UK market remains the most important in terms of overall passenger numbers, however the UK market as a percentage of overall traffic has declined from around 62 per cent in 1997 to 52 per cent in European traffic has grown from 28 per cent in 1997 to 37 per cent in 2002 while transatlantic traffic has remained static at circa 5 per cent in the period. Aer Rianta s expected Centreline forecast for traffic at Dublin Airport indicates circa 30 mppa in 2018 and 42 mppa by Aer Rianta forecasts a further 1.5 million passengers in year one if additional quick turnaround aircraft were based at the Airport, assuming sufficient infrastructure capacity were in place Low cost versus hub - Low cost carriers contributed around 26 per cent of total passenger traffic at Dublin Airport in They also have the ability to significantly contribute to the future growth of the Airport. However for this to be achieved, a number of key business model factors would have to be present: Competitive airport charges. Sufficient facilities to ensure fast turnaround of aircraft. Sufficient profitable demand for their services, especially to new destinations. 1 Source for traffic statistics: Aer Rianta and Air Transport Intelligence. 3

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In its favour, Dublin has proved extremely popular for the low cost market to and from the UK. Low cost carriers have demonstrated that markets exist that traditional carriers have not been able to develop. There is every reason to believe that Dublin could be very successful in this market to many destinations in continental Europe, if the key business model factors are present. Aer Lingus operates a relatively low level hub network from the Airport, with a limited number of connections available. Estimates of the current number of passengers transferring between flights at Dublin are around 5 per cent 2 of total passenger throughput (circa 700,000 in 2001) compared to 30 per cent to 50 per cent at a main hub airport. The predominant operation at Dublin Airport caters for a wide range of point to point services. A key change in the Irish aviation market since September 11th has been the restructuring of Aer Lingus. As part of this restructuring, the airline has adapted its operational model to increase overall levels of aircraft utilisation. In addition, the airline has launched services to a number of new destinations at relatively low frequency per week aimed at capturing a greater share of both the inbound and outbound leisure markets. Increases in low cost services and further expansion of point to point services have infrastructure implications for Dublin Airport, such as increased demand for appropriately sized aircraft contact stands Emerging Dublin Airport master plan - Following the recent terminal redevelopment and expansion at Dublin, the Airport has a terminal capacity of up to 20 mppa 3 depending on the level of service offered to passengers. However, aircraft parking stands, particularly contact stands adjacent to the terminal, are unlikely to provide sufficient capacity to meet demand up to 20 mppa. In addition, runway capacity, especially at peak periods, has become constrained and will limit future growth. The existing aircraft contact stands currently achieve a high level of utilisation 4. In order to achieve further growth, the Panel accepted (based upon the information provided) the case for additional contact stands to be provided at Dublin Airport. If built, Aer Rianta s proposals for a new Pier D would provide 12 stands (a net increase of 8 contact stands). Aer Rianta s plans for a new runway, scheduled to open around 2008, would significantly increase runway capacity, which is currently estimated to be around 42 movements per hour 5. 2 Source: Aer Rianta. 3 Source: Aer Rianta master planning team. 4 Source: Aer Rianta, data based on actual aircraft operating times on 27 July Source: Panel estimates. 4

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Aer Rianta master plan currently being developed has the core objectives of planning for 30 mppa by 2018 and facilitating future growth to beyond 50 mppa thereafter. Conclusion of the option and sub options review including costings, construction programmes and final recommendations is due by April In addition, a number of shorter term measures have been identified by the Aer Rianta planning team to accommodate forecast growth through to Pier D, to the north of the existing Pier A, has been designed as a quick turnaround facility. As planned, it could be adapted to provide capacity for other carriers and wide body operations. Completion is forecast for late Summer 2004, subject to the planning appeals process. In the interim, a temporary forward coaching facility (a facility where passengers are coached to a remote midfield lounge prior to boarding their aircraft) had been proposed to provide relief for Summer The earliest forecast completion date is now late Summer 2003, again subject to the planning appeals process Doganis report findings - The 2002 Doganis report on the optimum strategy for the Government and Aer Rianta to follow reached a series of conclusions relevant to this review of independent terminal proposals at Dublin Airport. These were: Lower airport charges will not in themselves encourage the launching of new routes because they are not the main determining factor in an airline s route planning decisions. Significantly lower airport charges for low cost carriers would not be costrelated and would therefore be discriminatory. Lower airport charges in themselves will not encourage significant additional incoming tourists since they represent such a small part of a total holiday cost. While the need for Pier D or a similar facility does not appear urgent because of existing spare capacity elsewhere, such capacity does not meet the very specific requirements of low cost carriers. A new Pier D would not have significantly lower unit operating costs than the existing piers. Therefore any reduction in airport charges would be quite limited Strategic options report findings The 1999 Warburg Dillon Read report on the strategic options for the future of Aer Rianta contained a number of key findings relevant to the review of independent terminal proposals including: Aeronautical charges at Dublin Airport are low when compared to peer European airports. 5

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Some capital expenditure projects might be conducive to third party financing where such projects would not jeopardise the efficient operation of the Airport and were based on commercial terms. Aer Rianta s financial outlook is severely strained. If aeronautical charges are held back, and notwithstanding capital expenditure being cut back significantly, then the company would become financially strained in the years ahead and produce significantly lower returns than would be expected for similar companies. Competition, in an airport context, should be fair, open and reasonable, and should be effected on commercial terms without subsidy. The report briefly examined the concept of an independently owned second terminal at Dublin Airport and concluded that international precedents were not favourable because of operational difficulties and that high levels of aeronautical charges would have to be levied to generate an adequate commercial return Regulation The Panel noted that most observers have concurred that the level of charges at Dublin Airport is extremely competitive when compared to peer European airports. To further stimulate traffic, an innovative incentive scheme offering zero airport charges has been introduced for new routes out of Dublin Airport that fulfil published criteria. The Panel concluded that airport charges, at their current level, are not a barrier to airlines developing new routes out of Dublin Infrastructure requirements - The Panel concluded that if a new terminal were to be provided (regardless of which option was selected), the existing runway infrastructure would have insufficient capacity to accommodate the potential additional traffic. Under a scenario of rapid growth in quick turnaround aircraft operations, runway movement constraints might prevent operators achieving the high aircraft utilisation that is critical to the success of their business model. The Panel therefore considered additional runway capacity as an essential element for a step change in the competitive environment at Dublin. Such additional runway capacity could be achieved by implementing the new parallel runway proposals envisaged by Aer Rianta as referred to earlier. On the other hand, one of the expressions of interest proposed an extension to the existing short Northern Runway 29/11 at a much lower cost than the proposed new runway. The Panel believes that this alternative proposal should be carefully evaluated. In common with many busy airports, road congestion is already a significant issue at Dublin Airport. In particular, access to the departures level ramp suffers from congestion at peak times. Based on the Panel s experience elsewhere, the existing landside road system serving the airport is unlikely to provide sufficient 6

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY capacity in the medium to long term. This is a key issue that the new Aer Rianta master plan is seeking to address Expressions of interest The thirteen expressions of interest received ranged from highly developed proposals, including terminal layout plans, phasing details and indicative costs, to letters notifying the Department of Transport of interest in submitting a proposal should the decision be taken to proceed to a formal tendering process Concepts proposed - The majority of responses specified a terminal to serve a specific market on one of four sites. The Panel considered the main features of each proposal, both in terms of the market served and the location of the terminal. This was based upon the information provided within the submissions, which was further informed by a presentation by Aer Rianta s master planning team. The markets that the proposed terminal would seek to serve fell into three primary categories: Point to point traffic predominantly for low cost airlines. Point to point traffic predominantly for full service airlines. Integrated hub and spoke traffic for full service airlines. It should be noted that hubs have specific requirements. Geographic position, close to large centres of population, a dominant based airline committed to a hubbing strategy, abundant runway capacity, and substantial local traffic with a significant proportion of high yield passengers are all necessary components. Having reviewed the nature of the Irish market, competition from other airports, as well as historic and forecast passenger segments, the Panel has concluded it is unlikely that Dublin will evolve into a recognised hub airport Sites identified - Many of the responses did not feel restricted to land within the Airport boundary or in the control of one of their consortium members. From the responses, a number of preferred locations emerged: North of the existing old central terminal building, on the existing Hangar 1 site. South-east of the existing main terminal building in the vicinity of the cargo buildings. On the western boundary of the airfield and north of the main Runway 10/28. To the south of the main Runway 10/28. The Panel s report includes a high level review of these sites, which are broadly similar to a number of options being considered in the development of Aer Rianta s master plan. The Panel s understanding is that Aer Rianta s master planning team has not dismissed any of these sites on operational grounds. 7

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY If the concept of an independent terminal is to be progressed, the results of detailed site assessment studies, which the Aer Rianta s planning team has already progressed to an advanced stage, will be required. In particular, information in relation to costs associated with landside and airside infrastructure and any necessary displacements of existing facilities will be critical in assessing potential sites. In the Panel s view, if the locations proposed have operational integrity for Aer Rianta, they should work for an independent terminal operator Benefits claimed for an independent terminal - Benefits claimed in the expressions of interest are summarised in the table in Section 4.7. The majority of the benefits relate to carriers and highlight improvement in facilities, operational capability, lower cost and choice between terminal operators. From the Airport s perspective, the main benefits claimed were increased capacity and a better match of facilities with airline requirements. For the public, the main benefits claimed were improved facilities, choice of new routes and services provided by carriers in the new facility, a reduction in the cost of car parking and improved access (depending on location) Financing and economic dimensions of the proposals - Few actual details were provided as to the envisaged levels of aeronautical charges, or the split between aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue streams required to make the project financially viable. A number of organisations expressed the view that aeronautical revenues would account for the majority of revenue in the early years with more emphasis on non-aeronautical revenue as the operation matured. A number of the proposals outlined broader economic benefits to Ireland that would be derived from an expansion of Dublin Airport. However there was little supporting evidence to underpin some of the claims of job creation and greater economic activity Regulatory implications - The regulatory implications of an independent terminal at Dublin Airport were highlighted by many of the organisations. The main points raised by the submissions were: The existing regulatory structure should be adequate provided that the costs of individual components of service delivery are properly separated out. This is currently not the case as Aer Rianta operates within an overall price cap. If this cannot be rectified, then separating common assets from competing assets has been suggested by a number of submissions. Concerns that Aer Rianta, as the owner/operator/regulator of airside facilities, would have control of access to taxiways and runways for airlines using an independent terminal. 8

9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The regulatory regime must be transparent such that revenue can be predicted with reasonable certainty and is not subject to significant change due to new regulation Emerging concept Context - The Panel considered the expressions of interest within the context of Aer Rianta s emerging master plan. Based upon information provided by Aer Rianta and its consultants, a number of basic assumptions have been made on how the Airport might develop in the future: Growth in line with Centreline forecasts that does not include a significant increase in the quick turnaround element of overall traffic growth. Aer Rianta would continue to develop their facilities incrementally at the Airport, providing capacity in line with forecast demand. Aer Rianta would develop Pier D to meet the short term needs of quick turnaround operators. Airlines would not base significant numbers of additional aircraft at Dublin without a major increase in quick turnaround facilities Emerging concept - The Panel considers that the key features of an emerging concept most likely to meet the strategic aviation objective outlined in the terms of reference are as follows: A terminal designed primarily to provide capacity for short haul UK and European flights based around a fast turnaround, point to point operation. A terminal developed in phases, with the first phase providing a capacity of up to 10 mppa, and future phases up to an overall capacity of 20 mppa. A terminal providing the step change in capacity and through competition, operational efficiency necessary to enable significant expansion of services from the Airport overall. The necessary provision of additional runway capacity. In more detail, the components of the emerging concept would be to: Provide a significant increase in additional terminal and aircraft contact stand capacity at the Airport. Further improve service levels for airlines and passengers. Provide an environment to promote competition between terminal operators. Cater for short haul traffic that is likely to form the bulk of future growth at the Airport. 9

10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Incorporate principles and basic conditions regarding financing of directly related and shared infrastructure, competitive guidelines, etc. so as to inform third party development interest in the project. Incorporate revenue sharing principles, particularly in relation to potentially shared infrastructure such as car parks, airside infrastructure and aircraft fuelling Concept formulation The foregoing concept was formulated having regard to a number of central concerns Airline users - The envisaged concept would not be built to serve a single user; it would accommodate the differentiated service levels and requirements of the wide range of airlines at Dublin Airport serving the short haul UK and European markets. Although a mixed operation, i.e. both low cost and traditional airlines operating from a new terminal, was not directly promoted by any of the parties expressing interest, the Panel considered that the inherent features of the proposals do not preclude a mix of operators in any new facility. Indeed it is critical to the promotion of real competition that a new terminal should not be dedicated to one airline or a particular type of traffic. It is more likely that current and future long haul traffic using Dublin would continue to be served by the existing terminal. The added complexities of serving long haul traffic would reduce some of the inherent benefits of the quick turnaround terminal concept. Many of the organisations expressing an interest in the independent terminal concept appear convinced that the project is financially viable. In this context, the Panel feels that the level of aeronautical charges at the Airport is likely to increase for the following reasons: Charges appear to be at an uneconomically low level to allow for the significant investment in facilities required at the Airport. There is likely to be some dilution of Aer Rianta non-aeronautical revenues in the short term, and thus of available cross subsidy, if a significant number of passengers were to move to a new independent terminal. Even with efficiency measures, the average net cost to Aer Rianta of its services on a per passenger basis would rise in the short term. The Panel s view is that the attractiveness of an independent facility should not be viewed solely on the basis of lowest cost for airline users. Dublin Airport already has competitive charges and innovative incentives for new routes compared to peer airports. Operational effectiveness and quality of customer service, at a realistic cost, would be major aspects of competition between 10

11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Airport terminals. This should provide a powerful incentive for airlines to develop services from the Airport Pier D and timing - An independent terminal development would be likely to remove the need to build Pier D in the short term, but would not remove the need to replace Pier A, and potentially redevelop Pier B in the existing terminal. An initial shift of a significant volume of traffic from the existing terminal into a new facility would provide Aer Rianta, in the short term, with spare capacity to facilitate redevelopment of their existing terminal facilities. A key issue identified however, is the timing of the provision of a new independent terminal. Based on analysis undertaken by Aer Rianta s master planning team, the existing airside facilities are already operating at or near capacity. A possible option prior to the introduction of any independent terminal would be to construct a temporary facility until such time as a new terminal would be operational. This proposal mirrors the Aer Rianta proposal for a temporary facility in advance of Pier D Surface access and displacements - The implications of providing additional terminal capacity of up to 20 mppa on the existing landside and airside infrastructure would be critical. Clearly the funding of additional infrastructure is a key issue and funding principles would have to be established reflecting the need for the new terminal to meet the full direct and indirect costs involved. The funding of airside and landside infrastructure and displacements should be addressed in overall project costings Location As already noted, if the concept of an independent terminal were to be progressed, a detailed site assessment study would be necessary to ensure the selection of an optimum site that best integrated into the overall Airport operation. Much of this work has already been undertaken as part of the Aer Rianta master planning process. This should enable any assessment of an alternative site for a new terminal to be undertaken relatively quickly Competition and regulation - The Panel concluded that an independent terminal would stimulate, through increased capacity and quality of terminal services, effective competition at Dublin Airport. Such a terminal would give airlines a choice between terminal operators, provided that sufficient capacity was available in the new terminal from day one to enable airlines to switch some or all of their services. Competition underpinned with appropriate regulatory structures should act as the incentive for operational and financial performance improvements as well as ensuring that levels of airport charges are not out of line with the relevant economic costs of service provision Meets current and forecast traffic requirements - Forecasts suggest that European routes will continue to be the key driver of growth in the short to 11

12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY medium term. Short haul UK and European traffic accounted for circa 90 per cent of all traffic at Dublin Airport in Aer Rianta s forecast growth in quick turnaround traffic suggests that an additional 1.5 mppa could be added within the first year of a facility catering for this type of traffic. The Panel concurs with this view Financial feasibility at a competitive cost - It is unlikely that the concept of a high volume fast turnaround facility would be financially feasible unless the following are achievable: Airline tenants, contracted to use the terminal for specific services for a minimum duration, and capable of providing volume passenger throughput. Appropriate levels of charges for the services provided. Opportunity to develop significant retail and property revenue streams. Opportunity to have a competitive cost base. The financial aspects of the development of an independent terminal would require a realistic level of airport charges to provide an adequate level of return to a developer. Notwithstanding the undoubted commercial revenue potential, this on its own would not be sufficient to develop and operate a new terminal and associated landside and airside infrastructure. The Panel believes that while airport charges should be reasonable when compared to other peer airports, the real benefits to airline users would arise from the operational efficiencies that come from having a high capacity facility developed to meet the needs of fast turnaround operations. Transparent regulation of the shared activities would be critical to ensuring an equitable basis for competition. The Panel believes the required level of transparency can be achieved. From the shareholder s perspective, the Department of Finance would see short term diminution of shareholder value offset, to some degree, by potential receipts from an appropriate contractual relationship with the terminal developer. A medium term increase in shareholder value of an increasingly efficient and competitive Aer Rianta is also a realistic premise. Private sector investment in new infrastructure would also reduce, to a degree, short term pressures on Aer Rianta s capital expenditure programme Timing and legislative issues - The development of an independent terminal is an extensive process. From the Panel s experience, the period required from preparation of comprehensive tender documents to having facilities in operation is likely to take a number of years. A temporary facility as referred to earlier, developed and managed by Aer Rianta could ease the pressures on airlines and passengers in the short term. The estimated duration of four to five years from a decision to develop tender documents for an independent terminal until a new facility becomes operational 12

13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY would depend on no significant delays being experienced at any of the key stages. The Panel is unaware of any specific environmental issues that could impact on future development at the Airport. It is the Panel s understanding that legislative changes to two important Acts - the Air Navigation and Transport (Amendment) Act 1998 and the Aviation Regulation Act would be required to allow the development of an independent terminal at Dublin Airport. The time lag before any new independent terminal becomes operational would give Aer Rianta sufficient time to review its business plan so as to manage any necessary changes to enable it to compete effectively in the new environment. 1.6 Specific issues to be addressed The Panel was directed to address a number of specific issues The Irish economy - The Irish economy is likely to see a number of impacts from an independent terminal. In the first instance, there are the benefits from the further development of a competitive and efficient Airport as a key element in the overall economic and business infrastructure of the country. More specifically, tourism numbers have the potential to increase but the rising trend of outbound passengers from Ireland must also be recognised. The Panel agrees with the findings in the Doganis report that there is no compelling evidence that the net impact of an increase in quick turnaround service from Dublin Airport would result in a significant net tourism benefit. Thus, there are no clear grounds for any beneficial treatment of a particular section of the aviation industry on the basis of an unproven wider economic argument. Airports are large economic generators in their own right, with the opportunity of continued strong growth translating into growth in the overall employment base. Growth of services at the Airport would increase the number of jobs. However given that the Airport is growing at a healthy rate in any event, the net incremental jobs benefit from an independent terminal would come from the commencement of additional services that would otherwise not have operated from Dublin Airport. A competing terminal would of course promote overall operational efficiencies at the Airport. The features of the current regulatory structure ensure that Aer Rianta management and the Regulator also share this objective Effective and efficient operation of Dublin Airport - The Panel concluded that an independent terminal would stimulate, through increased capacity and quality of terminal services, effective competition at Dublin Airport. Such a terminal would give airlines a choice between terminal operators, provided that sufficient capacity was available in the new terminal from day one to enable airlines to switch some or all of their services. Such competition with appropriate regulatory structures should also ensure levels of airport charges that reflect the economic cost of service provision. 13

14 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A new terminal would allow Aer Rianta to focus on the retention of existing airline customers, either through offering charges competitive with the new terminal operator, or by offering value adding service standards to further improve the level of service in the areas they can influence. Such standards may relate to management of customer flows, guaranteed availability of check-in desks, aircraft stand availability and serviceability of key equipment such as baggage handling Project viability - The Panel concluded that the development of an independently funded and operated terminal is both operationally and technically feasible and that there is already significant preliminary support for such a concept from Dublin Airport s principal airline operators. The development of an independent terminal represents an attractive opportunity for an investor to participate in a fast growing international airport. However before any commitments are made to invest in new facilities, a number of issues would require clarification for potential developers: The terminal may not be financially viable on the basis of the existing level of aeronautical charges at Dublin Airport. However the Panel believes, supported by the Doganis report that increased charges, providing they are realistic, will not impact on the operational attractiveness of the facility for airlines. This is on the basis that there is sufficient demand for the potential range of new services from Dublin Airport. A key feature for any investor will be clarity and stability of the regulatory and pricing structure. Ambiguity from the Regulator on approaches to pricing or how particular assets are treated will provide uncertainty and represent risk for investors. To make this opportunity attractive, a clear operational and pricing regulatory structure is essential. The opportunity to develop commercial revenue streams will be a key requirement for any investor to ensure a balanced revenue profile. These are likely to include car parks, retail and catering facilities. Sufficient land may have to be included to allow hotel and commercial property development areas. The contractual structure of any agreement will be critical for an investor with areas such as duration, contract or concession structure, concession payment terms, and development obligations being important Market interest and further progression of the concept - The international experience of investors participating in airports has generally been positive with demand outstripping supply. There is a healthy market for the development of airport assets and this is confirmed by the number of organisations expressing an interest in an independent terminal at Dublin. Whilst the initial reaction from the market to the opportunity to develop an independent terminal was encouraging, and some of the organisations expressing 14

15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY interest provided detailed responses, this was a non-binding process with an open basis for inviting responses. To ensure a firm basis for testing the market with prospective developers, tender documentation would need to be specific on a number of areas including facilities specification, site location, available land for commercial development, and outline contract structure. Tender documents will take time to prepare to a comprehensive level to meet today s changing aviation market along with the exacting standards required for public procurement Implications for Aer Rianta - Aer Rianta would be profoundly impacted with the changing competitive landscape requiring them to continue with their ongoing restructuring programme. Revenues and costs would come under pressure in the short term following the loss of any business to a new terminal. However the Panel believes that Aer Rianta would vigorously react to competition for the benefit of airlines and passengers at Dublin Airport. Aer Rianta should be able to capture a share of the forecast growth and grow their business in the medium term. This would require a quantum shift in company culture to react to a new competitive environment, a shift that would only be delivered through the combined efforts of staff and management. 1.7 Conclusion The Panel has concluded that none of the issues identified are insurmountable and that an independent terminal is a viable strategic option for the development of Dublin Airport and would elicit considerable market interest. If this concept is to be progressed to the next stage of the tender process, it will require detailed consideration in the first instance of all of the issues discussed in this report. 15

16 SECTION BACKGROUND AND TERMS OF REFERENCE Background The concept of an independent/competing terminal at Dublin Airport has been put forward by a number of interests in recent years, and has been the subject of public comment. The new Programme for Government provides for an examination of such a proposal. The Minister believed that the most practical way forward at this point was to explore the pros and cons involved and to test the viability of the concept by canvassing the market. The Department of Transport invited expressions of interest for the possible provision of an independent terminal or terminals at Dublin Airport. The call for expressions of interest requested that the parties responding should provide information on a number of specific issues. The responses to these issues would help to inform the assessment as to whether there were one or more concepts relating to independent terminal provision at Dublin Airport that could be further developed. A closing date of October 31st 2002 was placed on lodging expressions of interest. On November 26th 2002, the Minister announced that expressions of interest in relation to the possible provision of an independent terminal at Dublin Airport had been received from thirteen national and international companies and consortia. Minister Brennan published the details of the organisations responding to the call for expressions of interest and also announced the establishment of a Panel to assess the responses. 2.2 Assessment Panel The Assessment Panel consisted of the following: Mr Paddy Mullarkey, former Secretary General of the Department of Finance, who was appointed to chair the Assessment Panel assisted by two experts in the area of international aviation, Sir Gilbert Thompson, OBE and Mr Paul Gaines. The Panel was supported by AviaSolutions, a UK based independent air transport consultancy. Sir Gilbert Thompson, OBE, who is most closely associated with the development and growth of Manchester Airport, which, under his leadership, developed from a small regional airport to become one of the world's top twenty international airports. Mr Paul B. Gaines, who is a US expert and strategic adviser to the aviation industry on airport affairs both within the US and globally. He brings a US and international perspective to innovation and strategic planning in the airports area. Mr Gaines has advised on airport issues for both governments and private clients in the US, Europe, Middle East and Central America. Mr Gaines brings to the present assignment over 23 years experience as executive director of two large airports in the US, Salt Lake City and Houston. He is a former Chairman of the world board of Airports Council International (ACI) - the global consultative/representative body for international airports. 16

17 DUBLIN AIRPORT REVIEW OF EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST FOR AN INDEPENDENT SECOND TERMINAL BACKGROUND & TERMS OF REFERENCE AviaSolutions were retained as independent air transport consultants to provide technical support and to produce papers for consideration by the Panel as well as contributing to the development of this report. The company focuses on serving the international aviation industry and comprises professionals from industry and consultancy. Clients include airports, airlines, aviation industry suppliers, aviation service providers, financial institutions and government bodies. 2.3 Expressions of interest received Expressions of interests were received from a range of organisations consisting mainly of airport operators, construction companies, airlines, property developers and a range of consultants. Details of the organisations that responded are included at Appendix Material considered and the Panel s terms of reference The information provided by those organisations submitting expressions of interest, as well as supplemental information from other sources, has greatly assisted the Panel s assessment of the potential viability of an independent terminal operation at Dublin Airport. The information provided was supplemented by the Panel s many years experience in the finance, planning and operational sectors of the international aviation industry. The Department of Transport s strategic aviation objective, as stated in the terms of reference was to: ensure that the principal gateway airports of the State are in a position to provide the appropriate infrastructure to meet the current and prospective needs of airlines and other aviation companies, at the lowest cost to those users consistent with fully commercial airport operations. The terms of reference of the Panel were to consider, in the context of the above objective, whether the various expressions of interest received point to the likely viability of one or more concepts for an independent terminal and to outline the main features of any such concept(s). Specific issues to be addressed in the Panel s assessment were: 1. What are the potential benefits or disbenefits of such a project for the Irish economy, (in particular the Irish aviation and tourism sectors), such as for the volume and range of air services to Ireland and the effective operation of Dublin Airport? 2. Is there evidence of a viable project, from the operational and financial perspectives, from the point of view of the promoter(s) of the project? 3. Is market interest sufficiently strong to warrant the concepts emerging to be further progressed e.g. through a formal tender process? 4. What are the likely broad financial and operational implications for Aer Rianta? 17

18 DUBLIN AIRPORT REVIEW OF EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST FOR AN INDEPENDENT SECOND TERMINAL BACKGROUND & TERMS OF REFERENCE The Panel was also provided with information to enable consideration of the expressions of interest within the broader context of the development of Dublin Airport and Ireland s air transport industry. This information included: Dublin Airport Masterplan (Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick, January 1999). Review of Strategic Options for the Future of Aer Rianta (Warburg Dillon Read, AIB Capital Markets, SH&E, December 1999). Consultancy Advice on Aviation Issues (Professor Rigas Doganis, 18 January 2002). Maximum Level of Airport Charges (Commission for Aviation Regulation, Commission Paper CP2/2002, February 2002). Draft Dublin Airport Masterplan (Status as at December 2002 including proposals for a new Pier D and second runway). Other ad hoc information and press articles. The Panel did not formally evaluate the existing or emerging Aer Rianta master plans, or any information other than the expressions of interest submitted. No further submissions or correspondence were considered beyond what was received by the closing date of October 31st No meetings or correspondence were directly entered into between the Panel and Aer Rianta, or any of the airlines using Dublin Airport. Any information required was provided through the Department of Transport. The Panel received a briefing from Aer Rianta s technical consultants on the emerging Aer Rianta master plan. This provided invaluable background to support the Panel s consideration of the key issues. This is discussed in more detail in Section 3 of this report. The Panel also conducted a site tour of Dublin Airport. 2.5 Report structure The report develops the context in which the viability of an independent terminal at Dublin Airport is to be examined by the Panel. Key elements include the development of passenger traffic at the Airport; recent changes in the Irish aviation market; Aer Rianta s emerging master plan options; and reviews a number of recent studies related to the Airport. A number of key issues that will influence the viability of an independent terminal are examined. The expressions of interest are then reviewed at a high level and the Panel s view of an emerging concept explored in more detail. The implications of an independent terminal at Dublin Airport for a range of stakeholders are considered. Conclusions are then reached as to the viability of an independent terminal at Dublin Airport. 18

19 SECTION CONTEXT Introduction The context within which proposals for an independent terminal are reviewed will be critical in assessing whether there are one or more viable concepts. This section reviews a number of key areas including Dublin Airport s recent traffic performance as well as future traffic forecasts. Infrastructure development plans are examined to understand how Aer Rianta plans to accommodate growth at the Airport. A number of other studies relevant to the independent terminal proposals are reviewed. The fundamental contextual issues surrounding the viability of an independent terminal concept are then considered. This provides a meaningful basis on which to then review the proposals submitted. 3.2 High level review of Dublin Airport Traffic summary Dublin Airport is Ireland s largest airport, and primary international gateway, with over 14.3 million passengers per annum (mppa) using the airport in This represents a 3.5 per cent increase over Dublin was one of only four major airports in Europe to grow traffic in the year. This trend has continued with traffic in 2002 up by a further 5.3 per cent to 15.1 mppa. Dublin Airport passenger traffic 1997 to Year Passengers (000s) Transatlantic UK Europe Domestic Source: Aer Rianta Annual Report 2001 and Aer Rianta 2002 statistics. 6 Source for traffic statistics: Aer Rianta and Air Transport Intelligence. 19

20 CONTEXT Traffic has grown strongly in line with economic growth coupled with the emergence of low cost airlines, with a 46 per cent growth between 1997 and The UK market remains the most important in terms of overall passenger numbers; however the UK market as a percentage of overall traffic has declined from around 62 per cent in 1997 to 52 per cent in European traffic has grown from 28 per cent in 1997 to 37 per cent in 2002 while transatlantic traffic has remained static at circa 5 per cent in the period. Dublin Airport traffic geographic segments 1997 to Year % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of Total Traffic UK Europe Transatlantic Domestic Source: Aer Rianta Prospects for the future are positive with the Dublin-Washington (Baltimore) route, dropped by Aer Lingus following September 11th 2001, scheduled to be reinstated in Spring Air Canada launched a daily Summer only service to Toronto in Summer 2002 and US Air plans to commence a daily service to Philadelphia in May The European markets were responsible for all of the growth in 2001, making up for decline in other geographic markets. Passengers in this region exceeded 5 mppa for the first time. Both scheduled and charter traffic enjoyed a significant increase with new services launched by Aer Lingus, Air France and Ryanair in 2002 and a new service to Oslo planned by Braathens in European traffic increased by a further 9 per cent in UK passenger numbers were static at 7.4 mppa in 2001 with declines in the London market offset by increased growth in the UK regional markets. However 20

21 CONTEXT UK traffic has recovered to increase by 6 per cent in Domestic traffic declined by 1 per cent in 2001 and a further 1 per cent in Dublin Airport traffic trends ,000 8,000 Passengers (000s) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Transatlantic UK Eur ope Domes tic Source: Aer Rianta Recent historic growth at the Airport compares favourably with other peer European airports 7. Comparison of traffic growth at Dublin with peer European airports % 15% 10% 5% Source ACI Europe Statistics 0% -5% -10% Dublin Manchester Birmingham Zurich Munich Copenhagen Brussels % 7 Source: AviaSolutions (ACI Europe Statistics). 21

22 CONTEXT 25.5 Passengers (m) Dublin Manchester Birmingham Zurich Munich Copenhagen Brussels Source: ACI Europe Statistics Forecast growth Traffic at Dublin Airport is forecast by Aer Rianta to grow to circa 30 mppa in 2018 and 42 mppa by Air transport movements (an aircraft arriving or departing from the Airport) are forecast to increase from around 180,000 to 314,000 by This growth is predicated on the timely provision of additional runway capacity. Four scenarios for expected Centreline growth, along with increases for additional quick turnaround aircraft (QTA), higher than assumed GDP growth, as well as lower GDP growth are illustrated. Aer Rianta s forecast difference between Centreline growth and an increase in quick turnaround aircraft activity is circa 3.5 mppa by 2030, with 1.5 mppa of this variance coming in one year (2003) assuming terminal capacity was in place. The Panel has not developed independent forecasts but feels that the overall increase in quick turnaround operations could be higher than 3.5 mppa based on proposals in some of the expressions of interest and observed growth at other European airports. 8 Source: Forecast 2002, Aer Rianta Report, September Source: Aer Rianta forecasts from master planning team. 22

23 CONTEXT Aer Rianta forecast traffic scenarios ,000 Passengers (000s) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Centreline High GDP Growth Low GDP Growth QTA centreline growth Source: Aer Rianta Aer Rianta forecast variance of QTA versus Centreline ,000 3,500 Passengers (000s) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Variance QTA versus Centreline Source: Aer Rianta Recent changes in the Irish aviation market A key change in the Irish aviation market since September 11th has been the restructuring of Aer Lingus. As part of this restructuring, the airline has adapted 23

24 CONTEXT its operational model to increase overall levels of aircraft utilisation. Turnaround times (the time between an aircraft landing and departing on its next service) have been reduced to achieve higher aircraft utilisation. Aer Lingus also expects to complete its fleet restructuring review in April 2002 after which it aims to make a decision on short haul fleet standardisation plans as soon as possible. This is driven by the need to reduce the number of aircraft types in its short haul fleet to cut costs. It is likely to standardise on one narrow body aircraft manufacturer, based on either Boeing or Airbus aircraft. In addition, the airline has launched services to a number of new destinations at relatively low frequencies per week aimed at capturing a greater share of both the inbound and outbound leisure markets. Changes such as these have infrastructure implications for Dublin Airport, such as increased demand for appropriately sized aircraft contact stands Low cost carriers The success of low cost airlines in Europe has been well documented. Based on the business model of Southwest in the US, airlines such as Ryanair have been able to exploit Europe s population density and the recently deregulated operating environment in order to undercut established carriers on short haul routes across Europe. These airlines operate on a much lower cost structure than traditional carriers through reduced staff numbers, lower service levels and overhead costs. Operating under a different route network structure also delivers increased efficiency. There is less emphasis on the smooth operation of a hub network with the low cost network based on direct point to point services. The airline provides no guarantees about making connections, allowing faster aircraft turnaround times with considerably more aircraft flying time built into the network schedule. The resultant higher aircraft utilisation and increased seat density on each aircraft allows the reduced costs to be spread over a higher number of passengers per flight. These cost savings have been the backbone of the low cost industry, providing an impressive track record of traffic and profit growth. The low cost revolution has now forced established airlines like Aer Lingus to re-think their cost structures and pricing models in order to compete effectively. Established airlines are responding strongly to the challenge and with fares now more affordable than ever before, passenger growth throughout the industry has increased significantly. There is no single model of operation for the low cost industry. Ryanair, with the exception of Dublin Airport, prefers to serve secondary and less congested destinations where excess airport capacity (and lack of existing air services) ensures that airport charges can be extremely low. In these airports, the added costs of large infrastructure projects have not yet been felt so charges can be kept to a minimum. This is a very important factor, as the inevitable increase in 24

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