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1 august 2015 special report: world airlines rankings 2015

2 SPECIAL REPORT WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS CONTENTS 26 Revenue reach A graphic snapshot of turnover share among the biggest carriers 28 Profits split Industry s financial strength continues, but 2014 fortunes were mixed 36 Top airline groups by revenue Financial rankings for last year s 100 biggest carriers 39 Airlines keep steady pace Global passenger traffic among the 150 leading carriers increased 6% last year 40 Top 150 passenger operations Our annual breakdown of the largest airlines by traffic, capacity and load factor Max Kingsley-Jones/Flightglobal The latest World Airline Rankings show that while the industry continued its recent profits run last year, much of this was driven by the strong performance of North American carriers after their restructuring. But fortunes differ widely among carriers across other regions and business models as competition remains intense All our special reports are available online at : flightglobal.com/airlines flightglobal.com/airlines July-August 2015 Airline Business 25

3 WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS REVENUE REPORT GRAHAM DUNN LONDON REVENUE REACH American Airlines Delta Air Lines FedEx United-Continental Southwest Airlines Air Canada The latest World Airline Rankings show the 100 biggest airlines lifted revenues 2.6% to $704 billion in American Airlines, following its merger with US Airways, led the pack with $42.6 billion in group revenues last year. Between them the three US majors generated revenues of over $122 billion. This contributed to revenues of $219 billion among leading North American carriers last year, the biggest share of all the regions last year North America $219bn LATAM Regional revenue figures are from the top 100 airline groups Latin America $32bn KEY Star Alliance SkyTeam Oneworld Unaligned kyteam neworld naligned American Airlines Delta Air Lines Lufthansa United-Continental Air France-KLM $43bn 26 Airline Business July-August 2015 flightglobal.com/airlines

4 Lufthansa IAG Air France-KLM Aeroflot EasyJet Turkish Airlines Emirates Etihad Qatar Airways TOP 25 GROUPS BY REVENUE China Southern Air China All Nippon Airways Qantas Cathay Pacific Japan Airlines Singapore Airlines Korean Air China Eastern Europe $194bn Middle East $52bn Asia- Pacific $197bn Africa $10bn FedEx IAG Emirates Southwest Airlines China Southern Air China All Nippon Airways China Eastern Qantas Cathay Pacific LATAM Japan Airlines Singapore Airlines Air Canada Turkish Airlines Korean Air Qatar Airways Aeroflot Etihad Airways EasyJet $8bn flightglobal.com/airlines July-August 2015 Airline Business 27

5 WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS OVERVIEW REPORT GRAHAM DUNN LONDON EDWARD RUSSELL & GHIM-LAY YEO WASHINGTON DC MAVIS TOH SINGAPORE PROFITS SPLIT The latest rankings show the industry s financial strength continued in 2014, supported by restructuring and lower fuel costs. But beyond North America, fortunes were mixed For an industry so used to shocks and red ink over the last 15 years, it is perhaps unsurprising that airlines may take some convincing that they ve never had it so good. This year s Airline Business World Airline Rankings show that net profits among the leading 100 carriers reached $12 billion in 2014 and over $30 billion at an operating level. It marks the fifth consecutive collecitve net profit among leading carriers, and sixth year of operating profits. And with oil prices back at more pallatable levels, this is set to continue again, with IATA projecting record industry profits in Yet the mixed nature of the business means that while many are thriving, others remain under pressure. For some, still gripped with restructuring, there is the possibility the peak of the economic cycle may come and go without them profiting from the good times. LEADING LIGHTS While fortunes within regions and in some cases, sectors differ widely, there is no doubt North American carriers are leading the industry s new found profits. The region s operators again prospered in 2014, as the World Airline Rankings show collective net profits for the leading American carriers of nearly $8 billion. Though this is below the $12 billion generated in 2013, that figure was distorted by Delta Air Lines $8 billion one-off income tax gain. 28 Airline Business July-August 2015 NORTH AMERICA 2014 SNAPSHOT Revenues: $219bn Net profits: $7.9bn Operating profits: $17.2bn Star performer: American Airlines capped US Airways merger with record profits Work in progress: JetBlue Airways - adding seats and revamped fares after missing 7% ROIC target in 2014 Challenges: Capacity management as unit revenues have been falling; regulatory probe into capacity; Gulf subsidy row distraction Collective operating profits showed the gains more clearly, increasing $3.5 billion to top $17 billion in That contributed over half the profits of the top 100 carriers. Much of this performance has been fuelled by consolidation and tight capacity discipline. The latter now is under scrutiny, both American Airlines from the markets and, more literally from competition regulators after the US justice department revealed it is investigating the possibility of collusion between US airlines on domestic capacity growth. Wall Street analysts were quick to criticise the move. As Jamie Baker, an analyst at JP Morgan noted in a 2 July report: The implication that airlines currently enjoy pricing power flies in the face of current data. Roughly 80% of fare increases we track have failed in recent years so we can t help but find humour in the suggestion of collusion. Indeed the markets of late have been more concerned about a lack of discipline. Gone are the days of near universal passenger unit revenue gains with capacity discipline the buzz words of the industry. Analysts now write of capacity creep and quarterly drops in unit revenues. But no one is raising a red flag. US carriers are expected to continue to lead as the industry heads for record profits this year. Indeed, IATA in its June forecast further lifted net profit expectations for this year among North American carriers to $15.7 billion. Wall Street analysts and rating agencies also still expect robust profits and margins from North American carriers in 2015 despite the weaknesses in the US market and capacity creep they have written so much about. Notwithstanding the current pressure on unit revenues in the US domestic market, markedly lower costs of jet fuel will more flightglobal.com/airlines

6 American Airlines United Continental Southwest Airlines Delta Air Lines FedEx Alaska Air Air Canada JetBlue WestJet IAG Ryanair Lufthansa EasyJet Turkish Airlines Thomson Airways Emirates North America $17.2bn Europe $5.9bn Japan Airlines Air China China Eastern All Nippon Airways China Southern Cathay Pacific Hainan Airlines LATAM Copa Airlines Middle East $2.1bn Asia- Pacific $3.3bn Regional figures are based on operating profits for the top 100 airlines KEY Latin America $1.7bn Africa $0.2bn Star Alliance SkyTeam Oneworld Unaligned than outweigh the uninspiring trend in passenger revenue per available seat mile, resulting in strong growth in earnings and free cash flow, said Jonathan Root, a senior credit officer at Moody s Investors Service, in commentary on the rating agency s upgrade of United Airlines in June. Moody s also upgraded Delta Air Lines in June, citing low fuel prices among its various reasons for the credit rating change. Brent crude prices stood at just under $60 per barrel in early July, US Energy Information Agency data shows. While that is nearly 10% higher than at the start of the year, it is still nearly half the level of a year ago. Low oil prices will provide US airlines with a windfall this year. Net savings could total up to $5 billion at American, $2 billion at Delta, about $1.7 billion at Southwest and, based on a back-of-an-envelope calculation, about $4 billion at United driving impressive cash flow and margin gains. The airlines plan to use these savings to accelerate their respective capital deployment programmes primarily reducing debt and returning cash to shareholders. MIXED MESSAGES But if the picture is consistent and clear in North America, it is anything but that across the rest of globe. Collective profits across the other regions are not only smaller by comparison, but there also are few consistent models of success. In short, what is working for one airline in one market may not for another in a neighbouring one. More than ever, there is no one size fits all. Profits among leading European carriers improved slightly in Collective net profits were just over $2.1 billion, compared with roughly breakeven for the same carriers in 2013 the difference virtually entirely accounted for by Air France-KLM almost wiping out the $2.4 billion lost in At an operating level, combined profits rose $300 million to $5.9 billion. But the picture is mixed. Out of 24 Europan carriers, a third were in the red at an operating FUEL GAIN, CURRENCY PAIN The sharp drop in oil prices in the second half of 2014 was as unexpected as it was welcome for airlines. Most were resigned to high prices as the new norm and were planning accordingly. Even with the barrel price of crude oil having picked up a little since dipping below the $50 mark early this year, at under $70 a barrel, prices remain significantly below 2014 levels. This has helped drive airlines continued improvement in underlying profits last year, and particularly so for this year. But while lower fuel prices equal reduced costs for airlines, they do not automatically translate to that. This is partly because of hedging strategies most airlines are tied to, at least to some extent, to take the edge off fuel pain when the oil price rises. Some airlines have initially had to take one-off charges to settle these. Delta Air Lines for example took a $372 million charge in mark-to-market fuel hedge losses in the first quarter, but was still able to double profits in the quarter, aided by lower fuel prices. Further complicating the potential fuel gains is the rapid strengthening of the US dollar against many currencies. This has had a big impact on costs paid for in US dollars for those airlines in non US-dollar denominated carriers and has further contributed to the split in fortunes between the highly profitable North American operators and those in other regions. This mitigates the gains from lower fuel costs. This also has an impact on the World Airline Rankings (see P36-38) which lists airline financials in US dollars for comparison purposes, as the change versus 2013 is impacted by the stronger US dollar. As a result, for most airlines not reporting in US dollars, the comparison versus 2013 in US dollars is less favourable than when reported in local currency. flightglobal.com/airlines July-August 2015 Airline Business 29

7 WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS OVERVIEW CAPACITY CONCERNS US carriers are expected to increase domestic capacity by about 5.5% to 6% in the second and third quarters, analysts estimate. This is at least 3 percentage points higher than The Wall Street Journal consensus forecast of a 2.6% increase in the economic activity. In 2015, domestically, capacity is going to be up 5%, 6% this year, said Scott Kirby, president of American Airlines, in May. GDP is going to grow much less than that [and] industry RASM [revenue per available seat mile] is going to be down, even domestically I think most people define capacity discipline as supply aligned with demand it s not aligned in Industry passenger revenue per available seat mile is expected to slip about 5% as a result of this mismatch in the second quarter. American forecasts a 6% to 8% drop in PRASM, Delta a 4% to 5% decrease and United a 5% to 6% fall compared with the same period a year ago. The mismatch came as a bit of a surprise. I think the fact is that we were all somewhat surprised with the economic performance in the first quarter with a negative 0.7% GDP print, said Delta president Ed Bastian at the start of June. The slowdown in economic activity has impacted close-in business bookings, he adds. DEMANDING ATTENTION United has seen a similar drop in demand related to the slower economic growth, its chief financial officer John Rainey said in June. In addition, the global drop in oil prices has proven to be a double-edged sword for the Star Alliance carrier as oil and gas industry bookings have dropped about 20%. Southwest Airlines chief executive Gary Kelly says the carrier will stick to 7% capacity growth this year and plans to cap its growth next year at 6%. The move was welcomed by analysts who had attributed much of the domestic US capacity creep this year to the Southwest the largest airline in the market. Southwest is not along in tempering its capacity plans. But more cuts may still be needed. While airlines are trimming capacity growth, it remains well above the consensus estimate for US economic growth. Growth generally is still too high, says Hunter Keay, an analyst at Wolfe Research. However, our sense is that Q2 will mark the peak for capacity and the trough for PRASM. 30 Airline Business July-August 2015 EUROPE 2014 SNAPSHOT Revenues: $194bn Net profits: $2.1bn Operating profits: $5.9bn Star performer: IAG profits topped $1.3 billion at both operating and net levels, and all three of its carriers were in the black Work in progress: Air France-KLM finished 2014 in the red, ameded plans for pan-european Transavia operation and faces more work to implement labour savings target Challenges: Industrial action has already impacted several carriers and further labour challenges await; region could face new round of economic uncertainty in the eurozone as Greek debt crisis resurfaces level in 2014, and nearly half of leading European carriers made a net loss. The picture in Europe includes thriving network carrier IAG where even long-struggling Iberia made a return to profit a distinctly mixed picture at Lufthansa and further losses at Air France-KLM. Fortunes too are mixed among Europe s second tier network operators, which largely remain in restructuring and cost-cutting mode. Several, however, have secured key investment aimed at securing their long-term sustainability. TAP Portugal, after David Neeleman s Azul won the bidding in its recent privatisation, and IAG-bound Aer Lingus both appear to be in the process of joining the likes of Alitalia and Czech Airlines in securing fresh investors. Many others hope to follow suit. The latest is Slovenia s Adria Airways, whose privatisation was formally launched at the start of July. Still, the continued restructuring efforts at Air Berlin which remains loss-making more than three years after Etihad s investment illustrates that attracting an investor is not in itself a panacea for airline ills. Low-cost carriers in Europe are largely faring better. EasyJet and the revamped Ryanair are both profitably expanding, the latter seeing big gains after following EasyJet into more British Airways business-friendly operations. Vueling has remained profitable during its growth spurt, while Pegasus and Wizz Air both had successful market listings shortly after which Wizz joined its low-cost peers in placing a big longterm fleet deal, covering up to 200 Airbus A320neos during the recent Paris air show. Norwegian, which has faced additional costs and pain from the stalled approval for its ambitions to operate transatlantic flights through an Irish subsidiary, was the only one of the big European low-cost operators that was not profitable in One of the catalysts is a more rational market in Malaysia TONY FERNANDES Chief executive, AirAsia ASIAN ANGLE Operating profits reached $3.3 billion among leading Asia-Pacific carriers. While this is around $1 billion less than in the previous year, the figure is hugely distorted by the around $2 billion non-cash hit Qantas took in fleet write-downs. Likewise this dragged leading Asia-Pacific carriers to a small net loss in 2014, compared with a profit of over $2 billion in That hit related to restructuring at Qantas, which has successfully turned round its fortunes. The Oneworld carrier returned to the black in its first half and expects to post a profit in its financial year, which closed at the end of June. Its fellow hard-hit compatriot operator, Virgin Australia, also returned to profit in the first half. There were more strong profits at Japanese pair All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines, although another Japanese operator, Skymark Airlines, was forced into bankruptcy protection earlier this year. Chinese carriers too helped drive Asia profits in 2014, with a notable improvement at an operating level. But as with Europe, there have been mixed financial fortunes across Asia. The most high profile has been Malaysia Airlines, which has embarked on a major restructuring after a traumatic 2014 and the tragic loss of two Boeing 777s. New chief Christoph Mueller confirmed the scale of the restructuring which will cut around 30% of its 20,000 strong workforce at the start of June, describing the airline as technically bankrupt. The airline is hoping its restructuring will return it to profit by flightglobal.com/airlines

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9 WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS OVERVIEW But it was not alone in suffering. The political uncertainty during 2014 which damaged Thailand s key tourism industry hit Thai Airways hard and prompted another year of loss and another change in chief executive. Garuda Indonesia too endured a difficult year. The going was harder too for some of Asia s low-cost operators. Following heady growth from the likes of Tigerair, AirAsia and Lion Air, most of the region s budget carriers put the brakes on expansion in a bid to preserve yield and prevent an all-out bloodbath as seen in other markets. This has seen several carriers sell aircraft or defer planned deliveries. AirAsia profits slipped in 2014, though it improved profit in the first quarter of this year. One of the main catalysts is a more rational market in Malaysia, said chief executive Tony Fernandes in May. Airline operators in general are now a bit more disciplined in their capacity management, setting the stage for a better operating environment in But some of AirAsia s units struggled, most notably long-haul operation AirAsia X, which racked up heavy losses in 2014 and saw the departure of long-serving chief executive Azran Osman-Rani. The jockeying for position in the developing low-cost markets through joint venture carriers from both established budget brands and the network carriers continues We have to balance short-term problems versus sustainability CARSTEN SPOHR Chief executive, Lufthansa with mixed success. While some have established themselves, others have failed or had false dawns, or in the case of still-blocked Qantas-China Eastern joint venture Jetstar Hong Kong, are still waiting for dawn. LATIN LIMPING Latin American carriers posted solid profits in 2014 at an operating level, but were at virtual breakeven at a net level after currency and fuel hedging losses at LATAM and Gol were factored in. Gol s challenges last year marked its fourth consecutive net loss have been compounded by Brazilian economic difficulties. But as Brazil is Latin America s largest market, it has wider impact across the region. The challenges in Brazil surpass those in other Latin American economies, which com- 32 Airline Business July-August 2015 EUROPEAN HARD LABOUR As European network carriers continue their restructuring efforts, labour relations for many are coming under further pressure. Some have come through the pain. Lufthansa unit Austrian for example last autumn reached settlement with employee representatives, following an acrimonious dispute since 2012, when Austrian transferred all flying staff members to its lower-cost regional unit Tyrolean Airways. Its parent Lufthansa say the restructuring should create significant savings from next year. Aer Lingus too hopes to secure planned cost-efficiences after resolving its long-running pensions dispute with unions. Others though continue to face pressure with labour, whether it be in securing new labour terms or through industrial action. TESTING TIMES Lufthansa continues to face some of the most testing labour relations as it attempts to reach terms for new collective labour deals. What we have to do is balance short-term problems for our customer, for our operations, for our image, versus long-term sustainability of our structure, chief executive Carsten Spohr told Airline Business last October, as the carrier battled a run of pilot stoppages. It is necessary to make these restructurings. I think there is no room for wrong compromises. Its pilots have just broken off a temproary truce after arbitration failed to broker a deal in the long-running dispute. Meanwhile a strike threat from its cabin crew, has been put on ice, as talks on a new deal continue. Lufthansa too has identified a pensions issue and is calling on unions to accept urgent changes to its company pension scheme as low interest rates inflate the existing system s deficit. More urgently than ever, we need sustainably financeable solutions in place of obsolete [pension] structures. We can only achieve this together with our collective bargaining partners, says its finance chief Simone Menne. Air France-KLM has also faced its share of labour pain. Having been forced to drop plans for a pan-european Transavia operation to put an end to a damaging pilots strike last year, its frustrations are growing in its attempts to secure the labour cost savings envisaged under its Perform 2020 programme. Not that their low-cost rivals have not suffered. Norwegian was hit by a pilots strike in March, while Ryanair has dropped it news Copenhagen base after a Danish court ruling allowed local unions to call industrial action. flightglobal.com/airlines

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11 WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS OVERVIEW Other markets are soft, but in Brazil we are seeing the biggest impact PEDRO HEILBRON Chief executive, Copa Airlines bined have led to largely lacklustre showings by the region s carriers in the first quarter. Latin American airline group Avianca saw weakness in its domestic Colombian market, with chief executive Fabio Villegas calling the market conditions very challenging. Domestic traffic growth in Ecuador and Peru where Avianca operates carriers failed to outpace capacity growth in the first quarter. IATA in its June forecast scaled back its projections for Latin American carrier profits in While the $600 million profit Latin American carriers are set to make this year is an improvement on the breakeven performance of 2014, it is almost half the level IATA was projecting six months ago. Latin America is a fascinating region of many contrasts, says IATA chief economist Brian Pearce. There are some growth hotspots, economies like Colombia and Chile are doing really well, but Brazil is such an impor- ASIA-PACIFIC 2014 SNAPSHOT Revenues: $197bn Net loss: $58m Operating profits: $3.3bn Star performer: Japan Airlines its profit run continues unabated since bankruptcy restructuring, making it the region s most profitable carrier in 2014 Work in progress: Malaysia Airlines after tumultuous and tragic 2014, the revamped carrier has begun work on massive restructuring programme Challenges: Cargo yields continue to struggle; overcapacity in some markets has hit yields; weakness in Chinese economy would hit wider region s fortunes Boeing tant economy that it is affecting performance. That clearly will affect the performance of airlines that are exposed to that market. Latin America s airlines also continued to bear the burden of the hold-up in revenues in Venezuela, which has yet to repatriate $3.7 billion owed to foreign airlines. Airlines have mostly stopped selling tickets in bolivares to minimise the build-up of the depreciated currency in the South American country, and have been working to spend their bolivares at their Venezuelan operations. GLOBAL GULF The big Gulf carriers continue to dominate the global landscape. It means interest in the financial performance of Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, engulfed in a very public row over subsidies with the big three US majors, is keener than ever. Emirates Group lifted operating profits by nearly $500 million in the last year to top $1.8 billion. The newer Etihad Airways pointed to another year in the black with improved operating and net profits. While Qatar Airways has not formally released its financial results, its chief executive Akbar Al Baker told the Wall Street Journal in June that the airline made a profit of just over $100 million in its BRAZIL WOES DRAG LATIN RESULTS Continued weakness in Latin America s biggest market of Brazil will likely keep the region s chief executives awake in the coming months, although some are holding out hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel. We are looking at slow growth in the economy in Brazil, LATAM Airlines Group s chief executive Enrique Cueto told Airline Business on the sidelines of the recent IATA AGM in Miami. Slow growth could perhaps be an understatement, with Brazil announcing even more bad news in the last month. Its central bank in late June said GDP for 2015 is expected to fall 1.1% in 2015 widening from the previously forecast 0.5% drop. YIELDING CHANGE The economic weakness in the country has impacted airline yields as corporate travellers stay home. LATAM s Brazilian subsidiary TAM saw corporate travel demand decline right from around the time of last summer s football World Cup in Brazil, and the level has yet to recover. TAM s chief executive Claudia Sender said in May that the airline expects corporate demand to pick up in the second half of 2015, but also acknowledged it is not clear when this might be. Gol chief executive Paulo Kakinoff, however, believes that the decline might have bottomed out. We can t go worse than we are right now, he said in May. Both TAM and Gol Brazil s two biggest carriers plan to keep domestic capacity flat this year. Other carriers have taken action to slash supply in the country. Panama s Copa Airlines is cutting capacity to Brazil by about 4% in the second half of 2015, which will reverse all the new capacity the carrier added a year ago. Brazil is the weakest right now, says Copa Airlines chief executive Pedro Heilbron. Copa has about a fifth of its capacity in Brazil. In the first quarter, Copa s yields in Brazil fell 15%. Other markets are soft but in Brazil, by far, we are seeing the biggest impact, Heilbron had said in May. A significantly depreciated Brazilian real has hit the region s bottom lines hard. Both TAM and Gol each sustained hundreds of millions in foreign exchange losses. Gol sustained a first quarter net loss of R673 million ($215 million), making it the worst performer among its peers in the Latin American region. Kakinoff said the airline would have been profitable but for the foreign exchange losses. The weakness in Brazil s macroeconomic environment has led to uncertainty over the country s regional aviation ambitions. Brazil has in recent years championed plans to subsidise airlines for the purchase of regional aircraft to grow the vast country s regional network a move that has led to both TAM and Gol expressing interest in regional jets. But Brazil s airline chiefs recently expressed doubt that the government already struggling with a budget deficit will dole out such incentives to the carriers and appear to have put their plans on hold. There is no way to come up with the subsidies, said Avianca Brazil s owner German Efromovich in June. 34 Airline Business July-August 2015 flightglobal.com/airlines

12 last financial year. This does little to change the ongoing arguments, as the big Gulf carriers point to profitable operations and sceptics ask for more transparency. But what is not in doubt is the rate of growth of all three carriers, demonstrated again by another sharp rise in passenger numbers in Emirates carried almost 50 million passengers last year, an increase of 10%; Qatar flew 15% more at 22 million, and Etihad increased passenger numbers by more than a fifth to over 15 million. All three now rank in the 25 biggest carriers by RPKs. While the Gulf carriers take the spotlight, efforts to turn around losses in the region continue. Royal Jordanian, which cited political unrest as a contributing factor to deeper losses in 2014, managed to cut its first quarter losses. While full figures are not available for Gulf Air, ministers have said its losses were cut in 2014 and will be again this year. Oman Air sees growth and economies of scale as key to its path to profitability by It remains a difficult market in North Africa. Attempts to rebuild tourism activity in the region after the unrest that followed the Arab Spring continue to be hit by security setbacks, evident again in Tunisia recently. Royal Air Maroc appears best set of the local carriers, having already had to adjust to increased competition through open skies with Europe. The carrier, which took delivery of its first Boeing 787 earlier this year, was on All we have done is put SAA back on track with its long-term turnaround NICO BEZUIDENHOUT Acting CEO, South African Airways course to generate operating profits in 2014 on a similar level to the DM789 million ($80 million) it recorded in Elsewhere in Africa it remains challenging for local carriers, not helped by regional unrest in some parts and the fallout from the damaging ebola outbreak. Ethiopian Airlines is continuing to expand profitably, but South African Airways and Kenya Airways, find themselves battling for profitability. For SAA and Nico Bezuidenhout who is reprising his acting chief executive role after more boardroom tensions - this is familiar territory. He has successfully implemented a 90-day action plan which has helped to secure shareholding backing, The wide-rang- ASIA SUFFERS FROM CARGO HOLDS China Airlines knows what it s like to be a victim of the cargo slump. Over the last four years, the carrier recorded annual cargo losses of NT$4-5 billion ($ million), a major blow since cargo accounts for 30% of its total revenue. But the Taiwanese airline believes the worst is over, and things are finally looking up for the cargo sector. This year s cargo market will be better than last year s, China Airlines chairman Huang-Hsiang Sun says. Over the first four months of 2015, the carrier s cargo revenue grew 10.7%. Traffic outpaced the 6% extra capacity, resulting in a two point climb in load factor. Yields, however, saw a mere 1% uptick. FREIGHT FREEZE China Airlines has not been alone. While passenger traffic have recovered since the 2009 global financial crisis, air cargo traffic has remained in the doldrums over the last four years. Asia-Pacific carriers, accounting for about 40% of the global air cargo market, have been disproportionately impacted by the sector s weakness. IATA believes there will be continued downward pressure on yields in 2015, but this will be mitigated by lower jet fuel prices helping to improved cargo profitability. Andrew Herdman, director general of the Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines says, there is some optimism since growth in cargo volumes has sustained from 2014 through to 2015, despite the slower economic growth in Asia and concerns about the global economy. That s reasonably positive, he says. Cargo volumes may pick up, but when will cargo revenues pick up and when will freighters become profitable again? Herdman adds latent capacity overhangs the market, and that even as cargo volumes pick up, operators will pump capacity back in, ing plan included a raft of cost-savings intiativs and an overhual of it network. He says: All that we have done is to put SAA back on track with its long-term turnaround strategy. For Kenya Airways, which had enjoyed a sustained run of profits, losses of recent years are less familiar. The SkyTeam carrier is still to publish its 2014 results, but indicated at the halfway point that a very challenging business environment over the first six which will only keep rates competitive. China Airlines, for example, has three Boeing Fs parked in Californian deserts, but will return one of these to service in August. Should demand pick up further, the SkyTeam carrier will reactivate the other two. Flightglobal s Ascend Fleets database shows that Asia-Pacific carriers have 25 widebody freighters in storage. IATA expects capacity discipline to remain a challenge in 2015, where for every 1t of hull capacity added by a widebody freighter, 3t will be added by widebody passenger aircraft. In its first quarter overview of the cargo industry, IATA said overcapacity has resulted in lower load factors and downward pressure on yields. It does not expect lower fuel prices to have any lasting impact on cargo profitability. SIA Cargo attributed the narrowing of its operating loss to S$22 million last year to a moderate recovery in air cargo demand and diligent capacity management. We certainly are seeing a general pick-up in demand, however the yields are somewhat challenged, says Ng Chin Hwee, chairman of SIA Cargo. He explains that there is currently a lot of excess capacity, and airlines, seeing the benefits of low fuel prices, are also putting more aircraft out into the market. Ascend s head of market analysis Chris Seymour points to some swings in cargo traffic at Asian airlines and airports so far in 2015, linked to the Chinese new year, US port strike, end of quarter manufacturing rush and issues with eurozone and currency depreciation. So an overall cautious picture at the moment for 2015, he says. Looking ahead, IATA says the robust trend for Asia-Pacific cargo could come under pressure from weakness in regional trade volumes, which appears to be reversing after strong gains in late months of the year, continuing from last year, would mean another year of losses. Meanwhile, emerging pan-african lowcost carriers, the most high profile of which is Fastjet, are making slow progress in rolling out their model across different countries. For more details on airline 2014 financial results visit flightglobal.com/dashboard flightglobal.com/airlines July-August 2015 Airline Business 35

13 WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS BY FLIGHTGLOBAL INSIGHT DATA COMPILED BY SILVA ISHAK FLIGHTGLOBAL DATA RESEARCH TOP AIRLINE GROUPS BY REVENUE TOP AIRLINE GROUPS RANKED BY REVENUES 2014: 1 TO 50 Ranking Group/Airline Country Revenues Change (%) Operating result ($m) Operating margin (%) 2014 (2013) ($m) Local In US$ (1) American Airlines Group USA 42, ,249 2, (4) Delta Air Lines USA 40, ,206 3, (2) Lufthansa Group Germany 39, , (3) United-Continental Holdings USA 38, ,373 1, (5) Air France-KLM Group France 32, (6) FedEx USA 27, ,584 1, (7) IAG UK 26, , (8) Emirates Group UAE 26, ,878 1, (9) Southwest Airlines USA 18, ,225 1, (11) China Southern Air Holding China 17, (12) Air China China 17, , (13) ANA Group Japan 15, (14) China Eastern Airlines China 15, (10) Qantas Group Australia 14, , (17) Cathay Pacific Group Hong Kong 13, (15) LATAM Airlines Group Chile 12, (16) Japan Airlines Japan 12, ,622 1, (18) Singapore Airlines Group Singapore 12, (19) Air Canada Canada 11, (21) Turkish Airlines Turkey 11, (20) Korean Air South Korea 11, (23) Qatar Airways Group Qatar 9, (22) Aeroflot Russia 8, (28) Etihad Airways UAE 7, (26) EasyJet UK 7, (25) Ryanair Ireland 7, , (24) Thai Airways International Thailand 5, (32) Hainan Airlines Group China 5, (31) JetBlue Airways USA 5, (29) UPS Airlines USA 5, (33) Saudia est Saudi Arabia 5, (27) SAS Group Sweden 5, (34) Asiana Airlines South Korea 5, (30) Air Berlin Germany 5, (35) Alaska Air Group USA 5, (37) Virgin Group UK 4, (38) Avianca Holdings Colombia 4, (40) China Airlines Taiwan 4, (36) Malaysia Airlines Malaysia 4, (41) Gol Transportes Aereos Brazil 4, (39) Alitalia est Italy 4, (44) Garuda Indonesia Indonesia 3, (42) Virgin Australia Australia 3, (43) Air New Zealand Group New Zealand 3, (45) EVA Air Taiwan 3, (47) WestJet Canada 3, (50) Air India est India 3, (55) Jet Airways India 3, (46) TAP Portugal Portugal 3, (49) SkyWest, Inc USA 3, NOTES: est Airline Business estimates used where full-year figures are unavailable to give an indication of the airline s revenue ranking. See P38 for methodology 36 Airline Business July-August 2015 flightglobal.com/airlines

14 Net result ($m) Net margin (%) Mainline operating revenues (%) Period Notes Passenger share Cargo share to end: 2,882-1, Dec , Dec Dec 14 1, Dec , Dec May 15 FedEx Express segment 1, Dec 14 Includes Vueling since 26 April ,487 1, Mar 15 1, Dec Dec Dec Mar Dec 14-2, Jun Dec Dec 14 1,345 1, Mar Mar Dec Dec Dec Mar Dec Dec Sep 14 1, Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec 14 Dec 14 Airline Business estimate Oct Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sep Dec Dec 14 Airline Business estimate Dec Jun 14 Includes Virgin Australia Regional, formerly Skywest Jun Dec Dec Mar 15 Airline Business estimate Mar Dec Dec 14 flightglobal.com/airlines July-August 2015 Airline Business 37

15 WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS FINANCIAL TOP AIRLINE GROUPS RANKED BY REVENUES 2014: 51 TO 100 Ranking Group/Airline Country Revenues Change (%) Op result ($m) Op margin (%) Net result ($m) Period Notes 2014 (2013) $ million In US$ to end: 51 (52) Grupo Aeromexico Mexico 3, Dec (53) Thomson Airways UK 3, Sep (56) Norwegian Norway 3, Dec (51) Finnair Finland 3, Dec (48) Transaero Airlines Russia 2, Dec (58) Sichuan Airlines China 2, Dec (57) Copa Holdings Panama 2, Dec (54) South African Airways est South Africa 2, Mar 15 Airline Business estimate 58 (59) Vietnam Airlines est Vietnam 2, Dec 14 Airline Business estimate 60 (64) Ethiopian Airlines Ethiopia 2, Jun (60) Azul est Brazil 2, Dec 14 Airline Business estimate 62 (66) IndiGo est India 2, Mar 15 Airline Business estimate 63 (67) Air Europa Spain 2, Oct (63) Hawaiian Airlines USA 2, Dec (61) Air Transat est Canada 2, Oct 14 Airline Business estimate 66 (75) Philippine Airlines Philippines 2, Dec (68) Condor Germany 2, Sep (70) Cargolux Luxembourg 2, Dec (65) El Al Israel 2, Dec (73) Aer Lingus Ireland 2, Dec (69) Aerolineas Argentinas est Argentina 2, Dec 14 Airline Business estimate 72 (71) Egyptair est Egypt 1, Jun 14 Airline Business estimate 73 (79) Spirit Airlines USA 1, Dec (74) Shangong Airlines China 1, Dec 14 =75 (77) Thomas Cook Airlines est UK 1, Sep 14 Airline Business estimate =75 (83) Royal Air Maroc Morocco 1, Oct (78) Atlas Air Worldwide USA 1, Dec (62) UTair Group Russia 1, Dec (72) S7 Airlines Russia 1, Dec (76) AirAsia Malaysia 1, Dec (82) Lion Air est Indonesia 1, Dec 14 Airline Business estimate 82 (85) SunExpress Turkey 1, Dec (80) Volga-Dnepr Group Russia 1, Dec 14 =84 (84) Brussels Airlines est1 Belgium 1, Dec 14 Revenue is estimated =84 (88) Frontier Airlines USA 1, Dec 14 US DOT 86 (87) Wizz Air Hungary 1, Mar (81) Jazz Canada 1, Dec (86) Virgin America USA 1, Dec (90) Pegasus Turkey 1, Dec (89) Republic Airways Holdings USA 1, Dec (92) Monarch Airlines est UK 1, Oct 14 Airline Business estimate 92 (98) Tianjin Airlines China 1, Dec (91) Kenya Airways est Kenya 1, Mar 15 Airline Business estimate 94 (93) Aegean Airlines Group * Greece 1, Dec proforma 95 (102) Flydubai UAE 1, Dec (96) Spring Airlines China 1, Dec (109) Cebu Pacific Air Philippines 1, Dec (104) Allegiant Air USA 1, Dec 14 =99 (99) Jet2 est UK 1, Mar 15 Airline Business estimate =99 (95) Pakistan Int l Airlines Pakistan 1, Dec 14 NOTE: est Airline Business estimates have been used where full-year figures are unavailable to give an indication of the airline s revenue ranking. Volga Dnepr includes AirBridge Cargo and ATRAN; Republic sold Frontier Airlines to Indigo Partners in December 2013; Aegean includes Olympic Air on a pro-forma basis; NOTES: Revenues are consolidated figures for groups, including contributions from subsidiaries and non-airline operations. However, for broad freight or travel operations, results have been given for the airline division only. All revenues are translated into US$ at the average annual rate for the given financial year. Where there has been strong movement between local currency and the US dollar there is a big difference in the change figure; Operating result is generally taken as the profit or loss from operations after normal expenses including depreciation, but before finance charges, exceptional items and tax. Net result is after all costs and exceptional items and contributions from subsidiaries. In some cases these may include sizeable gains or losses from exceptional items; Operating and net margins show profits or losses as a percentage of revenues allowing comparisons between the performance of different groups. However, differences in national accounting standards mean that direct comparisons should be handled with caution; Results are over the latest financial year to the end of the month shown. Returns from mid-year onwards have been included where there are no later figures; Most results have been taken from reports published by the airline groups. Other sources include returns to regulatory bodies, such as ICAO or national civil aviation bodies, press statements and other published reports. Estimates based on analysis of historical traffic, financial and fleet data, and regional trends have been made for carriers where no figures are available. 38 Airline Business July-August 2015 flightglobal.com/airlines

16 WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS TRAFFIC ANALYSIS BY FLIGHTGLOBAL INSIGHT DATA COMPILED BY SILVA ISHAK FLIGHTGLOBAL DATA RESEARCH Airlines keep steady traffic pace Global passenger traffic among the 150 leading carriers increased 6% in 2014, the latest Airline Business World Airline Rankings show. This was slightly ahead of the capacity added and helped lift collective load factors to 80.5% North America 3.0% Delta Air Lines United Airlines American Airlines Southwest Airlines US Airways Air Canada Europe 6.3% British Airways Air France Ryanair Lufthansa KLM EasyJet Aeroflot Turkish Airlines Emirates Qatar Airways Etihad Airways Air China Cathay Pacific Singapore Airlines China Southern China Eastern Qantas All Nippon Airways Korean Air Latin America 5.0% Africa 2.0% Middle East 11.5% Asia- Pacific 17.0% Regional traffic changes are based on RPKs for the top 150 airlines KEY Star Alliance SkyTeam Oneworld Unaligned TOP 150 PASSENGER AIRLINE STATISTICS BY AIRLINE TYPE: 2014 Airline Type Passenger traffic (RPK) Load factors Passenger numbers Employee Million Change (%) Percent Pt change Million Change (%) share (%) Leisure 219, Low-cost 992, Mainline 4,606, , Regional 97, TOTAL 5,915, , NOTE: Based on returns to the latest Top 150 airlines ranking TOP 150 PASSENGER AIRLINE STATISTICS BY REGION: 2014 Region Passenger traffic (RPK) Load factors Passenger numbers Employee Million Change (%) Percent Pt change Million Change (%) share (%) Africa 104, Asia Pacific 1,765, Europe 1,694, Latin America 285, Middle East 528, North America 1,536, TOTAL 5,915, , NOTE: Based on returns to the latest Top 150 airlines ranking TOP 20 AIRLINE GROUPS BY TRAFFIC Rank Airline group RPK (m) 1 Delta Air Lines 326,465 2 American Airlines Group 314,802 3 United-Continental Holdings 288,036 4 Emirates Airline 235,498 5 Air France-KLM Group 229,347 6 Lufthansa Group 214,641 7 IAG 202,562 8 Southwest Airlines 173,829 9 China Southern Airlines Group 166, Air China 154, China Eastern Airlines 127, Ryanair 120, Cathay Pacific Group 112, Qantas Group 109, LATAM Airlines Group 108, Turkish Airlines 106, Singapore Airlines Group 99, Air Canada 99, Aeroflot 90, Qatar Airways 95,977 flightglobal.com/airlines July-August 2015 Airline Business 39

17 WORLD AIRLINE RANKINGS TRAFFIC ANALYSIS BY FLIGHTGLOBAL INSIGHT DATA COMPILED BY SILVA ISHAK FLIGHTGLOBAL DATA RESEARCH TOP 150 PASSENGER OPERATIONS TOP PASSENGER OPERATIONS RANKED BY TRAFFIC 2014: 1 TO 50 Ranking Airline Country Passenger traffic (RPK) Seat capacity (ASK) Load factor Passenger number Fleet 2014 (2013) Million Change (%) Million Change (%) Percent Pt change Million Change (%) Current 1 (1) Delta Air Lines USA 326, , (2) United Airlines USA 288, , (3) Emirates Airline UAE 235, , (4) American Airlines USA 208, , (5) Southwest Airlines USA 173, , (6) Lufthansa Germany 156, , (8) British Airways UK 138, , (9) China Southern Airlines China 135, , (7) Air France est France 134, , (10) China Eastern Airlines China 127, , (13) Ryanair est Ireland 120, , (12) Air China China 112, , (16) Turkish Airlines Turkey 106, , (11) US Airways USA 106, , (15) Cathay Pacific Hong Kong 100, , (17) Air Canada Canada 99, , (19) Qatar Airways Qatar 95, , (14) Singapore Airlines Singapore 94, , (18) KLM Netherlands 91, , (21) All Nippon Airways Japan 74, , (23) EasyJet UK 72, , (20) Qantas Australia 71, , (28) Etihad Airways UAE 68, , (22) Korean Air South Korea 67, , (25) Aeroflot Russia 67, , (27) JetBlue Airways USA 60, , (26) TAM Linhas Aereas Brazil 60, , (24) Thai Airways International Thailand 56, , (29) Japan Airlines Japan 52, , (32) Saudia Saudi Arabia 51, , (30) Air Berlin Germany 49, , (34) LAN Airlines est1 Chile 48, , (33) Transaero Airlines Russia 47, , (31) Malaysia Airlines Malaysia 46, , (43) Hainan Airlines China 45, , (35) Alaska Airlines USA 44, , (36) Iberia Spain 42, , (40) Shenzhen Airlines China 38, , (41) Gol Transportes Aereos Brazil 38, , (37) Virgin Atlantic Airways UK 37, , (59) Norwegian Norway 37, , (42) China Airlines Taiwan 35, , (39) Swiss Switzerland 35, , (45) Asiana Airlines South Korea 35, , (44) Air India India 35, , (46) SAS Sweden 34, , (38) Alitalia est Italy 34, , (52) Jet Airways India 34, , (48) WestJet Canada 33, , (49) Virgin Australia Australia 33, , NOTES: est RPK/ASK/load factor estimated based on full-year passenger data; est1 Airline Business estimate; American Airlines includes US Airways Fleet; Air Berlin includes Niki; Virgin Australia 2013 figure includes SkyWest Australia for May and June only; Avianca includes TACA; SAS does not include Wideroe; China Eastern includes Shanghai Airlines; Air China includes Dalian 40 Airline Business July-August 2015 flightglobal.com/airlines

18 TOP PASSENGER OPERATIONS RANKED BY TRAFFIC 2014: 51 TO 100 Ranking Airline Country Passenger traffic (RPK) Seat capacity (ASK) Load factor Passenger number Fleet 2014 (2013) Million Change (%) Million Change (%) Percent Pt change Million Change (%) Current 51 (50) Avianca Colombia 32, , (47) Thomson Airways UK 31, , (60) Sichuan Airlines China 31, , (51) Lion Air est Indonesia 31, , (57) EVA Air Taiwan 30, , (55) Garuda Indonesia Indonesia 30, , (54) TAP Portugal Portugal 30, , (63) Grupo Aeromexico Mexico 28, , (53) Jetstar Australia 28, , (56) Air New Zealand New Zealand 28, , (66) Xiamen Airlines China 27, , (61) AirAsia Malaysia 27, , (62) Vietnam Airlines est1 Vietnam 26, , (70) IndiGo India 26, , (65) Condor Germany 25, , (58) ExpressJet Airlines USA 25, , (68) Copa Airlines Panama 25, , (72) Wizz Air Hungary 25, , (67) SkyWest Airlines USA 24, , (78) Philippine Airlines Philippines 24, , (64) Finnair Finland 24, , (76) Spirit Airlines USA 22, , (71) Hawaiian Airlines USA 22, , (69) South African Airways South Africa 22, , (73) Ethiopian Airlines Ethiopia 22, , (75) Air Europa Spain 21, , (82) Vueling Airlines Spain 21, , (88) AirAsia X Malaysia 20, , (74) Thomas Cook Airlines UK 20, , (83) UTair Russia 20, , (85) Pegasus est Turkey 19, , (79) El Al Israel 18, , (80) TUIfly est Germany 18, , (81) Austrian Austria 18, , (77) Egyptair Egypt 18, , (84) Spring Airlines China 18, , (87) Frontier Airlines USA 17, , (90) Shandong Airlines China 17, , (86) Air Transat est1 Canada 17, , (100) Cebu Pacific Air Philippines 16, , (89) Virgin America USA 16, , (93) Aer Lingus Ireland 16, , (92) Azul Brazil 15, , (91) Monarch Airlines UK 15, , (95) Volaris Mexico 15, , (96) S7 Airlines Russia 15, , (97) Transavia Airlines est Netherlands 14, , (107) Capital Airlines China 13, , (103) Air Arabia UAE 13, , (99) Nordwind Airlines Russia 13, , NOTES: est RPK/ASK/load factor estimated based on full-year passenger data; est1 Airline Business estimate; Lion Air passenger number reported locally; Cebu Pacific includes Tigerair Phillipines since July 2014 flightglobal.com/airlines July-August 2015 Airline Business 41

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