Uncertainty in Airport Planning Prof. Richard de Neufville
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1 Uncertainty in Airport Planning Prof. Richard de Neufville Istanbul Technical University Air Transportation Management M.Sc. Program Airport Planning and Management / RdN Airport Planning and Management Module 06 January 2016
2 Objective of Presentation To demonstrate that: The Forecast is always Wrong in the sense that what actually occurs differs substantially from what had been forecast earlier This is due to all kinds of different special events and trend breakers that constantly arise
3 Outline of Presentation Empirical Evidence of the Forecast is always Wrong Estimation of Costs Forecasts of Prices FAA Analysis of their forecasts Worldwide examples Reflection on Reasons for Forecast is always Wrong
4 Estimation of Costs Three cases: 1.Simplest possible estimate of costs repaving of runway 2.Industry-wide variance between estimates in advance and actual costs 3.Variability of Jet Fuel Prices
5 Let s look at simplest case Simplest possible technology: asphalt paving of existing runways long flat surfaces with everything visible Simple issue: Cost estimation straightforward Sample of 59 cases of US airports, comparing estimated cost with actual cost, adjusted for inflation according to construction price index. RESULTS OFF IN RANGE OF A FACTOR OF 2!
6 Percent of Occurrences Ratio of Real Costs to Estimated Costs for Airport Projects 15 Costs expressed in constant dollars Median ~= Real/Estimated Cost Ratio
7 Estimation of Costs Let s think a moment about why the estimates were so far from actual costs What could be the causes?
8 News report Cost of asphalt rising Local road repairs are likely to lag By Kay Lazar, Globe Correspondent June 8, The soaring cost of petroleum -- a primary ingredient of asphalt -- has forced many communities to shoulder a 50 percent increase in costs as crews head out to repave roads this summer. Asphalt sticker shock is creating heartburn for legions of highway chiefs, prompting many to significantly curtail the number of roads they intend to repair this season. And the going may get even tougher. Two major asphalt suppliers for the region are warning of another 50 percent increase by Thanksgiving -- in addition to potential shortages
9 Ratio of Actual to Estimated Cost Cost Growth for Various Projects DOD60 HWAY WATER BLDNG DOD50 ADHOC MAJOR ENRGY NASA NASA AVG St.Dev. CONST SAT m g
10 Ratio of Actual to Estimated Cost NASA Projects Cost Growth HST GLL UARS GRO COBE MGL MOBS LSAT EUVE ERBE AVG St.Dev.
11 Forecasts of Prices Three cases: 1. Copper Prices by Chilean experts 2. Price of Crude Oil 3. Variability of Jet Fuel Prices You can replicate such charts yourself by searching web
12 cusd/(cu-pound) World Copper Prices Range estimated by COCHILCO COCHILCO Expected Value (first trimestre of the previous year) 200 Nominal Annual Copper Price reported by COCHILCO (11/10/2012) Year Source: J. Esteban Montero, 2012 Note: Jan = 225
13 Oil price forecasts Note: Jan = $31.40 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 Per Julia Kimmerly, 2012
14 Variability in Jet Fuel Prices Source:
15 FAA Analyses of Errors Several cases: 1. Friedman FAA FAA Aerospace Forecasts 2006, 2013 The extensive, publically available data of the FAA, a most professional group, enable us to appreciate the difficulty of making forecasts
16 Results of a study of TAF (Terminal Area Forecasts for US) Errors in 5 year TAF Cumulative Distribution Percent error (Absolute value) Adapted from: Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Accuracy Assessment Results Jerome Friedman, MITRE CAASD, Sept. 30, 2004
17 Results of a study of TAF Fregquency of Error (%) Errors in 5 year TAF Note: Average error ~ 11% Percent Error (Absolute value) Adapted from: Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Accuracy Assessment Results Jerome Friedman, MITRE CAASD. Study dated Sept. 30, 2004, but data until Deliberate omission of 2001, 2002 when traffic dropped enormously
18 Error Data from U.S Source: MITRE CAASD and FAA City 5 YEAR FORECAST FROM / TO ATL BOS BWI CLE CLT CVG DCA DEN DFW DTW EWR FLL HNL IAD IAH JFK
19 Error Data from U.S Source: MITRE CAASD and FAA City 5 YEAR FORECAST FROM / TO LAS LAX LGA MCO MDW MEM MIA MSP ORD PDX PHL PHX PIT SAN SEA SFO SLC STL TPA
20 Locid City Airport Name Preliminary CY08 Total Enplanements Forecast 2004 TAF in thousands % Difference CVG Cincinnati Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International 6,488, IAD Washington Washington Dulles International 11,287, MDW Chicago Chicago Midway International 8,019, MSP Minneapolis St. Paul Minneapolis-St Paul International/Wold-Chamberlain 16,352, BWI Baltimore Washington Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshal 10,206, HNL Honolulu Honolulu International 9,000, DTW Detroit Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County 16,993, LAX Los Angeles Los Angeles International 28,612, ORD Chicago Chicago O'Hare International 33,668, TPA Tampa Tampa International 8,869, BOS Boston General Edward Lawrence Logan International 12,784, LGA New York La Guardia 11,549, PHL Philadelphia Philadelphia International 15,577, PHX Phoenix Phoenix Sky Harbor International 19,433, FLL Fort Lauderdale Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International 11,018, SLC Salt Lake City Salt Lake City International 9,889, MCO Orlando Orlando International 17,271, STL St. Louis Lambert-St Louis International 6,644, ATL Atlanta Hartsfield - Jackson Atlanta International 43,737, DFW Dallas/Ft.Worth Dallas/Fort Worth International 27,206, LAS Las Vegas McCarran International 21,011, SAN San Diego San Diego International 9,007, SFO San Francisco San Francisco International 18,101, IAH Houston George Bush Intercontinental/Houston 19,850, EWR New York Newark Liberty International 17,578, PDX Portland Portland International 7,073, SEA Seattle Seattle-Tacoma International 15,815, DCA Washington Ronald Reagan Washington National 8,692, JFK New York John F Kennedy International 23,601, DEN Denver Denver International 24,266, MIA Miami Miami International 16,369, CLT Charlotte Charlotte/Douglas International 17,271, Actual 2008 traffic compared to that forecast in 2004 TAF Source: US FAA Sum Average Sum Absolute Average Absolute 15.9
21 Actual vs. Forecast 10 years earlier Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY Domestic Commercial Emplanements Year being forecast Actual vs. Forecast Median and Average 12.5 Note: These are aggregate data, in which greater local variations tend to cancel each other out
22 Older FAA Forecasts vs. Actual Data (% Difference) Forecast Year For Year Commercial Enplnmnts. Revenue Pax. Miles Hrs. General Aviation GA Ops at FAA Towers Tot. Ops at FAA Towers (1.30) (6.50) (0.60) (9.50) (9.70) (1.20) (27.80) (21.60) (27.50) (26.00) (15.30) (37.70) (28.90) (32.10) (31.40) (23.60) (34.70) (27.30) (41.30) (41.30) * (38.40) (32.50) (31.40) (33.60) (23.50) (27.30) (24.90) (14.10) (19.80) (16.30) (2.60) (5.20) (1.60) (0.60) (0.60) (6.80) (10.40) (9.70) (7.40) (13.70) (10.60) (17.30) (0.20) (1.80) Review of the FAA 1982 National Airspace System Plan
23 Available, Revenue Seat- Miles Note: Large AVERAGE errors in 5 years Some actual errors much greater! FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years aerospace_forecasts/media/2013_forecast.pdf
24 Worldwide Airport Forecasts Four cases: 1. Japan International Traffic 2. Sydney Passenger Traffic 3. Miami Area Passenger Forecasts 4. US General Aviation Forecasts
25 Forecast vs. Actual International Pax in Japan Forecast Passengers (million) Percent Error For Done In Actual Forecast Difference/Actual (13)
26 Forecast vs. Actual International Pax to Japan 450, , ,000 10,000 ton 300, , , , ,000 50, Year Actual Forecast
27 Notice the Pattern! Forecasting is an exercise in projecting past into future like steering car by looking into rear view mirror! Past low growth => under estimation Past high growth => over estimation Almost never right!
28 Forecast vs Actual International Pax in Sydney Forecast For Year Source of Forecast, in Year Consultant Regional Study National Ministry projected actual 10
29 Forecast vs. Actual Miami/International What Happened? Completely Missed Lack of Growth in International for Miami Underestimated Doubling of Domestic Traffic, in % above forecast for 2020
30 Growth of Domestic Traffic at Miami/Fort Lauderdale Traffic at Miami s other major airport (mostly domestic) grew by 150%: from 9 to 23.5 million passengers Largely due to Low Cost Carriers such as Southwest
31 ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1980 FORECAST ACTUAL 80 FCST. 400 NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT
32 ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1985 FORECAST 400 ACTUAL 80 FCST. 85 FCST. NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT
33 ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1990 FORECAST 400 ACTUAL 80 FCST. 85 FCST. 90 FCST. NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT
34 ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1998 FORECAST 400 ACTUAL 80 FCST. 85 FCST. 90 FCST. 98 FCST. NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT
35 Causes of Uncertainty Variability of phenomenon business cycles Difficulties in measurement transfer passengers Unpredictable circumstances or trend breakers airline mergers, hub closures, politics Limits to valid measurement Demand elasticity [which is what?]
36 Summary and Recommendations Summary Forecast Errors have been large Likely to continue Recommendations: Expensive Forecasting is cost-ineffective Use general trends...with large ranges Flexible Approach to Planning!!!
Uncertainty in Airport Planning Prof. Richard de Neufville
Uncertainty in Airport Planning Prof. Richard de Neufville Istanbul Technical University Air Transportation Management M.Sc. Program Airport Planning and Airport Planning and Management Module 06 January
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