Air Transportation OVERWEIGHT (Maintain)

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1 Industry Research 4 Apr 28 Air Transportation OVERWEIGHT (Maintain) Joshua Yang ( ) arbor@daishin.co.kr Growth in IIA s transportation indicators slows down in Mar Maintain OVERWEIGHT, TP adjusted downward Though we maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating for the airline industry, we are downwardly adjusting our TP s both for Korean Air and Asiana Airlines by 26% and 16.7% to W68, and W1,, respectively. This adjustment comes as we also downwardly revised the two airlines 1Q8, and 28 transport growth rates to factor in the slowdown in Incheon International Airport s (IIA) transportation indicators. Due to the revised RPK s and RTK s for international flights, we also made a downward adjustment in the two companies earnings forecasts. Outperformance (%) Sector index (%) 7 KOSPI KOSPI( (RHS) ) 2,5 6 2, 5 4 1, , IIA s 1Q8 transportation growth slows down On Apr 3, IIA announced its transportation performance for Mar to finish up the performance figures for 1Q8. Overall, 1Q8 s transportation performance showed a sharp decline in growth for both passengers and freight. Korean Air s 1Q8 IIA transportation indicators show that its flights increased by 3.5% yoy, while its international passengers and freight volume increased by 3.2% and 5.2% yoy, respectively. Meanwhile, Asiana Airlines reported a 9.1% yoy increase in flights, a 4.1% yoy increase in international passengers and a 16.5% yoy increase in its freight volume. The growth rate for international passengers fell short of our expectations for both of these airlines. Mar IIA transportation performance deteriorates significantly IIA s Mar transportation indicators fell far short of expectations. The overall growth of international passengers and the daily average passenger growth both recorded negative figures for the first time in 28 months. Likewise, the growth rates in international passengers for these two airlines also came in negative. We believe these indicators deteriorated due to the following: 1. Rising exchange rates, the economic slowdown, and higher airfares stemming from increased fuel surcharges. 2. A high comparison base (i.e. the growth rate was high in 1H7) 3. Reduced demand before the Apr general elections. Forecasts and valuations Sales OP Pre-tax profit NP EPS Chg. P/E P/B EV/EBITDA ROE Net D/E (Wbn) (Wbn) (Wbn) (Wbn) (W) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) 26A 11, , A 12, F 14, F 14,973 1, , F 15,86 1, , Source: operating performance based on KAL, Asiana Airlines data

2 1. Maintain OVERWEIGHT, downwardly adjust TP Downward adjustment to est. passenger and freight transportation growth Though we maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating for the air transportation industry, we are downwardly adjusting our TP s for both Korean Air Lines (KAL s) and Asiana Airlines by 26.% and 16.6% to W68, and W1,, respectively. This adjustment comes as we also downwardly revised the two airlines 1Q8F, and 28F transportation growth rates to factor in the 1Q8 slowdown in Incheon International Airport s (IIA) transportation indicators. In our view, passenger and freight growth is declining due to the global economic slowdown, the rising wondollar exchange rate and higher air fares stemming from increased fuel surcharges. As such, we have made a downward revision to both companies forecasted 28 transportation growth. We adjusted Korean Air s international RPK growth rate downward from 6% to 2.8%, and its RTK growth rate from 7% to 4.8%. Meanwhile, we also downwardly adjusted Asiana Airlines international RPK growth rate from 9.4% to 4.8%, and its RTK growth rate from 6.% to 3.7%. However, as the yield is rising on the back of additional fuel surcharges, we made an upward adjustment to the yield growth rates. KAL s revised earnings forecast (Wmn, %) Previous Revised Change (%) 1Q8F 28F 1Q8F 28F 1Q8F 28F Operating revenue 2,315,9 1,22,57 2,275,647 9,875, Operating expense 1,92,812 7,853,841 1,899,84 7,828, SG&A 337,276 1,462,56 337,276 1,462,56.. OP 74,922 76,16 39, , Airline business (1) Domestic passengers 134, ,56 13, , (2) International passengers 1,237,567 5,283,364 1,28,245 5,181, Total passengers 1,372,282 5,871,419 1,338,932 5,76, (3) Freight 67,932 2,946, ,446 2,926, (4) Others 181, , , , Total air transportation business 2,224,962 9,645,82 2,185,219 9,498, Aerospace business 67, ,629 67, , Air catering business 14,496 64,217 14,496 64, Special business 7,859 35,13 7,859 35,13.. Total 2,315,9 1,22,57 2,275,647 9,875, Source: KAL, Daishin Securities Research Center

3 KAL s revised assumptions used in the earnings forecast (Wmn, %) Previous Revised Change (%) 1Q8F 28F 1Q8F 28F 1Q8F 28F Operating revenue 2,315,9 1,22,57 2,275,647 9,875, Operating expenses 1,92,812 7,853,841 1,899,84 7,828, OP 74,922 76,16 39, , NP -217,35 82,85-226,931-13, Assumptions for the operating revenue forecast Domestic RPK growth rate %p -3%p International RPK growth rate %p -3.2%p Freight RTK growth rate %p -2.2%p Domestic yield growth rate International yield growth rate Freight yield growth rate Jet fuel prices Won-dollar exchange rate Source: KAL, Daishin Securities Research Center Asiana Airlines revised earnings forecast (Wmn, %) Previous Revised Change (%) 1Q8F 28F 1Q8F 28F 1Q8F 28F Operating revenue 1,3,343 4,28,82 985,193 4,236, Operating expenses 818,244 3,412,46 89,766 3,386, OP 29, ,122 21,185 25, NP -19,299 93,752-24,913 85, Domestic passengers 61, ,545 59, , International passengers 532,255 2,234,61 513,556 2,185, Total passengers 645,817 2,739,49 622,8 2,673, Freight 247,738 1,74, ,517 1,19, Others 19, ,7 15, , Domestic passenger RPK 392 1, , International passenger RPK 5,848 23,784 5,558 22, Freight RTK 886 3,71 9 3, Jet fuel prices Won-dollar exchange rate Source: Asiana Airlines, Daishin Securities Research Center

4 2. IIA s 1Q8 transportation performance KAL s total flights decrease In 1Q8, KAL s IIA flights maintained an increase of less than 5%, while Asiana Airlines maintained growth at nearly 1%. During the period, KAL s total international flights climbed 3.5% yoy to 17,61, while Asiana s surged 9.1% yoy to 12,57. According to IIA s transportation performance from Jan~Mar, KAL s total international passengers increased by 3.2% yoy to 2.99mn. We believe that this increase stems from a high comparison base (ie. the high growth rate of 15.% in 1Q7), and negative growth in March s international passenger demand before the Apr general election. Meanwhile, KAL s 1Q8 airfreight totaled 37.7K tons, an increase of 5.2% compared to the same period last year. Airfreight growth is outpacing passenger growth, which we believe is attributed to the robust exports of telecom equipment including handsets. For 1Q8, Asiana Airlines international passengers totaled 2,7, people, up 4.1% yoy. Its slowed international passenger growth was driven in part by the high comparison base of the previous year (strong international passenger growth of 16% for 1Q7) and in part by slower demand stemming from the upcoming general election, the slowed global economy and the rising won-dollar exchange rate. By contrast the carrier s total airfreight soared sharply by 16.5% yoy to reach 135.6K tons. Quarterly performance by carrier

5 KAL s quarterly international passengers KAL s international airfreight Int. l passengers Chg. (%,yoy) Int. l cargo shipments Chg. (%, yoy) people % Tons 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1Q5 3Q 1Q6 3Q 1Q7 3Q 1Q Asiana Airlines quarterly international passengers Asiana Airlines international airfreight Int. l passengers Chg. (%, yoy) Int. l cargo shipments Chg. (%, yoy) people ton

6 3. IIA releases sharply slowed Mar transportation indicators Average daily passenger growth: negative for the first time in 28 months IIA unveiled its Mar transportation data revealing that the total number of international flights climbed only 2.9% yoy to 17,521, which is a rather dramatic slowdown in growth. This is due to the fact that as airlines post higher fuel costs on surging oil prices, they are slashing their lower margin routes. Slowed flight growth combined with negative growth rates for both international passengers and the average daily passengers brought results far short of our expectations. March s international passengers totaled 2,47, people (down.7% yoy), whereas the average daily passengers were estimated at 79,671 people (down.7% yoy). The growth in both airfreight and passengers slowed sharply as the total amount of airfreight as well as the daily average airfreight both showed growth of only 1.8% yoy, which are the lowest gains since Oct 25. The slump in airfreight was mostly the result of reduced amounts of incoming and trans-shipment cargo. After recording sluggish results in Feb, the growth of this cargo was -3.6% yoy for the former and.2% yoy for the latter, respectively. In our view this stemmed from the won s depreciation. IIA s passenger and cargo shipment data ( people, tons) 3,5 Total passengers Chg. (yoy, RHS) Total airfreight Chg. (yoy, RHS) % 25 3, 2 2,5 15 2, 1 1,5 1,

7 KAL s international passenger volume decreases yoy KAL s total flights rose by 2.2% yoy to 2,967 for the month of Mar. Meanwhile, its international passenger volume shrank by.2% yoy to 927, people, falling for the first time since Dec 25. In addition, the airline s airfreight volume rose by only 2.3% yoy due to the decrease in incoming freight. In Mar, Asiana Airlines total flights climbed 9.1% yoy to 4,278, continuing solid growth. However, the airlines international passenger volume contracted.5% yoy to 65, people. In other words, just as for KAL, Asiana s passenger business suffered sluggish operating results. On the other hand, its airfreight volume increased 14.7% yoy to 49K tons. Though this is a notable increase in growth, it is attributable to the fact that Asiana s airfreight volume decreased in both Mar and Apr 27, thus providing a low comparison base. KAL s monthly passenger volume KAL s monthly airfreight volume ( people) KAL passengers (LHS) Chg. (RHS) ( people) KAL Airfreight (LHS) Chg. (RHS) Asiana s monthly passenger transport volume Asiana s monthly Airfreight transport volume ( people) Asiana passengers (LHS) Chg. (RHS) ( pp.) Asiana Airfreight (LHS) Chg. (RHS)

8 Transport statistics by month and route Total flights and changes for the Japanese route Total flights and changes for the Chinese route (Flights) # of flights Chg. (yoy; RHS) (Flights) # of flights Chg. (yoy; RHS) Total flights and changes for SE Asian route Total flights and changes for the American route (Flights) # of flights Chg. (yoy; RHS) (Flights) # of flights (US only) Chg. (yoy; RHS) Total flights and changes for the European route Total flights and changes for the Oceania route (Flights) # of flights Chg. (yoy; RHS) # of flights (Australia and (Flights) New Zealand only) Chg. (yoy; RHS)

9 Passenger volume and changes for the Japanese route Airfreight volume and changes for the Japanese route ( people) Passengers ( tons) Airfreight Passenger volume and changes for the Chinese route Airfreight volume and changes for the Chinese route ( people) Passengers ( tons) Airfreight Passenger volume and changes for the SE Asian route Airfreight volume and changes for the SE Asian route ( people) Passengers ( tons) Airfreight

10 Passenger volume and changes for the American route ( people) Airfreight volume and changes for the American route Passengers ( tons) Airfreight Passenger volume and changes for the European route Airfreight volume and changes for the European route ( people) Passengers ( tons) Airfreight Passenger volume and changes for the Oceania route Airfreight volume and changes for the Oceania route ( people) Passengers ( tons) Airfreight

11 Income Statement Balance Sheet (Wbn) 26A 27A 28F 29F 21F (Wbn) 26A 27A 28F 29F 21F Sales 11,529 12,462 14,112 14,973 15,86 Current Assets 2,83 2,638 2,377 2,652 2,695 (Growth,YoY) Cash Equivalent Cost of Sales 9,81 9,718 11,215 11,724 12,193 Short-term Financial Instruments (Growth,YoY) Account Receivables ,86 1,152 1,22 (% of Sales ) Inventories Gross Profit 2,448 2,745 2,897 3,249 3,668 Non-Current Assets 15,339 16,642 17,81 19,21 2,263 (% of Sales ) Investment Assets 1,28 2,182 3,177 4,171 5,166 SG&A 1,824 1,936 2,17 2,214 2,318 Tangible Assets 13,332 13,651 13,86 14,19 14,388 (Growth,YoY) Intangible Assets (% of Sales ) Other Non-Current Assets Operating Profit ,35 1,349 Total Assets 17,422 19,28 2,187 21,672 22,958 (Growth,YoY) Current Liabilities 4,35 4,857 3,897 3,746 3,375 (% of Sales ) Account Payable EBITDA 1,555 1,796 1,799 2,54 2,389 St. Debt (Growth,YoY) Current Portion of Lt. Debt 1,773 2,389 1,29 1,21 78 (% of Sales ) Non-Current Liabilities 7,995 8,91 1,72 11,949 13,19 Gain/Loss Non-Operating Bonds 1,969 2,29 3,239 3,439 3,789 Interest Expense Lt. Debt 1,478 2,264 2,644 3,373 3,793 Net Gain / Loss on Equity Method Total Liabilities 12,3 13,767 14,617 15,696 16,394 FX Translation/Transaction (Debt Ratio Others Paid-in-Capital 1,239 1,243 1,243 1,243 1,243 Pre-tax Profit from Continuing Operations Capital Surplus 3,7 3,7 3,7 3,7 3,7 Income Taxes Capital Adjsutment Tax Rates Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income Income from Discontinued Operation Retained Earnings 1,27 1,287 1,345 1,751 2,338 Net Profit Total Shareholder's Equity 5,392 5,513 5,57 5,977 6,563 (Growth,YoY) Total Debt 8,569 1,29 11,12 12,161 12,839 (% of Sales ) Net Debt 8,36 9,459 1,76 11,58 12,31 EPS 2, ,733 2,472 Net Debt / Equity Per Share Data & Multiples Cash Flow (W, x) 26A 27A 28F 29F 21F (Wbn) 26A 27A 28F 29F 21F EPS 2, ,733 2,472 Operating Cash Flow 1,374 1,43 1,282 1,41 1,626 PER Net Income BPS 2,875 21,225 21,456 23,91 25,452 Additions to Net Profit 79 1,116 1,346 1,5 1,86 PBR Depreciation ,9 1,19 1,39 EBITDAPS 6,258 7,225 7,238 8,264 9,612 FX Translation/Transaction EV/EBITDA Net Gain / Loss on Equity Method SPS 46,392 5,146 56,785 6,249 63,819 Others PSR Incr. in Cash (Decr) CFPS 5,813 4,443 4,345 5,834 6,654 Investing Cash Flow -1,256-1,853-2,7-1,972-2,33 DPS Investment Securities Tangible Assets -1,35-1,396-1,2-1,25-1,3 Financial Ratios Others (%, x) 26A 27A 28F 29F 21F Financing Cash Flow , >>Growth Ratios St. Debt Sales Growth Bonds/Lt. Debt 1,624 2,285 1, OP Growth Right Issue NP Growth Cash Dividend >>Profitability Ratios Others -2,25-1,135-1, ROIC Incr. in Cash (Decr) ROE Cash at the Beginning >>Stability Ratios Cash at the End Debt Ratio Unleveraged CFO 1,755 1,188 1,78 1,849 2,97 Net Debt / Equity NOPAT Interest coverage ratio Free Cash Flow Source: Korea Line, Daishin Securities Research Center

12 Compliance Notice This report has been prepared without any undue external influence or interference, and accurately reflects the personal views of the analyst who is responsible for this report. In accordance with clause 4-16 of the supervisory regulation for the securities industry, we inform: - No information or content in this report has been shared before it is released on Daishin s website. - The analyst has not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations. No part of this report is provided in advance to institutional investors or a third party. Sector ratings - Overweight: industry indicators are expected to outperform the market over the next 6m - Neutral: industry indicators are expected to be in line with the market over the next 6m - Underweight: industry indicators are expected to underperform the market over the next 6m Company ratings - Buy: the stock is expected to outperform the market by at least 1% over the next 6m - Marketperform: the stock is expected to either outperform or underperform the market by less than 1%p over the next 6m - Underperform: the stock is expected to underperform the market at least 1%p over the next 6m This report is distributed only to the customers of Daishin Securities Co., Ltd. for informational purposes, and none of the contents presented in this report may be copied or transmitted to any other party. While we have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the report is reliable, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Therefore, Daishin Securities Co., Ltd. shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of this report. [Korean Air Lines (349 KS)] Rating and Target price Date Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy TP 68, 92, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 12, 12, 12, 12, Date Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy TP 12, 12, 12, 12, 81, 81, 81, 81, 66,3 66,3 66,3 [Korean Air Lines (349 KS)] Target price and Actual share price 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Share price ( (W) ) Target price (W) ( ) [Asiana Air (256 KS)] Rating and Target price Date Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy TP 1, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 15, 15, 15, 13, Date Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy TP 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 1,2 1,2 8,8 7,6 7,6 7,6 [Asiana Airlines (256 KS)] Rating and Actual share price 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Share price ( (W) ) Target price (W) ( )

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