Prestige terminals in the provinces: Is the EU over-airported?

Transcription

1 Impulse presentation ITB Aviation Day 2006 Prestige terminals in the provinces: Is the EU over-airported? Dr. Jürgen Ringbeck Berlin 8 March

2 Key questions How is overall demand developing in Europe, and what is driving it? Has airport capacity kept pace with demand, and what developments should be expected? What airport segments have the greatest need for action? 1

3 European air transport is and remains a growth industry Development of European passenger transport AEA members (Mn. PAX) CAGR + 5.9% CAGR + 4.8% Intercontinental Shorthaul Note: Source: Intercontinental includes traffic to North Atlantic and Far East / Australasia regions Historic figures - AEA Yearbooks, forecast figures IATA passenger forecast , Booz Allen Hamilton Analysis 2

4 In particular low-cost carriers have stimulated new European travel demand Development of LCC transport in Europe (Mn. PAX p.a.) Origin of passengers in Europe (experts estimate) Passengers won away from other airlines 40% 24 60% Newly generated passengers Source: NFO Infratest 2002 and Booz Allen Hamilton Analysis 3

5 The European OAG airport network expanded mainly driven by 50 regional niche airports Development of airport network in Europe (number of airports belonging to the OAG network) 538 ~ 51 Additions and essential projects in European airport network 51 (since 1990) 487 Examples include: Doncaster/Sheffield 2 Airlines Melilla 1 Airline Floro 2 Airlines Santorini 2 Airlines Akureyri 2 Airlines Ostend/Bruges 2 Airlines Tirgu Mures 1 Airline Munich (92) Milan (98) Oslo (98) Athens (01) 4 4 Manchester (01) Stockholm (02) Leipzig (03) Zurich (04) Airports newly added to OAG network Airports newly added to OAG network (includes conversions) Airport substitutions Extended airports (new runway) Reference: Source left: Source right: Number of airports in at present 40 OAG countries derived from the OAG flight plan data Regional air traffic in Europe, ETH Zurich, adjusted by excluding Swiss airports with no network connection, and new airports without three letter IATA code. ACI Report Building for the future, April 2005; Booz Allen Hamilton Analysis 4

6 Today the capacity bottlenecks are already significant, especially at the major airports 100 Capacity vs. traffic volume 2003 AMS CDG Average passenger volume vs. estimated capacity limit (Mn. PAX p.a.) Capacity (Million PAX p.a.) BRU OSL VIE CGN HAJ CPH ARN MAN DUS MAD FCO MUC ORY LGW FRA LHR 27 Estimated capacity limit peak times Estimated capacity limit peak times 20 Estimated capacity limit peak times (assumption 2:1) Passenger volume (Mn. PAX p.a.) = Major airport (> 25 Mn. PAX) = Other international airports (< 25 Mn. PAX) Source: Booz Allen Hamilton Benchmarking study, ATI 5 Ø 11 other international airports (< 25 Mn. PAX) Ø LGW, LHR, FRA, CDG, MAD

7 Given a positive growth scenario of 4.3% per year a capacity gap of 17% emerges Influence of limited airport capacity on the number of flights in Europe Long-term capacity gap around 17% Comments Doubling of European air traffic by 2025 flights p.a.(thousand) Bottlenecks in particular at mega-hubs like Frankfurt und London Regional airports relieve hubs if part of the same regional cluster (e.g. London airports) = Airport capacity demand growth scenario A Reference: Definition of growth scenarios according to EUROCONTROL scenario A: globalization and strong economic growth ; Source: EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecasts of Flights ( ) 6

8 Even at the smaller airports a significant capacity gap will emerge over the long term forecast capacity need and gap by European airport segments (# movements per hour) % Significant capacity gap at large airports Capacity gap 2025 Available capacity % % 68% 23% 77% 76% 24% 85% airports segmented by capacity level ( # movements per hour) 1) 15% 1) Peak time capacity Source: EUROCONTROL Challenges to Growth 2004 Report 7

9 In Germany, at least, building new airports is not the solution Example: airports in Germany and their catchment area within a 50km radius Accessibility of the nearest airport (% of the total population) Kiel Lübeck Barth Rostock Heringsdorf 92% Hamburg Schwerin Neubrandenburg Mönchengladbach Niederrhein- Weeze 5% of the population potentially underserved Maastricht- Aachen Bremen Stendal Berlin-Tegel Berlin-Tempelhof Münster/ Berlin-Schönefeld Hannover Osnabrück Braunschweig Magdeburg Paderborn/ Cottbus Dortmund Lippstadt Cochstedt Dessau Leipzig/Halle Düsseldorf Dresden Köln/Bonn Kassel Siegerland Erfurt Altenburg Frankfurt- Hahn Frankfurt Main Egelsbach Bayreuth Mannheim Nürnberg Saarbrücken Zweibrücken Karlsruhe/ Baden-Baden Hof Plauen 64% 5% Stuttgart Augsburg < 60 min < 90 min > 90 min Lahr Friedrichshafen München Salzburg travel time to the nearest airport Source left: Lufthansa Politikbrief August 2004 Source right: Masterplan zur Erschließung der Flughafeninfrastruktur Berlin

10 Obviously larger airports have structural advantages (indicated by a sample of 15 leading European airports) Fees/PAX and PAX 2004 EBITDA/PAX ( ) 3 80 Fees/PAX ( ) 2,5 2 1, PAX (Mn.) 7,9 6,4 24% Gap 20 0,5 0 Heathrow Rhein-Main Charles de Gaulles = major airport (> 25 Mn. PAX) Schiphol Gatwick Fiumicino Munich Copenhagen = Other international airports (< 25 Mn. PAX) Malpensa Zurich Dublin Dusseldorf Oslo International Berlin Vienna 10 0 = PAX Ø 6 major airports (> 25 Mn. PAX) Ø 9 other international airports (< 25 Mn. PAX) Source: Booz Allen Hamilton Benchmarking study, ATI 9

11 Is the EU over-airported Key questions for the panel Major airports What should the rules of the game for further airport development be? Regional airports What mistakes have been made? What are the root-causes? What are the potential solutions? 10