APPENDIX 6 TOURISM. Specialist. Peer Reviewer. Martin Janse van Vuuren Grant Thornton Strategic Solutions. Heidi Keyser ED/GE Tourism Solutions

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1 APPENDIX 6 TOURISM Specialist Martin Janse van Vuuren Grant Thornton Strategic Solutions Peer Reviewer Heidi Keyser ED/GE Tourism Solutions

2 Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway SPECIALIST STUDY ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED N2 WILD COAST TOLL HIGHWAY ON TOURISM Prepared by M. Jansen van Vuuren and M. Mbekwa Grant Thornton (Pty) Ltd P.O. Box 1550 Cape Town 8000 Submitted to CCA Environmental (Pty) Ltd On behalf of The South African National Roads Agency Limited 20 August 2008

3 Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The report presents a tourism impact assessment for the Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway (the project) including a consideration of the following alternatives: SANRAL Preferred Route (Route L); and Coastal Mzamba Route (Route H) See Annexure A These alternatives are described in detail in Chapter 5 of the EIA scoping report. The route traverses the Eastern Cape from East London to Isipingo South of Durban and crosses a greenfields portion of the area known as the Wild Coast between Lusikisiki and the Mthamvuna River. Impacts to tourism in the Eastern Cape portion of the study area are definitely beneficial, except on the section of the existing N2, which will not be part of the new route alignment. On the areas adjacent to the new route demand for tourism facilities is likely to rise in conjunction with growth in tourism volumes, growth in the number of tourism products and growth in traffic on a KwaZulu-Natal-Eastern Cape-Western Cape route, which will be an economic benefit to the area. On the existing N2 section, the impact of the project is likely to be a risk to tourism growth in the area. The project will definitely not have a benefit to the Kwa-Zulu Natal portion of the study area, as this is already a mature tourism destination with good access. The impact here will be neutral. Economic growth in tourism in the Eastern Cape portion of the study area will probably occur with risks to sensitive natural environments. Mitigation and optimisation strategies to avoid risks and maximise benefits include: Tourism promotion, marketing product development and skills development; The maintenance and upgrade of feeder roads to the various attractions; and Control of access to some of the environmentally sensitive areas through collaboration with conservation authorities and other key stakeholders on the placement of access points to conservation areas. Both the Coastal Mzamba and SANRAL routes will both result in tourism growth in the area. The Coastal Mzamba route was the preferred alternative of tourism stakeholders, due to it not dividing the proposed Pondoland Park and the perception that distance from the coast will reduce impacts. However environmental costs of this route are more significant and therefore negate any tourism benefits of situating more of the park East of the route. I

4 Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway 1. INTRODUCTION Background The Study Area Methodology Phase 1: Desktop Research Phase 2: Primary Research Phase 3: Report Motivation for use of a Quantitative Methodology 7 2. THE TOURISM INDUSTRY Introduction Foreign Tourism in South Africa the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal Length of Stay of Foreign Tourists Purpose of Visit of Foreign Tourists Accommodation Used by Foreign Tourists Activities Experienced by Foreign Tourists Domestic Tourism in South Africa, the Eastern Cape and KZN Introduction Number of Domestic Tourists Length of Stay by Province Purpose of domestic trips Breakdown of Destinations of Domestic Tourists within Provinces: LSM of Domestic Visitors Number of Tourists in the Study Area TOURISM PRODUCT SUPPLY Introduction Tourism Products Section 1: East London to Butterworth Section 2: Butterworth to Mthatha Section 3 and 4: Mthatha to Ntafufu River Crossing Section 5: Ntafufu River to Lusikisiki Section 6: Lusikisiki to Mthamvuna River Crossing Existing N2 Section: To Port Shepstone via Kokstad Section 7 Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange Stakeholder and Specialist Inputs: Stakeholder, Tour Operator and Accommodation Owner Survey: High Volume Tourism vs. Eco-Tourism Input from Previous Appeals Process Consideration of other specialist studies 34 II

5 Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway 4. THE IMPACT ON TOURISM Introduction Methodology Risks and Uncertainties in the Growth Model: Projected Growth in National Tourism Demand The Planning Context National and Regional Initiatives 37 The Wild Coast SDI 37 Pondoland National Park 37 Xolobeni Mines 38 Wild Coast Conservation and Sustainable Development Project: Provincial Plans Local Plans Cumulative Impacts of Development Projects and the Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway Projected Impact on Tourism in the Study Area Assessment of Alternatives Impact of Toll Fees Assessment of Tourism Impacts in the Study Area Section 1: East London to Butterworth Section 2: Butterworth to Mthatha Section 3 and 4: Mthatha to Ntafufu River Crossing Section 5: Ntafufu River Crossing to Lusikisiki Section 6: Lusikisiki to Mthamvuna River Existing N2 To Port Shepstone via Kokstad Section 7 Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange Mitigation and Optimisation Tourism Promotion and tourism product development Tourism Skills Promotion Creation of Feeder Routes Minimising impacts on Environmentally Sensitive Areas in order to sustain eco-tourism Mitigation measures for other specialist studies Monitoring and Review 71 5 DISCUSSION Significant Impacts Conflicting Development Philosophies Mitigation, monitoring and evaluation 72 III

6 Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway 6. CONCLUSION Increase in growth in overnight tourists Increase in growth in tourism products Increase in the number of tourism products Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route Impact of increased access to environmentally sensitive areas on the sustainability of eco-tourism ventures Overall Conclusion 76 Index of Tables Table 2.1 Comparison of the Number of Domestic Trips, 2003, and 2006 Table 2.2 Types of Trips to the Eastern Cape Destinations 17 Table 2.3 Types of Trips to KwaZulu-Natal Destinations 18 Table 3.1 Section 1: East London to Butterworth 21 Table 3.2 Section 2: Butterworth to Mthatha 23 Table 3.3 Section 3 and 4: Mthatha to Ntafufu River Crossing 24 Table 3.4 Tourism Accommodation Supply in Section 5 25 Table 3.5 Section 6 Lusikisiki to Mthamvuna River Crossing 26 Table 3.6 Existing N2 Section 27 Table 3.7 Section 7 Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange 28 Table 3.8 Addressing Stakeholder Concerns and Issues 33 Table 4.1 Additional Tourists Due to the Project 45 Table 4.2 Additional Rooms/Units Due to the Project 45 Table 4.3 Summary of Ratings Scales 48 Table 4.4 Summary of Significance Scales 49 Table 4.5 Section 1: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists 51 Table 4.6 Section 1: Impact of increased growth in tourism products 51 Table 4.7 Section 1: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products 52 Table 4.8 Section 1: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu- Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route 53 Table 4.9 Section 2: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists 53 Table 4.10 Section 2: Impact of increased growth in tourism products 54 Table 4.11 Section 2: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products 55 Table 4.12 Section 2: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu- Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route 55 Table 4.13 Section 3 & 4: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists 56 Table 4.14 Section 3 & 4: Impact of increased growth in tourism products 57 Table 4.15 Section 3 & 4: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products 57 Table 4.16 Section 3 & 4: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route 58 IV

7 Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway Table 4.17 Section 3 & 4 Impact of Increased Access to environmentally sensitive areas on eco-tourism destinations 58 Table 4.18 Section 5: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists 59 Table 4.19 Section 5: Impact of increased growth in tourism products 60 Table 4.20 Section 5: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products 60 Table 4.21 Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route 61 Table 4.22 Section 5: Impact of Increased Access to environmentally sensitive areas 60 Table 4.23 Section 6: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists 62 Table 4.24 Section 6: Impact of increased growth in tourism products 63 Table 4.25 Section 6: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products 64 Table 4.26 Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route 64 Table 4.27 Section 6: Impact of Increased Access to environmentally sensitive areas 65 Table 4.28 Existing N2 Section: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists 64 Table 4.29 Existing N2 Section: Impact of increased growth in tourism products 66 Table 4.30 Existing N2 Section: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products 65 Table 4.31 Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route 67 Table 4.32 Section 7: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists 67 Table 4.33 Section 7: Impact of increased growth in tourism products 69 Table 4.34 Section 7: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products 68 Table 4.35 Section 7: Impact of increase in growth in transit tourists on a Kwa- Zulu Natal/Eastern Cape/Western Cape route 70 INDEX OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Provinces Visited by Foreign Arrivals in Figure 2.2 Purpose of Visit of All Foreign Visitors to South Africa in Figure 2.3 Foreign Arrivals to the Eastern Cape and South Africa by Purpose of Visit, Figure 2.4 Purpose of Visit to South Africa and KZN 12 Figure 2.5 Accommodation Used by Foreign Visitors in KZN 12 Figure 2.6 Activities Undertaken by Foreign Visitors in Figure 2.7 Domestic Trips Taken Inter and Intra Provincially 15 Figure 2.8 Origin of Domestic Tourists to Eastern Cape 15 Figure 2.9 Origin of Domestic Tourists to KZN 16 Figure 2.10 Purpose of Visit by Province in Figure 2.11 LSM Profile of Domestic Tourists in South Africa, V

8 Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway ANNEXURES: Annexure A: The Study Area Annexure B: Benchmark of Tourism Demand in the Study Area Annexure C: Projected Accommodation Supply in the Study Area Annexure D: Projected Number of Room Units in the Absence of the Project Annexure E: Projected Number of Room Units taking into account the Project Annexure F: Impact of the Project Annexure G: Interviews Annexure H: Document list Annexure I: Interview prompts Annexure J: Peer Review Comments and Specialist Responses VI

9 Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway Consultant: Grant Thornton Strategic Solutions Contact Persons: Martin Jansen van Vuuren and Margie Mbekwa Physical Address: 7 th Floor Pinnacle Building Cnr Strand and Burg St Cape Town 8001 Postal Address: P0 Box 1550 Cape Town 8000 Telephone: Fax: mjvvuuren@gtct.co.za Grant Thornton s Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure Unit is regarded as the pre-eminent tourism consultants in Africa and further a field, Grant Thornton s tourism, hospitality and leisure unit has over 22 years of unparalleled expertise across a range of industry sectors, servicing a varied client base. Our expertise include feasibility studies, market analysis, financial evaluations and business plans project conceptualisation, planning, implementation and appraisal valuations strategic planning policy formulation strategy formulation / facilitation marketing and promotional strategy corporate and organisational strategy economic impact studies operation reviews operator-selection and contract review / negotiations privatisation strategies quality assessment and grading human resources planning and training system reviews and implementation Industry sectors local, provincial, regional and national government tourism planning and development tourist accommodation airports and airlines casinos and gaming food services and catering travel and tourism services meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions VII

10 Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway sport and leisure entertainment tourist retail / shopping tourist attractions DECLARATION OF CONSULTANT S INDEPENDENCE Grant Thornton is an independent consultant to CCA Environmental (Pty) Ltd and has no business, financial, personal or other interest in the activity, application or appeal in respect of which he was appointed other than fair remuneration for work performed in connection with the activity, application or appeal. There are no circumstances that compromise the objectivity of this specialist performing such work. VIII

11 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background SANRAL has appointed CCA Environmental to undertake an EIA for the Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway (the project) which is proposed to extend from the Gonubie Interchange, near East London (Eastern Cape) to the Isipingo Interchange south of Durban (KwaZulu-Natal). This is the second EIA process to be conducted for the project. The previous study was found to have a fatal flaw as the consultant undertaking the EIA was found to not be independent which is a legal condition of the EIA. The new EIA process requires that the specialist studies for the previous EIA process be updated and augmented taking into account issues raised in the scoping stage of the EIA study as well as those issues brought up in the previous EIA. This report is an update of the Tourism Impact Assessment, which assesses the impact the road will have on increased/decreased tourism demand in due to increased access or changed routing that may occur as a result of the project. These potential impacts include, inter alia: Change in international tourist travel patterns; Change in domestic tourist travel patterns; Increased demand for the area as a tourism destination; Potential development pressure as a result of demand for tourism facilities such as restaurants, overnight accommodation, etc; and Economic impact on the region as a result of increased tourism volumes such as investment opportunities, job opportunities, tourist spending, etc. Grant Thornton has been appointed by CCA Environmental to act as the specialist tourism consultants for the project, and update and augment the previous tourism specialist study according to the most recent statistical data and the issues raised in the scoping phase of the EIA. 1.2 The Study Area The proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway extends over a total distance of approximately 560 km between the N2 Gonubie Interchange (near East London in the Eastern Cape) and the N2 Isipingo Interchange (south of Durban in KwaZulu-Natal) refer to Annexure A. It is proposed that the design, construction, financing, operation and maintenance of the proposed highway be undertaken as part of a 30-year 1

12 Concession Contract. There is an alternative route that has been proposed by SANRAL. This route is also shown in Annexure A. The key components of the proposed project include: Upgrading and widening of existing road sections (of the N2 and R61) included within the proposed project (approximately 470 km); New road construction within two greenfields sections (approximately 90 km); Construction of eight new major bridges; Upgrading and/or construction of new road interchanges and intersections; and Construction of associated structures (such as toll plazas, pedestrian overpasses and animal underpasses). The proposed project aims to provide a national route that improves access and linkage to the east coast region of South Africa while reducing road-user costs and optimising safety, comfort and socio-economic benefits. For the purpose of this report the study area has been defined as all potentially affected areas surrounding the current and proposed N2 stretching from and including East London to the Isipingo Interchange south of Durban, but excluding Durban. The scoping report splits the area into 7 sections. These 7 sections have been used in this report. For tourism purposes Section 3 and 4 have been combined and the existing N2 section has been considered to address the concerns of stakeholders around the impacts the new alignment will have on this section. Scoping Report Sections Section 1: East London to Ngobozi Toll Plaza Section 2: Ngobozi to Mthatha (Ngqeleni) Section 3: Mthatha (Ngqeleni) to Ndwalane Section 4: Ndwalane to Ntafufu River Section 5: Ntafufu River to Lusikisiki (Magwa Intersection) Tourism Study Sections Section 1: East London to Butterworth including the towns of: East London, Gonubie, Cinsta, Haga Haga, Morgan Bay and Kei Mouth Section 2: Butterworth to Mthatha including the towns of: Butterworth, Idutywa, Mqanduli, Coffee Bay, Vidgesville, Mthatha, Mazeppa Bay, Qolora Mouth and Qunu Sections 3 & 4: Mthatha to Ntafufu River including the destinations of: Hluleka Nature Reserve, Umngazi and Port St Johns Section 5: Ntafufu River to Lusikisiki including the towns of: Lusikisiki, and Mbotyi Section 6: Lusikisiki (Magwa Intersection) to Mthamvuna River Section 7: Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange Section 6: Lusikisiki to Mthamvuna River including the towns of: Flagstaff and Bizana Existing N2 Section: To Port Shepstone via Kokstad including the towns of: Qumbu, Mount Frere, Mount Ayliff, Kokstad and Harding Section 7: Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange including the towns of: Port Edward, Margate, Port Shepstone, Scottburgh, Hiberdene, Umkomaas, Amanzimtoti and Isipingo amongst others. 2

13 Terminology DEAT Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism EC Eastern Cape EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EU European Union IDP Integrated Development Plans KZN KwaZulu-Natal LED Local Economic Development LSM Living Standards Measure RoD Record of Decision SANParks South African National Parks SANRAL South African National Roads Agency Limited SDI Spatial Development Initiative SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SMME Small, medium and micro enterprise TOR Terms of Reference VFR Visiting Friends and Relatives WTTC World Travel and Tourism Council WTO World Tourism Organisation 1.3 Methodology According to the TOR for specialists we have addressed the following objectives through this study: Understood the tourism conditions and characteristics that exist in the study area and identified any sensitive areas that would need special consideration; Ensured that all issues and concerns relevant to the specialist tourism impact study are addressed and identified any additional issues, based on professional expertise and experience in order to recommend them for further consideration; Considered comments on the previous specialist study as per the review of the previous EIA process, appeals and RoD commissioned by the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (final report dated 29 October 2004), as appropriate; Indicated the reliability of information used in the assessment, as well as any constraints/limitations applicable to the report (e.g. any areas of insufficient information or uncertainty); Identified the potential sources of risk to the affected environment during the construction and operational phases of the proposed project; Identified and listed relevant legislative and permit requirements applicable to the potential impacts of the proposed project; Included an assessment of the do nothing alternative and identified feasible alternatives; Assessed and evaluated potential direct and indirect impacts during both the construction and operational phase of the proposed project; 3

14 Identified and assessed any cumulative effects arising from the proposed project; Undertook field surveys, as appropriate to the requirements of the particular specialist study; Identified areas where impacts could combine or interact with impacts likely to be covered by other specialists, resulting in aggravated or enhanced impacts and assess potential effects; Applied the precautionary principle in the assessment of impacts, in particular where there is major uncertainty, low levels of confidence in predictions and poor data or information; Determined the significance of assessed impacts according to a Convention for Assigning Significance Ratings to Impacts; Recommended practicable mitigation measures to minimise or eliminate costs, enhance potential project benefits or to protect public and individual rights to compensation and indicate how these can be implemented in the final design, construction and operation of the proposed project; Provided a revised significance rating of assessed impacts after the implementation of mitigation measures; Identified ways to ensure that recommended mitigation measures would be implemented, as appropriate; and Recommended an appropriate monitoring and review programme in order to track the effectiveness of proposed mitigation measures. Further we have addressed the objectives of the tourism study: Reviewed available information and given an overview of local and regional tourism initiatives; Assessed the potential impact on tourism in the region in terms of potential improved access, and perceived increased cost (through payment of toll fees) to reach a destination (in association with economic study); Determined the origin of domestic tourists to the region and assessed the potential impact of the proposed project and identified feasible alternatives on domestic tourism; and Discussed the apparently conflicting tourism development philosophies for the Wild Coast i.e. high volume mass tourism versus low volume eco-tourism - and indicated their implications for the viability of the proposed project and identified feasible alternatives Our initial tourism impact report has served as a base for this assignment. In order to update this report we have adopted a 3 Phase approach: Phase 1: Desktop Research Phase 2: Primary Research Phase 3: Report 4

15 The evaluation of impacts is based on the Impact Rating Methodology proposed in the terms of reference Phase 1: Desktop Research During this phase we have: Met with the Client to determine the extent of existing information and reports; Obtained all relevant information from the client and other identified sources (i.e. Statistics South Africa); Conducted secondary research to update information on the nature of tourism activities in the areas affected by the do nothing alternative as well as the other feasible alternatives identified including: Number of domestic and international tourists visiting the study area; Most popular tourism attractions and activities; Profile of affected tourism businesses; Tourism opportunities, attractions and activities that may benefit; Tourism opportunities that may lose out; and Status of access to tourism attractions, businesses and activities. Consideration has also been given to impacts that may spread further than the areas directly affected. Other specialists have been consulted with regarding these impacts. The organisations from which relevant updated information was obtained include, but are not limited to: Relevant national and provincial government departments, e.g. DEAT and the provincial Departments of Economic Affairs and Tourism; Relevant district and local municipalities; and Other relevant tourism organisations and associations The documents that were located and reviewed include, but are not limited to: All reports related to the project including impact assessments, planning documents etc; All reports and plans related to local tourism initiatives; Statistics South Africa information including 2001 census data; Relevant municipal IDPs; Transport studies; and Other relevant reports 5

16 All information gathered during the course of this Phase of the project has been analysed, interpreted and presented in a report format Phase 2: Primary Research In this phase of the study we have: Conducted fieldwork in the areas, which could be affected by the development, in order to determine: Existing tourism businesses and activities, which could be either negatively or positively impacted on; and Opportunities and potential for future tourism activities, which could be either positively or negatively impacted on. Conducted personal interviews with key tourism stakeholders such as national, provincial and local government in order to determine: Their perception of impacts of maintaining the status quo (based on the do nothing scenario) on existing tourism activities; Their perception of the impacts of maintaining the status quo on planned tourism activities; Their perception of the impacts of the proposed alternatives on existing tourism activities; and Their perception of the impacts of the proposed alternatives on planned tourism activities. Conducted personal interviews with operators of tourism attractions, tour operators and those tourism businesses identified in Phase 1 who may be directly affected to determine: Their perception of the impacts of maintaining the status quo (based on the do nothing scenario); and Their perception of the impacts of the proposed alternatives. In this research we pay special attention to the impacts on tourism SMME s which have been created to bring about poverty relief. The above research enabled us to: Form recommendations as to additional issues that were not covered in the original specialist tourism study; and Evaluate impacts based on the proposed impact rating methodology. 6

17 1.3.3 Phase 3: Report The Report includes: A profile of tourism activities in the areas affected by the proposed project; An update of the existing study encompassing changes identified in the tourism activities in the area; An assessment of impacts based on the findings of research to supplement the existing study. This encompasses a detailed list of each impact, its characteristics and severity; Key perceptions and expectations of affected stakeholders including their desired outcomes and the opportunity this presents to deciding on the most appropriate scenario; Description of risks and impacts to existing and planned tourism activities in the affected area; Draft recommendations clearly outlining the following: o Detailed impact mitigation and management recommendations, with associated costs and recommended sources of funding, including clear recommendations on benefits to tourism schemes and other key interventions; o Generic approach to dealing with the tourism impacts of the proposed project; o Generic approach to dealing with risks and impacts to those tourism businesses located in affected areas; o Key strategic partnerships and institutional relationships; and o Key stakeholder management requirements critical for relationship building and communication with all affected tourism stakeholders regarding mitigation and management of project impacts. The compilation of this final draft report was informed by peer review comments. Details of peer review comments are attached in Annexure J Motivation for use of a Quantitative Methodology A quantitative approach was the primary method used for estimating the impacts of the proposed toll road. The methodology has enabled us to project future performance levels and trends of the overnight tourism industry as a result of the proposed project. The performance levels of accommodation establishments are one of the key indicators of the success of tourism. Therefore, projecting the future demand that will result from the project assists in understanding the scale of the impact on tourism. 7

18 2. THE TOURISM INDUSTRY 2.1 Introduction In this section, the tourism market in South Africa, the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu- Natal is analysed to serve as background to the recommendations. Both the foreign and domestic tourism market has been analysed. 2.2 Foreign Tourism in South Africa the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal The data on foreign tourism was sourced from the following: Stats SA Arrivals data for the full year 2006 and up to March 2007; SA Tourism Reports full year 2005; SA Tourism Reports first three quarters 2006; and SA Tourism Report Summary of 2006 According to Stats SA a total of 8,4 million foreign visitors arrived in South Africa in 2006, up 13,9% from 2005 and far exceeding the global tourism growth of 4,5% in This growth is made up of 16,3% growth in African arrivals and 7,2% growth in overseas arrivals. There were 6,3 million African Arrivals and 2,1 million overseas arrivals in This brings the compound average growth rate of arrivals to South Africa from 2001 to 2006 to 7,7%. Significant portions of African visitors are cross-border travellers including job seekers, shoppers and traders from neighbouring countries. In 2006, 90% (1,8 million) of the 2,1 million overseas arrivals accessed South Africa by air, compared to 7% (0,4 million) of the 6,3 million African arrivals. Data released by Stats SA indicates that South Africa received 2,2 million visitors in the first quarter (Jan-Mar) of 2007, representing a 10% increase on the 2 million visitors hosted during the same period in The overall visitor increase is attributable to a 3% increase in overseas arrivals and a 13% increase in African arrivals. According to SA Tourism, in 2005, 7,6% of all foreign arrivals to South Africa visited the Eastern Cape, equivalent to arrivals. If the Eastern Cape received the same percentage of foreign arrivals in 2006 (7,6%) this would translate into arrivals. Although the Eastern Cape s share of foreign visitors has dropped slightly 8

19 from 7,8% in 2004 to 7,6% in 2005, visitor numbers increased by 7% from to visitors. Figure 2.1 indicates the percentage of foreign visitors to the 9 provinces of South Africa for 2002 to Gauteng remains the most visited province with around 50% of all foreign tourists visiting Gauteng, followed by the Western Cape and then KwaZulu- Natal. KZN was the 3 rd most visited province in 2005, and the only province to record continuous increases in market share since ,7% of tourists visited KZN in 2005 representing a total of 1,5 million visitors if the same trend continues in 2006, the province will receive 1,8 million visitors. KZN has been experiencing increases in market share since The province received 18,6% of all visitors in 2003 and 20,4% in A comparison between 2004 and 2005 reveals that all the provinces, with the exception of the Free State and the North West, recorded increases in visitor numbers, however KZN and Limpopo were the only two provinces that achieved increases in market share. Figure 2.1: Provinces Visited by Foreign Arrivals in % 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Gauteng KZN WC EC FS NC LIM MPU NW Source: SA Tourism Length of Stay of Foreign Tourists On average, foreign arrivals to South Africa spent 9 days in the country during 2006 up from 8 nights in 2005 and down from 10 nights in Holiday travellers spent on average 11 days in South Africa, while Visitors to Friends and Relatives (VFR) travellers spent 10 days. Shopping visitors spent on average 2 days while business 9

20 tourists spent 5 days. The most common length of stay for air arrivals was 14 nights, while the most common length of stay for land arrivals was 2 nights. The average length of stay for foreign visitors to KZN in 2006 was 6,4 nights, up from 6,1 nights in The average length of stay of foreign tourists to the Eastern Cape in 2006 was 8,4 nights up from 7,3 nights in Purpose of Visit of Foreign Tourists Figure 2.2 shows purpose of visit of foreign tourists in This is largely similar to the purpose of visit for South Africa s foreign visitors during 2004, with shopping (up from 22,5% to 24,9%), business travel (up from 8,1% to 8,6%) and other (up from 8,2% to 8,4%) increasing from 2004 to 2005 and VFR (down from 23,8% to 21,8%), holiday (down from 31,8% to 30,9%) and business tourism (down from 5,6% to 5,4%) decreasing as a proportion of overall travellers to South Africa. Figure 2.2: Purpose of Visit of All Foreign Visitors to South Africa in 2005 Other 8% VFR 22% Holiday 31% Shopping 25% Business Tourism 5% Business travel 9% Source: SA Tourism In 2005, 59% of all overseas and African air (i.e. African tourists who accessed South Africa by air) arrivals, visited KZN for holiday purposes, followed by 20% who visited for business purposes, 16% VFR purposes and 5% for other purposes. During the same period, the primary purpose of visit for African land arrivals was business (45%), followed by holiday (38%), VFR (15%) and other (3%). 10

21 An analysis of purpose of visit by region shows that holiday is the main purpose of visit from the Americas, Asia & Australasia and Europe regions. Shopping and VFR appear to be more prevalent for the African regions. Unfortunately SA Tourism did not publish the purpose of visit by province in However if we multiply the number of visitors to the Eastern Cape by country of origin by the purpose of visit by country of origin we can estimate the number of visitors to the Eastern Cape by purpose of visit. Figure 2.3 shows the purpose of visit for foreign arrivals to the Eastern Cape as compared with South Africa. Visitors to the Eastern Cape are largely holidaymakers, with more than 50% of arrivals, followed by business visitors (26%) and then VFR visitors (16%). Figure 2.3: Foreign Arrivals to the Eastern Cape and South Africa by Purpose of Visit, % 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 30.9% 51.2% 38.9% 26.1% 21.8% 16.3% 10.0% 8.4% 6.4% 0.0% Holiday Business VFR Other SA Eastern Cape Note: Business includes business tourists, business travellers and shoppers Source: SA Tourism Annual Report 2005 Figure 2.4 overleaf shows the purpose of visit to KZN in KZN has a high proportion of holiday visitors when compared with the national figures. Fewer people visit the province for VFR and Business than nationally as well. 11

22 Figure 2.4 Purpose of Visit to South Africa and KZN Holiday Business VFR Other SA KZN Source: SA Tourism Accommodation Used by Foreign Tourists Staying with friends and family is the most popular type of accommodation used by foreign arrivals to South Africa followed by hotels (see Figure 2.5). Figure 2.5: Accommodation Used by Foreign Visitors in 2005 Caravan & Camping 1.7% Backpackers 5.3% Hospitals 0.7% Other 4.4% Hotels 22.1% GH 6.4% VFR 39.2% Self Catering 9.6% Train / ships 0.2% BB 6.1% Game Lodges 4.3% Source: SA Tourism GH = Guesthouse BB = Bed and Breakfast During 2005 foreign visitors used similar accommodation as in 2004, with the exception that more foreign visitors made use of self-catering accommodation and staying with friends and relatives, while fewer visitors made use of hotels. This could 12

23 be an indication that they tried to mitigate the effects of the stronger Rand by saving money on accommodation Activities Experienced by Foreign Tourists The most frequent activity undertaken by tourists while visiting South Africa was shopping, followed by nightlife and socialising. Wildlife viewing, trips to the beach along with visits to natural attractions also proved popular with tourists (see Figure 2.6). Figure 2.6: Activities Undertaken by Foreign Visitors in % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Shopping Nightlife Social Visiting natural attractions Cultural historical and heritage Beach Wildlife Business Theme park Visited a casino Source: SA Tourism Annual Report 2005 This data was not available for the provinces. 2.3 Domestic Tourism in South Africa, the Eastern Cape and KZN Introduction There are three studies on the domestic tourism market in South Africa: Indaba Fact sheet on 2006 Performance Published for Indaba 2007 based on information from SA Tourism quarterly reports; Annual Report 2005 Published for the first time by SA Tourism and the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, based on monthly household surveys. Survey 2002 to 2003 Published by SA Tourism, based on surveys conducted for the period August 2002 to July 2003; and 13

24 Survey 2000 to 2001 Published by SA Tourism, based on surveys conducted during the period May 2000 to April Unfortunately the methodologies followed for two of the four studies are different and it is therefore difficult to compare the information from these studies. We have included information from all four studies in our analysis Number of Domestic Tourists In 2006, 12 million adult South Africans took an estimated 37 million trips. Table 2.1 provides an indication of the total trips undertaken in South Africa, and to the Eastern Cape, in 2003, 2005 and Information is provided for information and not comparative purposes. Table 2.1 Number of Domestic Trips, 2003, 2005 and Destination Total Trips (SA) 37 million 36,2 million 49,3 million Trips to the Eastern Cape 3,3 million 3,3 million 7,5 million Trips to the Eastern Cape as a % of Total 8,9% 8,5% 15,2% Trips to KZN 11,9 million 11,6 million 13,6 million Trips to KZN as a % of Total 31% 35,9% 14% Source: SA Tourism In 2006, the Eastern Cape received the fourth highest number of trips of all the provinces. This is down from third place in 2003 but is the same as KZN received the highest number of domestic trips in 2006 and this has been a consistent pattern in the various years. SAtourism does not provide data on where exactly in the country domestic visitors to the study area come from. However, the 2005 domestic tourism report shows the breakdown of trips within and outside the various provinces as seen in Figure 2,7 below. 1 Caution! Due to different methodological approaches neither growth nor decline in domestic tourist numbers can be construed from this table. 14

25 Figure 2.7: Domestic trips inter and intra-provincially millions KwaZulu Natal Gauteng Eastern Cape Western Cape Limpopo North West Free State Mpumalanga Northern Cape Inter Provincial Intra Provincial 86% of tourist visiting KwaZulu Natal destinations originate within the province. Similarly 80% of tourists visiting Eastern Cape destinations originate from within the province. There is no recent data available on where the remaining 14% and 20% of domestic visitors to these provinces originate from. The most recent information is from the 2003 provincial reports. Figure 2.8 and Figure 2.9 below show which provinces domestic visitors to KwaZulu Natal and the Eastern Cape originated from in Figure 2.8: Origin of Domestic Tourists to the Eastern Cape millions Eastern Cape Free State Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Limpopo Mpumalanga Northern Cape Northwest Western Cape Source SATourism

26 Figure 2.9: Origin of Domestic Tourists to KwaZulu Natal millions Eastern Cape Free State Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Limpopo Mpumalanga Northern Cape Northwest Western Cape Source SA Tourism 2003 The main sources of visitors for each province are from within the province. In the Eastern Cape the largest numbers of domestic visitors from other provinces are from the Western Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal. In KwaZulu Natal larger numbers of visitors come from the Eastern Cape and Gauteng followed by Mpumalanga Length of Stay by Province 2005 The average length of stay for domestic trips in the Eastern Cape was 3,8 nights in The Length of stay in KZN was only slightly longer at 4,1 nights. (See Figure 2,10). Figure 2.10 Domestic Trip Length of Stay by Province (2005) KZN Gauteng E Cape W Cape Limpopo North West Free State Mpumalanga N Cape South Africa 16

27 2.3.4 Purpose of Domestic Trips Figure 2.11 Purpose of Visit by Province in % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Western Cape Northern Cape Limpopo Eastern Cape North West M pumalanga KwaZulu- Natal Free State Gauteng Total Holiday 23% 19% 18% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 5% 12% VFR 63% 66% 62% 65% 78% 64% 71% 77% 73% 69% Business 9% 7% 13% 6% 5% 9% 4% 8% 10% 6% M edical 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% Religious 3% 8% 7% 17% 6% 12% 14% 7% 9% 10% Figure 2.11 shows the Purpose of Visit by Province in In all provinces VFR is the most frequent purpose of visit Breakdown of Destinations of Domestic Tourists within Provinces: The 2001 domestic survey shows detail of regions in the province where visitors go and why. The percentages for the Eastern Cape are shown in Table 2.2 below. Table 2.2 Types of Trips to the Eastern Cape Destinations Tourism Region Trips % Leisure VFR Business Health Religious Wild Coast/ 43,0 20,4 69,0 1,2 1,6 7,8 Transkei/ Ciskei Friendly N6 22,0 23,6 63,6 2,6 0 10,1 Amatola 6,9 17,1 64,6 0,5 0 17,9 Sunshine Coast & 22,4 37,5 51,1 2,7 0,4 8,3 Country Karoo Heartland 4,8 22,4 58,2 1,4 0,8 17,2 Tsitsikamma 0,7 85,8 14, Total ,3 62,5 1,8 0,8 9,5 Source: SA Tourism

28 The study area in the Eastern Cape falls within two tourism regions namely the Sunshine Coast, where East London has been grouped with Port Elizabeth and Port Alfred, and the Wild Coast/Transkei/Ciskei region. The Wild Coast/Transkei/Ciskei region is the most popular destination for domestic trips, followed by the Sunshine Coast region. The two regions received 2,8 million domestic trips between May 2000 and April 2001, most of which were to visit friends and family. Table 2.3 shows the purpose of visit per region within KwaZulu-Natal. Table 2.3 Types of Trips to KwaZulu-Natal Destinations Tourism Region Trips % Leisure VFR Business Health Religious Battlefields 11,3 8,6 69,7 1,9 5,1 14,8 Drakensberg 2,9 50,8 24,2 16,7 0 8,3 Durban Central 31,3 37,0 44,4 5,2 2,7 10,7 Durban South 5,5 16,8 66,2 0,2 5,0 11,9 Durban North 2,9 23,2 65,9 0 3,1 7,8 Durban Outer West 3,1 3,5 76,5 2,2 5,4 12,4 North Coast 3,7 40,3 47,1 0 0,2 12,4 South Coast 9,6 58,8 33,4 2,0 0,1 0,8 Pietermaritzburg area 11,3 12,5 70,7 1,6 8,0 7,2 Zululand/Vryheid 9,4 24,7 53,8 2,3 5,2 14,1 Maputaland 3,4 29,8 51,9 0,3 0 18,0 East Griqualand 5,7 6,7 81,3 0 3,9 8,1 Total ,0 54,7 3,0 3,6 10,7 Source: SA Tourism 2001 The study area in KwaZulu-Natal falls within three tourism regions namely Durban South (Isipingo, Amanzimtoti to Umkomaas), South Coast (areas south of Umkomaas to Port Edward) and East Griqualand (Kokstad, Matatiele, Cederberg and Swartberg). The three tourism regions received 1,3 million domestic trips between March 2000 and April LSM of Domestic Visitors The age profile of domestic tourists in 2005 was: years 26,2%; years 27,4%; years 20.0%; years 13,3%; 18

29 55-64 years 7,4%; and 65 years and older 5,7%. 72,8% of all trips were undertaken by Africans, 18,4% by whites, 4,2% by Indians and 4,6% by coloureds. The majority of domestic tourists are middle income (Living Standards Measure ( LSM ) 4 to 7) contributing 64% of all tourists. Figure 2.12: LSM Profile of Domestic Tourists in South Africa, 2005 LSM 9 7% LSM 10 8% LSM 1 1% LSM 2 5% LSM 3 6% LSM 8 9% LSM 4 10% LSM 7 9% LSM 5 18% LSM 6 27% Source: 2005 Annual Domestic Tourism Report 2.4 Number of Tourists in the Study Area The information described above was utilised to estimate the number of tourists to the study area (see Annexure B). This estimation serves as a benchmark for the primary research conducted in the study area. Firstly the number of tourists to each province was estimated, based on the provincial share of tourists, as per the national studies. This provincial share was then disaggregated to the regions that most closely represent the study area. The latest available information on the percentage of tourists in different regions of provinces is from We have assumed that the share of tourism within the provincial regions has remained similar to that in the 2001 study. Once the total number of tourists to the study area was estimated, VFR tourists that are unlikely to utilise formal accommodation establishments were eliminated. This left the number of leisure and business tourists that are most likely to utilise tourism products in the study area. Based on the national studies, the study area currently attracts around 2,3 million overnight leisure and business tourists per annum, of whom 52% (or 1,2 million) are 19

30 foreign and 48% (or 1,1 million) are domestic. The portion of the study area, which falls within KwaZulu-Natal, receives around 1,6 million tourists, of which 65% (or 1,05 million) are foreign. The higher number of foreign vs. domestic tourists is due to the high numbers of domestic tourists who go to KwaZulu-Natal for VFR purposes. The portion of the study area which falls within the Eastern Cape receives around tourists, of which only 28% (or ) are foreign. 3. TOURISM PRODUCT SUPPLY 3.1 Introduction The study area offers a wide range of products and extensive tourism appeal to a variety of markets. However the KZN section of the study area differs substantially from the Eastern Cape section. The remoteness and lack of large commercial resort developments in much of the Eastern Cape Wild Coast offers substantial appeal to adventure travellers and eco-tourism enthusiasts. With pristine beaches, rivers and estuaries and rich botanical endemism, the Eastern Cape Wild Coast has many of the makings of a premium eco-tourism destination. The Southern KZN is a substantially developed mainstream tourism destination. Many domestic tourists as well as a number of international tourists frequent this area. Some of the developments in parts of the KZN study area give a sense of density although there are other parts that still offer opportunities to enjoy spacious beaches and lush estuaries. The agricultural development of the Southern KZN is also more intensive leading to a reduction of pristine eco-systems. In order to measure the impact on tourism by the project a database of tourism products in the study area was compiled by utilising the following listings: Buffalo City Tourism; The Eastern Cape Tourism Board; AA Travel Guides; The KwaZulu-Natal Tourism Authority; and Various websites. Interviews with various tourism establishments, tour operators, transport companies and tourism officials were then conducted to compile a profile of tourism in the study area. This profile was used to estimate the number of tourists to the study area. 3.2 Tourism Products Based on primary research with a sample of establishments in the study area, as well as data provided by the tourism authorities, it is estimated that the study area currently 20

31 has 595 accommodation establishments, providing approximately rooms (see Annexure C). At average room occupancy of 64%, around 3,1 million room nights were sold in 2006 in the study area. With an average double occupancy rate of 141% this translates to around 7,6 million bed nights sold. With an average length of stay of 3,9 days, this translates to 2 million tourists to the study area per annum. Based on primary research it is estimated that around 47% (or ) of the tourists were foreign, with 53% (or 1 million) being domestic. Based on the estimated benchmark figure of 2,3 million tourist (with a 52% being foreign and 48% being domestic), estimated from the national tourism studies (see Annexure B), it can be concluded that the primary research estimate of 2 million tourists to the study area is reasonable Section 1: East London to Butterworth Section 1 stretches from (and includes) East London to the Butterworth. Towns and settlements included in this Section are East London, Gonubie, Cinsta, Haga Haga, Morgan Bay and Kei Mouth. The accommodation establishments in Section 1 as per the primary research are summarised in Table 3.1. Table 3.1 Section 1: East London to Butterworth Accommodatio n Type Number of Establis hments Number of Rooms/ Units Average Average Room/ Unit Bednights Room/ Unit Double Nights Sold pa Sold pa Occupancy Occupancy Avg Length of Stay Number of Tourists pa Backpackers % % Game & Nature Reserves % % Guesthouse & B&B % % Hotel/Motel/Inn % % Caravan Parks % % Self-catering % % Total/ Average % % The majority of the 161 tourism accommodation establishments in Section 1 are located in and around East London, and due to this predominance Section 1 attracts mainly business tourists (around 75% of all tourists), with the remainder being holiday tourists. In the coastal resort destinations of Cinsta, Haga Haga, Morgan Bay and Kei Mouth, holiday tourists are more dominant (around 80% of all visitors), with business tourists being mainly conference delegates and travelling sales representatives. The majority of tourists visiting accommodation establishments in Section 1 are domestic (65%), with the remainder being foreign (35%). In East London the foreign visitors are split between holiday and business visitors, while in the resort destinations the foreign visitors are mainly backpackers. 21

32 Tourism attractions in Section 1 include: The beaches of East London, Cinsta, Haga Haga, Morgan Bay, Kei Mouth, etc; Various game and nature reserves; Various museums and monuments; An aquarium; A casino; Various sporting activities such as scuba diving, mountain biking, etc; and Various hiking trails. Potential Impacts on Tourism in Section 1 as a result of the project: Positive Impacts An increase in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route. Increased motivation for the upgrade of secondary roads Negative Impacts Increased access to environmentally sensitive areas. Conclusion The city of East London is well established as a tourism destination amongst its current market of mainly domestic business tourists. As such, it is believed that the project will have a limited impact on East London as a tourist destination. The project may lead to additional transit visitors to East London, but it is not anticipated that this will have a significant impact on tourism developments in the city. The coastal resort destinations have an established domestic holiday market, which tend to be repeat visitors. As the existing N2 will be used to pass through Section 1 and no existing gravel roads will be upgraded by the project, it is unlikely that the project will lead to a significant increase in tourism volumes to the coastal resorts. These resorts are destinations in themselves and although through-traffic volumes on the N2 may increase, it is unlikely that a significant number of transit tourists will utilise these resorts as stopovers. Day visitor attractions along the route will benefit from an increase in visitors as the number of transit visitors increase Section 2: Butterworth to Mthatha Section 2 stretches from Butterworth up to and including Mthatha. Towns and settlements included in this section are Butterworth, Idutywa, Mqanduli, Coffee Bay, Vidgesville, Mthatha, Mazeppa Bay, Qolora Mouth and Qunu. The accommodation establishments in Section 2 as per the primary research are summarised in Table

33 Table 3.2: Section 2 Butterworth to Mthatha Room/ Number of No of Average Unit Accommodation Type Establish Rooms/ Room/ Unit Nights ments Units Occupancy Sold pa Average Double Occupancy Bed Nights Sold pa Avg Length of Stay Number of Tourists pa Backpackers % % Guesthouse & B&B % % Hotel/Motel/Inn % % Self-catering % % Total/ Average % % Based on primary research it is estimated that Section 2 received around tourists in 2006 of which 28% (or ) were foreign and 72% (or ) were domestic. Section 2 is split in market terms between the domestic business market of Mthatha and the domestic holiday market of the coastal resorts between Kei Mouth and Coffee Bay. Accommodation establishments in Mthatha receive mainly domestic business people, government officials, conference delegates and travelling sales representatives that comprise 90% to 95% of their market. The coastal resorts between Kei Mouth and Coffee Bay receive mainly domestic holiday tourists, which comprise around 80% of their market, while the rest is comprised of conference delegates and travelling sales representatives. Utilisation of existing accommodation establishments is at around 64% and highly seasonal. At the coastal resorts the accommodation establishments are busy during the school holiday period (with holiday tourists), while the situation is reversed in Mthatha (due to its business market). Tourism attractions in Section 2 and 3 include: Qunu, the birthplace of former president Nelson Mandela; Nature reserves such as: Dwesa/Cwebe Nature Reserve; Nduli Nature Reserve; Potential Impacts on Tourism in Section 2 and 3 as a result of the project: Positive Impacts An increase in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route; An increase in business tourists to Mthatha as its economy develops due to improved access. Negative Impacts Increased access to environmentally sensitive areas. 23

34 Conclusion The city of Mthatha is an established tourism destination amongst its current market of mainly domestic business tourists. However the city has more to gain from improved access than for example East London. With an increase in transit tourists through Mthatha, it is possible that commercial development will follow, which could lead to an increase in business tourists to the area. Accordingly, it is anticipated that the project will have a positive impact on Mthatha s tourism industry in the long-term. As with the coastal resorts in Section 1, the coastal resort destinations in Section 2 have an established domestic holiday market, which tend to be repeat visitors. As the existing N2 will be used to pass through Section 2 and no existing gravel roads will be upgraded by the project, it is unlikely that the project will lead to a significant increase in tourism volumes to the coastal resorts. These resorts are destinations in themselves and although traffic volumes on the N2 may increase, it is unlikely that a significant number of transit tourists will utilise these resorts as stopovers. Destinations such as Qunu will benefit from the project, as improved access will make the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route more popular. Tour buses will be more willing to travel the route and include a stop-over at Qunu on their trip Section 3 and 4: Mthatha to Ntafufu River Crossing Section 3 & 4 stretches from Mthatha to the Ntafufu River Crossing and includes the destinations of Hluleka Nature Reserve, Umngazi and Port St Johns. The accommodation establishments in Section 3 and 4 as per the primary research are summarised in Table 3.3. Table 3.3: Section 3 and 4: Mthatha to Ntafufu River Crossing Room/ Number of No of Average Unit Accommodation Type Establish Rooms/ Room/ Unit Nights ments Units Occupancy Sold pa Average Double Occupancy Bed Nights Sold pa Avg Length of Stay Number of Tourists pa Backpackers % % Game & Nature Reserves % % Guesthouse & B&B % % Hotel/Motel/Inn % % Resorts/Caravan Parks % % Self-catering % % Total/ Average % % Except for the Hluleka Nature Reserve and Umngazi River Bungalows, all of the accommodation establishments in Section 3 and 4 are in Port St Johns. Throughout Section 3 and 4 the market is equally split between holiday and business tourists (around 50% each). 24

35 Tourism attractions in Section 3 and 4 include: The beaches of Port St Johns, Umngazi, etc; Water sports on the Mzimvubu River; The sardine run; The Hluleka and Silaka Nature Reserves; Potential Impacts on Tourism in Section 3 and 4 as a result of the project: Positive Impacts An increase in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route; Negative Impacts Increased access to environmentally sensitive areas. Conclusion Section 3 and 4 is set to benefit from the project, as the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route will be diverted from the current N2 to pass closer to Port St Johns. This improved access should lead to the development of facilities for transit visitors, such as petrol stations, shops, etc. With this renewed interest tourism will be positively impacted upon Section 5: Ntafufu River to Lusikisiki Section 5 stretches from the Ntafufu River via Lusikisiki to the Magwa Tea Estate Intersection. Towns and settlements included in this section are Lusikisiki and Mbotyi. The accommodation establishments in Section 5 as per the primary research are summarised in Table 3.4. Table 3.4: Tourism Accommodation Supply in Section 5 Accommodation Type Number of Establis hments Number of Rooms/ Units Average Room/ Unit Average Bednights Room/ UnitNights Double Sold pa Occupancy Sold pa Occupancy Avg Length of Stay Number of Tourists pa Guesthouse & B&B % % Hotel/Motel/Inn % % Total/ Average % % Geographically, Section 5 is the smallest of the sections as well as the most underdeveloped. Primary research identified only 4 accommodation establishments in the area, providing 74 rooms/ units and operating on low occupancies. The area attracts predominately domestic (95%) and holiday (85%) tourists. Tourism attractions in Section 6 include: The beaches of Mbotyi; and Various waterfalls, including Magwa Falls, Fraser Falls and Mateku Falls. 25

36 Potential Impacts on Tourism in Section 6 as a result of the project: Positive Impacts An increase in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route; Increase in accessibility of the area. Negative Impacts Increased tourist access to environmentally sensitive regions; Conclusion At present the accommodation establishments in Section 5 are operating on low occupancies. As with Section 3 and 4, the improved access to the area will lead to the development of facilities for transit visitors and the renewed exposure of the area could lead to an increase in holiday and business visitors. The project will have a positive impact on Section 5, as the area of Lusikisiki is well suited for tourism development due the current low levels of development and the scenic beauty of the area Section 6: Lusikisiki to Mthamvuna River Crossing Section 6 stretches from the town of Lusikisiki to the existing Mthamvuna Bridge. Part of this section is in an inaccessible, greenfields section of the Wild Coast. It affects the towns of Flagstaff and Bizana. Table 3.5 below shows the detail of the establishments in the area as determined by primary research. Table 3.5 Section 6 Lusikisiki to Mthamvuna River Crossing Accommodation Type Number Number of of Establishm Rooms/ ents Units Room/ Average Unit Room/ Unit Nights Occupancy Sold pa Average Double Occupancy Bednights Sold pa Avg Length of Stay Number of Tourists pa Game & Nature Reserves % % Guesthouse & B&B % % Hotel/Motel/Inn % % Total/ Average % % Section 6 is largely undeveloped as a tourism destination despite obvious potential although at present the beaches are difficult to access. In terms of tourism the largest development in this section is the Wild Coast Sun Casino resort development, which has a golf course, conference centre and casino. Attractions in the area include: Waterfall Bluff; 26

37 Mfihlelo falls; Wildcoast Sun Casino; Mtentu and Msikaba river gorges; Mkambati Nature Reserve; Shipwrecks; and Beaches and rocky shores of Lupatana and Port Grosvenor. Positive Impacts An increase in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route; Creation of destinations through landmark bridge building and improved access to attractions that were previously difficult to access, such as the Mfilelo falls and Mtentu and Msikaba Gorges. Negative Impacts Increased access to environmentally sensitive areas; Conclusion Establishments in Section 6 are currently destinations in themselves and generate their own business. Improved access to the area will certainly benefit these establishments as like in Section 5 they will be able to intercept transit business and will gain additional exposure Existing N2 Section: To Port Shepstone via Kokstad This section will not be part of the new alignment but is being analysed to show how it could be affected by the diversion of traffic to the new alignment. The Existing N2 Section includes the towns of Qumbu, Mount Frere, Mount Ayliff, Kokstad and Harding. These towns rely primarily on transit through the existing N2 section. Table 3.6 below shows the detail of the establishments in the area as determined by primary research. Table 3.6 Existing N2 Section Accommodation Type Number of Establishm ents Number of Rooms/ Units Average Room/ Unit Occupancy Room/ Unit Nights Sold pa Average Bednights Double Sold pa Occupancy Avg Length of Stay Number of Tourists pa Backpackers % % Game & Nature Reserves % % Guesthouse & B&B % % Hotel/Motel/Inn % % Resorts/Caravan Parks % % Self-catering % % Total/ Average % %

38 Most of the towns in the existing N2 section are undeveloped as tourism destinations. However, Kokstad and Harding have become stop over destinations for the existing N2. Attractions: Isinamva Cultural Village Mount Frere; Ubuntu Craft Market Mount Ayliff (still to become operational); and Nature Reserves. Positive Impacts: None Negative impacts: Loss in numbers of transit tourists to the area and resultant loss of income to facilities for transit tourists; Negligible Impact on the town of Qumbu as there are no known existing tourism enterprises in this town; A negative impact on small tourism enterprises in Mount Frere and Mount Ayliff such as craft markets; Impact on future plans and opportunities for tourism; Impact on business levels in the existing tourism facilities in Kokstad and Harding; and Impact at the regional level on KZN tourism s strategy for the Kokstad area to be a gateway to KZN and the Eastern Cape Section 7 Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange. Section 7 stretches from the Mthamvuna River up to and including Isipingo. It includes amongst others the towns of Port Edward, Margate, Port Shepstone, Scottburgh, Hiberdene, Umkomaas, Amanzimtoti and Isipingo. Table 3.7 below shows the establishments in the area as determined by primary research. Table 3.7 Section 7 Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange Accommodation Type Number Number of of Establishm Rooms/ ents Units Average Room/ Unit Average Bednights Room/ UnitNights Double Sold pa Occupancy Sold pa Occupancy Avg Length of Stay Number of Tourists pa Backpackers % % Game & Nature Reserves % % Guesthouse & B&B % % Hotel/Motel/Inn % % Resorts/Caravan Parks % % Self-catering % % Total/ Average % %

39 Section 7 is a well-established tourism destination that receives mostly foreign tourists (71%) and more holiday tourists than the sections that fall within the Eastern Cape region. This area has the largest number of tourism establishments in the study area. These establishments achieve relatively high occupancies. Attractions in the Section 7: Beaches Watersports, mountain biking and hiking Game and Nature Reserves Cultural Tourism Positive Impacts: An Increase in transit tourists on the Western Cape/Eastern Cape/KZN route Negative Impacts: Possible over-development of existing destinations due to the project, resulting from a perception of increased growth. Conclusion The project is unlikely to have a significant impact on Section 7, as it is already an established tourism destination. There may however, be an increase in transit tourists, which represents a small part of the current market. 3.3 Stakeholder and Specialist Inputs: In the previous study and during the course of this study we have investigated various stakeholder issues Stakeholder, Tour Operator and Accommodation Owner Survey: The survey revealed that the current lack of access is an inhibiting factor to the success of tourism businesses. The majority of respondents felt that improving access to the area was necessary and should happen, as the status quo is not functioning effectively. There were mixed responses regarding the extent to which the condition of roads in the area is an inhibiting factor and to what extent the current plans for the road would be a solution. The majority of the respondents felt that the road would go too close to the coast in the area past the Mkambati Nature Reserve and should instead go further inland as per the route H (Annexure A) but even further inland, completely avoiding the Pondoland centre of endemism would be preferable. Several expressed concerns about loss of habitat for the vulture colonies in the gorges near the reserve and the loss of sensitive eco-systems. The opinion was expressed that these natural resources are tourism 29

40 resources and impacts to them need to be mitigated or avoided. All respondents voiced concern about the increased access to environmentally sensitive areas and the loss of sensitive habitats. The high speed of the road throughout was felt to be a constraint to the growth of tourism businesses as tourists should be encouraged to stop and use facilities instead of just driving through. The condition of secondary gravel roads to many destinations was felt to be a strong deterrent to tourists, and product owners whose businesses depend on these roads felt that although tarring these roads may not be possible, maintaining good condition of the gravel roads is important to tourists being able to access their products. Product owners in the area noted that the road would be of great economic benefit to businesses in the northern Wild Coast but felt that the conservation value was of equal importance. Several tour operators interviewed were struggling to sell tours in the study area. They felt that the some of the deterrents for tourists were, a lack of diverse products, a lack of luxury or high quality products and a perception of safety problems. The lack of access was attributed both to the condition of the roads and the fact that the area is so large and that the nearest commercial airports are in East London and Durban. Some mentioned that improving access and the speed and safety of roads would attract the Durban and South Coast markets into the northern parts of the Wild Coast. Tour operators that have more successful operations in the study area tend to deal chiefly in adventure and eco-tourism tours and trails. They are locally based and collectively handle around tourists a year. Visitors are willing to endure the lack of facilities to experience the unspoilt environment. Eco-tour operators in the Wild Coast were of the opinion that the plans for the road and the mines at Xolobeni were currently affecting eco-tourism business as foreign tourists are under the impression that the area is under threat and may no longer offer the same experience. Tour operators claim that eco-tourism business has been on the increase and that the majority of their clients are foreign tourists. The volumes are still fairly low but tour operators felt that the potential is great if marketing is improved and the global trend towards responsible tourism bears more fruit. Respondents also expressed a need for continuous involvement and awareness of public participation processes High Volume Tourism vs. Eco-Tourism Many respondents expressed mixed feelings about the possibility of the project resulting in the increase in volumes of tourists in the area, noting on the one hand that high volume tourism is important to the economic development in the region, and on 30

41 the other hand higher volumes of tourists and larger tourism developments could, in the long term, cause the region to become something other than what it is currently marketed as: the Wild Coast, an area which has is distinguished by its lack of development and its eco-tourism offerings. Respondents expressed the need for thorough land use planning management of all development in the area that could result from increased access and traffic volumes in order for the Wild Coast to retain its natural heritage. The opinion was also expressed that the Wild Coast SDI project raised the expectations of communities regarding eco-tourism and these expectations have not been met. Some stakeholders felt that this was the reason communities are putting more weight behind other developments as many have given up on eco-tourism as a means of economic growth. For a full list of successful interviews conducted see Annexure G. 31

42 3.3.3 Input from Previous Appeals Process In addition to the survey responses, the scoping report outlined the following tourism issues, which came through from appeals after the previous EIA process: Table 3.8 shows a summary of the issues along with notification as to where in the report the issue has been addressed. Table 3.8 Addressing Stakeholder Concerns and Issues: Issues noted in Scoping Report The potential adverse effects of inappropriate mass tourism on eco-tourism potential of the area Apparently conflicting tourism development philosophies for the Wild Coast region (i.e. high volume mass tourism versus low volume eco-tourism) were not addressed adequately in the previous tourism study; Section where issue is addressed Section Section 5.2 Section Section 5.2 The potential benefits associated with improved accessibility and linkages with local tourism development initiatives; The potential benefits to local economic development, tourism and transport of goods and services Section 4 Section in particular with regards to feeder roads to local community initiatives Assumptions used in projections of visitor numbers from the previous study were questioned (e.g. it is assumed that the demand for accommodation will continue to increase from the high levels attained during construction this is considered unrealistic since tourism demand would drop back to background levels after construction has passed a particular area and will then grow from this lower base) Section

43 Issues noted in Scoping Report The previous study provided no indication how the proposed project would assist access to the Wild Coast by visitors from Gauteng, the area considered to have the largest source of domestic tourists in the country as the tolling is may discourage Gauteng visitors from using the new road The toll gate would have a negative impact on traffic to and from International Airport, especially at rush hours, holidays and conference events; Traffic problems would be created on the M4 and R102 roads, as southbound road users would leave the M4/N2 interchange to avoid the toll. This could create problems for tourism businesses in the area Relevant development control mechanisms along the pristine areas and the coast were inadequately addressed; movement of people to the road would result in, amongst others, felling of natural forests for firewood, threatening of the proposed heritage park and deterioration of the coastal zone environment; undesirable ribbon development would be to the detriment of future eco-tourism programmes and their sustainable benefits The road is inconsistent with the proposed National Park (e.g. noise pollution effects on sensitive fauna). Proposed crossings of the Mzamba, Mnyameni, Mthentu and Msikaba by the road, which are all in sensitive areas, would seriously affect the viability and tourism potential of the proposed National Park; and SANParks expects that the proposed road should not be an inhibitor to the proposed National Park but a support service. Section where issue is addressed Section 4.5 Section 4.6 Section 4.6 Impact of Toll Roads Section 5.3 Section 4.6 Section 5.2 Section 5.3 Section

44 3.3.4 Consideration of other specialist studies There are impacts that will be identified by other specialist studies, which may have a bearing on tourism. As the biophysical environment of the study area is an important tourism resource, negative impacts on the biophysical environment will have an impact on the sustainability of tourism ventures as many of these businesses currently trade on the pristine and isolated environment at the coastal destinations. Economic impacts as a result of increased access such as increased industrial development could also negatively affect tourism ventures that rely on the wild coast being environmentally pristine. The mitigation of impacts on the environment will have positive implications for tourism. Negative visual impacts of the road will probably not have very significant impacts on tourism as most of the tourism is at the coast far from the road. The impacts of an increase in structures due to economic development may affect the perception of the area as a wild destination. However the visual impact of the bridges may have a positive impact on tourism. Negative social impacts of the project, such as the division of communities and communal farming land, are unlikely to impact tourism. However the increase in skills and training through the project (particularly small business training), and the increase in wealth in the area could have a positive impact on tourism, as people are able to improve their homesteads or open up small tourism businesses. 34

45 4. THE IMPACT ON TOURISM 4.1 Introduction In order to determine the project s impact on tourism in the study area, the impact of the project on growth in tourism demand was quantified along with the resulting tourism products that could be developed (see Annexure D and E). Projected growth rates for the various sections were based on the specialist s knowledge of the tourism industry, as well as the primary research conducted in the study area. 4.2 Methodology Future room night demand in a specific market segment, for a given area, can be projected based on levels of current room night demand and forecasts of future demand growth, taking into account past and present growth trends. A comparison of future supply and demand levels yields a projection of average occupancies for the relevant market as a whole. Where the projected occupancy levels exceed expected reasonable annual average room occupancies for accommodation establishments, the extent of excess demand can be used to indicate the total number of additional rooms that the projected demand could support. To quantify the impact of a specific project, the number of additional rooms that could be developed taking the proposed project into account, should be compared to the number of additional rooms that could be developed in the absence of the project. In other words, tourism demand will grow regardless of the project development or in the absence of the project, and this growth needs to be subtracted to isolate the growth in demand due to the project. In the previous EIA model projected growth in demand due to construction activities was the same throughout the study area during the construction phase. In this study, growth in demand due to the project took into account an assumed phased construction in which the projected growth in room night demand due to construction activities will not occur across the entire project area at once, but rather in different sections at different times over the project cycle. The timing is not definitive but addresses stakeholder concerns that growth in demand due to construction was projected as too high in the previous tourism study Risks and Uncertainties in the Growth Model: It should be stipulated that the growth projections are based on a response to market demand. However there are other factors, which could affect growth in tourism development in the area, including but not limited to, the following: 35

46 All tourism developments are subject to EIA s; Tourism developments will have to fit with the Provincial and Municipal policies such as Provincial Growth and Development Strategy and the municipal IDP s and The majority of land in the Wild Coast area is state land administered by tribal authorities, therefore development would need to be community based or with the permission of local authorities; There is a shortage of business skills in the community to start tourism related businesses and there will be a need for skills development; Access to destinations will depend on the building and proper maintenance of feeder roads; A lack of capital in the local communities means that investment largely depends on funding from state organs and international bodies like DEAT and the EU therefore bureaucratic issues could hamper the speed of growth in tourism assets; An eco-tourism mandate could lead to slower growth in tourism assets as conservation management acts as the benchmark for development. Construction activities could possibly lead to avoidance of the area by some tourists during construction. There is uncertainty as to the extent that this will be offset by additional business tourism to the area. Due to these risks projections are made with medium levels of confidence. 4.3 Projected Growth in National Tourism Demand The World Tourism Organisation (WTO) states that tourism in 2007 has grown 6% from the same period in Economic growth in tourism is expected to be almost 5% for 2007 and again for Africa s has had strong growth in 2007 of 8% although it is slightly lower than that of 10% for Experts in the WTO believe that tourism growth in Africa is set to continue at high rates particularly in sub0saharan Africa. The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) provides projections for various countries during their compilation of simulated Tourism Satellite Account, which quantifies the economic impact of tourism in a particular country. The WTTC projects economic growth in global tourism at 4.2% per annum between 2007 and The WTTC also projects that the economic impact of domestic tourism in South Africa will grow from 5,1% in 2006 to 5,4% in 2016, while the economic impact of foreign tourism will grow from 13,9% in 2006 to 14,3% in The economic impact of tourism does include indirect and induced impacts of tourism and is not solely based on growth in tourists. Data from SA Tourism shows that between 2000 and 2006, the compound average growth rate in foreign arrivals has been 7,7%, this is surpassed by the growth from 36

47 2005 and 2006 of 13,9% which is driven mainly by African arrivals. Overseas arrivals grew by a compound average growth rate of 8% between 2005 and Given the projections of the WTTC, the historical data and our knowledge of the tourism industry, it is projected that foreign tourist arrivals to the Study area will grow at around 6% per annum between 2007 and 2016, while domestic tourist trips will grow at around 3,5% per annum over the same period. In the case of foreign tourism, this is slightly lower than the national rates. As the Eastern Cape s tourism performance is usually around the fourth in the country, growth is likely to be slightly slower than in other parts of the country. 4.4 The Planning Context The research for this study revealed that there are many projects and initiatives that have implications for the N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway project. National, provincial and local plans were reviewed, resulting in the following project descriptions. For a full list of documents consulted see Annexure H National and Regional Initiatives The Wild Coast SDI The purpose of the Wild Coast SDI was to unlock the economic potential of the Wild Coast area. It was a partnership between the South African Government, the EU and various other local parastatal organisations and international organisations. The Wild Coast SDI initiative, set the stage for tourism, and community based eco-tourism in particular, to be a key priority for economic development in the Wild Coast. While the success of this project in starting eco-tourism can be debated, a number of other initiatives and plans took up this mandate including the Wild Coast LED initiative and the Municipal Integrated Development Plans. Improved access to the area was a key component of the SDI and tourism development. Pondoland National Park In 2002 it was reported that various parties, including the National Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, the National Department of Land Affairs, the Eastern Cape Tourism Board, Eastern Cape Nature Conservation and the Eastern Cape Development Corporation, were evaluating a proposal by the Wildlife and Environment Society of South Africa (WESSA) to create a ha coastal bioreserve stretching approximately 80 kilometres from the northern bank of the Mzimvubu River to the southern bank of the Mthamvuna River. The park has still not been established and there is some resistance from local communities who feel that the park will hamper economic development. There is also an opinion that dangerous animals may be introduced. The general feeling though is 37

48 that consultation with communities has not been adequate and if it were to improve, support for the park may increase. If the park goes ahead, it will be a good move for tourism development in the region as well as a vital move in conserving the Wild Coast s environmental heritage. Xolobeni Mines The area where the mines will operate is between the Mtentu and Mzamba rivers near Bizana. The Department of Minerals and Energy has accepted the Xolobeni mining right application The Xolobeni mineral lease area extends along a 22-km stretch of coastline and about 1,5 km inland, and covers an area of ha. The expected life of mining operations is said to be between 20 years and 25 years, and it is estimated that the area contains the tenth-largest concentration of titanium-producing heavy minerals, rutile, zircon and ilmenite, in the world. Mining weekly 13/07/07 The mines have been met with opposition from local communities and environmental organisations, chiefly because of the environmental sensitivity and scenic beauty of the area. Opponents to the mine feel that it would be an unsustainable project. Proponents of the mine argue that the condition for being granted the right is that the land is rehabilitated after. Eco-tourism is also felt to have a lesser economic impact than the mines in an area in desperate need of job creation. The mining may bring opportunities to the tourism businesses in the area through the larger volumes of people travelling through the area to work on the mines. However the success of the mines to tourism depends on the extent to which in the short term local eco-tourism is able to adapt their products to avoid the mined area and how the mines manage their environmental impacts, and in the long term how well the mined areas are rehabilitated. Wild Coast Conservation and Sustainable Development Project: The project is a joint effort of DEAT, Eastern Cape Province s Department of Economic Affairs and Tourism, and the Wilderness Foundation. The objective of the project was to set up a planning framework that would uphold the values of sustainable development. The main priorities for the project were to create benefits for local communities, while maintaining the unique attributes of the Wild Coast. The project provided assistance to local and district municipalities in creating relevant planning frameworks for the area. All the District IDP s in the Wild Coast area have identified tourism as a key economic development priority. The project resulted in the creation of a Strategic Environmental Assessment to inform future planning and development in the area. This project may have a positive affect on the type of tourism developments that are permitted in the area as it identifies the 38

49 maintenance of sensitive habitats and sense of place as a priority over mass tourism developments Provincial Plans There are several provincial plans and strategies directed at the development of tourism in the study area including: The KwaZulu Natal Tourism Product Development Strategy: This document provides strategic direction to tourism development in the KwaZulu Natal province. It supports the development of infrastructure that will enable the growth of tourism products. However it doesn t make direct statements regarding the relevance or impact of the N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway. The KwaZulu Natal Tourism Strategy : This strategy outlines the directives of the organisation. The document does not make reference to infrastructure projects. The Eastern Cape Tourism Boards Destination Management Strategy: This document mainly serves to guide destination branding and marketing for the province and outlines the functions of the East Cape Tourism Board. The project does not conflict with the mandate of the organisation which is in support of the development of infrastructure that will support tourism development. The document notes access to the Wild Coast region as a key challenge for creating wider distribution of tourists to the area and that the proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway will be actively pursued as a strategy to improve access in the region. The Agreement document for the recent Eastern Cape Tourism Summit: The summit involved many Eastern Cape tourism stakeholders and gave clear support for the construction of the N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway in order to further develop tourism in the region. Wild Coast Tourism Development Strategy: This strategy restricts the development of tourism to a number of nodes including: o Mzamba o Port St Johns o Umtata Mouth o Coffee Bay o Mazeppa Bay o Qolora Mouth o Msikaba o Mbotyi o Mngazi o Mngazana 39

50 o Presley s Bay/Lwandile o Sinangwana o Hole In the Wall o Breezy Point o Mbashe o Qwora Mouth o Cebe o Wavecrest o Kobonqaba/ Mound Point It also recommends that some nodes be developed specifically as eco-tourism destinations Local Plans As well as provincial plans, there are district, metropolitan and local plans which discuss the development of tourism in the study area including: ORThambo District Municipality IDP: This document outlines the overall development strategy of the district. Tourism is one of the key focus areas for economic development in the municipality. The development of the N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway is considered necessary for the development of tourism as an economic sector. Amathole District Municipality IDP: Tourism development is one of the key strategic thrusts of the district. Ugu District Municipality IDP: This document outlines development strategies for the district. In regards to tourism it promotes the development of hard infrastructure tourism development including plans to improve tourism signage, beautify the area and improve boat and air access to the area. Various development corridors are outlined which exclude the N2. Alfred Nzo Municipality IDP: This document outlines development priorities for the Alfred Nzo district. The current existence of the N2 through route in this municipality is seen as an opportunity and strategies are developed with this in mind. Therefore the planned diversion of the route could conflict with the strategies and projects in the IDP. In addition many of the poverty relief projects proposed by the municipality are tourism related and a reduced flow of tourists due to the project may negatively impact these projects. Sisonke District Municipality IDP: The Sisonke District Municipality IDP has a vision to create a vibrant tourism sector and various small projects in support of these. It is likely that the diversion of traffic from the N2 could have a negative impact on the viability of tourism initiatives in the area. 40

51 Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality Tourism Master Plan: This plan outlines the directives for tourism in the Buffalo City Area. Its strategies include the creation of strategic partnerships to advance tourism development in the area. The focus is also on transforming the tourism sector and redistributing the advantages of the tourism economy to the previously disadvantaged. Great Kei Local Municipality: The development of the N2 has key implications for access to coastal tourism developments. King Sabata Dalinyebo Municipality: Qunu has been identified as a tourism node along the N2. Inquza Hill Municipality (Formerly Qaukeni Municipality): Mbotyi and Msikaba have been identified as tourism nodes by national plans. Access to the coast from the N2 is noted as a constraint for the development of these tourism nodes. Construction of feeder roads around Magwa falls through SANRALS community public works project: Of particular relevance to tourism is the construction of secondary roads that could create links between the Wild Coast N2 Toll Road, the Magwa falls and the local communities in the area. The roads are to be designed in such a way that they expose the communities to tourist traffic and the tourists to the scenic beauty of the area. 4.5 Cumulative Impacts of Development Projects and the Proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway The above mentioned development projects will in most cases positively increase the significance of the impact of the proposed N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway project. The exceptions include all development projects in the Sisonke and Alfred Nzo District Municipalities in which the cumulative impact will be an increase in the significance of negative impacts of the project. However all impacts are significant should the above projects and initiatives not take place therefore the cumulative impacts are considered in the section Projected Impact on Tourism in the Study Area In Annexure C it was projected that the study area received around 2 million tourists in 2006 and given an average length of stay of 3,9 days, around 7,6 million bed nights were sold. With a double occupancy rate (i.e. the extent to which rooms/units are occupied by more than one person) of 141%, this translates to 3,1 million rooms/ units 41

52 sold or a daily room/ unit demand of around rooms/ units. Given the current supply of over rooms/ units in the study area, a room/ unit occupancy of 64% was achieved. To project the additional number of rooms/ units that could be developed in the study area, the growth in tourism demand for each section in the absence of the project was projected (see Annexure D). The growth in tourism demand for each section taking the project into account was then projected (see Annexure E). The difference between the two projections is the quantification of the impact of the project (see Annexure F). In projecting the growth in tourism demand in each section, the following was taken into account: The growth in tourism on a national basis; The existing tourism products; The potential for development; and The path of the proposed project. It was assumed that: Construction on the project will start in 2009 and that the phased construction period will last for 3 years. Accordingly the project will be completed at the end of 2011; Construction will start at East London in the early phases and end in Isipingo at the later stages and business tourism will increase when construction starts in a certain area; New tourism products will be developed in a specific section once the average room/ unit occupancy rate has reached the 70% per annum level; The average length of stay and double occupancy will remain the same over the forecast period; and Tourism demand in the various sections will grow at the projected baseline growth rates of 6% for foreign tourism and 3,5% for domestic tourism in the absence of the project. The projected number of additional overnight tourists that will visit the study area due to the proposed project is shown in Table 4.1 (see Annexure F) 42

53 Table 4.1 Additional Tourists due to the Project Phased Construction Project Operation Total Section 1: East London to Butterworth Section 2: Butterworth to Mthatha Section 3 & 4: Mthatha to Ntafufu River Section 5 Ntafufu River to Lusikisiki Section 6: Lusikisiki to Mthamvuna River Existing N2: To Port Shepstone via Kokstad Section 7: Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange Total Study Area The projected number of additional rooms that could be added to the study area as a result of the project is shown in table 4.2. Table 4.2 Additional Rooms/Units due to the Project Phased Construction Project Operation Total Section 1: East London to Butterworth Section 2: Butterworth to Mthatha Section 3 & 4: Mthatha to Ntafufu River Section 5 Ntafufu River to Lusikisiki Section 6: Lusikisiki to Mthamvuna River Existing N2: To Port Shepstone via Kokstad Section 7: Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange Total Study Area It is projected that over the forecast period, the project could contribute to the development of 1075 new rooms/ units in the study area. Following the four or five years of project operation the growth rates level off to standard levels. It should be noted that the development of rooms/ units might not happen in each year as projected as one large project may be developed in a year followed by 1 or 2 years of no development as demand catches up with supply. All sections show much potential for tourism development, but in Section 5, low levels of development have been projected. This is due to the current low occupancies being achieved in this area and the assumption that future tourism demand will first be taken up by existing facilities before new facilities will be developed. 43

54 It is acknowledged that the tourism demand in the Section 5 area may be low due to a lack of existing facilities and that a projection of future demand levels from the existing utilisation does not take into account the fact that the development of new facilities may increase tourism demand in that area i.e. supply leads to demand. However, the overwhelming majority of possible new developments have been covered by the projections and any new development in areas that currently achieve no or little tourism demand (and have the potential for supply to lead demand), are likely to be small developments that will not have a significant impact on the total number of projected rooms/ units. On the existing N2 route, tourism businesses in the towns of Kokstad and Harding rely on transit tourists. With the development of the toll road it is less likely that large numbers of tourists will stop in the area. This may result in a decrease in tourism numbers and a resulting decrease in the growth of tourism products. However this decrease will be low as only 25 fewer rooms will be built in the area. While the diversion of the N2 is a lost opportunity, we believe that with the correct mitigation measures such as marketing the existing route as a tourism route, and investment in tourism infrastructure in the towns of Qumbu, Mount Ayliff and Mount Frere, the project will have less of a negative impact on growth in overnight tourists (see Annexure D) and may even have a positive impact on tourism. However these mitigation measures are beyond the scope of the project and rely on the local tourism authorities. Also, depending on the final cost of toll fees, this route may be utilised in order to avoid heavy toll fees, this is particularly the case for domestic tourists to Gauteng who may prefer to visit the central areas of the Wild Coast in order to avoid paying toll fees. Section 8 is already an established tourism destination therefore we do not anticipate that the project will have an impact on growth in the area. 4.6 Assessment of Alternatives Do Nothing Alternative The number of additional room nights as a result of the project gives some indication of the result of the do nothing alternative. Namely that if the project is not implemented there will be a loss in potential room night demand which will have a negative impact on tourism. In their current state the routes in the area discourage travellers due to both perceived and real safety issues, such as bad marking of hazards and inconsistent fencing which allows animals onto the road and busy pedestrian and vehicular traffic in and around 44

55 towns. These conditions don t discourage independent adventure travellers who still make regular use of the area. However the introduction of better route conditions is likely to attract more of all types of travellers rather than deterring some and attracting others particularly if nature reserve areas remain as prolific as they are currently and there will still be an abundance of remote areas. The do nothing alternative is therefore considered to provide significantly less benefit to tourism than other alternatives. Site Specific Alignments The feasible alternatives identified in the scoping report include the following sitespecific alternative route alignments in the greenfields sections of the proposed project, i.e. in the sections between Ndwalane and Ntafufu and between Lusikisiki and the Mthamvuna River, are as follows: for the proposed alignment between Ndwalane and the Mzimvubu River; for the proposed alignment in the vicinity of Ntafufu village and the Ntafufu River; for the proposed alignment of the approach to the Msikaba bridge crossing site; for the proposed alignment across the Mthentu River; and for the proposed alignment across the Mnyameni River. The above site specific alignments are unlikely to have a different impact on tourism faciltities than the SANRAL preferred route as no current tourism facilities are directly affected by the site specific alignments. The Coastal Mzamba alternative (Route H) will not have a different impact on tourism growth than the SANRAL preferred route except that it will contain more of the Pondoland National Park east of the road. However other specialist studies have indicated that this route would have a more negative impact on the environment, in particular a significant wetland resource, which negates any tourism benefits, as tourism depends on environmental resources. With proper planning the route doesn t have to be a barrier to expansion of the park. For example routes off the toll road into the park, signage to attractions within the park and prohibitions on development along the route could support the viability of the Pondoland park. 4.7 Impact of Toll Fees A potential impact of the proposed project is that of the increased cost, through the payment of toll fees, to tourists utilising the road. Based on research conducted by transport agencies in other parts of the world such as Scotland and the United States, the tolling doesn t negatively affect user flows and works to the contrary in cases where transport conditions improve. It is the specialists conclusion therefore that the tolling will have an insignificant impact on tourism flows. Tourists see tolling as a normal travelling expense and would be willing to pay the toll fee if the route represents a significant savings of time and energy costs. 45

56 However many tourists are travelling to the area to stay with friends and relatives and the toll fees may affect the willingness of these tourists to travel as it represents a higher proportion of the overall travel costs. This may have an impact on day tourism facilities such as petrol stations and shops, but will not impact on overnight facilities. Tourists from Gauteng may also find the toll fee a reason to avoid the route, as there are shorter routes to parts of the Wild Coast which will not be tolled. However the road would be the most accessible route to the northern parts of the Wild Coast, which could become a significant attraction should the Pondoland National Park be founded. It is very likely that the road will be a significant scenic route due to the majestic and beautiful landscapes it traverses therefore people may be more willing to pay toll fees to travel this way. The specialist maintains that tolling will not have an impact on the development of the overnight tourism industry in any of the sections of the proposed project and accordingly the impacts have not been assessed under each section. Furthermore, economic issues around the impact of tolling will be investigated more thoroughly in the intent to toll process and not in this EIA process. 4.8 Assessment of Tourism Impacts in the Study Area To assess the tourism impacts in the study area standard rating scales as provided by CCA Environmental have been utilised. The rating scales are described in detail in the TOR for specialists provided by CCA Environmental and in Table 4.3 a summary of the rating scales are provided. Table 4.3 Summary of Ratings Scales CRITERIA RATING SCALES Intensity Negligible (The expected magnitude or Low - where the impact affects the environment in such a way that natural, cultural and size of the impact) social functions and processes are minimally affected Medium - where the affected environment is altered but natural, cultural and social functions and processes continue albeit in a modified way; and valued, important, sensitive or vulnerable systems or communities are negatively affected High - where natural, cultural or social functions and processes are altered to the extent that it will temporarily or permanently cease; and valued, important, sensitive or vulnerable systems or communities are substantially affected Extent (The predicted scale of the impact) Site-specific Local (immediate surrounding areas) Regional (Eastern Cape or KwaZulu-Natal) National Duration (The predicted lifetime of the impact) Short-term (0 to 5 years) Medium term (6 to 15 years) Long term (16 to 30 years) - where the impact will cease after the operational life of the activity either because of natural processes or by human intervention 46

57 CRITERIA Probability (The likelihood of the impact occurring) Status of the impact Degree of confidence (The specialist s degree of confidence in the predictions and/or the information on which it is based) RATING SCALES Permanent - where mitigation either by natural process or by human intervention will not occur in such a way or in such a time span that the impact can be considered transient Improbable where the possibility of the impact materialising is very low Probable where there is a good possibility (<50% chance) that the impact will occur Highly probable where it is most likely (50-90% chance) that the impact will occur Definite where the impact will occur regardless of any prevention measures (>90% chance of occurring) Here it is stated whether the impact is positive (a benefit ), negative (a cost ) or neutral Low Medium High Table 4.4 Summary of Significance Scales SIGNIFICANCE RATING VERY HIGH Significance DESCRIPTION (in terms of intensity, extent and duration) Impacts could be: EITHER of high intensity at a regional level and endure in the long term; OR of high intensity at a national level in the medium term; OR of medium intensity at a national level in the long term. HIGH Significance MEDIUM Significance LOW Significance VERY LOW Significance Impacts could be: EITHER of high intensity at a regional level and endure in the medium term; OR of high intensity at a national level in the short term; OR of medium intensity at a national level in the medium term; OR of low intensity at a national level in the long term; OR of high intensity at a local level in the long term; OR of medium intensity at a regional level in the long term. Impacts could be: EITHER of high intensity at a local level and endure in the medium term; OR of medium intensity at a regional level in the medium term; OR of high intensity at a regional level in the short term; OR of medium intensity at a national level in the short term; OR of medium intensity at a local level in the long term; OR of low intensity at a national level in the medium term; OR of low intensity at a regional level in the long term. Impacts could be: EITHER of low intensity at a regional level and endure in the medium term; OR of low intensity at a national level in the short term; OR of high intensity at a local level and endure in the short term; OR of medium intensity at a regional level in the short term; OR of low intensity at a local level in the long term; OR of medium intensity at a local level and endure in the medium term. Impacts could be: 47

58 SIGNIFICANCE RATING NOT APPLICABLE DESCRIPTION (in terms of intensity, extent and duration) EITHER of low intensity at a local level and endure in the medium term; OR of low intensity at a regional level and endure in the short term; OR of low to medium intensity at a local level and endure in the short term. No impact. For each section the impact on tourism due to the project has been assessed, i.e. any impacts that would occur irrespective of the proposed project s development have been excluded. Please note that mitigation measures refer to the minimisation of negative impacts. The development of the tourism industry is seen as a positive impact and the mitigation measures in most cases refer to optimisation strategies i.e. measures to enhance the positive impacts Section 1: East London to Butterworth Increase in growth in overnight tourists The study shows that during construction and operation, the project will definitely result in stronger growth in overnight tourists to Section 1. During construction this will be an increase in people working on the road and after the increase will be due to an improvement in road access. This increase in growth will be limited to the short-term (5 years or less) as growth rates return to standard growth levels after 4 years of full operation of the project. Based on the primary research and the specialists experience in the tourism industry, there is high confidence (i.e. more than 90% sure of the fact) that there will be growth in overnight tourists and that it will be beneficial (i.e. long-term and substantial benefit) to the study area in light of economic development and job creation. The impact will be low intensity and the significance of the impact during construction is very low, and during operation low, as the increase in growth in overnight tourists to the Section 1 will only result in short- to medium term effects. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and product development, the higher than standard growth in overnight tourists to Section 1 could be prolonged to be very beneficial to the study area, which will be have a medium significance for Section 1. It is likely that these optimisation measures will occur as municipalities in the area as well as the East Cape Tourism Board have given priority to tourism promotion and product development. 48

59 Table 4.5 Section 1: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High Increase in growth in tourism products Due to the increased growth in overnight tourists to Section 1, there will definitely be an increase in the growth of tourism products, which will be a low intensity impact. The growth in tourism products relates to the rates of growth of the tourism products for example an hotel may experience higher rates of growth with the proposed toll road than without it. This increase in growth in tourism products will be limited to the shortterm as growth rates return to standard growth rates in the medium to long-term. As with the increase in the growth in overnight tourists, it is certain that this impact will definitely occur and that it will be beneficial to the study area. The significance of the increase in growth in tourism products is very low during construction as existing products will absorb growing occupancies and low during operation, as the impact will only occur in the short- to medium-term. Again, with optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion, and product development the impact could be prolonged (higher than standard growth rates could be maintained) with a medium intensity and with a medium significance to Section 1. It is likely that optimisation will occur as this has been noted as a priority of the relevant authorities, and there are a number of nodes identified in the section which have been targeted for tourism product development. Table 4.6 Section 1: Impact of increased growth in tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High 49

60 Increase in the number of tourism products The growth in the number of tourism products as a result of the project will definitely lead to an increase in the number of tourism products in Section 1. The growth in the number of tourism products relates to the amount of tourism products in the study area for example 2 hotels may be developed in the study area instead of just one due to the proposed toll road or an hotel and tour operating company may develop. This increase in the number of tourism products is likely to start after construction and will be permanent. It is certain that it will definitely occur. It will be a low intensity impact. It will be beneficial to Section 1 in terms of economic development and job creation and the significance to Section 1 will be low. With added tourism promotion and product development, the significance could be raised to medium. Growth in the number of tourism products is likely to occur for the same reasons as mentioned for the growth in tourism products. However there is a risk that this could be inhibited by restrictions on development rights therefore the confidence in the impact being enhanced with mitigation is medium. Table 4.7 Section 1: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance N/A N/A Low Medium Status Neutral Neutral Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High Medium Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route It is anticipated by the technical team that traffic on the N2 route will increase by: 4,5% between ; 4,0% between 2010 and 2020; 3,0% between 2020 and 2030; and 2,0% between 2030 and Given that domestic tourism will grow at around 3.5% per annum and that, it is safe to assume that transit tourists on the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route will definitely grow (The growth rate may be around 2-3% per annum). During construction the impact will be low intensity. During operation this impact will be of medium intensity and endure in the medium-term (between 5 to 20 years), i.e. transit tourists to Section 1 will continue to grow at around 2-3% per annum until the road s maximum carrying capacity is reached. It is probable that this growth could be 50

61 maintained in the short to medium term and that the impact will be beneficial to Section 1 in terms of the development of transit facilities such as tourist shops, petrol stations, etc. The significance of the impact will be medium for Section 1 but with optimisation strategies could be improved to high. Table 4.8 Section 1: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Medium Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Medium Medium Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance Very Low Low Medium High Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium Section 2: Butterworth to Mthatha Increase in growth in overnight tourists As with Section 1, it is projected that the project will definitely result in stronger growth in overnight tourists to Section 2. This increase in growth will be limited to the shortterm (5 years or less) as growth rates return to standard growth levels after 4 years of full operation of the project. It is with high confidence that the increased growth in overnight tourists will definitely occur and that it will be of benefit to the study area. The significance of the impact is very low during construction as there will be smaller increases in tourists over a shorter period, and low during operation as the impact will only result in short- to medium term effects. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and tourism product development the impact could be improved to be of medium significance to the study area in that the impacts will be medium term and of medium intensity. It is likely that this impact will occur as both provincial and local plans identify areas for tourism development in this section. 51

62 Table 4.9 Section 2: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High Increase in growth in tourism products There will definitely be an increase in the growth of tourism products in Section 2 and this increase will be limited to the short-term as growth rates return to standard growth rates in the medium to long-term. Based on the primary research and the specialist s knowledge of the tourism industry there is high confidence that this impact will definitely occur and that it will be of low intensity and of benefit to the study area. As the impact will only occur in the short- to medium-term, the significance of the increase in growth in tourism products is rated as low and during construction very low as there will be lower growth for a shorter time during this period. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and tourism product development, the impact could be prolonged and be of a medium significance to Section 2. It is likely that these mitigation measures will occur as tourism planning for Section 2 shows a commitment to tourism product development. Table 4.10 Section 2: Impact of increased growth in tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High Increase in the number of tourism products The growth in tourism products in Section 2 will definitely lead to an increase in the number of tourism products and this increase will be permanent. This growth is likely to occur after construction. The primary research and the specialist s knowledge of the tourism industry give high confidence that the impact will definitely occur. It will be of 52

63 benefit to Section 2 in terms of economic development and job creation and the significance to Section 2 will be medium. There is medium confidence that optimisation measures will occur and that these optimisation measures will result in the significance of the impact being increased to high. Optimisation measures include tourism product development and tourism promotion. Table 4.11 Section 2: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Medium Low Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance N/A N/A Medium High Status Neutral Neutral Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route As explained under Section 1, the specialist has medium confidence that transit tourists on the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route will probably grow and this impact will be of low intensity during construction and be a medium to longterm impact, on Section 2. It is probable that most of this growth will occur after construction and that the impact will be of benefit to Section 2 in terms of the development of transit facilities such as tourist shops, petrol stations, etc. The significance of the impact will be medium for Section 2 and with mitigation factors the significance could be increased to high i.e. the impact could have a permanent rather than just medium-term effect. Table 4.12 Section 2: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Medium Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Medium Medium Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance Very Low Low Medium High Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium 53

64 4.8.3 Section 3 and 4: Mthatha to Ntafufu River Crossing Increase in growth in overnight tourists There is high confidence that the growth in overnight tourists to Section 3 and 4 will be stronger due to the project, but this increase in growth will be limited to the short-term as growth rates stabilise to standard growth levels. The increased growth in overnight tourists will definitely occur and it will be beneficial to the study area with a low intensity. The significance of the impact is low and during construction very low as this is a shorter time period. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and tourism product development the higher than standard growth in overnight tourists to Section 3 and 4 could be prolonged to be medium term with a medium intensity impact to the study area, which will have a medium significance for Section 3 and 4. It is likely that these optimisation measures will be implemented as strategies to develop tourism are already in practice in section 3. Table 4.13 Section 3 & 4: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High Increase in growth in tourism products Due to the increased growth in overnight tourists to Section 3 and 4, there will definitely be an increase in the growth of tourism products in Section 3 and 4. This increase in growth in tourism products will be limited to the short-term as growth rates stabilise in the medium to long-term. The intensity of the impact will be low, it is certain that this impact will definitely occur and that it will be beneficial to the study area in light of economic development and job creation. The significance of the impact during construction is very low as the time period is shorter and the impacts as a result of construction activities will be less intense. The significance of the increase in growth in tourism products is low, as the impact will only occur in the short- to medium-term. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion, and tourism product development the impact could be prolonged (higher than standard growth rates could be maintained), with a medium significance to Section 3 and 4. This impact is likely to occur as tourism development has been prioritised in these sections. 54

65 Table 4.14 Section 3 & 4: Impact of increased growth in tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High Increase in the number of tourism products There is high confidence that growth in tourism products will definitely lead to an increase in the number of tourism products in Section 3 and 4 and this increase will be permanent. It will have a medium intensity impact and it will be very beneficial to Section 3 and 4 in terms of economic development and job creation. The significance to Section 3 and 4 will be medium as the impact will be permanent. This impact will occur after construction. With mitigation and optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and tourism product development the impact could be increased to high significance. However due to various development restrictions on new tourism products confidence that mitigation measures will have an impact on the number of tourism products is reduced to medium. Table 4.15 Section 3 & 4: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Medium Low Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance N/A N/A Medium High Status Neutral Neutral Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High Medium 55

66 Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route There is medium confidence that transit tourists on the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route will grow and this impact will be medium-term, i.e. transit tourists to Section 3 and 4 will continue to grow until the road reaches its maximum carrying capacity. The intensity of the impact is medium during operation but low during construction as the growth in transit may be affected by construction activities. It is probable that this growth will occur and that the impact will be of benefit to Section 3 and 4. The significance of the impact will be medium and with mitigation factors such as tourism promotion the significance could be increased to high. Table 4.16 Section 3 & 4: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Medium Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Medium Medium Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance Very Low Low Medium High Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium Impact of increased access to environmentally sensitive areas on the sustainability eco-tourism ventures There is medium confidence that increased access to environmentally sensitive areas will occur in Section 3 and 4 and this access will be permanent. It is probable that this increased access will occur and that the impact will be of medium intensity. The significance is medium. Possible mitigation measures could include access control measures such as fencing and blockading in certain areas. However it is probable that the access will be enabled and result in damage to environmentally sensitive areas through activities such as harvesting of traditional plants, grazing and the spread of alien plants. Therefore with mitigation the impact on eco-tourism ventures remains of medium intensity. 56

67 Table 4.17 Section 3 & 4: Impact of Increased Access to environmentally sensitive areas on the sustainability of eco-tourism ventures IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Medium Medium Medium Medium Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance Low Low Medium Medium Status Cost Cost Cost Cost Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium Section 5: Ntafufu River Crossing to Lusikisiki Increase in growth in overnight tourists Our study shows that the project will definitely result in stronger growth in overnight tourists to Section 5, but this increase in growth will be limited to the short-term. Based on our primary research it is certain that the increased growth in overnight tourists will definitely occur and that it will be beneficial. The intensity of the impact is low, and the significance is low, as the increase in growth in overnight tourists to the Section 5 will only result in short- to medium term effects. During construction the significance is very low as it is a shorter time period. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and tourism product development the higher than standard growth in overnight tourists to Section 5 could be prolonged to the medium term to be a medium intensity impact to the study area, with a medium significance for Section 5. It is likely that these mitigation measures will occur as several plans identify areas for tourism growth in this section. Table 4.18 Section 5: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High Increase in growth in tourism products Due to the increased growth in overnight tourists to Section 5, there will definitely be an increase in the growth of tourism products in Section 5. This increase in growth in 57

68 tourism products will be limited to the short-term as growth rates stabilise in the medium to long-term. The intensity of the impact will be low, it is certain that this impact will definitely occur and that it will be beneficial to the study area in light of economic development and job creation. The significance of the increase in growth in tourism products is low, as the impact will only occur in the short- to medium-term. During construction the significance of the impact of the growth in tourism products is very low as it will be a shorter time period and more localised. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and tourism product development, the impact could be prolonged (higher than standard growth rates could be maintained), with a medium significance to Section 5. It is definite that these optimisation measures will occur as this section has various plans committed to tourism development. Table 4.19 Section 5: Impact of increased growth in tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High Increase in the number of tourism products There is high confidence that growth in tourism products will definitely lead to an increase in the number of tourism products in Section 5 and this increase will be permanent. It will have a medium intensity impact and it will be very beneficial to Section 5 in terms of economic development and job creation. The significance to Section 5 will be medium as the impact will be permanent. The significance could be improved to high with optimisation strategies such as tourism product development and tourism promotion. However due to risks such as development controls confidence in optimisation measures occurring is medium. 58

69 Table 4.20 Section 5: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Medium Low Probability Definite Definite Definite Probable Significance N/A N/A Medium High Status Neutral Neutral Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High Medium Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route Based on the growth in traffic volumes as well as the growth in domestic tourism, transit tourists on the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route through Section 5 will definitely grow. This impact will be of medium intensity and will endure in the medium-term, as the traffic volumes will level out. It is probable that this growth could be maintained in the short to medium term and that the impact will be of benefit to Section 5 in terms of the development of transit facilities such as tourist shops, petrol stations, etc. The significance of the impact will be medium for Section 5. The impact during construction will be of very low significance but with mitigation measures such as environmental management could be improved to low. With mitigation factors such as tourism promotion the significance could be increased to high i.e. the impact could have a permanent effect. It is probable that these mitigation factors will occur as tourism development is a priority in this section. Table 4.21 Section 5: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Medium Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Medium Medium Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance Very Low Low Medium High Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium 59

70 Impact of increased access to environmentally sensitive areas on the sustainability eco-tourism ventures Increased access to environmentally sensitive areas may occur in Section 5 and this access will be permanent. It is probable that this increased access will occur and that the intensity of the impact will be medium. During construction the significance is low as the construction impacts are short term. Possible mitigation measures could include access control measures such as fencing and blockading in certain areas or placing restrictions on the number of people utilising conservation areas. However it is probable that access control will be difficult to implement and that access to sensitive areas will be enabled regardless and result in damage to environmentally sensitive areas such as harvesting of traditional plants, grazing and the spread of alien plants. Therefore with mitigation the impact on ecotourism ventures remains of medium intensity. Table 4.22 Section 5: Impact of Increased Access to environmentally sensitive areas on the sustainability of eco-tourism ventures IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Medium Medium Medium Medium Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance Low Low Medium Medium Status Cost Cost Cost Cost Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium Section 6: Lusikisiki to Mthamvuna River Increase in growth in overnight tourists Based on the research the project will definitely result in stronger growth in overnight tourists to Section 6, but this increase in growth will be limited to the short-term as growth rates return to standard growth levels after 4 years of full operation of the project. It is certain that the increased growth in overnight tourists will definitely occur and that it will be beneficial to the study area in light of economic development and job creation. The intensity of the impact is low and the significance of the impact is low, as the increase in growth in overnight tourists to the Section 6 will only result in short- to medium term effects. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and tourism product development the higher than standard growth in overnight tourists to Section 6 could be prolonged to be more beneficial to the study area, which will have a medium 60

71 significance for Section 6. It is likely that these optimisation measures will be put in place as tourism development is a key priority in the area. Table 4.23 Section 6: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High Increase in growth in tourism products Due to the increased growth in overnight tourists to Section 6, there will definitely be an increase in the growth of tourism products. This increase in growth in tourism products will be limited to the short-term as growth rates return to standard growth rates in the medium to long-term. The impact of growth in tourism products will be of low intensity. As with the increase in the growth in overnight tourists, it is certain that this impact will definitely occur and that it will be beneficial to the study area. The significance of the increase in growth in tourism products is low, as the impact will only occur in the short- to medium-term. During construction the significance of the impact will be very low. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion, and tourism product development the impact could be prolonged (higher than standard growth rates could be maintained) and be very beneficial, with a medium significance to Section 6. There is high confidence that these optimisation measures will be implemented as tourism development is a key priority in Section 6. Table 4.24 Section 6: Impact of increased growth in tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Short Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Low Medium Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance Very Low Very Low Low Medium Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High High 61

72 Increase in the number of tourism products The growth in tourism products will definitely lead to an increase in the number of tourism products in Section 6. This increase in the number of tourism products will be permanent as these establishments are unlikely to be destroyed. These establishments may close down from time to time but the number of establishments will grow or at least remain the same with standard tourism growth in the area in the medium to long term. The intensity of this impact is medium. Based on our research and our knowledge of the tourism industry it is certain that the impact will definitely occur and it will be very beneficial to Section 6 in terms of economic development and job creation. The significance to Section 6 will be medium. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and development the significance will be high although due to risks such as development restrictions there is medium confidence that optimisation strategies will have an impact on the number of tourism products. Table 4.25 Section 6: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Medium Low Probability Definite Definite Definite Probable Significance N/A N/A Medium High Status Neutral Neutral Benefit Benefit Confidence High High High Medium Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route Transit tourists on the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route through Section 6 will definitely grow and this impact will be medium-term due to the road s carrying capacity constraints. It is probable that this growth could be maintained in the medium term and the impact will be of benefit to Section 6. The significance of the impact during construction will be very low. The significance of the impact will be medium for Section 6. With mitigation factors such as tourism promotion and development the significance could be increased to high. It is likely that these mitigation factors will occur as tourism development is a priority in the area. 62

73 Table 4.26 Section 6: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Medium Term Medium Term Intensity Low Low Medium Medium Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance Very Low Low Medium High Status Benefit Benefit Benefit Benefit Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium Impact of increased access to environmentally sensitive areas on the sustainability eco-tourism ventures Increased access to environmentally sensitive areas may occur in Section 6 and this access will be permanent. It is probable that this increased access will occur and that the intensity of the impact will be high. During construction the significance is low as the construction impacts are short term. Possible mitigation measures could include access control measures such as fencing and blockading in certain areas or placing restrictions on the number of people utilising conservation areas. However it is probable that access control will be difficult to implement and that access to sensitive areas will be enabled regardless and result in damage to environmentally sensitive areas such as harvesting of traditional plants, grazing and the spread of alien plants. Therefore with mitigation the impact on ecotourism ventures remains of high significance. Table 4.27 Section 6: Impact of Increased Access to environmentally sensitive areas on the sustainability of eco-tourism ventures IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Medium Medium High High Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance Low Low High High Status Cost Cost Cost Cost Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium 63

74 4.8.6 Existing N2 to Port Shepstone via Kokstad Increased growth in overnight tourists Based on the research there is medium confidence that the project will probably result in no increased growth in overnight tourists to the Existing N2 section, this impact will be permanent as there is no foreseeable way that the project may impact increased growth in the future. It is probable that the impact will occur and that it will be a cost to the study area in light of economic development and job creation. The intensity of the impact is medium and the significance of the impact is medium, as the tourism potential of the area will be decreased by the project. During construction the project will probably have no significance to this area, as there will be no construction on the section. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion, for example, route development, the negative impact to the Existing N2 Section could be averted with neutral impacts to the study area, which will have a low significance for the Existing N2 Section. Table 4.28 Existing N2 Section: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Medium Low Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance N/A N/A Medium Low Status Neutral Neutral Cost Neutral Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium Increase in growth in Tourism Products The increase in growth of tourism products will probably not occur in the Existing N2 Section. The intensity of this impact is medium. The impact is permanent as there is no foreseeable way that the project could impact growth in the future. The impact will be a cost to the local area. The significance of the impact will be medium. With mitigation measures such as tourism promotion the impact could be reduced and the growth in tourism products could increase which would be beneficial to the area. However there is low confidence that these mitigation measures will have an impact on tourism product growth therefore the significance of the project remains medium. 64

75 Table 4.29 Existing N2 Section: Impact of increased growth in tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Medium Medium Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance N/A N/A Medium Medium Status Neutral Neutral Cost Cost Confidence Medium Medium Medium Low Increase in number of Tourism Products As the growth in tourism products will not increase it is probable that there will be no increase in tourism products. This impact will be permanent and of low intensity as there is no foreseeable way that the project could impact positively on growth in the future. The impact will be a cost to the local area. The significance of the impact will be medium. With mitigation measures such as tourism promotion the increase in tourism products could occur, however as confidence in mitigation measures having an impact is low, the significance of the impact remains medium. Table 4.30 Existing N2 Section: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Low Low Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance N/A N/A Medium Medium Status Neutral Neutral Cost Cost Confidence Medium Medium Medium Low Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route It is probable that transit tourists on the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route through the Existing N2 section will not grow and this impact will be medium-term based on the new sections carrying capacity and the point at which traffic will spill over to the Existing N2 section. The intensity of the impact is low and the impact will be of cost to the area. The significance of the impact will be low for the Existing N2 Section. 65

76 With mitigation factors such as tourism promotion the impact could be reduced however there is low confidence that mitigation measures will have an impact therefore significance remains low. Table 4.31 Existing N2 Section: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Medium Term Medium Term Intensity Negligible Negligible Low Low Probability Probable Probable Probable Probable Significance N/A N/A Low Low Status Neutral Neutral Cost Cost Confidence Medium Medium Medium Low Section 7 Mthamvuna River to Isipingo Interchange Increase in growth in overnight tourists Our projections show that the project will definitely not result in stronger growth in overnight tourists to Section 7 and that growth rates in this section will continue at standard levels. This impact is permanent, as it cannot be foreseen that the project will ever lead to an increase in the growth of overnight tourists to Section 7. It will be a low intensity impact on the study area as the area will continue to grow at standard growth rates which are acceptable for a mature tourism destination such as Section 7. The significance of the impact is low, as Section 7 is a well-developed tourism destination, which will grow at levels similar to the national tourism growth rates. As no road construction will occur in this section the impacts of construction will have no significance. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion and further product development the growth in overnight tourists to Section 7 could be improved to the status of the impact to beneficial. It is probable that these optimisation strategies will occur, however as plans for KZN focus more on the northern areas this is stated with medium confidence. 66

77 Table 4.32 Section 7: Impact of increased growth in overnight tourists IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Low Low Probability Definite Definite Definite Probable Significance N/A N/A Very Low Very Low Status Neutral Neutral Neutral Benefit Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium Increase in growth in tourism products Due to the increased standard growth in overnight tourists to Section7 there will definitely be no increase in the growth of tourism products above standard levels due to the project. This impact is permanent, as it cannot be foreseen that the project will ever lead to an increase in the growth of tourism products in Section 7. With optimisation strategies such as tourism promotion the growth in tourism products in Section 7 could be improved to the status beneficial and the significance low. It is probable that these optimisation strategies will occur, however as plans for KZN focus more on the northern areas this is stated with medium confidence. Table 4.33 Section 7: Impact of increased growth in tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Negligible Low Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance N/A N/A N/A Low Status Neutral Neutral Neutral Benefit Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium Increase in the number of tourism products As with the growth in overnight visitors and tourism products, it is unlikely that the project will lead to an increase in the number of tourism products in Section 7. This lack of an increase in the number of tourism products will be permanent and it is certain that it will definitely occur. With mitigation measures such as tourism promotion and further tourism product development the status could be improved to beneficial and the significance to low. 67

78 There is medium confidence that these mitigation measures will occur as product development is largely focused on the northern parts of KwaZulu Natal. Table 4.34 Section 7: Impact of increase in the number of tourism products IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Permanent Permanent Intensity Negligible Negligible Negligible Low Probability Definite Definite Definite Definite Significance N/A N/A N/A Low Status Neutral Neutral Neutral Benefit Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route Transit tourists on the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route through Section 7 will definitely grow. This impact will be medium term, as the road reaches its maximum carrying capacity and it is probable that this growth could be maintained for this period. The intensity of the impact will be low to Section 7 in terms of the development of transit facilities such as tourist shops, petrol stations, etc since Section 7 is a mature tourism destination and the impact will be less beneficial than for the other sections. The significance of the impact will be low as facilities for transit tourists is well developed in Section 7. Optimisation measures such as tourism promotion and product development could result in higher than standard growth in the area. This would probably endure in the medium term although because the area is not a primary focus of strategic plans confidence that mitigation will have an impact is medium. Table 4.35 Section 7: Impact of Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route IMPACT CRITERIA CONSTRUCTION OPERATION Without Mitigation With Mitigation Without Mitigation With Mitigation Extent Study Area Study Area Study Area Study Area Duration Short Term Short Term Medium Term Medium Term Intensity Negligible Negligible Low Low Probability Definite Definite Definite Probable Significance N/A N/A Low Low Status Neutral Neutral Neutral Benefit Confidence Medium Medium Medium Medium 68

79 4.9 Mitigation and Optimisation Tourism Promotion and tourism product development One of the most important optimisation measures for enhancing the beneficial impacts of the project is tourism promotion and marketing. However the optimisation strategies required falls outside the responsibility of the project i.e. the toll road concession cannot be expected to undertake tourism promotion/ marketing of the study area. The following organisations and government agencies are responsible on some level for tourism marketing, development and promotion. National: SATourism SANParks DEAT Provincial: EC Tourism KZN Tourism KZN Wildlife EC Parks EC Department of Economic Affairs and Tourism KZN Department of Economic Affairs and Tourism Local: Section 1: Amatole District Municipality; Buffalo City Municipality; Mbashe Municipality; Mnquma Municipality; Section 2: Amatola District Municipality; Mnquma Municipality; OR Thambo District Municipality; King Sabata Dalinyebo Municipality; Section 3 & 4: OR Thambo District Municipality; King Sabata Dalinyebo Municipality; Port St Johns Municipality (Port St Johns Tourism); Nyandeni Local Municipality; Section 5: OR Thambo District Municipality; 69

80 Port St Johns Municipality; Section 6: OR Thambo District Municipality; Quakeni Municipality; Mbizana Municipality; Existing N2 Section: Alfred Nzo District Municipality, Ugu District Municipality Umuziwabantu Local Municipality Sisonke District Municipality Greater Kokstad Municipality Section 7: Ethekweni Municipality Ugu District Municipality Hibiscus Coast Local Municipality Although marketing the area is not the responsibility of SANRAL, marketing of attractions which form part of the road, in particular the bridges may assist in promoting higher visitor numbers to the area. A tourism product can be defined as an ensemble of tangible and intangible components including: Tourism resources (natural and cultural assets) and attractions; Basic facilities and infrastructure (airports, roads, trains, etc); Tourism infrastructure and services (accommodation, catering, transport); Leisure activities (things to do and see); Image and symbolic values (to do with development, lifestyle, self esteem, status, etc) This offers benefits that may draw certain type of consumers, as it appeals to their specific travel motivations and needs. With all these elements, tourism product development would therefore require partnerships with a large number of authorities and stakeholders including those mentioned above Tourism Skills Promotion Tourism skills promotion is important for optimising tourism growth in the area as according to IDP plans as well as the plans stipulated in the Wild Coast SDI, the focus of tourism development will be community based eco-tourism. Part of the project concessionaire s obligation will be to provide skills in consultation with the community and tourism and hospitality related skills should be provided through this. 70

81 4.9.3 Creation of Feeder Routes In order to optimise the success of the impact of the N2 Wild Coast Toll Road, such as improved access to the study area, secondary routes need to be a key priority, as the majority of tourism destinations in the Wild Coast depend on these. SANRAL could take up the initiative to improve access to coastal destinations through the improvement of secondary routes. These projects could be a basis for the development and employment of local communities. In both the KwaZulu Natal and Eastern Cape portions of the study area, signage to destinations off the route need to be improved as well Minimising impacts on Environmentally Sensitive Areas in order to sustain eco-tourism SANParks, DEAT and initiatives such as the Wild Coast Conservation and Sustainable Development Project implemented by Eastern Cape Parks are responsible for conservation management in the Wild Coast. However SANRAL has a sustainable development mandate to fulfil and needs to assist in mitigating impacts by liaising carefully with these stakeholders as to where access points to the coast should be located and how sensitive areas in close proximity to the road can be managed. Municipalities also play a role in this, particularly in ensuring and monitoring the appropriate land uses for sensitive areas Mitigation measures for other specialist studies Mitigation measures for other specialist studies are relevant to the impacts on tourism. Measures to reduce visual impacts, impacts on the biophysical, social and economic environment need to be considered in order for tourism impacts to be minimised Monitoring and Review SANRAL has no mandate to keep track of the growth in the tourism industry. However it is important that public participation be maintained with tourism stakeholders particularly where valuable tourism resources such as beaches, estuaries and waterfalls may be affected. This could be done through the organisations mentioned above, however individual businesses and establishments need to be approached to ensure representation. 5 DISCUSSION 5.1 Significant Impacts Growth in tourism is generally considered positive in an area in desperate need of economic development. While costs to the environment through tourism growth are a 71

82 probability, these costs can be better managed through sustainable forms of tourism development than other forms of economic development such as industrial development. Costs to the environment in Section 6 of the route are of a high significance but can be mitigated. Costs to the bypassed existing N2 section can also be mitigated through tourism investment and development although it is likely that the impacts will remain of medium significance with mitigation. These impacts will affect areas in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu Natal. Parts of KwaZulu Natal will be more severely affected as they have greater volumes of tourism products currently. Enabling tourism growth in the parts of the study area that are beneficially impacted through the project is arguably a more important strategy for regional economic growth than maintaining the status quo. 5.2 Conflicting Development Philosophies The specialist believes that there is space for more intensive tourism developments on the wild coast as well as eco-tourism enterprise. This is particularly the case if the Pondoland National Park plans go ahead, but with the number of nature reserves in the area eco-tourism will still be viable with or without the national park. Intensive tourism developments should be built along sustainable development principles. The location of intensive tourism developments should be planned carefully in order for them to pose less of a threat to the environment. Development guidelines for tourism should follow sustainable development principles regardless of the size of developments to minimise impacts on the environment. Most of these development control measures are beyond the scope of the project. However SANRAL s involvement in the location of possible future access roads to the coast as well as access roads to waterfalls and other attractions should be considered in light of the access that is enabled for tourism enterprise. SANRAL should also work with municipalities and communities to ensure they are aware of the possible impacts of uncontrolled tourism development and have plans in place to manage tourism developments. 5.3 Mitigation, monitoring and evaluation One of the chief optimisation measures for tourism growth in the area is training of local people in tourism skills. It should be noted that as the Wild Coast area is very underdeveloped in regard to tourism, the impact of the project would be of greater significance to this area, in terms of economic development and job creation. We recommend that the concession focus tourism skills training in these less developed areas. As the KwaZulu-Natal south coast is a mature tourism destination, the impact of training will be less significant. Furthermore it is important that the training providers be accredited and that performance of training providers in terms of levels of training, 72

83 numbers of people trained and the appropriateness of the skills they are trained in is monitored. Further, mitigation measures recommended by other specialists that will minimise any negative impacts on the biophysical environment should be adhered to in order to protect valuable tourism resources. 6. CONCLUSION When excluding other factors that lead to growth in the tourism industry, it is projected that the project will result in additional tourists to the study area over the forecast period. This additional tourism demand could lead to the development of 1075 additional rooms/ units. The construction period is likely to have significantly less impacts on tourism than the operational phase of the project therefore the operational impacts are summarised as follows: 6.1 Increase in growth in overnight tourists The tourism impact study shows that the project will definitely result in stronger growth in overnight tourists to Section 1 to 6 (East London to Mthamvuna River), but this increase in growth will be limited to the short-term (5 years or less) as growth rates return to standard growth levels after 4 years of full operation of the project. Growth in overnight tourists will likely be adversely affected in the Existing N2 section (To Port Shepstone via Kokstad) and this impact will be permanent. Growth in overnight tourists to Section 7 (Mthamvuna River to Isipingo) will grow at standard growth rates and will not be influenced by the project i.e. it is very unlikely that the project will result in an increase in growth in overnight tourists to Section 7 resulting in a permanent impact. The impact will be low intensity and be beneficial for Sections 1-6 in light of economic development and job creation. In Section 7 the fact that the impact will not occur is a low intensity impact with a neutral status as Section 7 is a mature tourism destination, which will continue to grow at standard growth rates. In the Existing N2 section the intensity of the impact is medium and the project is a cost on the area in terms of tourism development and the number of tourists that will travel through the area during project operation. In Section 1 to 6, the significance of the impact is low, as the increase in growth in overnight tourists to the Section 1 to 6 will only result in short- to medium term effects. 73

84 For Section 7 the significance of the impact is low as it is a mature tourism destination. The significance of the impact is medium in the Existing N2 Section as the project represents a loss of tourism opportunities. With optimisation measures such as tourism promotion, and tourism product development the higher than standard growth in overnight tourists to Section 1 to 6 could be prolonged to be more beneficial to the study area, which will be have a medium significance for Section 1 to 6. For Section 7 optimisation measures such as tourism promotion could improve the impact from neutral to beneficial, however the significance of this change is low as it is already a well-promoted and accessible destination. In the existing N2 section tourism promotion could reduce the adverse affects to growth. However the optimisation measures required falls outside the responsibility of the project i.e. the N2 Wild Coast Toll Road Concession cannot be expected to undertake tourism promotion/ marketing of the study area. 6.2 Increase in growth in tourism products Due to the increased growth in overnight tourists to Section 1 to 6, there will definitely be an increase in the growth of tourism products in these sections, but it will definitely not occur in Section 7 and probably not occur in the Existing N2 section (since there was no increase in growth in overnight tourists in the former and a decrease in overnight tourism growth in the latter section). The increase in growth in tourism products in Section 1 to 6 will be limited to the shortterm as growth rates return to standard growth rates in the medium to long-term. In Section 7 and the Existing N2 Section, the impact will be permanent, as it cannot be foreseen that the project will ever lead to an increase in the growth of tourism products in Section 7. As with the increase in the growth in overnight tourists, this impact will be a benefit to Sections 1-6 and will be a low intensity impact. For Section 7 it is certain that the increased growth in overnight tourists will definitely not occur and that it will be a low intensity impact on the study area. The significance of the increase in growth in tourism products is low, for Sections 1 to 6 as the impact will only occur in the shortterm and it is low in Section 7 as this section is a well-developed tourism destination, which will grow at levels similar to the national growth rates. With optimisation measures such as tourism promotion, and tourism product development the impact could be prolonged (higher than standard growth rates could be maintained) and be more beneficial with a medium significance to Section 1 to 6, 74

85 while in Section 7 the status of the impact could be improved to be beneficial with a low significance. The increase in growth of tourism products will probably not occur in the Existing N2 Section. The intensity of this impact is medium. The impact is permanent as there is no foreseeable way that the project could impact growth in the future. The impact will be a cost to the local area. The significance of the impact will be medium. With mitigation measures such as tourism promotion the costs could be reduced and the growth in tourism products could occur, however there is low confidence that these mitigation measures will result in a positive impact therefore the significance of the project impact remains the same. 6.3 Increase in the number of tourism products The growth in tourism products will definitely lead to an increase in the number of tourism products in Section 1 to 6 (East London to Mthamvuna River) and this will be a benefit to the area in terms of economic development and job creation. While it is definite that the numbers of tourism products in Section 7 (Mthamvuna River to Isipingo) will not increase and this will be a neutral impact. In the Existing N2 section it is probable that there will be no increase in the number of tourism products and that this will be a cost to the area in terms of economic development and job creation. In Section 1 to 6 the intensity of the impact will be medium and the significance medium with optimisation measures the significance could be increased to high however due to issues such as development restrictions the confidence that these mitigation measures will have an impact is reduced to medium. For Section 7 the impact will not occur without mitigation, with mitigation the intensity of the impact will be low and the significance will be low. In the Existing N2 Section the intensity of the impact will be low and the significance medium. 6.4 Increase in growth in transit tourists on a KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route It is anticipated by the technical team that traffic on the N2 route will increase by: 4,5% between ; 4,0% between 2010 and 2020; 3,0% between 2020 and 2030; and 2,0% between 2030 and Given that domestic tourism will grow at around 3.5% per annum and that the majority of the source market in the study area is domestic, it is safe to assume that transit tourists on the KwaZulu-Natal/ Eastern Cape/ Western Cape route will definitely grow and that the growth rate may be around 2-3% per annum. 75

86 This impact will be medium-term (between 5 to 20 years), i.e. transit tourists to all sections i.e. Section 1-6 will continue to grow at 3% per annum until the road s maximum carrying capacity is reached. It is probable that this growth could be maintained in the short- to medium-term for all sections. Since Section 1 to 6 is less developed that Section 7 the impact will be beneficial to Section 1 to 6, while it will be neutral for Section 7 and a cost for the Existing N2 Section. The significance of the impact will be medium for Section 1 to 6 and with mitigation factors such as tourism promotion the significance could be increased to high i.e. the impact could have a permanent rather than just long-term effect. For Section 7 the significance of the impact will be low and for the Existing N2 section, low but with mitigation measures this could be improved to very low. 6.5 Impact of increased access to environmentally sensitive areas on the sustainability of eco-tourism ventures Increased access to environmentally sensitive areas will probably occur in Sections 3, 4, 5 and 6. This access will be permanent and a cost in terms of maintaining tourism resources. In the relevant sections the significance is medium but with mitigation strategies such as access control and as mitigation measures such as access control are unlikely to be effective, the significance remains medium with mitigation. 6.6 Overall Conclusion The tourism impact assessment shows that the N2 Wild Coast Toll Road project will definitely have a positive impact on growth in the tourism industry in the areas adjoining the proposed route of the road. It is certain that this impact will definitely occur in the short-term and given that the majority of the existing tourism products are in KwaZulu-Natal, the impact on the tourism industry will be of medium intensity and low significance to the whole study area. With optimisation measures such as tourism promotion, and the creation of secondary coastal roads, the impact could be improved to have a medium significance. Access to environmentally sensitive areas will definitely occur as a result of the project. This could have an impact on eco-tourism resources and opportunities and the significance of this impact is high. With mitigation measures such as access control the significance could be reduced to medium. We recommend that mitigation measures with regard to protection of the environment that are proposed in other specialist reports be adhered to. The impacts to the towns along the Existing N2 section will be costly and it is probable that these impacts will occur. With mitigation such as the promotion of the route as a tourism route and investment in destination based tourism infrastructure these impacts could be mitigated however this is not the responsibility of the toll road concession. 76

87 The views of tourism stakeholders reveal that the Coastal Mzamba Route (Route H see Annexure A) would be a preferable alternative as it contains more of the Pondoland National Park east of the road and is perceived to pose less risk to the coastal zone. However other specialist studies have revealed that the SANRAL preferred route poses less of a risk to the biophysical environment upon which ecotourism ultimately depends. 77

88 ANNEXURE A

89 Annexure A

90

91 Alternative Route:

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