MACRO ECONOMIC PROSPECTS OF AFRICA

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1 Main Sources: MACRO ECONOMIC PROSPECTS OF AFRICA Africa s Macroeconomic prospects, AfDB, OECD, UNDP (2015) World Bank Statistics (2014) Africa s Economic Growth Africa s growth was 4.2% in 2012, 3.5% in 2013 and 3.9% in Africa s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to strengthen to 4.5% in 2015 and 5% in 2016 The 2014 growth was about one percentage point lower than expected, the global economy remained weaker and some African countries saw severe domestic problems A S S I S T. P R O F. Ö Z G E Ö Z G E N, D O K U Z E Y L Ü L U N I V E R S I T Y, F A C U L T Y O F B U S I N E S S D E P A R T M E N T O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L B U S I N E S S A N D T R A D E At 3.9 per cent growth in 2014, East and South Asia are the only region that grew faster than Africa, at 5.9 per cent Regional Differences in Economic Growth There are surprising regional differences. West Africa achieved relatively high growth of 6% in 2014 despite its battle with the Ebola virus. Nigeria s growth of 6.3% came mainly from non-oil sectors showing that the economy is diversifying. But Southern Africa s growth fell below 3% as the key South African economy only grew by 1.5%. Excluding South Africa, sub-saharan Africa s economy will grow by 5.2% in 2015 and 6.2% in

2 Africa s Growth By Region Central Africa GDP Growth: 4.1% (2013); 5.6% (2014) Economic conditions show differences between countries The Central African Republic is affected by a political and security crisis Central African Republic 1.0 % (2014) In Equatorial Guinea GDP continues to fall due to lower oil production Equatorial Guinea -3.1% (2014) All other countries remain on a relatively high growth path. Democratic Rep. Of Congo 9.0% (2014) CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC AYTAÇ Ö ZT ÜRK Manovo-Gounda St. Floris National Park It includes to the list of UNESCO World Heritage Sites 2

3 Macroeconomic Data, 2014 Official language of Central African Republic is French Central African Republic remains between Congo and Chad basins Central African Republic s capital city is Bangui Population is approximately 4.8 million The Central African CFA franc,code is XAF, is the currency of Central African Republic. GDP GDP Growth Rate 1.0 % GDP Per Capita $ 371 Unemployment rate 7.6 % $ 1.78 billion Inflation Rate % Crops Production (Cotton, coffee, tobacco, cassava,manioc, tapioca, yams, corn, bananas; timber) %85 of population work in agriculture sector Main sectors -Agriculture dominant country -Industry is limited with textile and low level manufacturing -Soft drinks, soap and plastic goods industries such as manufacturing and food industries are developed. -Diamond is the major source of revenue for country Douala-Bangui Road Main Problems of Central African Republic Douala Largest city of Cameroon and, home of Cameroon's largest port and its major international airport Food insecurity (28% of population is effected) Infrastructure Security Political instability BUT!!! 5.4% growth expected in

4 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO O Ğ UZ H A N Y A Ğ ız Basic Information about Democratic Republic of Congo Macroeconomic Data of Democratic Republic of Congo Region: Central Africa Official Language: French Capital City: Kinshasa Currency: Congolese Franc (CDF) Population: GDP: $32.69 Billion GDP Per Capita: $435 GDP Growth Rate: 9.0% Inflation: 1.6% Unemployment Rate: 8.9% Main Source of GDP: Coltan and Diamond Distribution of main sectors: Mining (copper, cobalt, gold, diamonds, coltan, zinc, tin, tungsten). Source: World Bank 4

5 ANGOLA ANGOLA SERHAT TEZGEN ANGOLA ANGOLA, 2014 Angola has a population of 24,383,301 is a country in Southern Africa is bordered by Namibia to the south, the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the north, Zambia to the east, and the Atlantic Ocean to west. Portuguese is the official language of the country. Capital and largest city is Luanda Currency:Kwanza GDP :$ billion GDP Per capita :$ 5,423 GDP Growth Rate :3.9 % Inflation :11,66 Unemployment Rate :26 Distribution of GDP by sector: agriculture 10.2% industry 61.4% services 28.4% Oil production and its supporting activities contribute about 45 per cent of the nation s gross domestic product and over 95 per cent of exports.!!!angola will suffer from significantly lower oil prices Sources: 5

6 East Africa GDP Growth: below 5% (2013); over 7% (2014) East Africa will be the continent s fastest growing region in 2014 Highest increase in FDI Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda have relatively higher growth Their growth is more driven by services and construction Macroeconomic Prospects of Africa: Ethiopia ÖMER ŞAKRAK Ethiopia M i n e r a l s t h a t a r e f o u n d i n e t h i o p i a a r e a s f o l l o w s : g o l d ( h i g h e s t v a l u e t o t h e c o u n t r y ), p l a t i n u m, t a n t a l i t e, i r o n, n i c k e l, z i n c, l e a d, q u a r t z, m a r b l e, g r a n i t e, g r a p h i t e a n d m o r e. R e s o u r c e : ( h t t p : / / b l o g s. N e l s o n. W i s c. E d u / e s / m i n i n g / ) M i n i n g a r e a i n E t h i o p i a Population:98,942,102 (aproximately 1.35% of the world population) ( Languages: Oromigna (33,8% of the population), Amharic (official language), Somali (6,25% of the population), Sidamo (4,84% of the population), Wolaytta (2,21% of the population), Gurage(2,01% of the population), Afar (1,74% of the population) English, Arabic and Italian are the widely spoken foreign languages. ( Capital City: Addis Ababa Currency: The Ethiopian Birr (1 USD= ETB / 14/10/ :09) 6

7 Macroeconomic Data of Ethiopia The International Monetary Fund (IMF) ranks Ethiopia as among the five fastest growing economies in the world. GDP (USD billion): 54,8 (December 2014) GDP Annual Growth Rate: 10,3 % (December 2013) GDP Per Capita PPP: 1432 (December 2014) GDP from Agriculture: 252 ETB Billion (Aprox. 12,02 billion USD) GDP from Manufacturing: 89,6 ETB Billion (Aprox. 4,27 billion USD) GDP from Services: 289 ETB Billion (Aprox billion USD) Inflation Rate: 11.9% (September 2015) Down from 39.2% in 2011 Unemployment Rate: 17.4% of the population (December 2014) ****According to worldbank official website the unemployment rate of the country is 5.7% of the total labor force (2013)**** From the Guardian, August 2015 Ethiopia is one of Africa s fastest-growing economies, with nearly double-digit growth every year for the last decade, but failed rains have had devastating consequences for food supplies for its 98 million people. Kenya s wildlife attracts many visitors to the country s national parks. KENYA M E H M E T B A T U H A N Ş E R M E T The economy slowed in the third quarter of 2014, partly due to a sharp drop in tourism following terrorist attacks in the country. 7

8 Kenya Macroeconomic Data of Kenya Region: East Africa Official Language: Swahili, English Capital City: Nairobi Currency: Kenyan Shilling (KEN) Population: million (2014) GDP: 60.9 billion USD (2014) GDP Per Capita: 1,358 (2014) GDP Growth Rate: 5.3% Inflation: 5.97 % (Sep/15) Unemployment Rate: 40% (2013) Main Source of GDP: 29.3% in Agriculture, 17.4% in Industry, 53.3% in Service (2013 est.) Distribution of Main Sector: Agriculture, forestry, fishing, manufacturing, wholesale and retail, financial service, tourism. North Africa Libya is highly unstable Its oil production declined again in the first half of Despite some recovery in the second half, growth was again negative in 2014 and prospects are highly uncertain. By contrast, Egypt and Tunisia greater political and economic stability is helping to improve business confidence. Algeria s oil production increased for the first time in eight years and is boosting growth together with the non-oil sector. In Morocco, agricultural production declined in 2014 LIBYA L E M A N C H O L A K O V

9 OIL PRODUCTION IN LIBYA Libya Libya Region: Northern Africa Official Language: Arabic Capital City: Tripoli Currency: Libyan Dinar Population: 6,411,776 GDP: $41 billion GDP per capita: $6,569 GDP growth rate: -24% Inflation: 2.8% Unemployment Rate: 30% Main Source of GDP: agriculture: 2% industry: 45.8% services: 52.2% Agriculture products: wheat, barley, olives, dates, citrus, vegetables, peanuts, soybeans; cattle Industries: petroleum, petrochemicals, aluminum, iron and steel, food processing, textiles, handicrafts, cement 9

10 Southern Africa Growth slowed to below 3% in 2014 Relatively poor growth in South Africa. The key economy s growth fell to 1.5% in 2014 It suffered from weakened demand in trading partners lower prices for its raw materials, labor unrest and electricity shortages South Africa M E R V E ESEN South Africa and Mandela South Africa... This picture belong to Nelson Mandela who served as a president of South Africa from 1994 to I choosed this photo because Mandela has a role that can not be underestimated about the South Africa. He was the country's first black chief executive, and the first elected in a representative democratic election. He stand against anti-aportheid groups and fight for discrimination, poorty and inequality. As a result of his effort ; he won Nobel Peace Prize in 1993, his name remove from USA terror list in 2008 and he always called as Father of the Africa. Unfortunately he has passed away in 5th of December, South Africa has three capital city as ; Pretoria as Executive Capital Bloemfontein as Judicial Capital Cape Town as Legislative Capital South Africa has eleven offical languages, Despite the fact that English is recognised as the language of commerce and science, South African generally use their local language. Population of South Africa ; 53,139,528 (2014) South Africa s national currency is South African Rand (zad) 10

11 Macroeconomic Data of South Africa West Africa GDP ( current US$ ) ; $ Billion (2014) GDP Per Capita ; $ (2014) GDP Growth Rate (Annual % ) ; 1.5% (2014) ; 2% (2015) ; 2.5% (2016 P.) GDP by Sector ; Agriculture ; % 2.5 Service ; % 65.9 Industry; % 31.6 Inflation ; 4.51 % ( August 2015) ; 5.9 % (2016 P.) Unemployment Rate ;24.9 % ( 2014, total) Resource; World Bank Data s African Development Bank, South Africa Report 2015 GDP Growth 6% in 2014!!! Ebola Crisis Liberia and Sierra Leone are most affected countries Growth of Liberia 6.8% 1.8% Growth of Sierra Leone 13.8% 6.8% Nigeria, Benin, Niger, Cote d Ivoire, Togo have relatively higher growth Slow growth in Gambia Economic Impact of EBOLA Economic Impact of EBOLA Human hardship and high economic costs of recovery 25,000 reported cases & 10,000 reported deaths (by March, 2015, WHO) Cut production in most sectors Hotel and restaurant services have been heavily affected Airlenes cancelling services Ships have been re-routed and increasing shipping costs Increase in insuarance costs Employment and incomes have decreased Long term impact: Lowering investments in private and public sectors 11

12 Nigeria Nigeria Location: Western Africa, bordering the Gulf of Guinea, between Benin and Cameroon Official language: English Capital city: Abuja Population: 181,562,056 Currency: Nigerian Naira Nigeria AFRICA S BIGGEST ECONOMIES (2014) GDP: $568 billion (2014) GDP per capita: $3,203 (2014) GDP growth rate: 6.3% (2014 est.) Unemployment rate: 23.9% Inflation rate: 8.1% Main source of GDP: petroleum and petroleum products Top crops: cocoa, rubber peanuts, cotton, palm oil, corn, rice Distribution of main sectors: agriculture: 20.6% industry: 25.6% services: 53.8% GDPs (Billion Dolar) 22. NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA EGYPT ALGERIA ANGOLA

13 Macroeconomic Prospects of Africa S A F A K A L A Y C I I used this photo to represent Egypt because it is famous with its pyramids in all over the world. EGYPT Total Area: 1,002,450 sq. km Region: North Africa Capital city: Cairo Currency: Egyptian pound (EGP) Official Language: Arabic Total population: 87.1 million(2014) Macroeconomic Datas of Egypt GDP: 286 billion (U.S. Dollars) GDP per capita: 3,723.7 dollars GDP growth rate: 2.2% Unemployment rate: 13.9% of total labor force Inflation: 13.5% Distribution of main sectors; Agriculture: 14.6% (cotton, rice, corn, wheat, beans, fruits, vegetables, sheep, goats) MAIN COTTON PRODUCER Industry:38.9% (textiles, food processing, tourism, chemicals, hydrocarbons, construction, cement) Services: 46.5% 13

14 SMART VILLAGES of EGYPT BUT!!! Africa s Economy is effected by fragile international environment country specific problems Two years after the Arab revolutions, political and social tensions continue in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia unemployment which remains high in the region and political transition which is slow and contentious political and military conflict in Mali. In South Africa, growth was dampened by the global slowdown and labor unrest Agriculture Agriculture remains Africa s main source of employment with around 60% of its labor force employed in the sector share in GDP is much smaller, accounting for an average of 25%, indicating its relatively low level of productivity and earnings In Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea- Bissau, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Rwanda, between 80% and 90% of the total workforce are engaged in agriculture. 14

15 Agriculture Tourism Cotton, Coffee, cocoa Tourism, another important source of employment, continued to increase in several countries, but was held back in others. Cape Verde, Seychelles, Gambia, Kenya and Uganda recorded increasing tourist arrivals Seychelles Mert Deniz Günaydın The photo is chosen since it displays the condition of Seychelles in a figurative sense - i.e. charming, welcoming, paradise-like; yet unadulterated a great deal. 15

16 Basic Information Macroeconomic Data Languages: Seychellois Creole (Official) 89.1%, English (Official) 5.7%, French (Official) %0.7, Other 3.8%, Unspecified 1.4% Region: Archipelago in Indian Ocean, Northeast of Madagascar. (Coordinants:4 35 S, E) Ethnic Groups: Seychellois Creole, French, African, Indian, Chinese, and Arab Religions: Roman Catholic 76.2%, Protestant 10.6%, other Christian 2.4%, Hindu 2.4%, Muslim 1.6%, other non-christian 1.1%, unspecified 4.8%, none 0.9% Population: 92,430 (June 2015 est.) Capital City: Victoria (pop. 26,000) Currency: Seychellois Rupee (SCR) GDP (Official Exchange Rate): $1.42 Billion GDP (PPP): $2.40 Billion (2014) GDP Growth Rate: 2.9% (2014), 6.6% (2013), 6% (2012) GDP per capita (PPP): $25,600 (in 2014 USD) Inflation Rate: 4% (2014), 3% (2013) Unemployment Rate: 3% Sources of Aggregate Income: Agriculture 3%, Industry 14%, Services 83.1% Major Contribution to GDP: Tourism Agriculture Products: Coconut, Cinnamon, Vanilla, Sweet Potatoes, Cassava, Copra, Bananas. Industrial Production: Fishing, Beverages Oil and Mining Sector Oil and mining sectors have remained the main engines of growth in resource-rich countries Angola, Gabon and particularly in Libya Nigeria, Africa s largest oil producer gas discoveries found along the coast of Tanzania and Mozambique, there is large potential for future foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. East Africa is shifting from a natural resource-poor region to a resource-rich region. 16

17 Manufacturing Sector The manufacturing sector in Africa is relatively small with an average contribution of only about 10% to GDP. 17